Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll caps a weekend of status quo by-election results with a status quo poll result.

I’d have thought Newspoll might have had the week off, but The Australian reports that the latest instalment has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 7%. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 48%, Bill Shoten is steady on 32% and up one to 57%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 48-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1704.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. ratsak

    Let me rephrase – I can’t bring myself to think that any thinking Australian, after having voted in Abbott, would like to repeat the performance with Dutton.

    Just like I like to think that any thinking American would do the same with Trump.

  2. ar @ 9:41 “Also, the ‘people’s panel’ guy does indeed seem to be a full-blown neo-liberal…”

    I never doubted that Malcolm was full on board with the Big Money / IPA program. I don’t think that there are any economic dissenters in the Liberal Party. They do moderate their belief in small Government / small spending when it comes to mates (see discussion re a remarkable funding decision above) and to for pork-barreling purposes.

    What we thought was different about Malcolm was that he was a social liberal and also that he believed that climate change was a serious problem requiring action. Climate change is an existential threat beyond ideology. Conservatives and Progressives might disagree on how best to tackle it, but denying there’s a problem is idiocy. The Liberals are full of idiots. Also, someone who wouldn’t reach for the dogwhistle.

    To the extent that Malcom was ever a social liberal who wanted to tackle climate change, it had not informed his premiership. I honestly can’t see what the problem is with Turnbull for the Bolts, the (Alan) Joneses and the rest of the Right, other than Abbott, of course, because Turnbull stole the Precious.

  3. And first cab off the rank at the National Integrity Commission: the almost half a Billion gift to the little charity run by MT’s mates in the fossil fuel and banking industry. 🙂

  4. Kristina Keneally
    ‏Verified account @KKeneally
    5h5 hours ago

    This an extraordinary situation – a private charity financially supported by mining firms, big banks and the BCA has been handed nearly half-a-billion dollars of taxpayer money in a private meeting by the Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull.

  5. Ah, fess and C@t , I had thought bemused had disappeared to join the Men’s Rights Movement with that LDP Senator! (Notwithstanding both of them have never been seen in the same room together…)

    I wondered why it has been so pleasant here of late — I had thought it was just the by-election results and the CPG cumuppence that had given the place a more festive vibe.

    Good riddance to bad rubbish!

  6. Jim Chalmers is a superb communicator, and a very good media presence for the Australian Labor Party.

    He should be made a person of focus in any future Labor Government.

    Good Queenslander to boot.

  7. Donald J. TrumpVerified account@realDonaldTrump
    57m57 minutes ago
    We must have Border Security, get rid of Chain, Lottery, Catch & Release Sanctuary Cities – go to Merit based Immigration. Protect ICE and Law Enforcement and, of course, keep building, but much faster, THE WALL!

    Executive time.

  8. kezza2 @ #551 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 10:07 pm


    Let me rephrase – I can’t bring myself to think that any thinking Australian, after having voted in Abbott, would like to repeat the performance with Dutton.

    Just like I like to think that any thinking American would do the same with Trump.

    I don’t believe that any thinking person voted for Abbott, but there are a lot of brain dead people that vote…

  9. Confessions @ #557 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 10:55 pm

    Donald J. TrumpVerified account@realDonaldTrump
    57m57 minutes ago
    We must have Border Security, get rid of Chain, Lottery, Catch & Release Sanctuary Cities – go to Merit based Immigration. Protect ICE and Law Enforcement and, of course, keep building, but much faster, THE WALL!

    Executive time.

    He’s accelerating really quickly into full tilt Authoritarian strongman ruler. Sad.

  10. It doesn’t seem as though this Stilgherrian character is going to let go of the My Health Record bone any time soon:

    He points out that what the government says and what the legislation says are two different things:

    The government’s denials are several, but they all fall under the broad heading of “denying there’s a problem with My Health Record”. It’s clear that they think it’s just a problem with the messaging. If they keep repeating lots of little stories about digital health records being useful, then people’s privacy fears will go away.

    Edit: quoting

  11. imacca says Monday, July 30, 2018 at 9:41 pm

    How juicy would it be for Dutton to roll Turnbull, become PM, and then lose his seat as part of a Liberal defeat?? Are the doGs above that good to us??

