Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll caps a weekend of status quo by-election results with a status quo poll result.

I’d have thought Newspoll might have had the week off, but The Australian reports that the latest instalment has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 7%. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 48%, Bill Shoten is steady on 32% and up one to 57%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 48-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1704.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. antonbruckner11 @ #101 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 8:31 am

    Coorey’s columns should be relabeled: the thoughts of Matthias Corman.

    Corman was the strategic intellect that drove the Libs from power in WA. He seems determined to replicate that achievement at the federal level. Turnbull should show some nous and bone him today whild discarding the Corporate Tax cuts.

  2. More on Cambodia.

    It’s not really corruption it’s just the benefits of toeing the Governments line.

    Cambodia’s Information Minister has been seen giving local journalists $US200 just minutes after voting in an election labelled a “sham” by rights groups.

    Khieu Kanharith cast his ballot at Toul Kork Primary School in Phnom Penh.

    “I want to give these guys (local media) some money but you guys (ABC) are here,” he said.

    About 15 minutes later, he walked to his car and the ABC witnessed him hand over two $US100 bills, which were later distributed to Cambodian reporters.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-29/cambodian-minister-bribes-local-media-at-polling-station/10049046

  3. rhwombat @ #71 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 7:10 am

    C@tmomma @ #22 Sunday, July 29th, 2018 – 10:31 pm

    ItzaDream,
    Dr Harris stated that the medication that he used for the Thai rescues only lasted 30min to an hour and so needed to be readministered by the divers taking the boys out, which he had to teach them to do. Successfully as it turned out. So what does that make you think he was using?

    CM & ID:
    That’s what I had heard – which implies midazolam either intravenously (which would be difficult without a central line as ID pointed out) or subcutaneously (which would be a bit slow). In fact, it may have been readministration of intranasal ketamine by the accompanying divers that Dr Harris was so proud of. That would make sense – though I hope that the Thai PM doesn’t snort special K prior to shooting.

    RHW

    Whatever way you look at it is seems that Dr Harris was the super hero/brains behind the success. He is a very, very real hero.

    I hate to think of the emotional toll it must have taken. 13 times he must have had his heart in his mouth.

    The few snippets I have gathered suggest that they were most worried about the youngest, partly because the masks may not be secure because of his size and I guess also dosage concerns. It seems he was left to the very last and possibly Dr Harris came out with him????? to administer the dose.

    Also I guess for rescuer morale – such a cute kid must have won the hearts of everyone in the cave so I guess the last thing they needed was for him to not make it.

    When they do the movies he just needs to act himself – though I guess sadly in a year he will not be the cute kid he is now. When they did that interview I was shocked by just how much of a child he was. Still the little child voice and childish innocence.

  4. Turnbull is not strong enough to sack any one.
    Also my guess is given his position any change in policy would have to go to cabinet.
    Could Cormann be talking out of turn, like the ‘senior liberal’ yesterday trying to head off Dutton and other Queenslanders?

  5. It wasn’t the preference allocation on seat polling that was the problem. All the polls overstated the LNP primary vote and most understated the Labor primary vote.

  6. lizzie @ #107 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 8:57 am

    Reading this, Georgina Downer is a brilliant member of the Downer family. It just doesn’t seem like the G D we see on the ABC. Is this bio real or a spoof?

    https://www.imdb.com/name/nm8448497/bio

    It could be factually correct – she got a degree she apparently barely passed, and has since been shuffled between a series of sinecures and sham appointments with fancy but meaningless titles. About what you’d expect of the scion of a senior Liberal. Abbott’s daughters also spring to mind.

  7. GG @ 8.27

    I think the difference here is the Libs have made the corporate tax cuts such a centre piece of their politics that if they back down on them they’ll justifiably cop “What do you actualy stand for?” combined with the expected “They’ll bring them back after the next election” scare campaign. I think they’re skewered no matter what they do.

  8. Burgey @ #114 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 9:15 am

    GG @ 8.27

    I think the difference here is the Libs have made the corporate tax cuts such a centre piece of their politics that if they back down on them they’ll justifiably cop “What do you actualy stand for?” combined with the expected “They’ll bring them back after the next election” scare campaign. I think they’re skewered no matter what they do.

    The Libs can stand humiliation. They can stand policy back flips. They can stand disappointment and they can stand being labelled hypocrites.

    What they can’t stand is losing power.

