Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll caps a weekend of status quo by-election results with a status quo poll result.

I’d have thought Newspoll might have had the week off, but The Australian reports that the latest instalment has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 7%. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 48%, Bill Shoten is steady on 32% and up one to 57%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 48-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1704.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. Vogon Poet @ #181 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 10:14 am

    Votes/%/ Swing
    SSELL, Lloyd Thomas John Liberal Democrats 1,681 1.97 +1.97
    SALEAM, Jim Australia First Party 684 0.80 +0.80
    BELL, Gregory Labour DLP 990 1.16 +1.16
    PERKINS, Jackie Independent 2,270 2.65 +2.65
    NOONAN, James Science Party 926 1.08 +1.08
    STEPHEN, Matthew Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 13,623 15.93 +6.51
    REECE, John Australian People’s Party 399 0.47 +0.47
    LAMB, Susan Australian Labor Party 34,186 39.98 +4.60
    RUTHENBERG, Trevor Liberal National Party of Queensland 25,309 29.59 -9.42
    VERRIER, Blair Ann Australian Country Party 1,344 1.57 +1.57
    BEHRENS, Gavin The Greens 4,106 4.80 +0.41

    Peg, Looking at Longman, after the LNP, the greens got the smallest swing out of all. If there’s a mood for change, the greens certainly haven’t captured it have they ?

    Vogon

    Longman is NOT Greens territory. It gets about 6% and maybe is growing slightly with demographic change. The Greens put in very, very little effort in Longman. More like the old days when they first started to run in many seats with a pack of very nice but dozy booth workers.

    Your point remains. The Greens are not capturing the current mood for change. Part of this is of course
    1. the 2010 was on a high due to the RGR wars. Many ALP defectors to Greens then, plus the collapse of the NSW ALP. So 2010 is an artifical benchmark

    2. The Greens have been outplayed by Labor who have cut them out of the left wing”progressive” vote. The Greens no longer are certain of the gay vote or even the”green” vote, given Labor’s reasonably good stand on climate change.Indeed in the seat of Brisbane lst federal election you had the bizarre situation that the ALP and the LNP candidates were both openly gay and only the Green was possibly straight- it was not an issue for here unlike the other two who made a big deal of it. Euthanasia stuff is going the same way.

    3. The Greens actually grew fast and started to be seen as “mainstream” thereby losing that section of the voters who always want something “new”. There seem to be about 5% of them. The Greens are no longer the exciting “new” so this lot go to the Science party or LDP or PUP or whoever is the thing of the moment.

    4. The current “mood for change” is different from the mood 10 years ago. Then it was an optimistic mood for change – middle class driven and progressive. Now it is angrier and more driven by those who are scared and struggling. Hence the rise of PHON and due a return to the now far more “left” views of the ALP an general return to an older Labor for the ordinary person sort of view.

    5. Infighting within the Greens has not helped.

    6.Fairly lacklustre leadership within the Greens.

  2. Jen

    Thats why I said apparently. I don’t agree with her figures either. Maybe if she is talking about up front IPA people disclosing they were IPA it would be accurate.

  3. hopefully turnbull realises that if racist dog-whistling/bull-horning doesn’t work in Longman then it is not worth persisting with elsewhere. I reckon shorten could win support by urging the PM to stop trying to divide the country on race-based beat ups. He might even urge Frydenberg and Leeser to caution Turnbull and Dutton about where racist scare-mongering can lead.

  4. Sohar @ #250 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 10:31 am

    I see the Guardian has shut down comments on the by-elections, but is very happy to promote an ‘Exclusive’ with its friend Frydenberg.

    Just had a peek at Murphy’s tweeter feed, close to half her recent ones are shots at punters who don’t see her brilliance as they should.

  5. Pegasus

    On the Greens. The fact is like it or not Di Natale is a poor leader. Not being visible is giving the narrative to other parties and a drop as a result in the Green vote.

