Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll caps a weekend of status quo by-election results with a status quo poll result.

I’d have thought Newspoll might have had the week off, but The Australian reports that the latest instalment has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 7%. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 48%, Bill Shoten is steady on 32% and up one to 57%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 48-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1704.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. Barney in Go Dau @ #700 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 10:58 am

    So the journos are completely to blame, while those within the Party pushing for Albo are blameless? 🙂

    Yes. Concentrating 100% on the ALP – which actually has very little division – while completely ignoring the massive internal ructions, upheavals and divisions within the LNP makes them unthinking and partisan hacks, not journalists.

  2. There was absolutely nothing stopping either Taylor or Murphy saying, “Not only did Albo give a speech, but several significant Labor figures said…”

    If you want to justify writing leadersh*t, there is always someone making a speech…and you can always find someone in any party (or even a group of someones) who are willing to play leadership scenarios.

    I’m sure that there are Liberals other than Tony Abbott making speeches and talking about replacing Malcolm. Strangely, we don’t hear much about them (or didn’t, before this week)

  3. So the journos are completely to blame, while those within the Party pushing for Albo are blameless?

    I never said that. In fact, quite the opposite. Blame was equally shared. For you to suggest otherwise is disingenuous.

  4. Looks like Mal is in safe position to lead LNP to next electoral defeat

    Tony Abbott – who maintains a high public profile and is a frequent critic of government policy – was down one point on 10%.

    Two other conservatives who have expressed their ambitions publicly, Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton, were well back on 2% and 5% respectively.

  5. …and Newspoll being out of whack (and my Labor sources!! are make more and more noises about the unreliability of all polling, given the switch from landlines) would answer the question of ‘why aren’t Labor polling better, given the government’.

  6. …basically, the switch to mobiles means that the only people who can be polled are over 50 — the group which traditionally vote Coalition. Even if you do find 18 year olds in these homes to meet your demographic requirements, the likelihood is that they are not typical of their age group.

  7. Not a happy crew on the good ship Liberal. Perhaps Malcolm Bligh Turnbull gets to channel the mutiny of his ancestor?

    Liberal backbencher @TonyPasin says Education Minister @birmo’s relationship with the Catholic school sector has “become toxic” and “been allowed to fester”, and he welcomes an intervention from @TurnbullMalcolm. theaustralian.com.au/national-affai… #auspol

  8. I will quickly do a bit of a mea culpa — the comments made to me were around single seat polling. I’m probably wrong to try and extrapolate them out to national polls.

  9. C@tmomma,
    Too sadly true. In nearly a half century involved with Labor Party factional “engagements”, don’t recall a single day when a journo could not have contacted a few pollies to bellyache about some disliked policy or some perceived disrespect from the leadership team. Thus, Journos can become Leadershit “urgers” at any point it suits them for any purpose whatsoever.

    This is bound to be even more likely when there’s serious ideological “engagements” between two parties in Coalition. It is also why the trajectory of minor parties in Oz has, so far, been that their bellyaching ignites their splintering which hastens their complete demise (even Don Chipp’s once-proud Keep the Bastards Honest Party self-destructed).

  10. I’m off to have a stern chat with the surgeon at the Children’s hospital who told me it was intranasal ketamine despite my scepticism.

  11. I’m part way through listening to the latest “Is It On” podcast by Buzzfeed. They have Sam Dastyari on, and he basically called leadership speculation bullshit. He said in a HoR of 150 members you will always find someone unhappy and grumbling. The media have been going on about problems for Shorten, and now they will switch to speculation on Turnbull for the next few weeks, and he said that will be bullshit as well.

  12. Lizzie @ 11.29

    Bill Shorten sounding firm and decisive – the victories over the weekend have given his confidence a boost, I think.
    _______________________________________

    I thought he sounded excellent. No ums and ahs. And very clear consistent messaging. I also thought it a very smart move to still be in Braddon two days after the by-election. A small, but pointed visual message that he was not a fly-in/fly-out pollie keen to get home now the job’s over.

  13. I don’t understand why it’s so hard for people to accept there were some in the ALP who were leaking against Shorten last week. The amount of crap Alice Workman copped from the tunnel visioned ALP supporters on social media was ridiculous. She was being leaked the daily talking points on Husar ffs. Why is it so hard to accept it had to be coming from within the Party? Anyone who says otherwise is suffering from a closed head injury.

