Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll caps a weekend of status quo by-election results with a status quo poll result.

I’d have thought Newspoll might have had the week off, but The Australian reports that the latest instalment has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 7%. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 48%, Bill Shoten is steady on 32% and up one to 57%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 48-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1704.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. Greensborough Growler says: Tuesday, July 31, 2018 at 9:10 am

    Given Mueller has the Cohen tapes and their contents have been released, it’s likely that Mueller also has corroborating testimony or information already and they are testing the Trump camp for lies and discrepancies.

    ********************************************************

    As pointed out previously – it only needs one witness under oath to corroborate Cohen’s accusation that he was a witness to Trump being told about the meeting for it all to blow up. It has always been ‘rumoured’ that the FBI/IC has it all on tape. Also Manafort is up tomorrow – he was allegedly one of the other witnesses to Cohen’s accusation…….

  2. Good morning all,

    I hope Turnbull throws extra funding to the Catholic sector.

    Labor can argue they have been totally vindicated in opposing Gonski 2.0. on the grounds it was unfair, flawed and had ripped billions out of education despite what the government and media have been saying for over 12 months.

    Labor can then argue that although it is good the Catholic sector is being given extra money what about the public education sector, the largest provider of education in this country ? It still remains billions short of what labor guarenteed under the original Gonski. Shows us the money there.

    As well, will the Catholics be happy with what Turnbull offers ?

    Then there is the independent sector. If this extra funding for the Catholics is coming out of the existing pool it will be the independent sector that will lose out after supporting the government all the way through.

    It will end up as a exercise in putting bandaid after bandaid over bleeding wounds that open up all over the place.

    So much for Turnbull and co promising the end of secret special deals.

    Cheers.

  3. Kristina Keneally‏Verified account @KKeneally · 3h3 hours ago

    Put another way: Malcolm Turnbull throws Simon Birmingham under the bus, even though Birmo has been implementing Turnbull’s own Gonski 2.0 Plan for over a year.
    These cuts to Catholic schools are Turnbull’s cuts,
    should take responsibility.

  4. Victoria @ #648 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 9:13 am

    Yes. Although the contents of one tape has been released. It must likely was released by the Trump camp

    Yes, it was just one of the tapes. One that the Trump camp had waived privilege on beforehand. But I think it was Cohen who did the actual releasing of it.

    Confessions @ #650 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 9:15 am

    I very much doubt Giuliani is working with the feds.

    Probably correct.

    Although he did fairly publicly demonstrate prior knowledge of things that he very definitely should not have had prior knowledge of during the 2016 election campaign. I’d be somewhat surprised if Mueller’s investigation has overlooked that fact. And even more surprised if Mueller investigated it and decided that Giuliani was innocent of any wrongdoing.

  5. Grimace
    I feel for you re NBN.
    We are also disappointed in that we are in a small pocket of our town that did not get activated with the rest. That was in Dec 2016 and Jan 2017. Getting information about why and when we might be connected has been like getting blood from a stone, even for our federal ALP member.
    Last few days the NBN website is now showing us being connected in Sept, but with the dreaded fttn. I had heard indications that we might be getting fttc due to the difficulties that originally put us in the too hard basket

  6. What could possibly go wrong?

    Oh let me count the ways…

    But hang on. Weren’t we all assured my our great and independent media that Conski 2.0 was a triumph!

    But I digress. What WILL go wrong is that as soon as Trumble caves to the Catholics (and he HAS to cave to them to at least the sum that Shorten is promising) then the independents and states both KNOW to 100% certainty, that a) more money is there for the taking, and b) exactly what they have to do to get it.

    This is why Conski was ALWAYS destined to fail. To paraphrase Lenore ‘any idiot could see’ that by simply bodging up some new (significantly lower) number to what had already been locked in and budgeted for and then told to take it or leave it at least one of the systems would appreciate that they have more than enough political clout to make Trumble regret his foolishness. The original Gonski perhaps over funded some systems in some ways, but it had the great benefit of having had all systems involved in the design and all satisfied with the outcome.

    So good luck Trumble you dickhead. You’re gonna need it. Whatever you give to one school system you will be forced to provide to all. And if it still falls short of Labor’s offer you still won’t get them off your back. Such a shame you’re pissing so many billions against the wall on corporate tax cut poison eh? You could afford proper Gonski.

  7. Although he did fairly publicly demonstrate prior knowledge of things that he very definitely should not have had prior knowledge of during the 2016 election campaign.