    See Braddon. Someone who could have been a Green ran as an independent.

    The Greens need a strong leader. They will not get a visionary like Bob Brown again for a while. However with all her faults with Christine Milne in charge there were no doubts the Greens were for the environment

  6. Barney in Go Dau @ #198 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 10:32 am

    These would be people left over from the old visa classes that have been replaced.

    Under the new temporary work visas many of them would not be entitled to apply for citizenship.

    And many of them would. That’s what a “bridging” visa is intended for. And we have issued an additional 40,000 of them this year. Of course, not all of the recipients will proceed to permanent residency. But just off the top of my head, I’d estimate that the number that do would – by some odd coincidence – be just exactly enough to compensate for Dutton’s “cut” 🙂

  7. jenauthor

    It’s possible that IPA ‘members’ on The Drum were masquerading as something else so that in Julia’s eyes they didn’t represent IPA. Perhaps Julia isn’t as aware as we are about the history of some – for example, G Downer.

  8. guytaur @ #201 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 7:35 am

    Barney

    For the right 457 visas are great. Two birds with one stone. Cheap Labor to undercut Australian workers and lots of visible different faces to bang the hordes of immigration drum.

    I wasn’t commenting on the rights and wrongs, I was just pointing out that with the change of visa classes this is probably the last and only chance that these people will be able to apply for citizenship.

  9. lizzie @ #208 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 10:39 am

    jenauthor

    It’s possible that IPA ‘members’ on The Drum were masquerading as something else so that in Julia’s eyes they didn’t represent IPA. Perhaps Julia isn’t as aware as we are about the history of some – for example, G Downer.

    I was about to make the same point. I don’t watch “The Drum” except by accident, but I’m fairly sure I’ve seen Georgina “IPA” Downer on there a couple of times.

  10. Watching the weekend evolve, beyond any specific policy (although policy is the ultimate manifestation) I think what I detect is seeping into the minds of punters is an appreciation and respect for the sincerity and depth that is Labor and Shorten in contrast to the self-interested and shallow ratbaggery of the Cons.

  11. Newspoll would have interviewed the vast majority of people before the by-election polls closed on Saturday night. At that stage “Kill Bill” and “Labor lies” were being screamed at fever pitch by the LNP and the whole MSM.

    These Newspoll respondents across Australia would not have experienced Labor campaigns in the by-election seats and therefore would have seen nothing of the Labor campaigning to rebut “Kill Bill” and “Labor lies”.

    If the Newspoll were conducted after the by-elections (with Turnbull publicly humiliated) the result could have been quite different.

  12. lizzie @ #89 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 6:10 am

    Melissa Clarke‏Verified account @Clarke_Melissa
    Melissa Clarke Retweeted ABC Politics

    Mathias Cormann told AM the govt will put corporate #taxcuts to the Senate next month, bring on a vote even if it doesn’t appear to have the numbers, & take it to the next election if it fails.

    As someone who is active on the ground in Pearce: BRING IT ON!

  13. Itza – Yes, it’s easy to overlook how much the by-election wins will boost Shorten’s standing in the community. He looks tough and he looks like a winner and he looks like captain of his party. A tremendous PR plus.

  14. Dee Madigan‏Verified account @deemadigan

    Now watch the Libs retailiate (sic) by going after the union moment. Bring. It. On.

    Sally McManus replies:

    Yeah, I’m expecting this.

    The Libs are also trying to discredit GetUp!

  15. Player One @ #211 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 10:42 am

    lizzie @ #208 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 10:39 am

    jenauthor

    It’s possible that IPA ‘members’ on The Drum were masquerading as something else so that in Julia’s eyes they didn’t represent IPA. Perhaps Julia isn’t as aware as we are about the history of some – for example, G Downer.

    I was about to make the same point. I don’t watch “The Drum” except by accident, but I’m fairly sure I’ve seen Georgina “IPA” Downer on there a couple of times.