    It’s also no coincidence it’s stopped after the by-elections and Shorten had such a good result. It’s put it to bed. There were these imbeciles, and that’s what they are – imbeciles, saying Workman was making it all up in an effort to bring Labor down. Then yesterday we saw the same imbeciles congratulating her on the great job she did with the Cash story.

    Honestly, the Husar stuff is a legitimate story. The leaking of the talking points is a legit story. People need to wake up to themselves.

  14. Burgey @ #715 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 11:41 am

    I don’t understand why it’s so hard for people to accept there were some int eh ALP who were leaking against Shorten last week. The amount of crap Alice Workman copped from the tunnel visioned ALP supporters on social media was ridiculous. She was being leaked the daily talking points on Husar ffs. Why is it so hard to accept it had to be coming from within the Party? Anyone who says otherwise is suffering from a closed head injury.

    It’s also no coincidence it’s stopped after the by-elections and Shorten had such a good result. It’s put it to bed. There were these imbeciles, and that’s what they are – imbeciles, saying Workman was making it all up in an effort to bring Labor down. Then yesterday we saw the same imbeciles congratulating her on the great job she did with the Cash story.

    Honestly, the Husar stuff is a legitimate story. The leaking of the talking points is a legit story. People need to wake up to themselves.

    The Husar story is :

    1. Man does dishes and doesn’t like it.
    2. Man walks dog and has to follow law.
    3. Politician uses Commcar to go to political event.

    That’s not a legit story.

  15. poroti – thanks for the link……………………Did not know this guy existed ……………….his “how to vote” Liberal says it all I suppose.

  16. Thank you GG for circumventing the costly and time consuming inquiry the ALP has itself seen fit to undertake into the matter. Can you just forward your post as an email to Sussex Street now you’ve sorted it all out? Cheers.

    As if the state branch of the ALP would invest that much time and money into something not worthy of investigating. Whether she’s done anything untoward, I wouldn’t know. Just as you wouldn’t. But it’s a story. A legitimate story for a journo to publish, as were the leaks to her of the talking points. The woman has had more staff through her office in two years than some Ministers have in five. Her own Party has seen fit to investigate it. But no, not a story for a journo to report on.

    Pull the other one mate.

  17. Its interesting to look back on those last two newspolls for Longman and Braddon. From pollbludger:

    first Longman…
    “Labor is credited with a solid improvement on the primary vote compared with the 2016 election result, from 35.4% to 40%, while the Liberal National Party is down from 39.0% to 36%. This gives Labor the buffer it needs to deal with One Nation, up from 9.4% to 14%, and their stronger flow of what I presume are respondent-allocated preferences to the LNP”

    So firstly, it was pretty much spot on with Labor primaries, and not far off with ON primaries – 14% compared to just under 16% in the election. However LNP primaries was badly off – 36% compared to just under 30% in the election.

    and Braddon..
    “In Braddon, the primary votes are Labor 40% (unchanged on 2016), Liberal 43% (up from 41.5%), the Greens 5% (down from 6.7%) and independent Craig Garland 8%.”

    – compared to the election – Labor 37% Liberal 39% Greens 4% and Garland 10.6%

    One thing I’m interested in finding out is how ON preferences split in Longman.

  18. Burgey @ #718 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 11:52 am

    Thank you GG for circumventing the costly and time consuming inquiry the ALP has itself seen fit to undertake into the matter. Can you just forward your post as an email to Sussex Street now you’ve sorted it all out? Cheers.

    As if the state branch of the ALP would invest that much time and money into something not worthy of investigating. Whether she’s done anything untoward, I wouldn’t know. Just as you wouldn’t. But it’s a story. A legitimate story for a journo to publish, as were the leaks to her of the talking points. The woman has had more staff through her office in two years than some Ministers have in five. Her own Party has seen fit to investigate it. But no, not a story for a journo to report on.

    Pull the other one mate.

    You can concern troll as much as you like.

    But, politician having staff turnover is not a story either.

