I’d have thought Newspoll might have had the week off, but The Australian reports that the latest instalment has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 7%. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 48%, Bill Shoten is steady on 32% and up one to 57%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 48-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1704.
Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor
Newspoll caps a weekend of status quo by-election results with a status quo poll result.
Coorey’s columns should be relabeled: the thoughts of Matthias Corman.
antonbruckner11 @ #101 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 8:31 am
Corman was the strategic intellect that drove the Libs from power in WA. He seems determined to replicate that achievement at the federal level. Turnbull should show some nous and bone him today whild discarding the Corporate Tax cuts.
Even an old cynic like myself is sometimes gobsmacked. This:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/cricket-australia-sacks-worker-over-series-of-tweets-about-abortion-20180729-p4zuar.html
My initial (and no doubt on reflection over the top) reaction is for an incoming federal Labor Government to terminate any and all federal money going to CA, and for State Labor Governments to kick any CA sanctioned activity off public lands.
More on Cambodia.
It’s not really corruption it’s just the benefits of toeing the Governments line.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-29/cambodian-minister-bribes-local-media-at-polling-station/10049046
rhwombat @ #71 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 7:10 am
RHW
Whatever way you look at it is seems that Dr Harris was the super hero/brains behind the success. He is a very, very real hero.
I hate to think of the emotional toll it must have taken. 13 times he must have had his heart in his mouth.
The few snippets I have gathered suggest that they were most worried about the youngest, partly because the masks may not be secure because of his size and I guess also dosage concerns. It seems he was left to the very last and possibly Dr Harris came out with him????? to administer the dose.
Also I guess for rescuer morale – such a cute kid must have won the hearts of everyone in the cave so I guess the last thing they needed was for him to not make it.
When they do the movies he just needs to act himself – though I guess sadly in a year he will not be the cute kid he is now. When they did that interview I was shocked by just how much of a child he was. Still the little child voice and childish innocence.
Turnbull is not strong enough to sack any one.
Also my guess is given his position any change in policy would have to go to cabinet.
Could Cormann be talking out of turn, like the ‘senior liberal’ yesterday trying to head off Dutton and other Queenslanders?
Reading this, Georgina Downer is a brilliant member of the Downer family. It just doesn’t seem like the G D we see on the ABC. Is this bio real or a spoof?
https://www.imdb.com/name/nm8448497/bio
It wasn’t the preference allocation on seat polling that was the problem. All the polls overstated the LNP primary vote and most understated the Labor primary vote.
lizzie @ #107 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 8:57 am
It could be factually correct – she got a degree she apparently barely passed, and has since been shuffled between a series of sinecures and sham appointments with fancy but meaningless titles. About what you’d expect of the scion of a senior Liberal. Abbott’s daughters also spring to mind.
lizzie
The Chair of Asialink is Andrew Robb…..just sayin’.
lizzie @ #109 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 5:57 am
Interestingly trivia, she supposedly “Lives in Normanville on the Fleurieu Peninsula, South Australia.”
Not the most convenient place to get around Mayo from.
Yep, scratch the surface and Trickle Downer is an A Grade did!
GG
What’s your view on the latest re Vic state politics and the campaign funds saga?
GG @ 8.27
I think the difference here is the Libs have made the corporate tax cuts such a centre piece of their politics that if they back down on them they’ll justifiably cop “What do you actualy stand for?” combined with the expected “They’ll bring them back after the next election” scare campaign. I think they’re skewered no matter what they do.
Victoria @ #113 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 9:11 am
Nil all draw!
Burgey @ #114 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 9:15 am
The Libs can stand humiliation. They can stand policy back flips. They can stand disappointment and they can stand being labelled hypocrites.
What they can’t stand is losing power.
antonbruckner11 @ #100 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 8:29 am
I am sure you are right but getting any sort of accurate poll in Longman would be next to impossible. It is a very, very diverse seat. So if you have just a few more people in your sample from Bribie you will totally misread those from Woodford while Northlakes would be totally different from them both. Then there are Morayfied and Caboolture.
I guess most places have big ranges (Braddon did too) but in Longman you have the wealthy rural pocket of Mt Mee that returned Libs 47%, Bribie retirement area (Woorim) where the LNP vote fell by 9.6% to just 35%,significant rural town of Woodford where the LNP vote was only 30% right down to Morayfied where the LNP vote was only 19%. Big range as you can see PHON was mostly at 16% but rose to 23% in rural town of Woodford and to 9% in seaside Woorim. For the ALP 46%at Morayfied (industrial) but lowest in Mt Mee at 28% (but still not too bad for this spot).
If I were the Libs (Dutton especially) the polling booth that would be freaking me out would be the Prepoll at Northlakes. Lamb got a swing of 8%. Now this is much more suburban heartland and pretty representative I would think of Brisbane as a whole unlike the whole of Longman with its peculiar pockets of special demographics. Northlakes is a big suburban shopping centre. Middle Australia almost to a tee. As goes Northlakes so too will Dickson and Petrie.
Good morning all,
Turnbull is the PM simply because Cormann and Dutton support him.
Yesterday there was plenty of chatter about the government dumping its corporate tax cuts from a number of ” government sources. ”
Cormann has made it very very clear today the corporate tax cuts, his policy, will remain. Unless Turnbull wants to lose the support of Cormann, the corporate tax cuts will remain government policy.
Turnbull is locked into the cuts by Cormann and locked into continued racial dog whistling by Dutton.
Turnbull will not and can not make either Cormann of Dutton look stupid by changing direction. They are the only protection Turnbull has.
Cheers.
The Hun has a truly heartwarming headline 🙂
.
