Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll caps a weekend of status quo by-election results with a status quo poll result.

I’d have thought Newspoll might have had the week off, but The Australian reports that the latest instalment has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 7%. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 48%, Bill Shoten is steady on 32% and up one to 57%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 48-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1704.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. A retired engineer…

    @DobroBloke: Sat in on an ALP Town Hall meeting with Bill Shorten. I was very skeptical at the start but having seen the genuine responses he gave convinced me he is a leader with integrity and will work for a better Australia #auspol

  2. The greens preferences flow strongly = 90% – to the ALP.

    The PHON preferences only flow 60% to the Coalition.

    The higher PHON get votes the more likely the coalition will lose a seat.

  3. With polls now consistently showing 51-49, I think rumours of the death of the Turnbull Government are exaggerated. Better 51-49 than 49-51, but a 2% lead is eminently overtakeable, especially when you control buckets of taxpayer money and your mates run most of the media.

  4. BW @ 3.21

    I take your point. But I’m not predicting the outcome of the next election, just drawing a conclusion that, on the total swing, the outcome of the by-election was more significantly bad for the Coalition than would first appear.

  5. I’m impressed by the artistic skills of these people.

    An astonishing stash of 2,800-year-old gold jewellery has been unearthed by archaeologists in Kazakhstan.

    Some 3,000 golden and precious items were found in a burial mound in the remote Tarbagatai mountains.

    The treasure trove – described as ‘priceless’ – is believed to belong to royal or elite members of the Saka people who held sway in central Asia eight centuries before the birth of Christ.

    Among the finds are earrings in the shape of bells, gold plates with rivets, plaques, chains, and a necklace with precious stones.

    Gold beads decorating clothes were made with the use of sophisticated micro-soldering techniques, indicating an exceptional level of development jewellery-making skills for the period.

    http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/priceless-2800-year-old-royal-gold-jewellery-stash-boasting-some-3000-items-is-found-inside-a-burial-mound-in-remote-kazakhstan-mountains/ar-BBLhnGs?li=AAgfYrC&ocid=HPDHP17

  6. Lizzie,

    Did they find also Tony Abbott’s leadership aspirations which he said, “were dead, buried and cremated”.

    Asking for a friend.

  7. I guess Turnbull still hasnt popped up to explain himself. goodness if this was Julia Gillard, the pitchforks would be out by now

    Mr Denmore

    @MrDenmore
    1h1 hour ago
    More Mr Denmore Retweeted Hugh Riminton
    Half a billion dollars of taxpayers money handed with zero scrutiny to bankers and miners to ‘protect the reef’. And this from a government that bullies welfare recipients over a couple of hundred bucks in over-payments in the name of fiscal rectitude. It just beggars belief.Mr Denmore added,
    Hugh Riminton
    Verified account

    @hughriminton
    This is a staggering story:
    “PM personally approved $443m fund for tiny Barrier Reef foundation” https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/30/malcolm-turnbull-present-when-443-million-dollars-offered-to-small-group-without-tender-inquiry-hears?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  8. ItzaDream says Tuesday, July 31, 2018 at 12:59 pm

    There’s a whiff of atonement in the air.

    There might well be a whiff of payback too.

  9. ratsak says Tuesday, July 31, 2018 at 2:06 pm

    Not just that FalconWA. First Howard threw as many unpopular policies overboard and money at the voters. Then MV Tampa sailed across the horizon.

    So massive u-turn and bribe fest. Then Black Swan. Then Black Swan mk11.

    The idiot Trumble has ruled out a U-turn on the real poison in Corporate Tax cuts.

    He’s gonna need a flock of really Black Black Swans to save his sorry arse.

    Don’t forget the children overboard stories, although I would call them a cygnet rather than a black swan.

  10. To change either leader now would be electoral suicide for the party that does it. For all the opinion polling out there, there is nobody who could step in and have a significant likelihood of getting more votes than the incumbent leader of each party at the next election.

    Barring a traffic accident or the like, the only possibility of a leadership change before the next election, whenever it is held, is if one of the parties suddenly gets consistent dire polling results and disastrous reporting to go with it – Like 2013 or in New Zealand. Then it’s high risk or saving the furniture. Otherwise, no.

  11. I am surprised at the turn around by the CPG. My guess was that they had jumped on the Kill-Bill bandwagon because they were being players, and hoping to convince people that Shorten was going to be toast after the by-elections, making it so.

    Instead, they seem genuinely surprised by the results of the by-elections, and almost seem like people who feel they have been taken for fools. I wonder if a bit of disinformation has started making its way around the CPG, assuming that doom and gloom in the media will translate to votes against Labor?

  12. Re leadership change to save the furniture.
    Shorten appears to have a group behind him rowing in the same general direction.
    Turnbull has half a dozen deputies all pulling in different directions and yelling instructions. If they copy Labor, they can get back in the race. The answer – keep looking after the big boys and blow debt sky high !!!