  19. Big A Adrian @ #719 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 11:54 am

    Its interesting to look back on those last two newspolls for Longman and Braddon. From pollbludger:

    first Longman…
    “Labor is credited with a solid improvement on the primary vote compared with the 2016 election result, from 35.4% to 40%, while the Liberal National Party is down from 39.0% to 36%. This gives Labor the buffer it needs to deal with One Nation, up from 9.4% to 14%, and their stronger flow of what I presume are respondent-allocated preferences to the LNP”

    So firstly, it was pretty much spot on with Labor primaries, and not far off with ON primaries – 14% compared to just under 16% in the election. However LNP primaries was badly off – 36% compared to just under 30% in the election.

    and Braddon..
    “In Braddon, the primary votes are Labor 40% (unchanged on 2016), Liberal 43% (up from 41.5%), the Greens 5% (down from 6.7%) and independent Craig Garland 8%.”

    – compared to the election – Labor 37% Liberal 39% Greens 4% and Garland 10.6%

    One thing I’m interested in finding out is how ON preferences split in Longman.

    Last I saw was about 35/65.

  20. I am sure that there are a few malcontents in the Labor party, including in caucus. There would also be a few in caucus with PM’s batons in their knapsacks, including Albo. There may have been leadership discussions in relation to to the possibility of adverse outcome in the by-elections. But Bill Shorten always seemed very secure. All the “leadershit” with regard to the ALP seemed to be out of all proportion to any actual probability of a leadership challenge or change.

    Contrast this with the other side of the aisle, where the Right and the Far Right of the “Liberal” party to to be engaged in a constant, low-level warfare, especially over energy policy but also other issues, where the PM is held in serious disdain, apparently being regarded as too left wing (can’t imagine why) by much of the party base, including sections of the party room and many right wing media figures. Where at least 3 members are taking their leadership batons out of their knapsacks and measuring them up.

    It’s not an issue that the media talks about Labor leadership, but there does seem to be a significant difference between how that is reported in Labor as against the Government parties. It seems very much like anti-Labor, anti-Shorten bias.

  21. Lol, concern troll. FMD I’ve been posting on this site since 2007, on and off. It’s taken 11 years but I’ve finally received a label. Yay me.

    Thank Dog the ALP isn’t run by people as consumed by the bubble of their own views as you are in this instance, GG.

    It’s obviously an issue of some substance, the ALP itself is investigating it. I mean, we’re through the looking glass with GG here folks. Loves the ALP so much that apparently there’s no story worthy of a journo publishing, even though the Party itself thinks it’s worth investigation by an external lawyer.

    Give. Me. A. Break.

  22. Steve777 @ #720 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 12:00 pm

    I am sure that there are a few malcontents in the Labor party, including in caucus. There would also be a few in caucus with PM’s batons in their knapsacks, including Albo. There may have been leadership discussions in relation to to the possibility of adverse outcome in the by-elections. But Bill Shorten always seemed very secure. All the “leadershit” with regard to the ALP seemed to be out of all proportion to any actual probability of a leadership challenge or change.

    Contrast this with the other side of the aisle, where the Right and the Far Right of the “Liberal” party to to be engaged in a constant, low-level warfare, especially over energy policy but also other issues, where the PM is held in serious disdain, apparently being regarded as too left wing (can’t imagine why) by much of the party base, including sections of the party room and many right wing media figures. Where at least 3 members are taking their leadership batons out of their knapsacks and measuring them up.

    It’s not an issue that the media talks about Labor leadership, but there does seem to be a significant difference between how that is reported in Labor as against the Government parties. It seems very much like anti-Labor, anti-Shorten bias.

    Absolutely Steve

    Given the polling and the Kill Bill strategy of the MSN there was a reasonable possibility (a month ago) that Labor could lose Longman and Braddon. If there was a significant downturn in the ALP vote then of course the troops would be restless.

    If Albo and probably others were positioning themselves in case that occurred then why not? Did anyone do anything to undermine the campaign in any way at all. ANY way. NO!!! So what is the big deal?

    Of course a competent MSN would have got wind a while ago that the voters were shifting towards the ALP especially in Longman and perhaps dialled it down, but they persisted like a pack of morons.

  23. Burgey

    GG is a factional warrior. He will always defend his own and strongly.

    If you are only called a concern troll you are doing WELL!

  24. Burgey @ #724 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 12:05 pm

    Lol, concern troll. FMD I’ve been posting on this site since 2007, on and off. It’s taken 11 years but I’ve finally received a label. Yay me.