    You seem to be assuming that PM Dutton would take the country to a free and fair election.

  12. agoo44 @ 11.14 pm

    If the government wants its claim that My Health Records won’t ever be released without a court order to be taken seriously, it shouldn’t have any problem with amending the legislation to that effect. If they aren’t prepared to do that as a minimum, it proves that they are lying. Labor and the Senate crossbenchers should slam a Bill to that effect through the Senate when Parliament resumes, then dare the government to oppose it in the House.

  13. Actually, as someone who was in a position in the mid-1980s to watch the evolution of the Australia Card proposal, I’d have to say that the My Health Record saga is giving me a strong sense of deja vu all over again.

    While the product is quite different, my guess is that the process has been similar. Back then, the Health Insurance Commission came up with the original Australia Card idea, but then hawked it all around the Public Service in Canberra to try to build a whole-of-government constituency in its favour. That sort of worked, with lots of departments seeing benefits for themselves; but it also provided the basis for the campaign against “Orwellian” data gathering on individuals which ultimately sank the plan in the eyes of the public.

    Now if the reported costs of the My Health Record system are to be believed, it’s extremely likely that a similar process was undertaken with it: selling it as a whole-of-government initiative which would benefit the AFP, the ATO, etc. If so, section 70 of the My Health Records Act 2012 plainly wasn’t an afterthought, but an integral part of the plan. And that provides the best explanation of why the government is running the laughably implausible line that “policy” will prevent warrantless access, but will likely oppose any efforts to legislate to make that policy legally binding.

    Needless to say, I’ve already opted out. I’ve reached the point where I’ve had enough of governments and organisations hoovering up personal information, and then lying about it. The My Health Record system is one which as currently configured is heavily reliant on the honesty and good faith of those administering it, and their behaviour so far suggests that they are far from being honest, and from acting in good faith.

  14. “Ah, but, seriously, wouldn’t you like to light a fire under Tanya the Plib. C’mon, girl; get a bit of oomph.”

    saw that interview nd i reckon she may have had a slight hangover. 🙂

    “You seem to be assuming that PM Dutton would take the country to a free and fair election.”

    Hmmmm……he may have gotten some ideas from the 4 corners piece on Cambodia then??

  15. Gee, I’ve got the Reef’s well-being at heart too. So can somebody give me half a billion dollars too?

    And I like the idea of telling Australians (who so “desperately want to know”) about all the good work I’ll be doing, via the expensive ad campaign I’ll be running. Just trust me on that one will ya?

    I know you’re wondering when was the last time any one single organisationn got given a half-billion grant to do anything at all, without even tendering for it; in fact without even knowing about it until the day before the cheque was due to arrive. This includes universities, research organisations, the ABC, teaching hospitals or any other kind of government or quasi-government body that could either do the research or publicise it.

    It is a total outrage and heads should roll.

  16. And BB, the grant was given by none other than Turnbull himself, the same bloke who gave a Russian outfit $10 million about 11 years ago after they told him they could make it rain, even if there were no clouds.

  17. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, July 30, 2018 at 11:02 pm

    Desert Qlder @ #554 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 10:36 pm

    Lenore Taylor on Qanda – “Albo gave a speech”.

    She actually said that!?!

    Yep. Same excuse from KM on insiders.

  18. $400 million? Bloody hell.

    Imagine the first QT question:

    “Prime Minister, while $400 million isn’t a lot of money to you….”

  19. Funny, I would have thought that this half a billion dollar ‘grant’ would be big news.
    Yet it’s nowhere to be seen on the SMH, ABC or Guardian web sites that I can see after a quick look.

    Imagine if this were Labor. #56894 in a series.

  20. adrian

    The only mention I have seen is on PB, and Kristina Keneally on Twitter reporting on Estimates. I hope that Labor picks it up and runs strongly on it. It seems that all the bankers took part of the money and ‘invested ‘ it in their own accounts.

  21. Kristina Keneally‏Verified account @KKeneally · 13h13 hours ago

    Ms Marsden said that Prime Minister Turnbull, Minister Frydenberg & Dept Secretary Pratt personally met with GBRF Chair John Schubert in a private meeting on 9 April in Sydney and that the PM offered the $444m.

  22. About the GBR Foundation. The Age has Nicole Hasham – I saw the article last night.
    “Appearing at the first hearing of a Senate inquiry into the grant in Brisbane on Monday, Great Barrier Reef Foundation managing director Anna Marsden also insisted the charity would “do what the reef needs us to do”, but said this excluded calling for accelerated action on climate change.”

  23. Avenatti taunts Rudy Giuliani after his latest trainwreck CNN interview: ‘Whatever you do, don’t stop!’

    Stormy Daniels lawyer Michael Avenatti once again taunted Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani for his latest interview on CNN, in which the former New York mayor admitted he couldn’t know for sure if Trump had been telling the truth about not knowing about the infamous 2016 Trump Tower meeting with Russian agents.

    In a tweet posted after the interview, Avenatti mockingly congratulated Giuliani for conducting yet another interview in which he potentially damaged the case of his own client.

    “Great job on [CNN’s ‘New Day’],” he wrote. “Whatever you do, don’t stop giving interviews. So much winning.”

  24. phylactella

    One of the directors wrote a piece supporting new coal mines, but Ms Marsden said she didn’t know about it. They sound a very disorganised group to me. I wonder who drew them to Josh and Malcolm’s attention.

  25. Ex-Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort is first to go on trial in Mueller’s Russia probe

    Paul Manafort on Tuesday will become the first of President Donald Trump’s former aides to go on trial, accused of bank and tax fraud by federal investigators probing Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

    Despite a focus on financial crimes, the trial could yield politically damaging headlines about a man who ran Trump’s campaign for three months and attended a June 2016 meeting with Russians offering damaging information about Trump’s Democratic rival Hillary Clinton that is now a focal point of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s 14-month-old probe.

  26. simon holmes à court‏ @simonahac · 2h2 hours ago

    this is so messed up!

    @mattjcan has sent #GeorgeChristensen to japan, at @MineraIsCounciI expense, with 2 messages:
    1. government is energy technology neutral
    2. “Dear Japan, build us a ‘clean coal’ power station!”

    matt, they’re laughing at us!

  27. Ray Hadley on Channel 9 ripping Brian to shreds. Company tax cuts must go. Brian needs to tip buckets of money into struggling farmers, paid for by cutting foreign aid.

    It never ceases to amaze me how ‘city folk’ get gulled by the ‘struggling farmer’ meme. Broad acre agriculture west of the ranges is always going to be boom or bust, so farmers (many of whom come from families that have been on the land for generations) should plan ahead. If they can’t ‘future proof’ their business model that is proof positive that the farm ain’t viable. The government should be no more bailing them out than TCF manufacturers.

    Of course, the real ‘strugglers’ out there are graziers. The ones who have been clear felling remanant bush on a truly industrial scale as soon as LNP state governments gave them the Green Light upon assuming office in NSW and Qld over the past 6-7 years. The ones who have felling remanant bush by stealth for the 30 years before that. The ones who predecessors clear felled most of the continent in the century before that. Leaving aside the impacts (both present and future) because of fossil fuel caused climate climate, our climate has already been largely fucked because of this activity and nobody should be surprised that cattle stock are starving because the land is drying out. Of course, it is a source of irony that the greed driving landclearing has been fuelled by economic development in many of the countries we give foreign aid to, creating a market for beef and mutton. Now even goat meat.

    Now Gladys is being asked by Georgina what the government is doing to future proof farms. I have the answer. Take the boots off farmers and march them to Broome in summer as a re-education exercise. Then march them back if they survived (with their boots back, if they show an improved attitude). Purge the Kulaks!

  28. MSNBC legal scholar tells Morning Joe that Cohen flipping has put Trump ‘one witness away from catastrophe’

    When asked about last week’s leak that claimed Cohen is willing to tell special counsel Robert Mueller that Trump knew about the infamous 2016 Trump Tower meeting between Donald Trump Jr. and Russian agents, Turley did not sugarcoat the danger the president faces.

    “I think the current development is very serious,” Turley claimed. “He’s one witness away from a potential catastrophe. If any of those five witnesses breaks and supports Michael Cohen, this will get real bad, real fast.”