    Downer had a semi regular gig on ABC Melbourne on Friday mornings.

  16. “”Called it: Abbott says that a Shorten Labor government would be the “most left wing” government in history.””
    Hopefully a Bob Hawke type reforming government!.
    We need so much reform to correct the damage the Liberals have done to this country.

  17. lizzie @ #209 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 7:39 am

    jenauthor

    It’s possible that IPA ‘members’ on The Drum were masquerading as something else so that in Julia’s eyes they didn’t represent IPA. Perhaps Julia isn’t as aware as we are about the history of some – for example, G Downer.

    I think Georgina’s vacuous nature just attracts more attention when she appears, so she stays in the memory more than other guests. 🙂

  18. GG

    It seemed to me as if the ABC was deliberately raising Downer’s profile.

    OTOH Julia Baird says it’s often difficult to get RW bods to appear, but the IPA was always willing.

  19. The byelection results are great news for Ace Turnbull. He will be able to use them in his efforts to drag the Coalition back to the centre. In fact, he is so smart and wonderful he may even have devised the whole thing in his tireless and humble crusade to save Australia from the harsher elements of both major parties.

    What a guy.

    Smoke him a kipper, he will be back for breakfast.

  20. antonbruckner11 @ #100 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 6:29 am

    Grimace – I know that seat polling is notoriously inaccurate, but Newspoll had about SIX goes in Longman and didn’t come anywhere near the final result. Surely that tends to suggest, without proving, that it is weighted towards the libs.

    Alternatively it demonstrates the difficulty of getting a representative sample at seat level and that any perceived bias one way or the other is caused by the shortcomings of seat level polling. In other words, seat level polling is a WOFTAM and that no poll involving an economic or practical representative sample size is going to get anywhere near accurate results.

  21. lizzie @ #220 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 10:48 am

    GG

    It seemed to me as if the ABC was deliberately raising Downer’s profile.

    OTOH Julia Baird says it’s often difficult to get RW bods to appear, but the IPA was always willing.

    You could say the same thing about Liberty Sanger who was often the Yin to Downers Yang (Sanger is the wife of ex batman MP David Feeney) on that program.

  22. Being labelled Left Wing doesn’t mean much anymore, except to right wing ideologues. The Red Commie days are yesterdays. The young don’t know or care. Moreover, it can be transmuted into a badge 0f honour – caring vs selfish – as likewise the word socialist is increasingly a limp label and no longer a no-no in the States.

  23. Zoidlord @ #154 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 7:50 am

    Josh Butler
    ‏Verified account @JoshButler
    19s19 seconds ago

    Leaked emails claim ex-CIA agents, working for Qatar, recruited “journalists, bloggers and high-profile figures” to put “dozens of articles” in Australian media to sabotage our FIFA World Cup bid
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/exclusive-qatar-sabotaged-2022-world-cup-rivals-with-black-ops-glwl3kxkk

    As an Australian taxpayer I’d like to send them a letter of thanks for saving us from the boondoggle which is hosting any major international sporting event.

  24. Anton, Turnbull doesn’t do kamikaze.
    Turnbull has delayed the inevitable and has very few options. Turnbull will propose an election asap. The party will reject the idea, the leadership goes to the vote and out goes Turnbull, rid of party that feels no warmth for the banker unable to deliver government.
    Roughnut gets his revenge and assumes the LNP leadership.
    Shorten becomes PM and everyone in the LNP blames everyone else.
    Roughnut blames Turnbull for the loss, Turnbull blames roughnut.
    How long before Julie announces her unavailability to stand at the next election?

  25. Grimace – I stand to be educated. But why did every Newspoll show a swing well short of Labor’s eventual total? Why weren’t there some which over-estimated the swing to Labor? That suggests to me that Newspoll had a structural bias in favour of the Libs at the seat level. Then the big question is whether that structural bias carries over into their Federal samples. I have no idea. But it’s food for thought.