    Thank Dog the ALP isn’t run by people as consumed by the bubble of their own views as you are in this instance, GG.

    It’s obviously an issue of some substance, the ALP itself is investigating it. I mean, we’re through the looking glass with GG here folks. Loves the ALP so much that apparently there’s no story worthy of a journo publishing, even though the Party itself thinks it’s worth investigation by an external lawyer.

    Give. Me. A. Break.

    You’re just the type of person I need to walk my dog! Need some exercise?

  25. I’ve followed and often enjoyed GG’s posts (and those of almost everyone) on here for years. But the idea that Alice Workman of all people is involved in some MSM conspiracy to Get Shorten after the way she’s been almost singlehandedly responsible for getting the office of a senior Minister (and possibly that Minister herself) referred to the DPP is flat out laughable.

  26. I don’t for a moment discount that leaking was done internally.

    I DO think, though, it was given more significance than it might have deserved by media.

    Backbencher who might see themselves in a ministry when in govt if there’s a different leadership team might see this as a way of promoting their own interests, and doing it when their leader is believed to be most ‘vulnerable’ makes sense if you’re monoeuvring to lift your stocks, but that same timing has the most potential to bring the entire party undone.

    It is a good thing that Shorten’s position has been consolidated because those who might have stuck their heads over the parapet will pull them back in now.

    What makes the media’s role in this contradictory is that they claim to have their fingers on the pulse so they SHOULD know that these backbencher rumblings are unlikely to be meaningful.

  27. GG,

    I get my dogs walked every day while I’m at work, thanks. But with your head so far up your own fundamental orifice on this issue, I can understand why you can’t see your way around the neighbourhood and need someone to lend a hand.

  28. ABC News (online and television) first bulletin late Saturday night after Labor’s byelections wins stated: “……. Braddon and Longman were expected to be close, and some had suggested Mr Shorten’s leadership would be questioned if either seat was lost”.

    Nothing in ABC’s belection bulletin discloses who these obviously important “some” people are. In any other group I’ve experienced (parents and teachers association, workplace committees, Body Corporates, RSL chapter, sporting leagues, Labor party branches etc.) claiming that “some” thought or felt something would not be remotely acceptable for making decisions on any matter. This ABC report exemplifies the egregious Orwellian parlance which constitutes lazy speculation masquerading as objective journalism. Poor fellow, our ABC.

  29. Burgey @ #275 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 12:13 pm

    I’ve followed and often enjoyed GG’s posts (and those of almost everyone) on here for years. But the idea that Alice Workman of all people is involved in some MSM conspiracy to Get Shorten after the way she’s been almost singlehandedly responsible for getting the office of a senior Minister (and possibly that Minister herself) referred to the DPP is flat out laughable.

    Workman goes hard without fear or favour. She’s an excellent political investigative journo.

  30. Jen,

    That I can agree with. But it’s no coincidence the leaking came from within at a time when it helped pile onto the Shorten being a goner message, stupid as it was.

  31. Burgey @ #732 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 12:15 pm

    GG,

    I get my dogs walked every day while I’m at work, thanks. But with your head so far up your own fundamental orifice on this issue, I can understand why you can’t see your way around the neighbourhood and need someone to lend a hand.

    You should get them to bark for you as well. It would make more sense.

  32. Was listening to an interview with George Mega and Gerard Whately this morning re the way Australians look differently at sport – in particular their AFL teams – and politics.
    Australians love their teams and sporting heroes because they find inspiration in them, but the general sentiment towards politics from non-partisans is one of despair as they don’t find any inspiration in their politicians.

    Politics is terribly toxic in Australia at the moment. The people are desperate to find some inspiration.

  33. GG probably thinks Eddie Obeid was just misunderstood too.

    If you can’t recognise when your own side of politics has an issue (and I’d say it’s not a huge issue in the scheme of things, Husar is a backbencher, although she’s in a marginal which makes it awkward) then tbh you’re of no value to the Party you purport to represent. You become the mirror image of the Tories walking around saying there’s no problems for them despite two years of crap polling and a disastrous suite of by-elections.

  34. GG

    Burgey is making fair enough statements. The journo reported a story that some within ALP leaked. Whether it turns out to be much ado about nothing is another story in itself.