    Yes this is true, and why I was surprised he joined the Trump team. I’d thought he was deliberately keeping a low profile.

  8. Australian Council for the Defence of Government Schools:

    Catholic Schools are never satisfied, the only answer to the state aid problem is to stop aid to private schools:

    http://www.adogs.info/press/catholic-schools-are-never-satisfied-only-answer-state-aid-problem-stop-state-aid-private

    The last few weeks has seen the Catholic education sector flexing its muscles , threatening any politician who refuses to give the religious lobbyists exactly what they want.

    Senator Birmingham, sits on top of an augean stables of bottom of the schoolyard schemes involving billions of dollars of public money. He, as Minister is ultimately accountable, and, to give him credit, has tried to do something. The Gonski Needs rhetoric had produced data on the social economic status of children attending Catholic and other private schools dependent upon public funding.

    Currently, a school’s Socio-Economic Status (SES) score is calculated by the income, education and occupation characteristics of the areas where students live. The School Resourcing Board, set up by the Government has been delving into the augean stables. The higher the scores determined by the Schools Resourcing Board, the less government funding the schools receive.

    This did not suit the Catholic sector since there had been ‘special deals’ going back to the Howard and Gillard years which provided their schools with extra funds. But it did suit the so-called Independent sector which had not been gaming the system as successfully as the Catholic administration.

    So – the Government, under threat of the ‘Catholic vote’, promised yet another review of funding processes – the Chaney Review. On 11 June 2018 the news came through that the Catholic schools had had a win and the independent schools a loss. The National School Resourcing Board was going to recommend “using powerful data-matching tools to link parents’ tax returns with their children’s school enrolment”.

    Both the Coalition and Labor are shamelessly courting the “Catholic vote” to the detriment of public funding for under-resourced public schools that are open to all students regardless of socioeconomic background.

    Only secular education should be paid for by taxpayers.

  9. Maybe her reelection has given her a new confidence.

    She understands product differentiation. Her electability isn’t dependent on the Liberal Party economic Drys. They are still all in Trickle’s boat. The small l Libs that deserted the dynasty aren’t wedded to delusions of supply side economics. She won’t lose any of them opposing corporate tax cuts. And the voters that put her 2PP out of reach are Labor and Green voters.

    It would be insane if she did other than kick Trumble in the nuts and align with her voters.

  10. Pegasus

    Catholic schools provides secular education with added religion as a subject.
    And the shortfall not provided by the govt is paid by the families.
    Do you know how much the govt pays for each child on the Catholic system as compared to those in the public one?

  11. Peter Lewis on leadership polling.

    Liberal Labor Difference
    Too close to the big corporate and financial interests 67% 37% 30
    Out of touch with ordinary people 64% 48% 16
    Has a good team of leaders 45% 38% 7
    Moderate 56% 53% 3
    Have a vision for the future 52% 50% 2
    Have good policies 46% 45% 1
    Trustworthy 34% 33% 1
    Divided 56% 56% –
    Extreme 34% 34% –
    Clear about what they stand for 45% 46% -1
    Keeps its promises 33% 34% -1
    Will promise to do anything to win votes 64% 68% -4
    Understands the problems facing Australia 42% 50% -8
    Looks after the interests of working people 37% 57% -20

    I found “Has a good team of leaders”, “Have a vision for the future” and “Have good policies” interesting that they favour the Libs.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2018/jul/31/bill-shorten-will-win-on-traditional-labor-values-his-popularity-is-secondary

  12. With Zanetti and journos suddenly scrutinising MT …. along with the legal stuff coming out about Cash/GBR … it is looking like media moguls have seen the writing on the wall and, of course, Murdoch always wants to be aligned with the winner, so we now will have Shorten as the hero and “Murder Mal” will be the ongoing theme.

  13. New research by the Australia Institute reveals that across a broad range of economic measures, the Abbott/Turnbull government has performed the worst of any Australian government since Menzies took power in 1949. The institute’s paper also notes that historically there is little correlation between “business friendly” policies and economic performance.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2016/jun/14/new-research-abbott-and-turnbull-the-worst-economic-managers-since-menzies?CMP=share_btn_tw

  14. Victoria @ #668 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 9:44 am

    Do you know how much the govt pays for each child on the Catholic system as compared to those in the public one?

    Too much by far? Public funds should not be directed to any non-secular school. Or to any for-profit school, for that matter.

