Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll caps a weekend of status quo by-election results with a status quo poll result.

I’d have thought Newspoll might have had the week off, but The Australian reports that the latest instalment has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 7%. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 48%, Bill Shoten is steady on 32% and up one to 57%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 48-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1704.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. Greensborough Growler @ #748 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 9:38 am

    lizzie @ #743 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 12:36 pm

    calumniousfox
    For interest, I think the names are worth putting on record.

    I’ve had intel that a
    Delegation saw Turnbull last night and asked him to quit.

    Ten people:
    Scomo, Pyne, Ferrara-Wells, Tehan, Porter, Taylor, Fletcher, Coleman, Sukkar, and Karen Andrews.

    Comment son Twitter say no Dutton.
    Look at the 2 BIG NAMES.
    Pyne and ScoMo (and Porter)

    No JBishop either. Maybe she was buying a new dress.

    The Glorious One would want to keep her shoes clean so she can keep her Deputy job. 🙂

  2. TPOF,

    The leak is a big part of the story, coming as it did just before the by-elections. Your comments on the other matters are dead right, but they don’t make the Husar stuff a non-story.

  3. And I’m in full agreement with everyone else here who thinks the big story that every CPG news hound should be chasing is the Turnbull half-billion dollar gift to a foundation that nobody ever heard of.

    Why this is not being followed up and questions are not being asked is gob-smacking.

  4. GG, I agree it’s almost certainly complete nonsense. The only reason I bothered to respond to it (here in the proper thread) is the attachment of a firm, very short timetable to prove itself correct. I won’t be holding my breath, although tbf the MSM bar the ABC did miss the original Rudd spill.

  5. Interesting about Libs if true … it is almost a replay of ALP in 2013 … and will likely see a similar result.

    Mal will probably just resign from parliament and go back into the welcoming arms of his banking buddies.

    Another byelection … or will they just go to a general in the hope that the new face will have a similar reaction to when Turnbull took over.

    If so, that might be a little misguided as nobody else has the personal profile that engenders the ‘hope’ that Mal’s ascension did

  6. Surely Labor will go hard on that GBR story when parliament resumes. At first glance it stinks. Fmd $400 million without even tendering?

  7. Shorten has said the findings of the Husar investigation might not be made public. I agree with him on this as I don’t think we are entitled to see them as long as the findings are considered by the party. Unfortunately it’s highly likely they will be leaked whether they are good or bad for her.

  8. Barney in Go Dau @ #295 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 12:40 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #748 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 9:38 am

    lizzie @ #743 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 12:36 pm

    calumniousfox
    For interest, I think the names are worth putting on record.

    I’ve had intel that a
    Delegation saw Turnbull last night and asked him to quit.

    Ten people:
    Scomo, Pyne, Ferrara-Wells, Tehan, Porter, Taylor, Fletcher, Coleman, Sukkar, and Karen Andrews.

    Comment son Twitter say no Dutton.
    Look at the 2 BIG NAMES.
    Pyne and ScoMo (and Porter)

    No JBishop either. Maybe she was buying a new dress.

    The Glorious One would want to keep her shoes clean so she can keep her Deputy job. 🙂

    It IS possible to critique a politician without being misogynistic you know.

  9. Ben Eltham
    ‏Verified account @beneltham
    43s43 seconds ago

    Ben Eltham Retweeted David Brophy

    The Israeli Defence Force has detained @newmatilda editor Chris Graham. You can contact Julie Bishop to ask her to intercede

  10. calumniousfox @ #754 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 12:45 pm

    GG, I agree it’s almost certainly complete nonsense. The only reason I bothered to respond to it (here in the proper thread) is the attachment of a firm, very short timetable to prove itself correct. I won’t be holding my breathe, although tbf the MSM bar the ABC did miss the original Rudd spill.

    two things:

    1. I reckon that source you quoted also had something similar about a top level meeting of Libs on Sunday night that Turnbull refused to attend in Sydney. Only, JB was on that list and my understanding is she was in Indonesia.
    2. Turnbull would be off to the GG as quick as if such a delegation confronted him. I reckon he’s rather take the whole show down than be deposed as Leader.

  11. Two journalists bloviating about Aussies being inspired by sporting heroes and not pollies might do well to contemplate the blanket media adulation given to, say, a multiple Olympic gold medallist for at least a month as opposed their incessant derision of at least one side of politics or, evenhanded contempt for all pollies.

    It’s almost a decade since Eddie Obied was caught perpetrating serious crimes, and he’s still a Murdochian front page whipping boy presented as typifying all Labor politicians. Betty Cuthbert and Kathy Freeman will forever be media superheroes, typifying our Olympic athletes. No politician has come within cooee of sports superstar media treatment.

  12. Rex Douglas @ #762 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 9:49 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #295 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 12:40 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #748 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 9:38 am

    lizzie @ #743 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 12:36 pm

    ….

    No JBishop either. Maybe she was buying a new dress.