    I would like to see more scrutiny by our CPG re the money Turnbull unilaterally handed over the GBR

  35. Someone going by the name of Robert Ball in the by-election thread wrote a comment stating Turnbull had been asked to resign by a delegation of 10 ministers last night. Supposedly it’s now on and a press conference could be held as early as 3pm today. No source was given but a search finds: https://mobile.twitter.com/Nartster/status/1023944280606298112

    Seems to me like wishful thinking (FAKE NEWS!) that this could escalate so quickly from the public push from Queensland LNP MPs to drop company tax cuts. Maybe if we all close our eyes and wish really hard…

  36. Turnbull is just about all they have going for them, which says a lot in itself. If they switch and go hard Right they turn a 15 seat loss into a 25 plus seat loss. God I hope they do it.

  37. calumniousfox @ #740 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 12:30 pm

    Someone going by the name of Robert Ball posting in the by-election thread wrote a comment stating Turnbull had been asked to resign by a delegation of 10 ministers last night. Supposedly it’s now on and a press conference could be held as early as 3pm today. No source was given but a search finds: https://mobile.twitter.com/Nartster/status/1023944280606298112

    Seems to me like wishful thinking (FAKE NEWS!) that this could escalate so quickly from the public push from Queensland LNP MPs to drop company tax cuts. Maybe if we all close our eyes and wish really hard…

    If there’s not a whiff in the MSM then it is probably untrue. Or else, it could be the biggest MSM failure since KillBill in the lead up to Super Saturday.

  38. calumniousfox
    For interest, I think the names are worth putting on record.

    I’ve had intel that a
    Delegation saw Turnbull last night and asked him to quit.

    Ten people:
    Scomo, Pyne, Ferrara-Wells, Tehan, Porter, Taylor, Fletcher, Coleman, Sukkar, and Karen Andrews.

    Comment son Twitter say no Dutton.
    Look at the 2 BIG NAMES.
    Pyne and ScoMo (and Porter)

  39. “Turnbull is just about all they have going for them, which says a lot in itself. If they switch and go hard Right they turn a 15 seat loss into a 25 plus seat loss. God I hope they do it.”

    Not to mention stop getting anything through the Senate.

  40. Victoria @ #739 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 12:28 pm

    GG

    Burgey is making fair enough statements. The journo reported a story that some within ALP leaked. Whether it turns out to be much ado about nothing is another story in itself.

    I would like to see more scrutiny by our CPG re the money Turnbull unilaterally handed over the GBR

    Burgey has a perfect right to be wrong. It’s just he’s become a little fractious since his mansplaining insight has not been taken as gospel.

  41. lizzie @ #743 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 12:36 pm

    calumniousfox
    For interest, I think the names are worth putting on record.

    I’ve had intel that a
    Delegation saw Turnbull last night and asked him to quit.

    Ten people:
    Scomo, Pyne, Ferrara-Wells, Tehan, Porter, Taylor, Fletcher, Coleman, Sukkar, and Karen Andrews.

    Comment son Twitter say no Dutton.
    Look at the 2 BIG NAMES.
    Pyne and ScoMo (and Porter)

    No JBishop either. Maybe she was buying a new dress.

  42. Wow, some serious nonsense going down about leaking.

    A few obvious points:

    – yep, everyone leaks.
    – the leaks are genuine – they are evidence that someone is leaking
    – the leaking is done for a purpose

    Now here is where the media can go badly off the rails:

    – what is being leaked may not be true – a lot of investigation should be done, rather than simply report the leak itself. If the content cannot be verified, then the leak should be the news, not the content.

    – there needs to be a serious balance in treating similar stories. And CPG journalists need to address bullshit political arguments. For example, Trumble’s assertion that Bill must have known about allegations against a humble backbencher while he claimed to know nothing about an open secret regarding his deputy Prime Minister. This absurdity has been pointed out on twitter and here, but not by any mainstream CPG denizen that I have seen. Trumble is just allowed to speak nonsense unchallenged.

    – we are in no position to judge Ms Husar’s matter. We simply don’t have the facts, let alone the context. So speculation about dog walking and the circumstances in which it occurred – was it a one-off or treated improperly as a routine part of the job description, for example – means that we are doing nothing more than assisting the dirty work of the leakers by speculating on it.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *