I’d have thought Newspoll might have had the week off, but The Australian reports that the latest instalment has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 7%. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 48%, Bill Shoten is steady on 32% and up one to 57%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 48-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1704.
Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor
Newspoll caps a weekend of status quo by-election results with a status quo poll result.
A retired engineer…
C@tmomma @ 2.19pm
On Colbert last week he said he’s considering running for President (at about 9 minutes in):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZqaJI2RKYI
The greens preferences flow strongly = 90% – to the ALP.
The PHON preferences only flow 60% to the Coalition.
The higher PHON get votes the more likely the coalition will lose a seat.
With polls now consistently showing 51-49, I think rumours of the death of the Turnbull Government are exaggerated. Better 51-49 than 49-51, but a 2% lead is eminently overtakeable, especially when you control buckets of taxpayer money and your mates run most of the media.
BW @ 3.21
I take your point. But I’m not predicting the outcome of the next election, just drawing a conclusion that, on the total swing, the outcome of the by-election was more significantly bad for the Coalition than would first appear.
So is it actually on or not?
I’m impressed by the artistic skills of these people.
http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/priceless-2800-year-old-royal-gold-jewellery-stash-boasting-some-3000-items-is-found-inside-a-burial-mound-in-remote-kazakhstan-mountains/ar-BBLhnGs?li=AAgfYrC&ocid=HPDHP17
Lizzie,
Did they find also Tony Abbott’s leadership aspirations which he said, “were dead, buried and cremated”.
Asking for a friend.
Just an update on the supposed leadership spill: it appears to indeed be a complete fabrication, like we thought. My apologies for responding to it in the first place.
As far as I know there’s only one twitter account making the same claims as contained in Robert Ball’s comments, and they blocked me for this: https://twitter.com/calumniousfox/status/1024156260780859392
I guess Turnbull still hasnt popped up to explain himself. goodness if this was Julia Gillard, the pitchforks would be out by now
Mr Denmore
@MrDenmore
1h1 hour ago
More Mr Denmore Retweeted Hugh Riminton
Half a billion dollars of taxpayers money handed with zero scrutiny to bankers and miners to ‘protect the reef’. And this from a government that bullies welfare recipients over a couple of hundred bucks in over-payments in the name of fiscal rectitude. It just beggars belief.Mr Denmore added,
Hugh Riminton
Verified account
@hughriminton
This is a staggering story:
“PM personally approved $443m fund for tiny Barrier Reef foundation” https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/30/malcolm-turnbull-present-when-443-million-dollars-offered-to-small-group-without-tender-inquiry-hears?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other …
ItzaDream says Tuesday, July 31, 2018 at 12:59 pm
There might well be a whiff of payback too.
ratsak says Tuesday, July 31, 2018 at 2:06 pm
Don’t forget the children overboard stories, although I would call them a cygnet rather than a black swan.
To change either leader now would be electoral suicide for the party that does it. For all the opinion polling out there, there is nobody who could step in and have a significant likelihood of getting more votes than the incumbent leader of each party at the next election.
Barring a traffic accident or the like, the only possibility of a leadership change before the next election, whenever it is held, is if one of the parties suddenly gets consistent dire polling results and disastrous reporting to go with it – Like 2013 or in New Zealand. Then it’s high risk or saving the furniture. Otherwise, no.
bc
I’d vote for it being a large plate of cold revenge.
I am surprised at the turn around by the CPG. My guess was that they had jumped on the Kill-Bill bandwagon because they were being players, and hoping to convince people that Shorten was going to be toast after the by-elections, making it so.
Instead, they seem genuinely surprised by the results of the by-elections, and almost seem like people who feel they have been taken for fools. I wonder if a bit of disinformation has started making its way around the CPG, assuming that doom and gloom in the media will translate to votes against Labor?
Re leadership change to save the furniture.
Shorten appears to have a group behind him rowing in the same general direction.