“Liberal MPs fear federal election wipeout”
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/turnbull-faces-federal-election-wipeout-after-primary-vote-crash/news-story/74465afb86b86268e28caa550d18a386
A lovely spot tho. Lots of quality short stay accommodation available 😉
doyley @ #118 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 9:19 am
Power brokers that can’t deliver power aren’t worth sixpence. Turnbull has to change tack or he’s a dead duck.
Good Morning
DavidWH
What a sensible analysis. Its a pity LNP pollies cannot say the same
In the media
All Labor can do as a government is institute laws as Canada has about truth in journalism and restore the ABC to its real function.
Thats it.
I think its enough myself.
DTT – Thank you. Very interesting.
doyley @ #118 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 9:19 am
On the other hand, Cormann and Dutton can (and no doubt will) make Turnbull look like a complete muppet over the coming months. I wouldn’t be surprised if Mal pulls the plug rather than face such extended humiliation. He has already achieved the only thing he ever really wanted – i.e. to be PM. Accomplishing anything more looks increasingly unlikely.
adrian… “ABC news dragging out Nick Greiner to tell us nothing to see here. Anyone from Labor?
You know the answer to that question.”
You mean apart from Bill Shorten?
Kroger is spinning like a top … and as usual, sees the world from his insular, LIBERAL, cubbyhole.
Part of the problem the Libs are having right now is that the few movers and shakers are so lacking in empathy, they cannot comprehend the mindset of the general populace. This patronising, feudal outlook pervades the upper eschelons of the party because those who are its leaders ALL come from a small privileged group that are kept at the top by a claque of power-hungry nobodies.
GG
Nailed it. The problem for the LNP is they are on a crusade. What the voters want and think doesn’t matter.
So Doyley is right and this is a main reason I am expecting a Labor win more than a loss even though we may still see a black swan event.
Abbott is on 2GB as we type
Josh Taylor
Verified account @joshgnosis
2m2 minutes ago
Abbott: One of the things you learn as a leader is don’t set tests for yourself that are going to be very hard to pass. I guess 30 newspolls was another one
Simon² Katich® @ #122 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 6:24 am
Middle of winter you’d certainly get cheap rates, that’s if Daddy hasn’t got a place down there but campaigning she’d spend half her time just driving to her first stop.
Logistically not a bright choice which plays into what we suspected all along! 🙂
Paul Karp
Verified account @Paul_Karp
48s48 seconds ago
Tony Abbott: I can’t dispute you’re figures, in 2013 we got 45% in Longman. We’re down to 29%. “I don’t think you can blame the candidate – Trevor Ruthenberg worked hard”. #auspol #SuperSatuday
Malcolm Farr tweets
“Now I know you don’t want to take part in political commentary,” Hadley to Abbott.
Good thing about Abbott talking is leadership back on LNP LOL
😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀
ROFL
Greg Jericho
Verified account @GrogsGamut
38s39 seconds ago
“Getting a coal fired power station built” is apparently according to Abbott what the voters want
Josh Taylor tweets
Abbott: I don’t think you can blame the candidate… when the voters send you a message you’ve got to listen.
He says the best thing to do would be pull out of the Paris agreement and scale back immigration
Matthew Abrahams wrote in yesterdays local rag that she has huge talent and she will make it to high places.
Abrahams was until recently one of the presenters of a popular ABC local morning Radio show. He and his buddy styled themselves on BBC Hardtalk although saved most of the hard talk for Jay Weatherill while having jovial chats with Marshall about his running shorts.
Brett Mason tweets
Former PM @TonyAbbottMHR on @2GB – “there are no votes in company tax cuts” #auspol @SBSNews
Brett Mason
Verified account @BrettMasonNews
2m2 minutes ago
Former PM @TonyAbbottMHR on @2GB – “there are no votes in company tax cuts” #auspol @SBSNews
Wake up and smell the roses.
SRPeatling tweets
Mr Abbott says immigration is high and people want it tackled: “Most of those people are coming in because business want to bring in labour and universities want to bring in students…Legal migration is now increasingly out of control of the govt.”
Now Abbott is pretending to be Sally McManus
Barney
She certainly was very active tho’. She seemed to be everywhere.
Friends who went to one fundraiser (the one with Bishop) said it was poorly attended. Might have been the $2000 entry.
I reckon she will stick it out unless told to go away. And I reckon she will do better next election.
GG
Nil all draw sounds about right
Of course it can still depend on Matthew Guy and whatever his hysterical response is going to be.
He does display tunnel vision in spades
Josh Taylor
Verified account @joshgnosis
2m2 minutes ago
Called it: Abbott says that a Shorten Labor government would be the “most left wing” government in history.
The other issue the LNP have to address quick smart is funding for catholic Schools. In both Batman and Longman last minute letters were distributed to Catholic voters urging a vote for Labor. In both these seats, Labors final vote was above pre poll estimates.
Simon² Katich® @ #141 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 9:39 am
Well, it would be quite hard not to, wouldn’t it?
P1
yes, well, OK. OK.
Apologies for STBO.
Bill getting on the front foot :
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/30/if-company-tax-cuts-ditched-turnbull-should-go-with-them-shorten-says
Victoria @ #142 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 9:41 am
Vic,
Victoria has just leapt to the best performing economy in the country because of population growth and massive infra structure spending and employment growth. When the election is held, these will be the top of mind issues that will resonate with voters.
Corruption allegations and alleged marauding African Gangs sell newspapers but aren’t game changers at the minute.
Zoidlord @ #143 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 9:41 am
That whirring noise you hear is Whitlam spinning in his grave. Along with various leaders of other Labor governments. 🙂
Shorten certainly wasn’t on the ABC news that I was listening to, BigA.