Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll caps a weekend of status quo by-election results with a status quo poll result.

I’d have thought Newspoll might have had the week off, but The Australian reports that the latest instalment has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 7%. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 48%, Bill Shoten is steady on 32% and up one to 57%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 48-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1704.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. Trump And His Campaign Could Be Facing 10 Different Criminal Charges If They Conspired With Russia

    Frank Figliuzzi, former FBI Asst. Director for Counterintelligence said on MSNBC’s Deadline: White House:

    If you look in the dictionary, which I did, it says illegal cooperation or conspiracy. So really we should stop using the phrase collusion and just say criminal conspiracy. There is a host of criminal charges that could come into play here if it’s proven that there was so-called collusion. What are those charges? Look, if it’s proven that Russian money was flowing into the campaign, you’ve got election and campaign contribution violations. You have violations of the Emoluments Clause.

    If they were masking the origin of the Russian money, then you could have bank fraud and wire fraud and money laundering, and there is conspiracy, and there is accessory after the fact depending they knew what was happening. Here’s the key on the hacking. If they can indeed show campaign officials gave a green light or knew or encouraged the hacking into the DNC, then you have the same violations, cybercrime, computer fraud and abuse charges we saw lobbed onto the Russian hackers, you see conspiracy charges against the president or his campaign officials. So it is about crime.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2018/07/30/trump-criminal-charges-russia-conspiracy.html

  2. And Phil Coorey says the Turnbull government is splintering over its all-or-nothing approach to company tax cuts and may compromise by excluding the nation’s largest businesses, including banks.

    Surprise, surprise. Not. That’s Pauline’s position.

  3. I’m sure there are now many people who care more about having employment than having a tax cut. Business and the LNP are out of step with the world they have created with their austerity decisions.

  4. It is not the first time Anna has had some gfunding luck with the turnbulls 🙂
    Anna Marsden

    On Wednesday the 10 finalists pitched their tech ideas at Google in Sydney for a chance to each win a $750,000 grant, awarded by a judging panel that included David Gonski and Lucy Turnbull……………The Great Barrier Reef Foundation managing director Anna Marsden said the RangerBot

    https://probonoaustralia.com.au/news/2016/10/google-awards-5m-australian-charities/

  5. a r @ #571 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 11:29 pm

    C@tmomma @ #559 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 11:02 pm

    Desert Qlder @ #554 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 10:36 pm

    Lenore Taylor on Qanda – “Albo gave a speech”.

    She actually said that!?!

    Yes, but there were more words that followed. The statement didn’t end after “speech”.

    WTTE of “… gave a speech that any idiot should have understood was stating his availability to be leader if the party wanted him”.

    And bigger idiots in the Canberra Press Gallery decided was code for a leadership application.

    You know whose pay deserves to be cut? The pay of every member of the CPG who ginned up leadershit before the by-elections in a vain attempt to destabilise Labor!

  6. What could possibly go wrong?

    PM eyes deal with Catholic schools

    SIMON BENSON
    Malcolm Turnbull has seized control after the breakdown in relations between Catholic schools and Simon Birmingham. (Oz headline)

  7. Asked how the values of coal companies such as Peabody aligned with reef protection, she(Anna Marsden) said “they share a commitment to moving forward and transitioning away from fossil fuels and ensuring we can build the resilience of the Great Barrier Reef”.

    Yeah, when the Coal reserves run out in 300 years and the Great Barrier Reef is dead.

    Plus, what they will build will be a plastic Great Barrier Reef. Plastic, which is made out of fossil fuels. 😡

  8. Marsden said the organisation tried to find members that shared similar values and commitment to the reef.

    Yeah, I bet. Like none.

  9. I note that Mal The Merciless was taking credit for a certain bishop’s resignation yesterday. He obviously has the Pope wrapped around his little finger.

  10. The attempts of rapproachment with the Catholic church regarding school funding was always going to be a top order objective for Turnbull following the losses in Longman and Batman. In both cases last minute letters and Robocalls to Catholics urging a vote for Labor may partly explain the unpredicted surge in votes to Labor when compared to last minute polls.

    The timing of the resignation of Wilson in Adelaide may be co-incidental. But, you can be suspicious!