  26. Golly – the NEC is Malcolm’s great chance to go out with his head held high. He finally stands his ground for the environment. But it won’t happen. Too dumb, too immoral. I know a guy who went to Vaucluse Primary with Malcolm. Remembers Malcolm standing up and telling everyone he would be Prime Minister one day. When that’s your attitude, you have to be dragged from the stage and hacked to death.

  27. John Wren‏ @JohnWren1950 · 2h2 hours ago

    For an example of why no-one pays attention to Murdoch’s @australian
    anymore, look at this. “Albo’s plot in tatters”. There was NEVER a plot. So caught out by #SuperSaturday, now they are spinning that Albo’s “plotting” has failed? Give us a break. We see your bullshit. #auspol

  28. Abbott is saying if Turnbull won’t ditch the tax cuts now, there is a potential Leader available who will!

    As unlikely as it seems, Turnbull may run to an election now rather than suffer the coming months of destabilisation. of course he might adopt the Micaber principle of “Hoping something turns up”.

    I don’t think it makes much difference to the final outcome. But, at least he will go down fighting for his policy agenda rather than be skewered and dissected by his colleagues and the media.

  29. We can always hope.

    Daniel Walton‏ @DanWaltonAWU

    Big developments in the AFP’s investigation into the leaking of the raids on the AWU. More trouble for Malcom Turnbull and Michaelia Cash. Watch this space. #auspol #AusUnions

  30. Scrott reckons company tax cuts will mean “job security, investment and wages”. How is it going in the US ?

    Almost 80% of US workers live from paycheck to paycheck. Here’s why
    Robert Reich

    When Republicans delivered their $1.5tn tax cut last December they predicted a big wage boost for American workers. Forget it. Wages actually dropped in the second quarter of this year.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/29/us-economy-workers-paycheck-robert-reiche
    US workers have in real terms received nothing in the last 40 years. So how was it for the execs ?

    From 1978 to 2014, inflation-adjusted CEO compensation increased 997 percent

    https://www.epi.org/publication/top-ceos-make-300-times-more-than-workers-pay-growth-surpasses-market-gains-and-the-rest-of-the-0-1-percent/

  31. Cormann was very very clear this morning that the corporate tax cuts would remain government policy. They will be put to the senate in August and, if rejected, taken to the next election.

    Now, if Turnbull backflips and hangs Cormann out to dry just as he has done with Morrison more than once then the internals will be interesting.

    Cormann has much greater influence and power within the liberals than Morrison ever held and will not like being hung out to dry. If he withdraws support for Turnbull who would fill the vacuum ? And whoever does how would he/ she match up to the support Cormann controls ?

    ATM I would suggest the first shots in the internal battle over tax cuts are being fired by both sides.

    Can Turnbull afford to lose the support of Cormann and is he willing to find out ?

    I suggest not but we shall see.

    Cheers.

  32. Stefan Armbruster‏Verified account @StefArmbruster · 32m32 minutes ago

    Qld coroner finds Hamid Khazaei’s death was preventable, caused by ‘multiple failures’ and systemic flaws in healthcare and deaths of all asylum seekers and #refugees sent offshore be subject to mandatory coronial inquests in Australia #auspol #PNG #Manus @SBSNews

  33. What does Dutton do armed with the evidence of the result in Longman?

    If things remain as is then he knows he will lose in Dickson – by a humiliating margin even if the LNP regain Government.

    If one were advising Dutton with a view to prolonging his political career it would be for him now to become a “consultative” Minister to backbench concerns over the Corporate Tax cuts. From a position of quiet sympathy with their concerns, as they become more vocal, he can then reluctantly take on an open position that members of the backbench need to be listened to on the Corporate Tax cuts as the legislation to introduce them is brought back to Parliament.

    Finally, when he knows his position has a clear majority support among the LNP backbenchers, he can resign from the Ministry over the issue and wait to be seconded by a grateful backbench as a renewed Conservative leader able to listen to the economic concerns of the average voter, heal the rift brought about by the sacking of TA, all the while continuing to torture refugees.

