Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll caps a weekend of status quo by-election results with a status quo poll result.

I’d have thought Newspoll might have had the week off, but The Australian reports that the latest instalment has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 7%. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 48%, Bill Shoten is steady on 32% and up one to 57%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 48-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1704.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. Just wondering whether the (somewhat over) reaction of the CPG is due to their pissoffedness at being leaned upon from the “plush ministerial offices” to participate in the Kill Bill exercise. Now free to go somewhat feral?,/i>

    Nah, it’s just that Rumble Trumble is now the easiest narrative to follow. Journos are herd animals.

  2. I’m kinda glad that Alan Jones is using his talent on behalf of Abbott’s return. It couldn’t be put to a more pointless use. 🙂

  3. Another derivative effort from the H-Sun’s Knight: Pope did the same (Tarantino) Kill
    Bill parody with Michaelia Cash a couple of months ago.

    The little pig making a sotto voce comment in the bottom of many of Knight’s cartoons is
    also a (ahem) homage: this is also the trademark of Pat Oliphant (an Adelaide
    raised, American cartoonist), though he uses a little penguin.

    (Part 2 in an occasional commentary series on editorial cartoons …)

  4. In a macarbe sort of way I hope they do dump Turnbull for Abbott or Dutton as it would be a total rout of the coalition at the next election not just a beating. The coalition were going off a cliff with Abbott as PM……at an election it would be the LNP are skydiving without the parachutes.

  5. A country that would tolerate a government right wing enough for Credlin, Bolt and Jones would be taking a lot of steps down the road to fascism.

  6. Greensborough Growler @ #966 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 9:18 pm

    DaretoTread @ #965 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 9:10 pm

    Andrew_Earlwood @ #915 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 7:58 pm

    I first met Graham Richardson at a Young Labor dinner at Emads. I was sat next to Mark Greenhill opposite Graham.

    About 8 years later I had my bucks dinner there.

    The year Andrew

    Before 1972?

    Were you the girl that burst out of the cake?

    Such a compliment GG

    Never thought I had the figure or grace to leap out of cakes, but thanks anyway.

  7. DaretoTread @ #969 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 9:22 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #966 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 9:18 pm

    DaretoTread @ #965 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 9:10 pm

    Andrew_Earlwood @ #915 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 7:58 pm

    I first met Graham Richardson at a Young Labor dinner at Emads. I was sat next to Mark Greenhill opposite Graham.

    About 8 years later I had my bucks dinner there.

    The year Andrew

    Before 1972?

    Were you the girl that burst out of the cake?

    Such a compliment GG

    Never thought I had the figure or grace to leap out of cakes, but thanks anyway.

    After you, they learnt to instruct the chef to put the dancer in the cake after they’d made it!

  8. Zoidlord @ #952 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 8:48 pm

    Thousands download 3D-printed gun designs
    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-45018513?ocid=socialflow_twitter

    How people in US can be so dumb?

    What, for downloading the designs when most of them probably don’t even own a 3d printer? No idea. People do stupid things sometimes. U.S. people especially.

    In any case, I see nothing wrong with downloading the designs. Knowledge of how to make a firearm isn’t a firearm, and trying to outlaw knowledge is futile. The same people downloading the 3d print files could just as easily log onto the patent office website and get detailed plans and schematics for building all sorts of firearms and other weapons. That info is all public knowledge and has been for decades.

    There should be a big difference, legally speaking, between knowing how to make a gun (perfectly fine) and actually making one (better have all the right permits, including ones that let you legally posses a complete, working gun of the type that you’re making).

  9. “That was the Abbott government from 2013-2015. Were you in hibernation during that period.”

    While arguably that might have been the best way to spend that period, I wasn’t hibernating. From what I can see, Turnbull is just continuing Abbott policies, the main differences being style. Turnbull is also less crazy than a cut snake. The right seems to have hardened up in the last few years. Even Abbott felt he had to pretend to address climate change, for example. Now the right feel much more unleashed.

  10. What LNP voters just don’t want to accept. New research: Abbott and Turnbull the worst economic managers since Menzies | Greg Jericho
    Nice to see McMahon’s legacy is finally put into context, (sad to say).

    How would this government cope with a GFC, or the dollar at US$1.10?

  11. How would this government cope with a GFC, or the dollar at US$1.10?

    Same as it deals with everything. Terribly. (with a strong wiff of corruption, and largely insulated from the political consequences by our media)

  12. Kenny, Credlin, Latham and Murray are just doing it for the money.

    It is surprising that Alan Jones lost no skin by backing in murderers like Andrew Kazajlich and Roger Rogerson and corrupt politicians like Ian MacDonald. Must be the spoon feeding of people want they want to hear.

  13. “How would this government cope with a GFC, or the dollar at US$1.10?”

    They’d blame Labour. They’d blame unions. They’d blame African gangs. They’d blame “dole bludgers”. They’d blame political correctness. And they’d blame Bill Shorten.

    And they’d lie.

  14. As I’ve previously said, I think that Labor have suffered in the polls, if you can even call it that, by being forced to focus entirely on the by elections. I believe that now the by elections are over, and especially now given the results, that Labor will, and is, regaining the political momentum. I will not be all surprised to see the polls edge back to 52 or 53 to Labor in the coming weeks.

  15. GG @ 9.07 pm

    Re the apparent backdown on the My Health Record system, my guess is that the AMA threatened to take it down in a screaming heap, either by encouraging doctors not to use it, or encouraging ordinary people to opt out until it had been fixed. Faced with such a threat, Mr Hunt would have had no choice but to give in, as he otherwise would have been forced to defend his having turned the system into a very expensive white elephant.

    But there are still some unresolved issues. In particular, the report suggests that the AMA was only pressing for the opt out period to be extended by a month. That’s plainly not at all satisfactory: if the legislation is to be significantly amended, people should have a right to know how the system will work before they have to make a decision to stay in or opt out. The government at the minimum should extend the opt out period until at least 3 months after the amendments have passed the Parliament and come into effect.

    They should also have their feet held to the fire on the question of why access should still be permitted, even with a court order, to such a wide range of government bodies. The limitations and safeguards should certainly be at least as strong as any which apply to protect legal professional privilege.

    Hopefully there will be a Senate committee inquiry into an amending Bill, at which issues which should have been considered years ago will be properly aired. The bureaucrats tasked with running the system have plainly been doing a lot of dissembling.

  16. Kristina Keneally
    @KKeneally
    ·
    4h
    If you read just one piece of political analysis this day (or week), make it ⁦this ⁦@gpaddymanning⁩ reflection ……

    Corrupting Canberra
    themonthly.com.au

  17. Dalexander Owner
    Something that has always amazed me about young Lexy Fishnets is that his granddad was born in 1843. The breeding age of a Downer must be Galapagos Island Tortoise style.

  18. poroti

    I looked it up the other day – Granpa Downer had a second marriage, and Alexander’s father was nearly 40 years younger than his oldest brother.

  19. The leader of the free world is on another twitter rampage, he did 37 on one day recently and is going at it again today. Here is an example, helpfully put into a more official form by @RealPressSecretay bot..

  20. This really got me laughing too!

    Conversation
    Rick Wilson
    Rick Wilson
    @TheRickWilson
    Ha. Ha. Hahahahahahahaahahhahahahahahhaahahahahahahahaahahahahahahahahahahahhqhwhwhwhwhwhwwhhaahahahhahahahahahaha.

    Donald J. Trump
    @realDonaldTrump
    I am looking into 3-D Plastic Guns being sold to the public. Already spoke to NRA, doesn’t seem to make much sense!
    10:15 PM · Jul 31, 2018

    Robert Rio
    @RobertRio22
    ·
    5s
    Replying to @TheRickWilson
    Jokes on him I had a 3-D plastic gun in 1967.

  21. Just some thoughts on Saturday
    These by-elections felt very 2016 election to me in the run up the coverage was very much pro Turnbull coalition, and very negative for Labor and Bill Shorten, with the leadershit stuff.

    With the 2016 election I had pretty much bought what the media were saying, that the coalition were gonna get back in easily, but saying I was surprised by the result would be an understatement.

    With these by-elections though, I was not surprised with the results, even though I was nervous, but had a feeling with 2016 in mind that the media were completely off with this one.
    All of Turnbulls insults at Shorten were aired day after day, I knew that this was not going to impress most voters, it just seemed petty and desperate.

    This time around it looks like the media have responded far more strongly against the coalition compared to what happened in the 2016 election, wonder how long it will last though until they start obsessing over personal poll ratings.

  22. Fess

    I can only imagine if Julia Gillard or Kevin Rudd had approved the 443 million dollar payment under the guise of some obscure foundation

  23. Steve and others

    Thanks for posting that link to the pictorial history of the Downers. First Dog on the Moon is a national treasure.

    Poroti

    I was thinking the same about the Downers. Granddad to Grandson’s birth was 108 years! But granddad had a second marriage and Alick was born when he was 67.

  24. Victoria @ #997 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 8:21 pm

    Fess

    I can only imagine if Julia Gillard or Kevin Rudd had approved the 443 million dollar payment under the guise of some obscure foundation

    I admit I’m very surprised this has caught the attention of some within the press gallery. Not only because the general business of parliament usually passes them by, but because Albo Made A Speech.

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