    A fix Turnbull is going to need is that his Independent Charities watchdog has announced an inquiry in to Stephen Elder and his group (the ones who organised the Robo calls and mailouts). Independent bodies sometimes like to exercise their independence.

    Malcolm Turnbull taking charge. What could possibly go wrong?

  11. You can see the govt’s problem though. They wanted to look like they were doing something about the reef but would be damned they would give any money to the leftie greenie organisations they hated and actually believed in climate change (and might actually do something)

  12. It really is difficult to wrap the thinking gear around the concept of giving away an untendered HALF A BILLION DOLLARS to a private organisation, funded hitherto by Climate Change deniers with no staff and no track record of anything except business practices and mindsets tending to destruction of the Reef (rather than its salvation), which had to be dragged kicking and screaming before the Senate to explain itself, and which, in history’s hottest year ever (and in the midst of a crippling drought) is not prepared to countenance any action whatsoever to combat Global Warming.

    I find that simply mind-boggling, especially while setting the dogs after Bill Shorten over merely *alleged* paperwork irregularities from 11 years ago, before he was even in politics.

    Fair dinkum. This stinks to high heaven.

  13. According to Sharri Marxson:

    EXCLUSIVE: Malcolm Turnbull has given his senior colleagues an unequivocal assurance he will not back down on tax cuts for big business after Labor’s lethal campaign on the policy in Longman.

  14. “…Climate Change deniers with no staff and no track record of anything except business practices and mindsets tending to destruction of the Reef (rather than its salvation), which had to be dragged kicking and screaming before the Senate to explain itself, and which, in history’s hottest year ever (and in the midst of a crippling drought) is not prepared to countenance any action whatsoever to combat Global Warming.”

    That ties in pretty neatly with the Government’s world view. They’re giving the money to kindred spirits.

  15. Good Morning Bludgers

    I come to you this morning with bad news, I’ve lost my fight to get FTTP rather than HFC, yesterday I got an installation notice letter from NBN. That resulted in the following email to Porter:

    Hi XXXXXX

    I’m emailing to follow up both on the attached letter I received from NBN today and on my email below.

    I note that you’ve neglected to reply to my email below dated 11th July despite the fact that you’ve opened it 26 times, the first time on 11th July and most recently yesterday. How hard could it be to prepare your excuses for your failure to follow through on the things you’d promised to do?

    I note from the letter attached, and the pamphlet that was enclosed from NBN that HFC is being installed at my house, which disappoints me greatly given that you had promised that I’d be receiving NBN. Going back to the ministers letter and his claims about the potential future performance of HFC, lets have a look at some of the major claims made by the Government and how they’ve stacked up against reality:
    • Most Australian’s would have a minimum 25mpbs by 2016 – hasn’t happened;
    • A technology choice program would allow for Australian’s to upgrade their NBN connection to FTTP if they chose to – there is no upgrade option from HFC to FTTP;
    • Under the technology choice program, Malcolm Turnbull claimed on Sky News prior to the 2013 election that an upgrade to FTTP would be nowhere near $5,000 and probably around $3,000. The lived reality is that an upgrade of the NBN infrastructure commonly costs tens of thousands of dollars – a material difference;
    • My area, in the current term of Government, was promised by NBN that we’d be connected to the NBN in 1H 2018 and the correspondence from NBN and the NBN website now says that we’re getting connected to the NBN in 1H 2019. Do NBN have any idea when the service is going to be connected in this area?, and;
    • I note media reports of a considerable number of problems with getting the NBN installed, and further problems with congestion on the network at peak times, hardly an advertisement for a well-engineered network.

    As a result of the above lies, misrepresentations and failures by the Government are you really surprised that I believe that my lived experience with HFC NBN is going to be substandard compared to fibre? I’m really not interested in hearing further lies and misrepresentations from the Government about what I’m going to experience if HFC is connected to my house, there are plenty of online resources that catalogue the problems associated with the technology.

    What I want to hear about is what Christian is doing to follow through on the promise that you made on his behalf, which was reflected on the NBN website for a period of time, to get my house connected to FTTP internet. You may not remember that I’ve previously stated that I’m happy to pay for the FTTP cable to be extended the ~60 cable meters from where it is at the moment to my house.