    The Glorious One would want to keep her shoes clean so she can keep her Deputy job. 🙂

    It IS possible to critique a politician without being misogynistic you know.

    ??????

    Where is the misogyny?

  13. David Marler
    ‏ @Qldaah
    18m18 minutes ago

    Roman Quaedvlieg calls for refugee deaths in custody inquiry. #qldpol #auspol

    David Marler
    ‏ @Qldaah
    50s50 seconds ago

    The inference here is that Mr Quaedvlieg has something to tell us and he wants the proper judicial format in which to tell it. #qldpol #auspol

  14. Burgey

    I never said that it was a non-story. Indeed, quite the opposite. There are clearly serious allegations against her management of her workplace – serious enough for a full and proper investigation. Which is why piecemeal assessment of the headlines of the behaviour alleged should not be the subject of ignorant judgement – whether to dismiss or to condemn.

  15. Zoidlord @ #764 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 12:55 pm

    David Marler
    ‏ @Qldaah
    18m18 minutes ago

    Roman Quaedvlieg calls for refugee deaths in custody inquiry. #qldpol #auspol

    David Marler
    ‏ @Qldaah
    50s50 seconds ago

    The inference here is that Mr Quaedvlieg has something to tell us and he wants the proper judicial format in which to tell it. #qldpol #auspol

    There’s a whiff of atonement in the air.

  16. Zoidlord @ #308 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 12:55 pm

    David Marler
    ‏ @Qldaah
    18m18 minutes ago

    Roman Quaedvlieg calls for refugee deaths in custody inquiry. #qldpol #auspol

    David Marler
    ‏ @Qldaah
    50s50 seconds ago

    The inference here is that Mr Quaedvlieg has something to tell us and he wants the proper judicial format in which to tell it. #qldpol #auspol

    Lib-Lab don’t want any spotlight on their policy of torture and death.

  17. An embittered sacked head of the AFP isn’t a great witness. Especially when he was an enthusiastic supporter of the border policies when he was in a position to do something about it.

  18. Lib-Lab don’t want any spotlight on their policy of torture and death.
    __________________________________

    I don’t usually comment on Rex’s stuff, but when the Coroner’s finding into the death of Hamid Khazaei was released I started thinking about the Malaysian People swap that his party, colluding with Tony Abbott and the Scummo, torpedoed.

    And I thought that for all the faux concerns expressed by these destroyers about the fate of refugees sent to Malaysia under very tightly agreed protocols, Mr Khazaei would have had incomparably better medical treatment and be alive today if he had been sent there instead of Manus. But Rex can go on with his impossibly perfect morals and, like Stalin’s perfect society, deaths are just a minor statistic on the way to the golden age.

  19. An embittered sacked head of the AFP isn’t a great witness. Especially when he was an enthusiastic supporter of the border policies when he was in a position to do something about it.
    ________________________________

    You could say the same about Michael Cohen. The fact is that we are always going to discard the evidence of the agents of violence, we will only serve the interests of those who are actually behind it. Certainly, we are entitled not to take their claims at face value, but the opportunity to be pointed to where the definitive evidence is should never be missed if justice is what we really are after.

  20. Dio, as you’re around, it came out a bit snarky (should have done the winkey thing), but really, speaking generally, pharmacology isn’t exactly a surgical strong point.

  21. TPOF @ #753 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 12:44 pm

    And I’m in full agreement with everyone else here who thinks the big story that every CPG news hound should be chasing is the Turnbull half-billion dollar gift to a foundation that nobody ever heard of.

    Why this is not being followed up and questions are not being asked is gob-smacking.

    This tells you all you need to know about our compromised MSM.

    If BuzzFeed is so independent, why are they not following it up?

  22. I notice that Rex seems to have recovered from the shock of Shorten winning the four by-elections last Saturday, with everyone declaring that his leadership is now safe and that Turnbull is the one now under pressure. Has there been any sign of Wayne since last Saturday?

  23. Darn,

    To his credit, Wayne popped in and posted wtte of “Our glorious ALP will win the next election, be in government for 20 years and Bill Shorten will be the best PM ever.”

  24. calumniousfox @ #740 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 12:30 pm

    Someone going by the name of Robert Ball in the by-election thread wrote a comment stating Turnbull had been asked to resign by a delegation of 10 ministers last night. Supposedly it’s now on and a press conference could be held as early as 3pm today.

    Seems to me like wishful thinking (FAKE NEWS!) that this could escalate so quickly from the public push from Queensland LNP MPs to drop company tax cuts. Maybe if we all close our eyes and wish really hard…

    No need for such efforts. Easier to just wait until 3:00 pm and see if anything happens.

  25. i would much rather Turnbull did a presser at 3 pm to explain the GBR grant of 443 million dollars given to his friends without tender

  26. It seems highly improbable that a delegation of 10 asking the PM to resign would happen without a leak, deliberate of accidental, to some media outlet. It would have been all over 2GB this morning.

    I’m putting this down to false news.