  13. I haver also laughed about the “Senior Labor Figures”. We have a large number of Sydney-based political journos around here, in the city’s southern fringe. You can find many a “senior” Labor figure propping up a bar at the many locals around here.

    I know quite a few of them. Interesting people, who I have an enormous amount of time for, but who may not be as “insider” as they used to be.

    A small bit of trivia – Al Grassby lived in the inner city suburb of Alexandria in the latter part of his life. There were strong links between Alexandria / Redfern / Waterloo and the Riverina in the mid-20th century. The most excellent Marie Bashir (also Her Excellency of course) came from Griffith, but spent her school holidays in Redfern.

    When I first moved here, the Lebanese food was cheap, ubiquitous and amazing. Almost all gone now unfortunately, but the Thai and Vietnamese food is excellent.

  14. Albo, not amused at being used and abused by The Oz et al.

    Learns that if you play in that pigpen you come up smelling of pigshite.

    Let’s hope that he minds his p’s and q’s from here on in.

  15. Mr ED

    ‘Shorten appears to have a group behind him rowing in the same general direction.’

    The Greens talk progressive theory but do nothing but drag the real chain.
    Labor is promising to deliver the most swingeing progressive reforms since Whitlam.
    Bar none.
    It is why KillBill is so important to the Filthies.

  16. An interesting look at how culture of the colonists in different regions of the US reflect voting patterns today.

    City vs. Country Is Not Our Political Fault Line

    The key difference is among regional cultures tracing back to the nation’s colonization.

    ………………Rather, our true regional fissures can be traced back to the contrasting ideals of the distinct European colonial cultures that first took root on the eastern and southern rims of what is now the United States, and then spread across much of the continent in mutually exclusive settlement
    ………….Look at county-level maps of almost any closely contested presidential race in our history, and you see much the same fault lines: the swaths of the country first colonized by the early Puritans and their descendants — Yankeedom — tend to vote as one, and against the party in favor in the sections first colonized by the culture laid down by the Barbados slave lords who founded Charleston, S.C., or the Scots-Irish frontiersmen who swept down the Appalachian highlands and on into…,

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/30/opinion/urban-rural-united-states-regions-midterms.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-left-region&region=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region

  17. Ven says: Tuesday, July 31, 2018 at 5:13 pm

    Guiliani says collusion is not a crime

    *****************************************************************

  18. @GG

    Great article by Tim Colebatch, thanks for posting:

    There have been just twenty-nine contests where a two-party swing can be estimated, and they have produced wide-ranging results. But until Saturday, the average swing to the opposition in by-elections in its own seats was just 1.5 per cent.

  19. poroti @ #371 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 5:09 pm

    An interesting look at how culture of the colonists in different regions of the US reflect voting patterns today.

    City vs. Country Is Not Our Political Fault Line

    The key difference is among regional cultures tracing back to the nation’s colonization.

    ………………Rather, our true regional fissures can be traced back to the contrasting ideals of the distinct European colonial cultures that first took root on the eastern and southern rims of what is now the United States, and then spread across much of the continent in mutually exclusive settlement
    ………….Look at county-level maps of almost any closely contested presidential race in our history, and you see much the same fault lines: the swaths of the country first colonized by the early Puritans and their descendants — Yankeedom — tend to vote as one, and against the party in favor in the sections first colonized by the culture laid down by the Barbados slave lords who founded Charleston, S.C., or the Scots-Irish frontiersmen who swept down the Appalachian highlands and on into…,

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/30/opinion/urban-rural-united-states-regions-midterms.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-left-region&region=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region

    Fascinating article

    Not sure how true it is but interesting all the same!!!!!

  20. Douglas & Milko

    When I first moved here, the Lebanese food was cheap, ubiquitous and amazing. Almost all gone now unfortunately, but the Thai and Vietnamese food is excellent.

    You are of course forgetting about Abduls, on the corner of Elizabeth and Cleveland, Redfern.

    Lebbo food to dream about, and not too expensive.

  21. Hola Bludgers! Speaking to you after just having finished a delicious Sizzling Sweet and Sour Fish in Chinatown and just before settling in to listen to Thomas Frank in conversation with Swanny and KK.
    Bliss!

  22. @BB

    You are of course forgetting about Abduls, on the corner of Elizabeth and Cleveland, Redfern.

    Lebbo food to dream about, and not too expensive.

    You are right of course, and Fatima’s is still there a bit further east on Elizabeth street. And we still have Wilsons, the first Lebanese restaurant in Sydney, Cnr Redfern and Pitt Street. Apparently the first “Wilson” was named after Woodrow Wilson” who supported the self-determination of cultural minorities.

  23. Douglas and Milko @ #886 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 6:24 pm

    @BB

    You are of course forgetting about Abduls, on the corner of Elizabeth and Cleveland, Redfern.

    Lebbo food to dream about, and not too expensive.

    You are right of course, and Fatima’s is still there a bit further east on Elizabeth street. And we still have Wilsons, the first Lebanese restaurant in Sydney, Cnr Redfern and Pitt Street. Apparently the first “Wilson” was named after Woodrow Wilson” who supported the self-determination of cultural minorities.

    Abduls I hope is still there and upmarket Emad’s.

    Now D&M

    When was Wilson’s opened? Emad’s was very early too. I first went there in late 1972. I did not get to Wilsons until 1974, but it had been going a while.

    For personal reasons that I will not bore you with, the timing of Emad’s opening led to a full on row with a boss, who accused me of having dementia. Repulsive bloody God doctor.

  24. When I first went to Abduls it has a squiffy menu – Abdul’s Lebaneque Restaurant. Always laughed. Bloody wonderful food.

  25. Shorten crushed Turnbull in Longman, but in latest essential, Coal 41 primary (down 1 on 2016 elect) and Labor 36 ( only up 1 on 2016 ), Green 10 unchanged and One Nation 6 ( up 5 from 2016). Don’t know what to make of it but Turnbull needs to learn how to campaign better and attack more Labor’s weak points or something. Looking at the leader polling, you couldn’t swap Turnbull at the moment on those numbers, while Albo still lurks looking at the Labor numbers but think he is cooked now for some time.

  26. the media for reasons of bias amd/or incompetence have read far more into it than was there

    They are biased towards laziness. It is much easier to confect a leadership tension story than to knuckle down and learn policy.

    Most journalists these days are generalists who are generally bad at informing people. They aren’t trained and mentored properly. They provide a form of light entertainment that appeals to people’s prejudices but doesn’t provide useful information. People like Mr Denmore should be the norm in journalism; instead they become independent writers with no organization to back them up.

    I wonder what the market is in Australia for interesting, well-produced, high quality multi-media journalism. Surely there must be an affordable price point that could entice enough people to make it financially viable to assemble a monthly subscription online platform of writers and producers and make sure they are paid fairly. Perhaps if it were structured as a cooperative it would be more viable than mainstream media organizations because they would not need to waste money on dividends, share buybacks, or bloated executive pay. If we made the activities of this organization tax-free and even provided a federal government grant to get it started, perhaps it could happen. It could be a training ground and a community of practice for people who want to do real journalism. I think a Labor Government should consider doing this – it would cost very little in the context of the federal government $490 billion of annual expenditure. It would be much cheaper than that Great Barrier Reef thing and it would be much more useful.

    We could do this in addition to improving the ABC.

  27. The food at Abduls was always magnificent – fresh, delicious and cheap.

    The decor left something to be desired, but only if you were a Sydney wanker who believed in obsequious waiters and intricate cabinetry, Plastic wood veneer is what you get at Abdul’s. Like it or lump it.

    However, the downstairs toilet was always pure Old Beirut. You could practically see the footprints on the seat from the “kangaroo-ing”, and of course, the cigarette butt burns that had melted the plastic.

    But always – always – the food. Wonderful, laid on in lashings and perfect.

    Although not a veggo, I have never eaten a meat dish at Abdul’s. Always, I have ordered the Vegetarian Mixed Plate. You can die and know you’re going to heaven after eating that. Add a side order of Coriander Potato, with a side-side-order of Fried Cauliflower and you will rest in Heaven forever. Fresh Lebbo bread, bitter olives, even bitterer, salty, green pickled capsicums and Abdul’s special Lemon Drink (mixed half-and-half with sparkling mineral water).

    Who needs wine? Who needs even Life after eating at Abduls? Your existence is already complete.

  28. @DTT

    When was Wilson’s opened? Emad’s was very early too. I first went there in late 1972. I did not get to Wilsons until 1974, but it had been going a while.

    I will check this out, especially as it is local history. Unfortunately tonight is a busy work night for me, so back to work now. But I will chase this up.

  29. I live on the NSW Mid North Coast. Paradise &etc. and all that BUT… Nothing up here even like a Lebbo restaurant. Abdul’s is 4 hours drive away. I’m tempted…

  30. Bushfire Bill @ #890 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 7:01 pm

    The food at Abduls was always magnificent – fresh, delicious and cheap.

    The decor left something to be desired, but only if you were a Sydney wanker who believed in obsequious waiters.

    However, the downstairs toilet was always pure Old Beirut. You could practically see the footprints on the seat from the “kangaroo-ing”, and of course, the cigarette butt burns that had melted the plastic.

    But always – always – the food. Wonderful, laid on in lashings and perfect.

    Although not a veggo, I have never eaten a meat dish at Abdul’s. Always, I have ordered the Vegetarian Mixed Plate. You can die and know you’re going to heaven after eating that. Add a side order of Coriander Potato, with a side-side=order of Fried Cauliflower and you will rest in Heaven forever. Fresh Lebbo bread, bitter olives, even bitterer green pickled capsicums and Abdul’s special Lemon Drink (mixed half-and-half with sparkling mineral water).

    Who needs wine? Who needs even Life after eating at Abduls? Your existence is already complete.

    They used to have Ladies fingers – mince in filo

    yum

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