  9. antonbruckner11 @ #100 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 8:29 am

    Grimace – I know that seat polling is notoriously inaccurate, but Newspoll had about SIX goes in Longman and didn’t come anywhere near the final result. Surely that tends to suggest, without proving, that it is weighted towards the libs.

    I am sure you are right but getting any sort of accurate poll in Longman would be next to impossible. It is a very, very diverse seat. So if you have just a few more people in your sample from Bribie you will totally misread those from Woodford while Northlakes would be totally different from them both. Then there are Morayfied and Caboolture.

    I guess most places have big ranges (Braddon did too) but in Longman you have the wealthy rural pocket of Mt Mee that returned Libs 47%, Bribie retirement area (Woorim) where the LNP vote fell by 9.6% to just 35%,significant rural town of Woodford where the LNP vote was only 30% right down to Morayfied where the LNP vote was only 19%. Big range as you can see PHON was mostly at 16% but rose to 23% in rural town of Woodford and to 9% in seaside Woorim. For the ALP 46%at Morayfied (industrial) but lowest in Mt Mee at 28% (but still not too bad for this spot).

    If I were the Libs (Dutton especially) the polling booth that would be freaking me out would be the Prepoll at Northlakes. Lamb got a swing of 8%. Now this is much more suburban heartland and pretty representative I would think of Brisbane as a whole unlike the whole of Longman with its peculiar pockets of special demographics. Northlakes is a big suburban shopping centre. Middle Australia almost to a tee. As goes Northlakes so too will Dickson and Petrie.

  10. Good morning all,

    Turnbull is the PM simply because Cormann and Dutton support him.

    Yesterday there was plenty of chatter about the government dumping its corporate tax cuts from a number of ” government sources. ”

    Cormann has made it very very clear today the corporate tax cuts, his policy, will remain. Unless Turnbull wants to lose the support of Cormann, the corporate tax cuts will remain government policy.

    Turnbull is locked into the cuts by Cormann and locked into continued racial dog whistling by Dutton.

    Turnbull will not and can not make either Cormann of Dutton look stupid by changing direction. They are the only protection Turnbull has.

    Cheers.

  11. Not the most convenient place to get around Mayo from.

    A lovely spot tho. Lots of quality short stay accommodation available 😉

  12. doyley @ #118 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 9:19 am

    Good morning all,

    Turnbull is the PM simply because Cormann and Dutton support him.

    Yesterday there was plenty of chatter about the government dumping its corporate tax cuts from a number of ” government sources. ”

    Cormann has made it very very clear today the corporate tax cuts, his policy, will remain. Unless Turnbull wants to lose the support of Cormann, the corporate tax cuts will remain government policy.

    Turnbull is locked into the cuts by Cormann and locked into continued racial whistling by Dutton.

    Turnbull will not and can not make either Cormann of Dutton look stupid by changing direction. They are the only protection Turnbull has.

    Cheers.

    Power brokers that can’t deliver power aren’t worth sixpence. Turnbull has to change tack or he’s a dead duck.

  13. In the media

    All Labor can do as a government is institute laws as Canada has about truth in journalism and restore the ABC to its real function.

    Thats it.

    I think its enough myself.

  14. doyley @ #118 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 9:19 am

    Turnbull will not and can not make either Cormann of Dutton look stupid by changing direction.

    On the other hand, Cormann and Dutton can (and no doubt will) make Turnbull look like a complete muppet over the coming months. I wouldn’t be surprised if Mal pulls the plug rather than face such extended humiliation. He has already achieved the only thing he ever really wanted – i.e. to be PM. Accomplishing anything more looks increasingly unlikely.

  15. adrian… “ABC news dragging out Nick Greiner to tell us nothing to see here. Anyone from Labor?
    You know the answer to that question.”

    You mean apart from Bill Shorten?

  16. Kroger is spinning like a top … and as usual, sees the world from his insular, LIBERAL, cubbyhole.

    Part of the problem the Libs are having right now is that the few movers and shakers are so lacking in empathy, they cannot comprehend the mindset of the general populace. This patronising, feudal outlook pervades the upper eschelons of the party because those who are its leaders ALL come from a small privileged group that are kept at the top by a claque of power-hungry nobodies.

  17. GG

    Nailed it. The problem for the LNP is they are on a crusade. What the voters want and think doesn’t matter.

    So Doyley is right and this is a main reason I am expecting a Labor win more than a loss even though we may still see a black swan event.