  27. In addition if Dutton was elected to lead the Libs then we will be looking at a 2012 QLD election result but with Labor winning. He would be a disaster.

  28. i want Turnbull to tell us if giving 443 million to this group without any strings attached is a reasonable thing to do. Seriously, where is he today?

  29. And I’m in full agreement with everyone else here who thinks the big story that every CPG news hound should be chasing is the Turnbull half-billion dollar gift to a foundation that nobody ever heard of.

    Nah, our fearless Adelaide ABC morning radio hard talker wanted to talk to someone from the Tele about Getup. And that was after giving the new Transport Infrastructure and Urban Development minister the most cushy ‘interview’ I have heard in ages.

    It is all about balance. The media are there to balance out everyone elses understanding that the Coalition smell like stale farts.

  30. Burgey
    “To his credit, Wayne popped in and posted wtte of “Our glorious ALP will win the next election, be in government for 20 years and Bill Shorten will be the best PM ever.””

    Wayne also said the ALP would win Mayo at the federal election, which I thought was a bit OTT.

  31. – what is being leaked may not be true – a lot of investigation should be done, rather than simply report the leak itself. If the content cannot be verified, then the leak should be the news, not the content.

    This.

    I make no comment on the Husar stuff. That seems to be in hand and being dealt with reasonably. If details of allegations etc have found their way to the media then of course any reasonable media outlet should report what they have. If that is part of a wider internal Kill Bill effort can only be speculated upon without evidence that it is coming from people who are also leaking against the leader.

    But the #albogaveaspeech crap is where the media has failed hideously. And central to that hideous failure is the misuse of ‘off the record’. Off the record is important for journalists to get information from within say a department that exposes serious wrong doing. Protecting a source in that situation is an obvious benefit to society in that is assists whistle blowers to expose corruption or other misdeeds.

    But off the record for pure political theatre is a corruption of real journalism. As we saw with Rudd’s efforts to destroy Gillard it becomes nothing more than journalists becoming facilitators for one political faction over another. It stinks to high heaven that the last few months of Kill Bill have more than a little of the same odious behaviour.

    #Albogaveaspeech that had absolutely nothing in it that should have resulted in (and is still being used as justification for) the idea that he was trailing his coat. The transcript simply doesn’t support what the media have asserted about it. Which leads to two possible conclusions. 1. the media for reasons of bias amd/or incompetence have read far more into it than was there, or 2. a bit of ‘off the record’ stuff from Albo or someone purporting to speak for him was added into the mix to help the journos interpret the speech.

    We have no idea which is which, but the hints have been coming that a bit of option 2. was in the mix. That should surprise no one. But the point is that in itself is the real story. If there was in fact an effort from Albo to destabilise Shorten and Labor the perpetrators of that are not entitled to the protection of ‘off the record’. The media should have exposed that, not allied themselves to leakers in their clandestine efforts to overthrow the leader.

    It really shouldn’t need to be explained to them how behaving in such a way misleads the public but journos are dumb as dogshit, and far too self interested to get it. If you want to be a playa, join a fucking party (or take a job with one). If you want to be a journalist inform the public on what is actually happening, not conceal the truth in order to maintain your access to the drip and feel clever cause you know stuff you won’t tell the people who need to know.

  32. Darn @ #324 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 1:28 pm

    I notice that Rex seems to have recovered from the shock of Shorten winning the four by-elections last Saturday, with everyone declaring that his leadership is now safe and that Turnbull is the one now under pressure. Has there been any sign of Wayne since last Saturday?

    I’ve said for a while now that Labor aren’t for changing the leader, even if Albo had a crack.

    I’m absolutely certain Turnbull is thrilled that Bill Shorten will remain leader.

    As for those that matter – the voters – they’re just desperate for someone to emerge that will inspire them. Politics is toxic.

  33. For what it’s worth (yawn!) Clive is setting up a political base in NQ.

    Businessman Clive Palmer has begun a concerted effort to build support for his United Australia Party in north Queensland, buying a luxury apartment in Townsville and appointing a full-time party administrator.

    Former One Nation and Palmer United Party candidate Jen Sackley will run the UAP’s operations in Townsville and Cairns, Mr Palmer announced on Tuesday.

    Ms Sackley, a social worker, is a long-time north Queensland resident with a “very strong commitment to giving struggling families a voice”, Mr Palmer said.

    The colourful mining magnate is considering a run for the federal seat of Herbert at the election due by May next year, seeking to topple Labor’s Cathy O’Toole.

    https://au.news.yahoo.com/palmer-builds-political-north-qld-025225394–spt.html

  34. I must have lost my way and gone through the looking glass I think. Wayne is now a Labor supporter? How bizarre.

    As someone here suggested a while back, perhaps Wayne really was Showson just taking the piss.

  35. It’s quite clear to me that Husar’s alleged victims have let it be known publicly that the investigation is going too slowly, for whatever reason, in their view.

    Whatever the case, the publicity the case has received has now ensured a thorough investigation will take place.

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