    Turley noted that any witness corroborating Cohen’s account would give Mueller the ammunition he needed to go after Donald Trump Jr., who swore under oath that he did not tell his father about the Russia meeting.

  29. Morning all. This Guardian analysis of the long term Household Incomes survey (HILDA) has some grim facts in it. Like that most Australians were no better off when Turnbull was elected than when Julia Gillard was PM (or Rudd). Six years of economic zero progress, with only population growth causing GDP to rise. No wonder they have kept immigration high!

    The other highlight is half a generation still living at home and many giving up hope they will ever own their own home. Thanks Malcolm, thanks Tony.

  30. Victoria is refusing to sign up to the National Energy Guarantee until Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull can give assurances that his entire caucus is locked in behind the scheme.

    …“Malcolm Turnbull is trying to get us to sign up to something that hasn’t gone to his own party room – a place full of climate sceptics,” Ms D’Ambrosio’s speech notes say, arguing that climate change sceptics in the Coalition’s ranks have stood in the way of progress on reducing emissions for too long.

    “Every time we get close to a national energy policy, the Coalition party room shoots it down …How can we have any confidence in what they’re asking from us if it hasn’t been through his party room first? We won’t rush into supporting a policy that we’re not certain is in the best interests of Victorians, just to appease the coal ideologues in Canberra.”

  31. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. It would appear from today’s testing that The Australian has found away to block Outline from working. The Google trick still works though. Oh well.

    Here are the details of the latest Guardian/Essential poll.
    Peter Lewis says Bill Shorten will win on traditional Labor values. His popularity is secondary.
    Matt Wade explains how Sydney’s long property boom has left one in eight low and middle-income earners across the city in housing stress, the highest proportion in Australia.
    David Crowe tells us about the visible cracks appearing in the Coalition’s stance on high end company tax cuts.
    And Phil Coorey says the Turnbull government is splintering over its all-or-nothing approach to company tax cuts and may compromise by excluding the nation’s largest businesses, including banks.
    Meanwhile business groups are telling the government to not “retreat at the first gunshot”.
    On the other hand, business is hedging its bets over who will win the next federal election, with the Labor Party reporting a surge of interest in its Business Observer summit scheduled for August.
    Paula Matthewson explains how Labor has identified a key ingredient of the secret sauce to attract voters.
    Stephen Bartholomeusz tells us how consumer are wising up to the likes of Facebook and Twitter.
    As fear over what will happen as the Brexit deadline approaches the panic is starting to take effect in the UK with hospitals stockpiling medicines and supermarkets buying up with food.
    Dana McCauley tells us that Sally McManus has called for Michaelia Cash to resign, as it emerged that a federal police investigation into raids on the Australian Workers Union will be referred to the Commonwealth prosecutor.
    Nicole Hasham reports on the extraordinary disclosures at yesterday’s Senate inquiry into the $433m loosely given grant to a shadowy Great Barrier Reek charity group. There will be much more to come on this story one would think.
    One of Australia’s 100 richest people, tech entrepreneur Christian Beck, can’t get a loan from the bank and blames the Hayne royal commission.
    Here’s the run down on last night’s Q and A. I thought the moderation of Tony Jones last night was pathetic. I couldn’t go the distance.
    Peter Hartcher talks about the collapse of democracy and how Cambodia has just joined the club.
    The SMH editorial describes the Cambodian “election” as a taking another depressing step back.
    Jenna Price justifiably gets stuck into Cricket Australia.
    As does John Birmingham.
    Elizabeth Knight examines the carnage at Telstra, saying it is losing talent at precisely the wrong time.
    Victoria is refusing to sign up to the National Energy Guarantee until Malcolm Turnbull can give assurances that his entire caucus is locked in behind the scheme. “Control the sceptics or we’ll walk”, says Dan Andrews.
    The Turnbull government has refused to release an agreement it signed with China covering the controversial “Belt and Road Initiative” infrastructure program on the grounds Beijing does not want it made public. David Wroe reports that the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has refused to release the agreement under the Freedom of Information Act.
    Ben Grubb reports that Australians are “rightly” concerned about the Turnbull government’s controversial My Health Record scheme and the security and privacy requirements of the record may need to change in order for government to regain the public’s trust, Australia’s Acting Privacy Commissioner says. This government does have a lot of trouble with commissioners!
    This oncologist tells us that patients trust their secrets to doctors, not the government or the tax office.
    Rebekha Sharkie has angrily rejected suggestions that her supporters were responsible for vile sexual comments directed at Georgina Downer during the Mayo by-election campaign.
    South Australia’s workers rehabilitation fund warns its claims liability could blow out by up to $570 million if it loses a Supreme Court appeal against a worker who suffered a series of post-surgery complications, largely due to opioid use.
    This lawyer puts the case for nominating some “Arseholes of the Week”.
    And it’s goodbye Philip!
    How the everyday commute is changing who we are.
    The Washington Post on how Giuliani has just obliterated the goal posts on Trump-Russia collusion.
    Giuliani’s lost the plot!
    Vogue magazine has issued a decree – pubic hair is BACK!

    Cartoon Corner

    There’s a lot to see in this David Rowe effort!

    Mark David with Turnbull’s trickle down problem.

    Peter Broelman visits the DPP with Michaelia.

    Zanetti on Turnbull’s preparations for Super Saturday.

    And its aftermath.

    Christopher Downes has Turnbull singing the blues.

    Matt Golding and Schadenfreude Monday.

    Sean Leahy and the Malaysian government’s final report on MH370.

    David Pope with yet another cracker! MUST SEE.
    More good ones in here.

  32. Morning all

    Turnbull ought be required to give a full account of the GBR grant. It stinks to high heaven

    Meanwhile Guiliani is doing his best impression of being the worst counsel for Trump. Is it a deliberate strategy? Who knows. This shit show is Cray Cray.

  33. phylactella @ #583 Tuesday, July 31st, 2018 – 6:55 am

    About the GBR Foundation. The Age has Nicole Hasham – I saw the article last night.
    “Appearing at the first hearing of a Senate inquiry into the grant in Brisbane on Monday, Great Barrier Reef Foundation managing director Anna Marsden also insisted the charity would “do what the reef needs us to do”, but said this excluded calling for accelerated action on climate change.”

    You know what doing ‘what the reef wants us to’ (and isn’t that just the biggest piece of spin cooked up by a PR firm that you have ever heard!?!) is?

    They want to install massive turbines under the sea to cool the water as it boils. Now I can just imagine what the tourists will think when they come to visit one of the great natural wonders of the world and look through their glass bottom boats to see these ugly, man-made monstrosities vainly attempting to turn back the clock on global warming. I don’t think they’ll return and they’ll tell their friends not to come.

    Plus, and in shades of Rainmaker Malcolm, they are going to do ‘Coral Seeding’ of the Reef! How stupid is that!?! They grow baby coral in aquaculture vats, then ‘seed’ them onto the Great Barrier Reef. To die.

    I suppose those fossil fuel and bank industry bozos on the board of the outfit gifted the half a billion to ‘save’ the GBR probably have controlling interests in all the businesses associated with their ‘cure’.

    This government, if you can call it that, as opposed to a special interest group, can’t be kicked to the kerb soon enough!

  34. A couple of things re Truffles ‘rain maker’. The $1o million was decided on when the government was in caretaker mode. The Chairman and part owner of the company,Matt Handbury (Nephew of Rupert), was a member of Truffles’ funding vehicle the Wentworth Forum.

    My fave bit is the presentation put on for the company re the technology.

    …..the National Water Commission, which insisted on a presentation of the technology for local physicists.

    The Rain Corporation presented research documents written in Russian, explained by a Russian researcher who spoke to local experts in Russian.

    “It’s kind of difficult, because he didn’t speak English or understand English, so we didn’t get a lot of information there, and as I said, such written information as they had was all in Russian. So couldn’t get anything out of that,” Professor Fletcher said.

    The physicists recommended more scientific work be done at no great expense before proceeding with any trial, which may then be worthwhile, they said.

    But Mr Turnbull decided the trial should proceed and authorised a $10 million payment.

  35. poroti,
    And I bet my bottom dollar, this Anna Marsden character is another old friend of Malcolm and Loocy Goosy. The Marsdens are a very old NSW Establishment family, like the Blighs.

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