  18. Josh Taylor
    ‏Verified account @joshgnosis
    2m2 minutes ago

    Abbott: One of the things you learn as a leader is don’t set tests for yourself that are going to be very hard to pass. I guess 30 newspolls was another one

  19. Simon² Katich® @ #122 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 6:24 am

    Not the most convenient place to get around Mayo from.

    A lovely spot tho. Lots of quality short stay accommodation available 😉

    Middle of winter you’d certainly get cheap rates, that’s if Daddy hasn’t got a place down there but campaigning she’d spend half her time just driving to her first stop.

    Logistically not a bright choice which plays into what we suspected all along! 🙂

  20. Paul Karp
    ‏Verified account @Paul_Karp
    48s48 seconds ago

    Tony Abbott: I can’t dispute you’re figures, in 2013 we got 45% in Longman. We’re down to 29%. “I don’t think you can blame the candidate – Trevor Ruthenberg worked hard”. #auspol #SuperSatuday

  21. 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀

    ROFL

    Greg Jericho
    ‏Verified account @GrogsGamut
    38s39 seconds ago

    “Getting a coal fired power station built” is apparently according to Abbott what the voters want

  22. Josh Taylor tweets

    Abbott: I don’t think you can blame the candidate… when the voters send you a message you’ve got to listen.

    He says the best thing to do would be pull out of the Paris agreement and scale back immigration

  23. Reading this, Georgina Downer is a brilliant member of the Downer family.

    Matthew Abrahams wrote in yesterdays local rag that she has huge talent and she will make it to high places.

    Abrahams was until recently one of the presenters of a popular ABC local morning Radio show. He and his buddy styled themselves on BBC Hardtalk although saved most of the hard talk for Jay Weatherill while having jovial chats with Marshall about his running shorts.

  24. Brett Mason
    ‏Verified account @BrettMasonNews
    2m2 minutes ago

    Former PM @TonyAbbottMHR on @2GB – “there are no votes in company tax cuts” #auspol @SBSNews

    Wake up and smell the roses.

  25. SRPeatling tweets

    Mr Abbott says immigration is high and people want it tackled: “Most of those people are coming in because business want to bring in labour and universities want to bring in students…Legal migration is now increasingly out of control of the govt.”

    Now Abbott is pretending to be Sally McManus

  26. Barney

    Middle of winter you’d certainly get cheap rates, that’s if Daddy hasn’t got a place down there but campaigning she’d spend half her time just driving to her first stop.

    She certainly was very active tho’. She seemed to be everywhere.

    Friends who went to one fundraiser (the one with Bishop) said it was poorly attended. Might have been the $2000 entry.

    I reckon she will stick it out unless told to go away. And I reckon she will do better next election.

  27. GG

    Nil all draw sounds about right
    Of course it can still depend on Matthew Guy and whatever his hysterical response is going to be.
    He does display tunnel vision in spades

  28. Josh Taylor
    ‏Verified account @joshgnosis
    2m2 minutes ago

    Called it: Abbott says that a Shorten Labor government would be the “most left wing” government in history.

  29. The other issue the LNP have to address quick smart is funding for catholic Schools. In both Batman and Longman last minute letters were distributed to Catholic voters urging a vote for Labor. In both these seats, Labors final vote was above pre poll estimates.

  30. Bill getting on the front foot :

    Shorten suggested that Coalition ministers “are starting to panic” on the company tax cut plan but warned a push to drop them amounted to a plan to “bring them in later after an election if [they] get re-elected”.

    “If Mr Turnbull drops his corporate tax cuts for the big end of town, he should go with them,” he said.

    Shorten said the tax cuts were “his signature economic policy – the reason why he was prime minister, [and the basis of] the last two budgets”.

    “If he hasn’t got the intestinal fortitude to support his own economic values, what he really believes, then he shouldn’t hang around either.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/30/if-company-tax-cuts-ditched-turnbull-should-go-with-them-shorten-says

  31. Victoria @ #142 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 9:41 am

    GG

    Nil all draw sounds about right
    Of course it can still depend on Matthew Guy and whatever his hysterical response is going to be.
    He does display tunnel vision in spades

    Vic,

    Victoria has just leapt to the best performing economy in the country because of population growth and massive infra structure spending and employment growth. When the election is held, these will be the top of mind issues that will resonate with voters.

    Corruption allegations and alleged marauding African Gangs sell newspapers but aren’t game changers at the minute.

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