    Hell, private schools are one thing I’m happy to let the market decide the fate of. Use public funds only for public schools. If a family wants to send their kids to private school, then fine, they can foot the entire cost of that themselves. Either private schools will offer that service at a price that most can afford, or they won’t and people can just suck it up and use the public system.

  15. Peter Lewis almost cheer leading for Bill here.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2018/jul/31/bill-shorten-will-win-on-traditional-labor-values-his-popularity-is-secondary

    But maybe the simpletons in the CPG need this beaten into them.

    He’s pretty much got every base covered;
    -PPM is a sideshow
    -LOTO’s job isn’t to be popular
    -it’s the policies stupid
    -Shorten has demonstrated immense talent to get as far as he has so quickly
    -The policy positions that Labor are winning on rely heavily on a leader with courage
    -Under Bill Labor is united and fit for government
    -his perceived ‘weaknesses’ are his actual strengths.

    Of course we’ve been banging on about exactly these things for years. But who knows, maybe even Murph might have a light bulb moment reading this. (ha yeah I know that’s not gonna happen – still pushing the leadershit drum today and yet again referring to her own spin when #albogaveaspeech)

  16. Fifield has tried for the soft grey teddy-bear look, but he’s as deceptive as any other LNP.

    Simon Banks‏ @SimonBanksHB · 12h12 hours ago

    “The Deputy Prime Minister resigned immediately” claimed @SenatorFifield

    He didn’t

    That is a lie

    And a clear and simple breach of Ministerial Standards

    #QandA

  17. ItzaDream @ #58852 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 8:51 am

    The details of the anaesthesia and sedation techniques Dr Harris used have been explained, and the link includes video of him talking at the a Sydney trauma conference, in a very typical laid back anaesthetic style. How the intranasal Ketamine story got up I don’t know, but unsurprisingly, the route was intramuscular, the reason why Ketamine got clinical exposure in the first place, as I rabbitted on about the other night. The initial dose he chose (5mg/Kg) is on the low side (10mg/Kg IM is a full anaesthetic induction dose) but titrated to combine with the oral alprazolam to get the desired effect – sedated but breathing and maintaining the airway. This is incredibly courageous stuff, but what you do, as all anaesthetists know, when your back is to the wall and the chips are down. When someone is dying in front of you, you just do it, as calmly as you can possibly appear, while inside your whole system is surging with adrenalin.

    So much admiration for this man.

    The sedation involved 0.5mg oral alprazolam, then intramuscular ketamine, 5mg/kg for induction, with 2.5mg/kg top ups administered by non-medical divers along the way using pre-prepared syringes. 80% oxygen was administered via PEEP masks. And intramuscular atropine to combat hypersalivation.

    (PEEP means positive end expiratory pressure – at the end of a breath the airway pressure is kept a bit above atmospheric which helps hold airways open; commonly used in OR and ICU, and watch someone with chronic airways disease purse their lips at the end of expiration – that’s what they are doing)

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/people/2018/07/31/richard-harris-thai-cave-sedatives/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%2020180731

    Thanks ID. This was a technical and ethical triumph on a par with Apollo 13, and we are all the richer for it.

  18. Hell, private schools are one thing I’m happy to let the market decide the fate of

    I’d agree. Except I want Labor in government.

    There are much worse things in the world than contributing some taxpayer funds for kids to get a private education. And it’s a small price to pay to get the chance to address some of those much worse things.

  19. The planet’s largest colony of king penguins has declined by nearly 90% in three decades, researchers have warned.

    The last time scientists set foot on France’s remote Île aux Cochons – roughly half way between the tip of Africa and Antarctica – the island was blanketed by 2m of the penguins, which stand about a metre tall.

    But recent satellite images and photos taken from helicopters show the population has collapsed, with barely 200,000 remaining, according to a study published in Antarctic Science.

    Climate change is, rather reluctantly I thought, acknowledged to be a factor.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/30/worlds-largest-king-penguin-colony-has-declined-by-90

  20. Fifield could make a fortune in Hollywood with his resting dopey face. They are highly prized among casting directors. His is magnificent.

  21. Thanks, ID for the link and explanation of Dr Harris’ sedation protocol. I was plumping for Ketamine + Alprazolam and was wondering how the Ketamine would have been administered. Not knowing what the half life of Ketamine was, because I was too lazy to look it up, lol, I assumed that the Alprazolam was the one that needed to be readministered as it is a short-acting benzodiazepine, but enough to get them through apparently. 🙂

  22. Urban Wronski‏ @UrbanWronski · 12h12 hours ago

    So Mitch Fifield can sit there on Q&A and lecture Australia on being accountable with public money when he’s given $30 million to Foxtel for no real reason and with no real accountability. Shifty hypocrite.