Turnbull has half a dozen deputies all pulling in different directions and yelling instructions. If they copy Labor, they can get back in the race. The answer – keep looking after the big boys and blow debt sky high !!!
GG
Always the wit, aren’t you. 🙂
I haver also laughed about the “Senior Labor Figures”. We have a large number of Sydney-based political journos around here, in the city’s southern fringe. You can find many a “senior” Labor figure propping up a bar at the many locals around here.
I know quite a few of them. Interesting people, who I have an enormous amount of time for, but who may not be as “insider” as they used to be.
A small bit of trivia – Al Grassby lived in the inner city suburb of Alexandria in the latter part of his life. There were strong links between Alexandria / Redfern / Waterloo and the Riverina in the mid-20th century. The most excellent Marie Bashir (also Her Excellency of course) came from Griffith, but spent her school holidays in Redfern.
When I first moved here, the Lebanese food was cheap, ubiquitous and amazing. Almost all gone now unfortunately, but the Thai and Vietnamese food is excellent.
Albo, not amused at being used and abused by The Oz et al.
Learns that if you play in that pigpen you come up smelling of pigshite.
Let’s hope that he minds his p’s and q’s from here on in.
Mr ED
‘Shorten appears to have a group behind him rowing in the same general direction.’
The Greens talk progressive theory but do nothing but drag the real chain.
Labor is promising to deliver the most swingeing progressive reforms since Whitlam.
Bar none.
It is why KillBill is so important to the Filthies.
An interesting look at how culture of the colonists in different regions of the US reflect voting patterns today.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/30/opinion/urban-rural-united-states-regions-midterms.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-left-region®ion=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region
Time Colebatch with his very sobering analysis of the SuperSaturday by elections. Not good for the LNP and Malcolm Turnbull especially.
http://insidestory.org.au/what-it-means-to-lose-the-political-centre/
Guiliani says collusion is not a crime
Americans really elected a criminal master mind as their President. A huge majority of those who voted for Trump are really ‘deplorables’ like him.
https://amp-smh-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.smh.com.au/world/north-america/giuliani-just-obliterated-the-goal-posts-on-trump-russia-collusion-20180731-p4zuiy.html?amp_js_v=a2&_gsa=1#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.smh.com.au%2Fworld%2Fnorth-america%2Fgiuliani-just-obliterated-the-goal-posts-on-trump-russia-collusion-20180731-p4zuiy.html
Ven says: Tuesday, July 31, 2018 at 5:13 pm
Guiliani says collusion is not a crime
*****************************************************************
GG
Excellent article, IMO.
@GG
Great article by Tim Colebatch, thanks for posting:
V
Oh what a tangled web we weave…
poroti @ #371 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 5:09 pm
Fascinating article
Not sure how true it is but interesting all the same!!!!!
GG
Thanks for the Colebatch article. Spot on!
I’ll second that. Colebatch hit the nail on the head.
Douglas & Milko
You are of course forgetting about Abduls, on the corner of Elizabeth and Cleveland, Redfern.
Lebbo food to dream about, and not too expensive.
Paddy Manning alerts us the creeping corruption of the body politic in Australia.
https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2018/31/2018/1533005006/corrupting-canberra
GG
The Turnbull Government’s corruption ain’t creeping. It’s galloping.
The full Essential poll is now up.
http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Essential-Report-310718-1.pdf
Hola Bludgers! Speaking to you after just having finished a delicious Sizzling Sweet and Sour Fish in Chinatown and just before settling in to listen to Thomas Frank in conversation with Swanny and KK.
Bliss!
@BB
You are right of course, and Fatima’s is still there a bit further east on Elizabeth street. And we still have Wilsons, the first Lebanese restaurant in Sydney, Cnr Redfern and Pitt Street. Apparently the first “Wilson” was named after Woodrow Wilson” who supported the self-determination of cultural minorities.
Douglas and Milko @ #886 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 6:24 pm
Abduls I hope is still there and upmarket Emad’s.
