Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll caps a weekend of status quo by-election results with a status quo poll result.

I’d have thought Newspoll might have had the week off, but The Australian reports that the latest instalment has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 7%. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 48%, Bill Shoten is steady on 32% and up one to 57%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 48-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1704.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. caf

    i do recall the story vaguely. but I had no idea that this money was merely handed over with no process at all. Even small grants of $10,000.00 go through a process. Turnbull needs to explain this immediately.

  2. Darn

    have you been listening to 3aw lately? was wondering if any feedback on Vic State politics and the campaign funding investigation

  3. caf @ #797 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 1:50 pm

    This story about the lazy half billion to the dodgy reef foundation certainly stinks, but it’s not new – it first hit the media back in April/May eg:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/may/21/no-tender-process-for-444m-great-barrier-reef-grant-senate-hearing-told

    Yes, I remember thinking “odd” at the time.

    But what we didn’t know back then that this was a personal “Captain’s call” by Mal the Magnificent to his mates.

  4. I’m absolutely certain Turnbull is thrilled that Bill Shorten will remain leader.

    Rex
    I really don’t see why. Shorten has kicked his arse twice now. Are you suggesting that Turnbull is a masochist?

  5. TPOF @ #776 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 1:19 pm

    Lib-Lab don’t want any spotlight on their policy of torture and death.
    __________________________________

    I don’t usually comment on Rex’s stuff, but when the Coroner’s finding into the death of Hamid Khazaei was released I started thinking about the Malaysian People swap that his party, colluding with Tony Abbott and the Scummo, torpedoed.

    And I thought that for all the faux concerns expressed by these destroyers about the fate of refugees sent to Malaysia under very tightly agreed protocols, Mr Khazaei would have had incomparably better medical treatment and be alive today if he had been sent there instead of Manus. But Rex can go on with his impossibly perfect morals and, like Stalin’s perfect society, deaths are just a minor statistic on the way to the golden age.

    Well, it doesn’t take much effort, does it? And it provides a level of the jollies that spoilers revel in. However, as ratsak said, and as I say. All. The. Time. If you feel so intensely about something, like say the federal leader of the ALP, or the asylum seeker policy of Labor, then get off your hind legs, stop barking in the wilderness and join the party to make the change you want! Or, more colloquially, piss or get off the pot! People in The Greens can’t change the leader of the Labor Party. Anonymous posters on a politics blog can’t change the leader of the Labor Party either, no matter how many times they say it!

  6. Bingo!

    Michael Pascoe

    @MichaelPascoe01
    19h19 hours ago
    More
    Thing about AFP referral to DPP re AWU raid leak: media tip off symptomatic but small beer – the real issue is what the ROC was doing ordering the raid in the first place, whether the Federal regulator is independent or a political tool aimed at weakening ALP election chances.

  7. Brian was so terrified of winning Longman and so precipitating Labor leadershit that he campaigned personally in the seat half a dozen times or so to make sure the Lib PV swing was double digits against.

    Went above and beyond to protect Shorten as Labor leader.

  8. Ms Sackley, a social worker, is a long-time north Queensland resident with a “very strong commitment to giving struggling families a voice”, Mr Palmer said.

    So, did she stand up to Clive Palmer and tell him to pay the workers of Queensland Nickel their entitlements after he shut it down?

    And I see Palmer the Rip-off artist has bought himself a luxury apartment in Townsville. When only the best will do for the Queensland White Shoe Brigade of Trumpian Grifters.

  9. A few people have attempted to draw comparisons with the Ryan by-election swing and Longman and then saying that Howard went onto win the General Election. That GE was on Nov 10. A month before on Sept 11 the twin towers in NY were destroyed. A Black Swan event if ever there was one. Unless a Black Swan Event occurs between now and May this government is toast

  10. ratsak,
    Your incisive analysis of ratbaggery spewing out of the Canberra Press Gullery makes it all the more important to subscribe to any online alternatives which will provide even a reasonable percentage of sound, well researched journalism. To avoid spruiking for local websites, two American examples are ‘Mother Jones’ and ‘Talking Points Memo’

  11. Not just that FalconWA. First Howard threw as many unpopular policies overboard and money at the voters. Then MV Tampa sailed across the horizon.