    Moving on from the NBN, I’d be interested in knowing what other matters within the electorate Christian plans on capitulating on despite promising to assist with their delivery, like the Ellenbrook Railway line, additional share of the GST for WA and/or the planned pool.

    As politicians are always interested in the happenings of the real world, I’ll share with you what would happen if I tried on what you’ve done where I work. I’m the finance and commercial coordinator for the division I work in and the turnover this year should hit $110m. If I promised something to a client, then went back on it without telling them and then spun a load of implausible nonsense when they called me out on it, I’d loose my job for it.

    I look forward to your response. Hopefully it’ll take less than 26 drafts over three weeks to respond to this email.

    Kind Regards

    Grimace

  16. GG

    Justice North is spot on.
    I have no faith in the AFP.
    They have been dragging their feet. It should not be taking this long.
    This situation also stinks to high heaven

  17. lizzie @ #619 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 8:41 am

    GG

    Malcolm desperate to retain loyalty after whomping in by-elections?

    It’s interesting that the Catholic Schools organisation is run by two Liberals, Stephen Elder, a former NSW State Liberal MP, and Christian Kerr, formerly of Crikey and ex-Liberal Press Secretary and very close friend of Christopher Pyne.

    So, they’ll probably get a bucket of money thrown at them now too, as, thanks to The Greens, there is no longer a debt ceiling for the Budget Deficit and the Coalition will now start trying to buy their way back to success in the federal election.

  18. Half a billion given away without due process; Labor recommitting to a National Integrity Commission. It’s hard to see this not ending in sadness for the Liberals. They may have taken raiding treasury a little too far.

  19. Turnbull giving over $500 million to the bunch of shonks to “save” the GBR translates to about $25 for every single person in Australia or about $100 for every family.

    This is OUR money, not Turnbull’s money.

  20. Greensborough Growler @ #623 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 8:45 am

    The front page of the Telegraph tells you he’s prepared to go down with his Corporate Tax cuts.

    He pretty much has to be. Abbott masterfully outmaneuvered him on the issue yesterday.

    He can’t drop the tax cuts now, because if he does it means that Tony Abbott was right.

  21. The details of the anaesthesia and sedation techniques Dr Harris used have been explained, and the link includes video of him talking at the a Sydney trauma conference, in a very typical laid back anaesthetic style. How the intranasal Ketamine story got up I don’t know, but unsurprisingly, the route was intramuscular, the reason why Ketamine got clinical exposure in the first place, as I rabbitted on about the other night. The initial dose he chose (5mg/Kg) is on the low side (10mg/Kg IM is a full anaesthetic induction dose) but titrated to combine with the oral alprazolam to get the desired effect – sedated but breathing and maintaining the airway. This is incredibly courageous stuff, but what you do, as all anaesthetists know, when your back is to the wall and the chips are down. When someone is dying in front of you, you just do it, as calmly as you can possibly appear, while inside your whole system is surging with adrenalin.

    So much admiration for this man.

    The sedation involved 0.5mg oral alprazolam, then intramuscular ketamine, 5mg/kg for induction, with 2.5mg/kg top ups administered by non-medical divers along the way using pre-prepared syringes. 80% oxygen was administered via PEEP masks. And intramuscular atropine to combat hypersalivation.

    (PEEP means positive end expiratory pressure – at the end of a breath the airway pressure is kept a bit above atmospheric which helps hold airways open; commonly used in OR and ICU, and watch someone with chronic airways disease purse their lips at the end of expiration – that’s what they are doing)

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/people/2018/07/31/richard-harris-thai-cave-sedatives/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%2020180731

  22. Simon Banks‏ @SimonBanksHB · 11h11 hours ago

    Fully funding #Gonski delivers almost 3 times the economic growth of the Government’s corporate tax cuts

    At 2/3rds of the cost to the Budget

    That benefits all Australians

    Time for better choices

  23. Bushfire Bill @ #608 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 8:20 am

    I note that Mal The Merciless was taking credit for a certain bishop’s resignation yesterday. He has the Pope wrapped around his little finger.

    BB

    I think you elevate Malcolm Muddler way too much by using Mal the Merciless. Now that term was used for Menzies “Ming the Merciless” but it assumes a mild level of competence. Malcolm deserves no association with a competent villain. Tom from Tom and Jerry would be more apt.