Now D&M
When was Wilson’s opened? Emad’s was very early too. I first went there in late 1972. I did not get to Wilsons until 1974, but it had been going a while.
For personal reasons that I will not bore you with, the timing of Emad’s opening led to a full on row with a boss, who accused me of having dementia. Repulsive bloody God doctor.
When I first went to Abduls it has a squiffy menu – Abdul’s Lebaneque Restaurant. Always laughed. Bloody wonderful food.
Shorten crushed Turnbull in Longman, but in latest essential, Coal 41 primary (down 1 on 2016 elect) and Labor 36 ( only up 1 on 2016 ), Green 10 unchanged and One Nation 6 ( up 5 from 2016). Don’t know what to make of it but Turnbull needs to learn how to campaign better and attack more Labor’s weak points or something. Looking at the leader polling, you couldn’t swap Turnbull at the moment on those numbers, while Albo still lurks looking at the Labor numbers but think he is cooked now for some time.
They are biased towards laziness. It is much easier to confect a leadership tension story than to knuckle down and learn policy.
Most journalists these days are generalists who are generally bad at informing people. They aren’t trained and mentored properly. They provide a form of light entertainment that appeals to people’s prejudices but doesn’t provide useful information. People like Mr Denmore should be the norm in journalism; instead they become independent writers with no organization to back them up.
I wonder what the market is in Australia for interesting, well-produced, high quality multi-media journalism. Surely there must be an affordable price point that could entice enough people to make it financially viable to assemble a monthly subscription online platform of writers and producers and make sure they are paid fairly. Perhaps if it were structured as a cooperative it would be more viable than mainstream media organizations because they would not need to waste money on dividends, share buybacks, or bloated executive pay. If we made the activities of this organization tax-free and even provided a federal government grant to get it started, perhaps it could happen. It could be a training ground and a community of practice for people who want to do real journalism. I think a Labor Government should consider doing this – it would cost very little in the context of the federal government $490 billion of annual expenditure. It would be much cheaper than that Great Barrier Reef thing and it would be much more useful.
We could do this in addition to improving the ABC.
The food at Abduls was always magnificent – fresh, delicious and cheap.
The decor left something to be desired, but only if you were a Sydney wanker who believed in obsequious waiters and intricate cabinetry, Plastic wood veneer is what you get at Abdul’s. Like it or lump it.
However, the downstairs toilet was always pure Old Beirut. You could practically see the footprints on the seat from the “kangaroo-ing”, and of course, the cigarette butt burns that had melted the plastic.
But always – always – the food. Wonderful, laid on in lashings and perfect.
Although not a veggo, I have never eaten a meat dish at Abdul’s. Always, I have ordered the Vegetarian Mixed Plate. You can die and know you’re going to heaven after eating that. Add a side order of Coriander Potato, with a side-side-order of Fried Cauliflower and you will rest in Heaven forever. Fresh Lebbo bread, bitter olives, even bitterer, salty, green pickled capsicums and Abdul’s special Lemon Drink (mixed half-and-half with sparkling mineral water).
Who needs wine? Who needs even Life after eating at Abduls? Your existence is already complete.
@DTT
I will check this out, especially as it is local history. Unfortunately tonight is a busy work night for me, so back to work now. But I will chase this up.
And I would just about kill now for some dolmades, hummus, bread, baba ganoush, foul medames ……
I live on the NSW Mid North Coast. Paradise &etc. and all that BUT… Nothing up here even like a Lebbo restaurant. Abdul’s is 4 hours drive away. I’m tempted…
Abdul’s dolmades are like no other dolmades. Their falafels are totally, scrumptiously unique, as far as I can tell.
On a slow night, enjoy some Stephen Colbert dissecting Rudy Gulliani
https://youtu.be/66Xe2X8b5OM
Bushfire Bill @ #890 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 7:01 pm
They used to have Ladies fingers – mince in filo
yum
Are you trying to torture me, DareToTread?
… because if you are, mention the baklava.
The government is back in the race, barely, with a primary vote of 40% plus.