    So massive u-turn and bribe fest. Then Black Swan. Then Black Swan mk11.

    The idiot Trumble has ruled out a U-turn on the real poison in Corporate Tax cuts.

    He’s gonna need a flock of really Black Black Swans to save his sorry arse.

  12. FalconWA @ #810 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 2:01 pm

    A few people have attempted to draw comparisons with the Ryan by-election swing and Longman and then saying that Howard went onto win the General Election. That GE was on Nov 10. A month before on Sept 11 the twin towers in NY were destroyed. A Black Swan event if ever there was one. Unless a Black Swan Event occurs between now and May this government is toast

    And. John Howard.
    Compared with. Malcolm Turnbull.

  13. FalconWA @ #810 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 2:01 pm

    A few people have attempted to draw comparisons with the Ryan by-election swing and Longman and then saying that Howard went onto win the General Election. That GE was on Nov 10. A month before on Sept 11 the twin towers in NY were destroyed. A Black Swan event if ever there was one. Unless a Black Swan Event occurs between now and May this government is toast

    Howard stopped CPI rises to petrol prices. That was the change that had his Government’s fortunes turn around post the Ryan by-election.

    Turnbull will be looking for a policy turnaround that will create the same effect. Might have something to do with a cash rebate for energy purchases using some of the Corporate tax cut money. But, I’m open to alternatives.

  14. Wasn’t it Don Watson who reckoned John Howard’s success was primarily due to his rat-like cunning? Turnbull is a cunningless rat.

  15. FalconWA,

    Not just the black swan events, but as I’ve noted on this blog before (including the by-election thread a couple of hours ago), the Labor campaign in 2001 was seriously incompetent. Turnbull can’t count on such a gift from his enemies these days (I hope).

  16. The New York Times have suggested a smokey VP running mate for whoever gets the Democrat POTUS nomination. Former Attorney General under President Obama, Eric Holder. 🙂


  17. C@tmomma @ #697 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 7:52 am

    According to Amy R the other day in the Guardian it was also supported by some from Labor’s left making noises to the Press, so it doesn’t seem it was just the speech.

    So why was it on insiders was KM excuse “Albo made a speech”, and on Q and A , LT same same. They don’t seem to want to go with noises within Labor, it is all about “albo made a speech”

  18. The trouble for Truffles is that there is likely no magic bullet that will turn things around. Even with Howard, it wasn’t just the petrol excise backflip that got him back in the game, but rather, the petrol thing was symbolic of a range of things he did to buy back favour with crucial groups and regions. Indeed, the first half of 2001 was when Howard morphed from being a budget hawk to the spendthrift late term PM that we remember now (a development that our federal budget is still affected by).

    The great myth of 2001 was that Howard started miles behind and then started a steady recovery, when in fact it went in fits and starts until August, when Tampa got all of the former One Nation voters back in the tent, and then 9/11, which made everyone think that the world was ending and so it wasn’t time to change horses. No one thing changed the narrative, but a series of things over several months (though I’d suggest that 9/11 was pretty front and centre in a lot of voters’ minds in November).

    The situation then was quite different to now. The Howard government was not especially well-liked in early 2001, but they did engender some respect as a government that “got things done” (eg GST, guns, budget repair). However, it was five years old by this time, and that’s normally the time when people start thinking about a change. They were a bit shopworn by this time, but basically still pretty together.

    By contrast, Turnbull leads a ramshackle Coalition that leaks like a sieve and demonstrates its divisions on a regular basis. On top of that, they don’t really have much of a record of achievement to rest on – indeed, there hasn’t been a single accomplishment in the last five years that they can point to. Furthermore, Howard’s trick of throwing money at interest groups will be hard to replicate, as people are a bit more cynical these days to be being bribed (even Howard found that out in 2007).

    The thing is that most swinging voters don’t really vote on policy, they vote on “the vibe”. And there are only two vibes – it’s either “throw the bastards out” or “stick with the devil you know”, and such voters will normally take the safer option of those two. It’s really hard to see how any voter could look at the Turnbull government and decide that another three years will be a good idea, though as a long-time ALP voter, I do know that my party of choice has it in them to toss golden opportunities away. But that is the point – it’s Labor’s election to lose.

