Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll caps a weekend of status quo by-election results with a status quo poll result.

I’d have thought Newspoll might have had the week off, but The Australian reports that the latest instalment has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 7%. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 48%, Bill Shoten is steady on 32% and up one to 57%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 48-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1704.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. doyley

    ‘Turnbull is locked into the cuts by Cormann and locked into continued racial dog whistling by Dutton.

    Turnbull will not and can not make either Cormann of Dutton look stupid by changing direction. They are the only protection Turnbull has.’

    Leadership changes are not driven by the Ministerial class. They are driven by the nervous backbenchers looking at their 5% margins. If the backbench thinks they can do better with another leader, they won’t give a flying toss what Cormann or Dutton think.

  2. That whirring noise you hear is Whitlam

    I thought the whirring noise was Abbott. Like a helicopter preparing for take off only it never actually takes off, just goes on whirring and whirring…. maybe it will explode! But not quite. Just more whirring and whirring.

    My neighbour has a helicopter. The sound is very familiar.

  3. GG

    Yep. Economically and socially this govt has delivered in spades.
    The Andrews govt deserves another term to consolidate the infrastructure projects such as Metro and rail crossings etc.
    The whole African gangs and taking the campaign funding(despite report being done and monies repaid) to the police shows the lengths the fibs will go to.
    Anyhoo, as far as law and order are concerned, we may have another gangland war brewing. Sigh…..

  4. I’d normally rather remove my own eyeballs with an ice-cream scoop than agree with Tony Abbott, but on immigration he’s absolutely right. Reducing immigration rates would be a huge vote winner.

    It’s not a coincidence that the coalition has begun edging its way back into contention in the opinion polls at the same time as there have been headlines about Dutton cutting the migrant intake.

  5. zoomster @ #152 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 9:49 am

    doyley

    ‘Turnbull is locked into the cuts by Cormann and locked into continued racial dog whistling by Dutton.

    Turnbull will not and can not make either Cormann of Dutton look stupid by changing direction. They are the only protection Turnbull has.’

    Leadership changes are not driven by the Ministerial class. They are driven by the nervous backbenchers looking at their 5% margins. If the backbench thinks they can do better with another leader, they won’t give a flying toss what Cormann or Dutton think.

    Abbotts out being helpful by not blaming the LNP candidate in Longman for the 29% Primary!

    I’d be watching for names like Angus Taylor, Christian Porter and Josh Frydenburg to become the new Praetorian Guard and the old divisive chuck knuckles to be put back in their box.

  6. Turnbull is no longer attempting to hide his contempt for all and sundry, very similar to the disdain shown by Downer.
    Turnbull will be putting in place his exit strategy to be well away when the next federal election is held. September marks three years for Turnbull.

  7. “Friends who went to one fundraiser (the one with Bishop) said it was poorly attended. Might have been the $2000 entry.”……. I would have gone if she paid my $2000.

    Is that what they mean? 🙂

  8. Golly – Well said. Yes, is it time for Malcolm to finally walk out on a matter of “principle”? Hah, hah. It’s hard to know, because he savours every second he is PM. But, on the other hand, he doesn’t want a crushing defeat, particularly when the real cause is the baboons in his own party. The more high-handed and contemptuous of his party he gets the more likely it is he’s looking for an exit-door (and trying to justify it to himself).

  9. Simon² Katich® @ #142 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 6:39 am

    Barney

    Middle of winter you’d certainly get cheap rates, that’s if Daddy hasn’t got a place down there but campaigning she’d spend half her time just driving to her first stop.

    She certainly was very active tho’. She seemed to be everywhere.

    Friends who went to one fundraiser (the one with Bishop) said it was poorly attended. Might have been the $2000 entry.

    I reckon she will stick it out unless told to go away. And I reckon she will do better next election.

    I think that will depend on her staying in the electorate and maintaining a profile until the election.

    People might start saying, “Oh shit, you’re still around” and start to treat her seriously.

    The only problem then is that they may find out who and what she really is.

    Not many votes in that!!! 🙂

  10. Ante Meridian @ #157 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 9:52 am

    I’d normally rather remove my own eyeballs with an ice-cream scoop than agree with Tony Abbott, but on immigration he’s absolutely right. Reducing immigration rates would be a huge vote winner.

    True. But no matter what they may say, it is not in the Liberal DNA to actually do so.

    It’s not a coincidence that the coalition has begun edging its way back into contention in the opinion polls at the same time as there have been headlines about Dutton cutting the migrant intake.

    I don’t believe there has been a cut – I read that there is just some shuffling between visa classes that allows him to say skilled migration numbers are down. I’ll try and find the article.

  11. Ante Meridian @ #157 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 9:52 am

    I’d normally rather remove my own eyeballs with an ice-cream scoop than agree with Tony Abbott, but on immigration he’s absolutely right. Reducing immigration rates would be a huge vote winner.

    It’s not a coincidence that the coalition has begun edging its way back into contention in the opinion polls at the same time as there have been headlines about Dutton cutting the migrant intake.

    Rubbish.

    Dutton would have lost his seat convincingly if he’d been up for re-election last Saturday.

  12. Michelle Grattan:

    https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-malcolm-turnbulls-authority-diminished-after-byelection-failures-100741

    The high primary vote for Sharkie in Mayo (45%), the substantial vote for One Nation in Longman (16%), and the notable support for an independent, Craig Garland, in Braddon (11%) are all manifestations of the strength of the protest vote against the large parties.

    People are angry about their own circumstances and about the politicians; they’re distrustful and alienated. It should be said these voters comprise different streams. One Nation supporters in Longman may have little in common with Sharkie supporters in Mayo. But they share a desire to say “up you” to the major parties.

  13. Mr Denmore‏ @MrDenmore · 12h12 hours ago

    With the greatest respect to our friend Mr D, there is only one bit of advice Trumble really needs to heed.

    Fuck off.

  14. As to the tit for tat referrals in Victoria, feeds into the same-same perception of the political duopoly with its snouts in the trough rorting tax-payers’money.

  15. Player One,

    Yes, I believe the apparent cuts to immigration are smoke and mirrors. But the headlines say numbers are going down, and enough people believe them.

    It was a similar story under Howard. The media managed to convince enough gullible people that he was pushing migrant numbers down, when in fact they were going through the roof.

  16. adrian, Shorten was on ABC 24 breakfast. He came on just after Greiner around 7.30am. Surprised you missed it – they were promoting him for about an hour before he actually appeared.

  17. Pegasus @ #167 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 7:02 am

    Peter Hartcher:

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/super-saturday-revealed-voters-are-hungry-for-an-alternative-20180729-p4zub1.html

    So if the government lost support and Labor didn’t pick up most of it, where did it go?

    The by-elections reveal a country hungry for an alternative to the two main parties.

    Wherever there was a credible independent or minor-party challenger to the duopoly, that candidate gained substantial support.

    So Hartcher considers Divided Nation as credible!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    And the Tasie fisherman!!! 🙂 :):)

    The only credibly minor party candidate was Sharkie and she won in a seat that Labor would have no chance of winning.

  18. Thanks PBers for lots of interesting and thoughtful commentary on the outcome of the by-elections. May I add some comments of my own?
    I believe that the results mean the Coalition are going to need to take a very hard look not at their message delivery (which is poor, but used as a convenient excuse to cover their other deficiencies) but at their policies and electoral strategies.
    The pragmatic members in the Government, especially those in marginal seats, will be urging a retreat from hard- nosed ideology and and the resultant infighting.
    It certainly appears Labor has more voter-friendly policies and a highly effective election machine, as well as the money to fight elections.
    The pathetic”kill Bill” strategy is a complete failure. Turnbull’s PPM status did nothing to drag his team over the line. To see him being heckled diminishes the rhetoric behind the much-vaunted PPM line his Murdoch supporters push each poll.
    Shorten is safe in the Leadership. It is obvious neither team will change leaders now, but only Turnbull will have a continuing undercurrent eroding his place.
    Seriously, how much lower can the CPGs faith in NewsPoll go, and in polls generally?
    In a State dominated by Murdoch papers, this is yet another loss for his Courier Mail. It is struggling for relevance as an influencer of political thought in Qld.
    Now for the Victorian election.
    A State election, yes, with State influences and issues. But the State and Federal Liberals need a loss like a hole in the head. That possibility looks like a veritable “sword of Damocles” hanging over their head right now.
    Lots of hard-nosed thinking needed now in the Liberal Party.

  19. Big A Adrian @ #173 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 10:09 am

    adrian, Shorten was on ABC 24 breakfast. He came on just after Greiner around 7.30am. Surprised you missed it – they were promoting him for about an hour before he actually appeared.

    Jim Chalmers also had a long interview with Fran on RN as did Bowen on ABC Melbourne this morning.

  20. And where are the Greens with all this talk of “credible” minor party and independent candidates?

    How did WA go? 🙂

  21. Votes/%/ Swing
    SSELL, Lloyd Thomas John Liberal Democrats 1,681 1.97 +1.97
    SALEAM, Jim Australia First Party 684 0.80 +0.80
    BELL, Gregory Labour DLP 990 1.16 +1.16
    PERKINS, Jackie Independent 2,270 2.65 +2.65
    NOONAN, James Science Party 926 1.08 +1.08
    STEPHEN, Matthew Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 13,623 15.93 +6.51
    REECE, John Australian People’s Party 399 0.47 +0.47
    LAMB, Susan Australian Labor Party 34,186 39.98 +4.60
    RUTHENBERG, Trevor Liberal National Party of Queensland 25,309 29.59 -9.42
    VERRIER, Blair Ann Australian Country Party 1,344 1.57 +1.57
    BEHRENS, Gavin The Greens 4,106 4.80 +0.41

    Peg, Looking at Longman, after the LNP, the greens got the smallest swing out of all. If there’s a mood for change, the greens certainly haven’t captured it have they ?

  22. peg

    I have a feeling most by elections show this.

    Note — the article ends with someone harking back twenty years ago and pointing out that people were predicting the crushing of the duopoly then, due to PHON.

    I’m pretty sure that there would have been similar opinion pieces written about parties such as the Democrats, Australia First, Santamaria’s mob, yada yada yada — parties which have long gone, leaving the duopoly in place.

  23. zoomster @ #182 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 10:14 am

    peg

    I have a feeling most by elections show this.

    Note — the article ends with someone harking back twenty years ago and pointing out that people were predicting the crushing of the duopoly then, due to PHON.

    I’m pretty sure that there would have been similar opinion pieces written about parties such as the Democrats, Australia First, Santamaria’s mob, yada yada yada — parties which have long gone, leaving the duopoly in place.

    I’d also contend that the segmentation of the Liberal vote because of the “footsie” playing with ON is a factor here.

  24. Abbott: One of the things you learn as a leader is don’t set tests for yourself that are going to be very hard to pass. I guess 30 newspolls was another one

    Oh Tony, you’re a complete bell end, but you aren’t as big a dope as Trumble are ya?

  25. Golly – On reflection, Malcolm preparing an exit strategy is the smart move. He will certainly have a good opportunity when the NEG has to go through the party-room. But, I’m afraid that, for that reason, he won’t take it. The man is an idiot with the morals of a virus. He loves being PM too much and he will keep thinking that he can con the electorate into voting for him again. After all, all he has to do is reverse a few labor “lies”. When the time comes, Malcolm will hit the ground like a Kamikaze pilot.

  26. ‘Twas interesting this morning to hear Barrie Cassidy’s mea culpa from yesterday’s Insiders replayed this morning on Sydney’s ABC 702.

    The target audience was a newish young ABC political reporter, whose name escapes me. The young whippersnapper, corralled into the studio to give his wrap-up of the weekend’s events, was asked if he felt like he needed to apologize to his listeners (as Barrie Cassidy had, sort of) for over-concentrating on the “Kill Bill” angle.

    “Nothing to apologize for, ” came the confident reply, in a tone of voice evidencing mild astonishment that the question would even be asked… or perhaps his surprise was that a CPG member should be required to apologize for or explain anything they did or wrote.

    Whatever the case, the Bright Young Thing declined, giving roughly the same reason that Murpharoo supplied: Albo made a speech, didn’t he? Which should be enough to justify 2 months of leadershit, while totally ignoring anything like what the voters might think was important. And damn your eyes Wendy Harmer and Robbie Buck by the way, for daring to ask.

    It’s not that Albo did *not* give a speech, or that Bill might *not* have been in a spot of bother if he had dropped a seat or two, of course. It’s that the journos didn’t consider anything else – say policy, or its evaluation – as also being remotely important enough to cover.

    They justify this by automatically classifying anything said in any election campaign as spin and lies, not really worth going into, except to dismiss in a cynical, world-weary, all-knowing tone of voice.

    So, straightaway, no need to report on the policy argument at all. Let’s get down to the horse race, and any voter wanting to know which party is spruiking what can find that out some place else. We’re political reporters, not policy wonks. The punters are on their own. There’s a narrative to nurture.

    It’s either pure self-indulgence, or the CPG hacks really DO believe that voters vote, not on policy, but on the CPG narrative. As in, “Here’s your chance to get rid of Bill Shorten. Ignore policy matters and vote for even more political chaos.” How then is a voter to be informed of anything related to what each side stands for, if it’s obviously not the Media’s job to do so?

    Maybe the CPG’s attitude is a bit of both, but this quite shameless obsession with turning everything into click bait and Reality TV is only accelerating the fuckeduppedness of our ship of state and all those who sail in her.

    The politicians think the CPG is a crass pack of baying hyenas, and the CPG think the politicians are a mob of corrupt graspers more interested in perks than policy. There’s only one way this will begin to change.

    So yes, we need leadership, but of the kind that breaks the feedback loop between the media and the party room, of the kind that speaks to the people rather than at them.

    And if the CPG won’t co-operate, then they must be bypassed. They work for companies that espouse the virtues of big business, but which themselves go broke with clockwork monotony. Why should we take their advice on anything at all?

  27. “If Mr Turnbull drops his corporate tax cuts for the big end of town, he should go with them,” he said.

    Shorten said the tax cuts were “his signature economic policy – the reason why he was prime minister, [and the basis of] the last two budgets”.

    “If he hasn’t got the intestinal fortitude to support his own economic values, what he really believes, then he shouldn’t hang around either.”

    Trumble is going to get a lesson in narrative setting.

    The beauty of this bit of work from Bill is that a whole bunch o’liberals will be nodding along in agreement.

  28. Here’s one for Q and A:

    Despite weeks of media efforts to undermine Labor and declare certain victory for the Coalition, Labor easily retained all 4 of its seats in the Super Saturday by-elections with an increased margin in each one. Is it time for the media to stop perpetuating the Government’s ‘Kill Bill’ narrative and focus on the real embattled leader, Malcolm Turnbull?

  29. Ratsak – if they drop the coy tax cuts, their only policy at the next election will be free pork for all. Better to stick with the tax cuts.

  30. Bushfire Bill

    Re the whippersnapper (and many other journos) . If you know SFA then the second best policy is to write/say ‘what everybody else is saying’. There would be a lot of that going on. Best policy would be not commenting but that is not what they are paid for.

  31. Ante Meridian @ #171 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 10:07 am

    Player One,

    Yes, I believe the apparent cuts to immigration are smoke and mirrors. But the headlines say numbers are going down, and enough people believe them.

    It was a similar story under Howard. The media managed to convince enough gullible people that he was pushing migrant numbers down, when in fact they were going through the roof.

    The Libs never get tired of using the same old tricks, do they? Unfortunately, they do so because we continue to fall for them 🙁

    Here is the article I remembered – http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-22/bridging-visa-surge-overwhelms-permanent-migration-cuts/9785946

    Massive growth in Australia’s ballooning temporary migration is dwarfing the Government’s cuts to the permanent intake.

    At the end of March, 195,000 people with bridging visas were in Australia, including more than 37,000 whose nationality was not specified.

    That is up more than 40,000 on a year ago, and close to 90,000 since 2014, according to official Department of Home Affairs figures.

    It has pushed the number of people in Australia on temporary visas to more than 2.2 million — again, a record high.

    Bridging visas are usually given to migrants whose substantive applications are currently being processed.

    Many of these temporary visa holders will go on to become permanent residents.

    In other words, this “cut” is just a pea-and-thimble trick.

  32. BB

    I suggested to the tweet put out by Julia Baird about the Drum and balance that they look at independent experts in policy fields and political leanings second.

    This was the tweet that Baird was complaining about getting conservative voices onto the Drum.

    Apparently this year there has been only three appearances by IPA members on the panel.

  33. Trying to draw conclusions about the fate of the political duopoly from a handful of by-elections is like trying to measure climate change based on a single hot winter or cold summer. A single data point is meaningless. It’s the long-term trend that counts.

    And the long-term trend is clear. In the 1970s, the two major parties were expected to get around 95% of the primary vote between them. Today they’re lucky to get 70%.

    Of course, the trend may turn around at any time, but if it doesn’t, it’s only a matter of time before the duopoly cracks. There simply must be a level below which the major party support can’t go without losing seats all over the place.

    And just to repeat, the trend may turn around. Maybe. But it’s been happening for a long time, and there are no signs of a turnaround yet.

  34. I see the Guardian has shut down comments on the by-elections, but is very happy to promote an ‘Exclusive’ with its friend Frydenberg.

  35. AM

    Correct. There are going to be more not less times Labor is going to have to rely on support from other parties to govern.

    The same is going to be true for the two parties that formalised their alliance of the LNP.

    The fact they formalised the alliance does not change the fact the Liberal party only governs with the support of the Nationals. Calling them a major party is good spin for the right but the reality is they have been split for a long time.

  36. Player One @ #194 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 7:24 am

    Ante Meridian @ #171 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 10:07 am

    Player One,

    Yes, I believe the apparent cuts to immigration are smoke and mirrors. But the headlines say numbers are going down, and enough people believe them.

    It was a similar story under Howard. The media managed to convince enough gullible people that he was pushing migrant numbers down, when in fact they were going through the roof.

    The Libs never get tired of using the same old tricks, do they? Unfortunately, they do so because we continue to fall for them 🙁

    Here is the article I remembered – http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-22/bridging-visa-surge-overwhelms-permanent-migration-cuts/9785946

    Massive growth in Australia’s ballooning temporary migration is dwarfing the Government’s cuts to the permanent intake.

    At the end of March, 195,000 people with bridging visas were in Australia, including more than 37,000 whose nationality was not specified.

    That is up more than 40,000 on a year ago, and close to 90,000 since 2014, according to official Department of Home Affairs figures.

    It has pushed the number of people in Australia on temporary visas to more than 2.2 million — again, a record high.

    Bridging visas are usually given to migrants whose substantive applications are currently being processed.

    Many of these temporary visa holders will go on to become permanent residents.

    In other words, this “cut” is just a pea-and-thimble trick.

    These would be people left over from the old visa classes that have been replaced.

    Under the new temporary work visas many of them would not be entitled to apply for citizenship.

  37. I don’t believe Baird’s figures … I rarely watch the Drum yet the few times I did watch had IPA members.

    If I managed to pick the only times they were on to watch, then I deserve to win the lottery because the chances of me ONLY watching when IPA were on is rather unlikely

  38. Barney

    For the right 457 visas are great. Two birds with one stone. Cheap Labor to undercut Australian workers and lots of visible different faces to bang the hordes of immigration drum.

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