    Unless he doesn’t have the ticker, which as a bully he probably doesn’t. In which case Dutton has about 9 months of a political career left.

  34. What has the ABC done to upset Malcolm now?

    ABC shot down by PM on Iran

    DARREN DAVIDSON, STEPHEN BROOK
    Malcolm Turnbull has considered lodging another formal complaint against the ABC in a new escalation of tensions. (Oz headline)

  35. With regard to the Michaela Cash and AWU saga. AFP have stated investigation would be complete by end of July to enable matter to proceed as listed for August.
    Let’s see if the AFP do their job, cos past experience suggests they are uneven in their approach.

  36. Re the AFP investigation into the AWU raids.

    There are huge ramifications for the entire IR system in this country and for the continued government attacks on Bill Shorten over his union history.

    If adverse findings are presented by the AFP against Cash and co then the whole government strategy against Shorten and the unions is shot dead in the water.

    The ROC will be terminally compromised. The ABCC will be terminally compromised. Any and all future attempts to prosecute the AWU, CFMMEU , the union movement in general and individual union officials will be shot. Attempts by the government to attack Shorten will be shot as labor calls them out on a ongoing ” political witch hunt ” against the opposition leader that started with TURC.

    Huge ramifications.

    But, as victoria noted, the past history of AFP investigations into the government does not promote optimism.

    We shall see.

    Cheers.

  37. Doyley

    From recollection raids took place last October.
    We are now at the end of July. Surely it should not take that long for such an investigation

  38. antonbruckner11 @ #229 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 10:58 am

    Grimace – I stand to be educated. But why did every Newspoll show a swing well short of Labor’s eventual total? Why weren’t there some which over-estimated the swing to Labor? That suggests to me that Newspoll had a structural bias in favour of the Libs at the seat level. Then the big question is whether that structural bias carries over into their Federal samples. I have no idea. But it’s food for thought.

    Anton and Grimace

    I have had a look at the most recent Newspoll in Longman and it would seem
    1. It got the ALP vote spot on
    2. It got the Greens vote very close
    3. It was not too bad on PHON (out by 1.9% but not way off)

    It went wacka diddle off beam on the LNP vote which they recorded as 36% but was really 29.6%. Huge discrepancy.

    So what ever it did wrongly, it was in the LNP vote that it completely failed to read correctly.

  39. Victoria,

    I believe I read that the AFP report was due this week.

    I share your lack of optimism but stranger things have happened so perhaps the AFP will surprise on the up side.

    Cheers.

  40. In part, the Gs mission has been to influence Labor. In other words, their ostensible goal has been to influence another, rival party, a party they also hope to displace, as if this is a substitute for building their own support.

    Labor figured this out a long time ago and responded by largely ignoring the Greens and their endless insults and provocations.

    The more the Gs insult Labor, the less inclined Labor is to heed the Gs, and the more the Gs undermine their own support with Labor-positive voters.

    Labor has had a very long-run and disciplined approach to the Gs. It’s working.

    On the other side of the spectrum, the LNP have yet to figure out how to effectively respond to ON and its clones. Rather than choosing to ignore them, the LNP have been sucked into celebrating ON-politics and themes. This will strengthen ON at the expense of the LNP, who really should have a long hard look at G-Labor dynamics and try to learn from the experience of their competitors.

  41. For those with an interest in foreign affairs matters and strategy etc, I always wondered why the US so easily left the Phillipines – huge naval and air force bases. It did not seem a very US thing to do or strategically sensible.

    The on the ABC (yesterday i guess – been a little sick/busy so time confused) but it would seem it was nature’s wrath, not political at all.

    Huge volcano chocked the place with dust. I guess for modern military hardware dependent on electronic signals huge dust clouds are a nightmare. Probably still getting dust out of aircraft engines!!!!!

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