    This is where “resting dopey face” comes in very handy. Why can’t he be compelled to answer?

  23. Barney in Go Dau @ #643 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 9:08 am

    Itza and others,

    If your having problems trying to edit a comment I’ve found if you click on {The Poll Bludger} at the top left of the screen it takes you to the Dashboard.

    You should see your comment listed under “recent comments” with an option {Click to Edit} and also an option {Request Deletion}.

    This edit button has always worked for me, so I hope that helps. 🙂

    Thanks Barney. Good to know. In this case, the post failed to submit and I had to re-log in, but had sagely remembered to copy the post before the initial submit, as we have long ago learnt, so things musta got a bit muddled in the redoing. Thanks for the tip.

  24. For what it’s worth the political correspondent for Perth News? I think – somebody called Hondros? who I have not come across before, but was former editor of the Mandurah local paper, claims the Labor vote has “collapsed” in the seat of Perth. He bases his argument on the fact that voter turn-out was very low – just over 60%. He then makes the (mistaken) jump that the decline was due to all those Labor voters who were cross with Labor because the previous holder of the seat quit not long after, with much fanfare, that he was touted as Labor’s man of the future. Why Hondros did not consider that maybe some Liberal voters did not turn out is a puzzle to me, and thereby tends to invalidate his assertion.
    It is my view that the Libs were stupid not to have put someone up in Perth. It is not all that safe for Labor and Green preferences make the difference.
    This above article shows that given enough time and effort, a silver sliver can be found in any grey cloud.

  25. C@tmomma @ #690 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 7:35 am

    lizzie @ #677 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 10:03 am

    Meant to say earlier, I thought Lenore Taylor was a standout of clear, sensible logic on Q&A.

    But, but ‘Albo gave a speech!’ 🙄

    According to Amy R the other day in the Guardian it was also supported by some from Labor’s left making noises to the Press, so it doesn’t seem it was just the speech.

    I’m not saying that gave the story the total credibility it proclaimed but it doesn’t seem to have been as completely baseless as, “Albo gave a speech”! 🙂

  26. Ven @ #647 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 9:11 am

    BB@8:31am
    “stinks to high heaven”
    LNP created that government organisation, I might add with the help of Nick X, only to find dirt on Shorten because that organisation did not find any other organisation with irregularities to go after till now.
    Now wonder Sally Mcmanus wants Cash to resign.

    Yes. This. Which leads me to the question, why isn’t the ROC going after The Great Barrier Reef Foundation and the almost half a Billion $ they got from the taxpayer!?!
    We all know the answer to that, of course.

  27. According to Amy R the other day in the Guardian it was also supported by some from Labor’s left making noises to the Press, so it doesn’t seem it was just the speech.

    And, said ‘Labor Left’, who would, on any given day of the week take ANY opportunity to try and get their man up and over the top of the Right. Of course in the run-up to ‘Super Saturday’ they became full-on ear worms to the journos jonesing for Labor leadershit. And those same gormless journos, unless they had collectively had frontal lobotomies, would have known this. But they ran hard with it anyway.

    And they shouldn’t have.

  28. Sohar,
    Thanks for posting the Roy Morgan summary of Newspoll’s performance in Longman and Braddon. Last weekend provided us with a psephological reality check due to Newspoll’s coming up with the same 51-49 Labor edge in the National 2PP as they prognosticated for these two byelections.

    Tapping deeply into my Extra Psephory Perception here, Labor’s current byelections tallies of 52.4 and 54.4 round off to 52 and 54 for an average of 53. Accordingly, the infallible Prof. Higgins EPP postulates that Labor’s national 2PP figure, self-evidently, cannot be less than 53. 😉

  29. C@tmomma @ #697 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 7:52 am

    According to Amy R the other day in the Guardian it was also supported by some from Labor’s left making noises to the Press, so it doesn’t seem it was just the speech.

    Who would, on any given day of the week take ANY opportunity to try and get their man up and over the top of the Right. Of course in the run-up to ‘Super Saturday’ they became full-on ear worms to the journos jonesing for Labor leadershit. And those same gormless journos, unless they had collectively had frontal lobotomies, would have known this. But they ran hard with it anyway.

    And they shouldn’t have.

    So the journos are completely to blame, while those within the Party pushing for Albo are blameless? 🙂

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