Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll caps a weekend of status quo by-election results with a status quo poll result.

I’d have thought Newspoll might have had the week off, but The Australian reports that the latest instalment has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 7%. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 48%, Bill Shoten is steady on 32% and up one to 57%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 48-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1704.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. I ask youse to show mercy because, having recently given up the fags (5 months now), I have rediscovered my appetite… to the tune of 12 kilos added cuddliness.

    “Cuddly” is what Her Indoors says, even (in a weak moment) that I’ve gotten my “cute little bottom” back. But I know “Tub Of Lard” when I see ” Tub Of Lard”.

  2. BB
    Good on you on the smoking front.
    Here is a hint that I found useful: the very next cig is not just one cig, it is the first cig of thousands.

  3. Re Kerry @6:00: That Essential poll confirms that 51-49 seems to be pretty much the go, not an aberration. The days of Labor on 53 or 54 seem over fir the time being at least.

    It also shows that Dutton is as popular as the proverbial pork chop in a certain Middle Eastern city, even among Liberal voters. The other possible challengers aren’t far ahead. Malcolm would seem secure for the time being.

  4. DareToTread… for a perverse reason I am glad you are suffering as well. I helps me shoulder the burden of living in the Oyster Capital of the Mid North Coast.

    Not that I don’t LOVE oysters, mind you.

  5. BW, don’t need encouragement. But thanks anyway.

    5 months off the durries now. Have taken to E-cigarettes instead. No fags since I had my first E-puff in February.

    In fact, hardly even resort to the E-fags anymore. Am gradually being weaned off both the addiction (that was quick!) and the oral habit (persisted longer than I thought it would).

    Pathetic? Yes, of course.

    But looking forward to a future life free of the dreaded cancer sticks.

  6. Terry McCrann articulates the new Murdoch-inspired meme of “Get Malcolm”. This is going to be ugly and brutal..

    “One of the signature disasters of Julia Gillard’s time as PM was her cringe-worthy ‘(don’t) meet the people’ visit to western Sydney. Remember that? It’s up there with Mark ‘Crusher’ Latham ‘s handshake in Labor electioneering own-goal selfies.

    In truth though, she had more ‘battler suburbs’ authenticity in her little finger than Turnbull. He really wouldn’t know someone who gets to ‘enjoy’ a two-hour drive each way from the end of the Melbourne and Sydney freeways if he, not so much tripped over them but happened to see them over the top of his iPhone or iPad.

    Power bills? I don’t get any in Canberra and Lucy looks after the ones in Sydney?

    Congestion? Surely that can be looked after by Macquarie Bank and Transurban, with a few billion thrown the way of state governments?

    And that’s how we get the complete and utterly hopeless debacle of poor old Josh Frydenberg’s National Energy Guarantee and the PM throwing $5 billion at Victoria to build a train line to the airport. Both of them exercises in combining dreadful policy with even more hopeless politics.

    Just quietly PM, yes, a train line might make it easier for tourists — and new immigrants — to get into the city. In about 10 years’ time. It will do diddly squat to relieve congestion for commuters now and actually help make it worse for them then.

    As for the NEG, it’s completely incomprehensible, apart from the fact the promise of cheaper power is beyond laughable; for so long as you and Frydenberg cling to the utter stupidity of forcing more and more useless wind into the power generation network.

    Turnbull’s ‘politics’ on both are cringeworthily hopeless, as he tries to have it every which way.”

    http://outline.com/A8A5kn

  7. I first met Graham Richardson at a Young Labor dinner at Emads. I was sat next to Mark Greenhill opposite Graham.

    About 8 years later I had my bucks dinner there.

  8. Just wondering whether the (somewhat over) reaction of the CPG is due to their pissoffedness at being leaned upon from the “plush ministerial offices” to participate in the Kill Bill exercise. Now free to go somewhat feral?

  9. Alan Jones joins the pile-on..

    @AlanJones shreds Malcolm Turnbull for #SuperSaturday bloodbath:

    “Genuine Liberal people are up in arms, and it’s no use gilding the lily… Turnbull has to go… @TonyAbbottMHR is the only leader who can beat the Labor Party if that’s what you wanna do.”

  10. Steve777 – it was (I am ashamed to admit) becoming a $250 per week habit. That is seriously fucked-up.

    But you know what? I didn’t give it up because of the expense. I gave it up simply because Her Indoors arranged for the E-cig paraphenalia to be delivered to me, ready to go: press the button and inhale.

    Never looked back since.

    Someone should write a paper on addiction. It’s not as simple as it appears to be.

  11. I’m getting to respect Alan Jones – like the cut of his jib! Some more quotes from The Parrott:

    “What brain-dead political incompetent parading as a leader allowed it to happen?” (On SuperSaturday)

    “Turnbull and Frydenberg are greener than the greens… While Turnbull is leader, these conservative votes will never come back to the Coalition.”

    “I said when he stabbed @TonyAbbottMHR in the back, for nothing other than greed an ambition, that it would end in tears. Well, it’s ended in tears and anger.”

  12. I like the pigs with wings on Corman’s truck and the 2gb on the mad monk’s

    And one of the headlights on Cormann’s truck is a shade of Terminator red!

  13. Et tu, Chris? Former Turnbull Chief of Staff and now Murdoch shill has got the memo..

    .@chriskkenny: “We’re seeing the problems Malcolm Turnbull looked like he would fall into the moment he took over from @TonyAbbottMHR.

  14. “…becoming a $250 per week habit. That is seriously fucked-up.”

    These days $250 per week is only about 8 or 9 packs of 25? That might be an approach to teens taking up smoking. Lots of people smoke a packet a day. Tell a teen that taking up smoking is like taking out a mortgage on their body that can never be repaid costing $200 a week forever.

    Then I recall there were 3 and 4 pack a day smokers. Can’t be that many now. Few rich people smoke.

  15. And like the ghoul wading in to bayonet the wounded, here comes the BeetRooter himself – how low can one man go? He was whooping it up after his own by election win with Malcolm grinning next to him.

    An opinion piece intomorrow’s SmearStralian with this teaser..

    “Barnaby Joyce warns the Coalition is in trouble and needs a ‘kick up the arse’ ”

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/barnaby-joyce-warns-coalition-needs-honest-reassessment/news-story/a27e04183ce17c94e63df8610b9d177c

  16. And Peta Credlin gives the female perspective on Mr HarbourSide Mansion..

    PETA CREDLIN: “Since the moment he entered the parliament, Malcolm Turnbull’s chased the top job as some sort of personal prize. He knifed a first-term PM, he’s alienated the base, he’s thrown conservative policies in the bin, and yet he still reckons he’s not to blame.” #auspol

  17. ““Turnbull and Frydenberg are greener than the greens… While Turnbull is leader, these conservative votes will never come back to the Coalition.”

    Does Alan think they’ll go to Labor or the Greens? They’ll go to One Nation, Bernardi, LDP or neo-Nazi and come back to the Liberals via preferences, although some confused right wing votes might inadvertently leak to Labor.

    So I think Alan is talking out of his rear end, but I hope he keeps it up.

  18. Jones has been keeping it up since Turnbull replaced Abbott. I don’t expect he will let up any time soon. He has a specific audience who lap it all up.

  19. You’d have to think this crescendo of criticism must peel off some votes of a Turnbull Government. Not all first preferences they lose will come back, given the ‘low information’ cohort who would normally take the blue HTV and copy it onto the ballot paper.

    As has been analysed by Kevin Bonham and others, the first preference for a non-LNP can mean a scattering of preferences (what are they anyway?) or at best, an informal.

  20. Josh Butler
    ‏Verified account @JoshButler
    8m8 minutes ago

    Greg Hunt announces privacy changes to My Health
    Says My Health Record Act laws will be changed to make sure police and government can’t access without court order; also changes to allow permanent deletion of a person’s record #MyHealthRecord

  21. Credlin, Jones, Bolt etc are all just embittered low-rent, low-information conservatives who are still seething because they, their philosophy and their stooge were dumped by his party.
    Every single comment they make is explained by that simple truth.

  22. “Re Rowe. Are/would they be rosary beads hanging in the front or is it some other truckie thing?”

    Not a catholic thing. They are the two way radio handset cords. A truckie thing.

  23. Sorry to keep posting Alan Jones comments, but he is really losing his shit on SkyFoxNews..

    .@AlanJones: Somone’s got to stand up in the party room and say ‘I’m not going over the cliff with you, the elephant in the room is you @TurnbullMalcolm.’ He took them there last time.‘

  24. “They are the two way radio handset cords. A truckie thing.”
    Do they still use CB radio in the days of mobile phones etc? And are they allowed to use one while they are driving?

  25. Diogenes @ #921 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 8:37 pm

    Credlin, Jones, Bolt etc are all just embittered low-rent, low-information conservatives who are still seething because they, their philosophy and their stooge were dumped by his party.
    Every single comment they make is explained by that simple truth.

    Agree! Malcolm will just say boo!

  26. Andrew_Earlwood

    By gollie you are right. There is a mike next to both of them and Tones’ has 2GB on it. Thank you for solving the puzzle.

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