    PS for the young ones here, Menzies proud of his Scottish, pronounced his name “Mingus.”

    Once at a student demo there was a banner with a noose attached and the words “Swing with Ming” I was a kid but thought it very funny. It went along with “Lynch Bury and bury Lynch”, for two Cabinet members.

  24. Morning all. Another Democrat with strong anti-Putin views has been targetted for inside info on the Russia sanctions.

    A U.S. senator known for her outspoken criticism of Russian President Vladimir Putin was hit with a bizarre impersonation attempt by someone hoping to get inside information on American sanctions targeting Russia, according to emails and an audio recording obtained by The Daily Beast.

    Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) was contacted through her staff last November by an individual who said he worked for the foreign ministry of Latvia, a tiny Baltic nation supportive of efforts to rein in Russian aggression. The man said he was trying to set up a phone call between the senator and Edgars Rinkevičs, the Latvian foreign minister.

    The purpose of the meeting, he said in an email, was to discuss “prolongation of anti-Russian sanctions” and “general security with Kaspersky laboratory case.”

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/mystery-sting-targets-us-senator-for-dirt-on-russia-sanctions

  25. I’m watching the new BBC series Patrick Melrose. Hugo Weaving and Pip Torrens are absolutely TERRIBLE types. So much so that I am laughing at it.

  26. ItzaDream @ #628 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 8:51 am

    The details of the anaesthesia and sedation techniques Dr Harris used have been explained, and the link includes video of him talking at the a Sydney trauma conference, in a very typical laid back anaesthetic style. How the intranasal Ketamine story got up I don’t know, but unsurprisingly, the route was intramuscular, the reason why Ketamine got clinical exposure in the first place, as I rabbitted on about the other night. The initial dose he chose (5mg/Kg) is on the low side (10mg/Kg IM is a full anaesthetic induction dose) but titrated to combine with the oral alprazolam to get the desired effect – sedated but breathing and maintaining the airway. This is incredibly courageous stuff, but what you do, as all anaesthetists know, when your back is to the wall and the chips are down. When someone is dying in front of you, you just do it, as calmly as you can possibly appear, while inside your whole system is surging with adrenalin.

    So much admiration for this man.

    The sedation involved 0.5mg oral alprazolam, then intramuscular ketamine, 5mg/kg for induction, with 2.5mg/kg top ups administered by non-medical divers along the way using pre-prepared syringes. 80% oxygen was administered via PEEP masks. And intramuscular atropine to combat hypersalivation.

    (PEEP means positive end expiratory pressure – at the end of a breath the airway pressure is kept a bit above atmospheric which helps hold airways open; commonly used in OR and ICU, and watch someone with chronic airways disease purse their lips at the end of expiration – that’s what they are doing)

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/people/2018/07/31/richard-harris-thai-cave-sedatives/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%2020180731

    EDIT
    Third paragraph is a quote – block quotes failed and edit function not letting me in

  27. If the govt takes these tax cuts to the next election they are going to be slaughtered. It’s a ready made campaign for Labor which ties into the preconceived notion Turnbull is out of touch and only cares for the wealthy. Campaigns which reinforce already held negative perceptions about people are devastating.

  28. Frednk – Another big problem for Malcolm is that he put himself IN DA ROOM when the loot was handed over. He obviously wanted his mates to kiss his ring (both of them). What a dummie.

  29. Cohen could hold the smoking gun.

    What has been lacking so far is the “smoking gun.” Cohen may just supply it, if his purported testimony is credible and corroborated (admittedly big ifs). Indeed, Rudolph W. Giuliani, Trump’s lawyer, has gone from arguing that Trump didn’t know about the Trump Tower meeting to arguing that the then-candidate wasn’t present (which no one has alleged he was) — and from arguing that no collusion occurred to arguing that collusion, even if it occurred, is no big deal. This is his actual defense: “My client didn’t do it, and even if he did it, it’s not a crime.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/if-trump-does-it-its-not-a-crime-or-so-republicans-think/2018/07/30/f7013482-9431-11e8-80e1-00e80e1fdf43_story.html?utm_term=.c03b00c5ed6c