  19. Super Saturday

    Winners: Shorten, 25 million Australians, Hanson and Sharkie
    Losers: Turnbull, the hundred wealthiest Australians, McCormack, Di Natale, Rex, Wayne, Peg and Albo

  20. Darn@1:53pm
    The line by Rex, which you stated in your post, is the statement repeated by die-hard supporters in SMH article and some LNP MPs in public.
    I read the exact statement in SMH posts by LNP supportets, which is clear proof that Rex is LNP insider. Rex is no greenie

    After sulking for a few days, Rex bobs up to repeat LNP talking points.

  21. I trust we are all enjoying the drought. There is more fun than you can poke a stick at.
    (1) You will enjoy watching bare dirt which used to have some biodiversity on it. (2) You will enjoy your taxes going to subsidize and reinforce lousy management. (3) You will enjoy what is essentially a protection racket to cover the banks’ rural debt holdings which are by now stratospheric. (3) You will pay more for your fruit and vegetables. (4) You will still get to enjoy hearing farmers whinge piteously about how come they are not being given more free money. (5) You will get to enjoy watching footage of animals that are either starving to death or which are already dead from starvation without the RSPCA raising so much as a peep. (6) You will get to enjoy the Dry Small Government Neo-Liberal hypocrites stay absolutely schtumm about this complete travesty of market ideology.

  22. As much as I still despise that horrible bastard Howard, he led the government and he led his party. Trumble does neither of those things, in fact I can’t tell you precisely what it is he’s actually doing. Aside from making mistakes of course- he does that a lot. And usually gloating/crowing/skiting as a prelude to making the mistakes. Then blaming Labor for it.

    Apart from that I’m at a loss.

  23. lizzie @ #741 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 12:36 pm

    calumniousfox
    For interest, I think the names are worth putting on record.

    I’ve had intel that a
    Delegation saw Turnbull last night and asked him to quit.

    Ten people:
    Scomo, Pyne, Ferrara-Wells, Tehan, Porter, Taylor, Fletcher, Coleman, Sukkar, and Karen Andrews.

    Comment son Twitter say no Dutton.
    Look at the 2 BIG NAMES.
    Pyne and ScoMo (and Porter)

    I do not claim expertise in this area but if it is those 10 then it is cross factional

    Scomo
    Pyne, Fletcher – wet
    Tehan, Andrews, Taylor, Coleman, Ferrara -wells- Catholic right – probably not monkey pod
    Sukkar, Porter far right – ???Monkey pod

    Does anyone have a better handle on the Lib factions?

    It would seem the Abbott crowd are missing, so to the Dutton mob. Not any of Turnbulls actual friends either. Seems like a middle ground movement

    But it may be fake news.

  24. ID
    Completely agree. The surgeon told me she had spoken to some of the anaesthetists she works with who Dr Harris rang for advice (he’s from SA so rang the gasmen from the Kids here).
    She’s gonna get a right boot in the arse when I next see her. 😉

  25. A cabal of Nationals and Liberals seriously went out of their way to destroy Ley after the last Federal election. After a bit of judicious leaking against her, and a semi-public campaign that was meant to convince the faithful that it was Ley and not Turnbull who nearly cost them government, they got her out of Health. Only another meritless Liberal woman, so not much of a loss, really.
    IMO, the fundamental problem for the Coalition is that that they hate public health with a vengeance and they cannot for the life of them pretend that gut hatred away.
    Hunt was supposed to fix Ley’s shortcomings.
    The timing and extent of the eHealth debacle was a good’un, eh. Despite small dollops of lolly to look-at-moi Endometriosis support and the like, Health was once again a loser for the Coalition on Super Saturday. Hunt, apart from ballsing up eHealth, was practically invisible.
    Turnbull was left sputtering something about how Caboolture Hospital patients had never had it so good and something about Labor lies.

  26. There is absolutely no way that the Liberals will get rid of Turnbull before the next election.

    The reason is straightforward: it would turn an off-chance to retain government into the Mother of All Electoral Disasters.

  27. BW

    There is absolutely no way that the Liberals will get rid of Turnbull before the next election.

    _____________________________________

    You would need real self-destructive madness to do that. Fortunately, this generation of Liberal politicians have the seed of that. However, it is extremely unlikely. Just like it would be complete madness for Labor to revisit the RGR wars in the public mind by dumping Shorten before the election. But some idiots persist in that fantasy and none of the boosters in the media are prepared to comment on how unlikely it is because of the incredible transaction costs.

  28. The potential comparison between Ryan and Super Saturday is if Turnbull works out that ‘born to rule’ = ‘born to get his arse kicked in the next Federal election’.

    Stand by for some very serious pillaging of the public purse over the next 12 months:

    Catholics, education, tick.
    Pensioners, NEG coal burning offset cash handout, tick.
    Farmers, drought subsidy, tick.
    Small business bigger tax break, tick.
    Medium business bigger tax break, tick.
    Racists, cut in official migration intake by 20%, tick.

  29. TPOF
    The person most likely, Dutton, has leadership polling of around 5%. Bishop is having the Mother-of-all-pomp and ceremonies ball. And that was that.

  30. DTT@2:45pm
    I think it fake news. Dutton faction or Abbott faction may be spreading the rumour. Because none of the leadership contenders are in it.

  31. You’d think that if a PM “requested” an election from a GG while at the same time the PM was about to be deposed by their own party, the GG would require the applicant to show they had the confidence of the House before granting the election.

  32. Those who appreciate opportunities for schadenfreude might like to note that the fire that rampaged through Bel Air, destroying multi-million dollar mansions, was started in a homeless camp.

  33. DTT@2:49pm
    IMO it was a very senior Minister who consistently leaked to senior journalist at SMH. The reason I think it is so is because in those articles some exact dialogues were reproduced.
    So it could also be same person who is spreading the above rumour.

  34. b

    The PM will not be going to the GG any time soon. There is no alternative. He is already vastly more popular than the LOTO. There would be a massive transaction cost.

    A straw in the wind is that Mr Turnbull has already dug in his heels on the Big End of Town Bank tax giveaway.

  35. It’s just occurred to me why I feel the result in Longman is so significant for Labor. It isn’t just the huge drop in primary votes for the Coalition. It’s the fact that Labor’s victory in Longman in the last election was atypical compared to seats around it in Queensland.

    There was a 7.7% TPP swing to Labor in that seat, compared with an overall swing in Qld of 2.88%. So this by-election swing has to be added on to the extreme swing at the last election. You can look at a lot of seat-specific reasons for this by-election result, but the fact is that the Coalition really thought that with No Notion changing its preference recommendations there would be a net swing to the Government that redressed the extreme swing against it the last time.

    Labor is looking very good in Queensland on this result, where it could win without a seat outside the state changing hands. The Coalition have every reason to be terrified, regardless of the nonsensical spin they are generating.

  36. Sam Crosby
    ‏Verified account @SamPCrosby
    4h4 hours ago

    2009: I will not lead a party that is not as committed to effective action on climate change as I am
    2017: We have as a Govt decided not to have a royal commission, we made the decision a long time ago
    2018:

  37. Ven @ #838 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 3:12 pm

    DTT@2:49pm
    IMO it was a very senior Minister who consistently leaked to senior journalist at SMH. The reason I think it is so is because in those articles some exact dialogues were reproduced.
    So it could also be same person who is spreading the above rumour.

    Ven

    The lost of names has the ring of truth.

    What if indeed they are a counter rebellion.

    Say Dutton is planning his move WITH support of the Monkeys. So Dutton, Hunnt and the Monkeys are lined up.

    This mob (who seem all to be middle of the road types – neither the extreme wets or the Monkeys, may have gone to Turnbull in hopes of mounting a counter coup. Scomo, Pyne and Porter the leaders.

    Noticeably absent were known Turnbull guys eg Birmingham.

  38. TPOF
    The Greens are no good for Labor and the PHON is no good for the Coalition. The open question in each case is how bad the Greens are for Labor and how bad PHON is for the Coalition.
    One of the few differences between the Greens and PHON is that the latter are more volatile.
    Accordingly, the seat-by-seat outcomes may be more difficult to predict.

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