  30. ItzaDream @ #626 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 8:51 am

    The details of the anaesthesia and sedation techniques Dr Harris used have been explained, and the link includes video of him talking at the a Sydney trauma conference, in a very typical laid back anaesthetic style. How the intranasal Ketamine story got up I don’t know, but unsurprisingly, the route was intramuscular, the reason why Ketamine got clinical exposure in the first place, as I rabbitted on about the other night. The initial dose he chose (5mg/Kg) is on the low side (10mg/Kg IM is a full anaesthetic induction dose) but titrated to combine with the oral alprazolam to get the desired effect – sedated but breathing and maintaining the airway. This is incredibly courageous stuff, but what you do, as all anaesthetists know, when your back is to the wall and the chips are down. When someone is dying in front of you, you just do it, as calmly as you can possibly appear, while inside your whole system is surging with adrenalin.

    So much admiration for this man.

    The sedation involved 0.5mg oral alprazolam, then intramuscular ketamine, 5mg/kg for induction, with 2.5mg/kg top ups administered by non-medical divers along the way using pre-prepared syringes. 80% oxygen was administered via PEEP masks. And intramuscular atropine to combat hypersalivation.

    (PEEP means positive end expiratory pressure – at the end of a breath the airway pressure is kept a bit above atmospheric which helps hold airways open; commonly used in OR and ICU, and watch someone with chronic airways disease purse their lips at the end of expiration – that’s what they are doing)

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/people/2018/07/31/richard-harris-thai-cave-sedatives/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%2020180731

    Itza

    I have to agree 100%. His courage and nerves of steel really do deserve the term bravery.

    To do it once in an emergency is what we might expect of an emergency doctor – Adrenalin allows you to do it. He did it calmly over days 13 times. An amazing feat.

    He is my hero. It is great to have at least one genuine hero.

  31. GG@8:26am
    “The timing of the resignation of Wilson in Adelaide may be co-incidental”
    Right! Like the timing of by-elections, where ALP was defending 4 seats and LNP was defending none, vis-a-vis ALP National Conference was “co-incidental”.

  32. Socrates @ #592 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 7:26 am

    Six years of economic zero progress, with only population growth causing GDP to rise. No wonder they have kept immigration high!
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/31/more-australians-renting-and-in-housing-stress-as-disposable-incomes-stagnate

    Give that man a cigar! Population growth is being kept high not in your interest, but in their interests. And I would include the ALP in perpetuating this ponzi scheme as well. Rudd was certainly onside with it.

  33. Itza and others,

    If your having problems trying to edit a comment I’ve found if you click on {The Poll Bludger} at the top left of the screen it takes you to the Dashboard.

    You should see your comment listed under “recent comments” with an option {Click to Edit} and also an option {Request Deletion}.

    This edit button has always worked for me, so I hope that helps. 🙂

  34. lizzie @ #581 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 4:44 am

    adrian

    The only mention I have seen is on PB, and Kristina Keneally on Twitter reporting on Estimates. I hope that Labor picks it up and runs strongly on it. It seems that all the bankers took part of the money and ‘invested ‘ it in their own accounts.

    From The Grauniad. It was “above the fold” last night:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/30/malcolm-turnbull-present-when-443-million-dollars-offered-to-small-group-without-tender-inquiry-hears

  35. Fess

    Yep. I still can’t figure out if Guiliani has made a deal with the feds, and is sabotaging Trump by trying to appear helpful. Cos his approach doesn’t make a lot of sense.

  36. Victoria @ #639 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 9:02 am

    Fess

    Trump’s latest tweets and Guiluani’s interviews today illustrate just how stuffed they are.

    Given Mueller has the Cohen tapes and their contents have been released, it’s likely that Mueller also has corroborating testimony or information already and they are testing the Trump camp for lies and discrepancies.

  37. BB@8:31am
    “stinks to high heaven”
    LNP created that government organisation, I might add with the help of Nick X, only to find dirt on Shorten because that organisation did not find any other organisation with irregularities to go after till now.
    Now wonder Sally Mcmanus wants Cash to resign.

  38. Vic:

    I very much doubt Giuliani is working with the feds. His job seems to be to muddy the waters of public opinion and create doubt among the Trumpsters so when the shit hits the fan there’s a public backlash against Mueller and Republicans who support the investigation.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *