Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Newspoll caps a weekend of status quo by-election results with a status quo poll result.

I’d have thought Newspoll might have had the week off, but The Australian reports that the latest instalment has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up a point on the primary vote to 39%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 7%. On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 42% and down one on disapproval to 48%, Bill Shoten is steady on 32% and up one to 57%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 48-29. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1704.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,024 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. Watching The Drum in WA. Just saw Ellen Fanning give Georgina Downer an absolute pasting over her climate change views and her association with the IPA and that organisation’s very strong reliance on funding from Georgina Hancock. To say GD was floundering would be putting it mildly

  2. ANTONBRUCKNER11 @ #547 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 5:39 pm

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/30/malcolm-turnbull-present-when-443-million-dollars-offered-to-small-group-without-tender-inquiry-hears

    This really is looking like a big scandal. Prime Minister Lucy and I turns up to offer half a bill to an organisation that hasn’t even asked for it

    This is the kind of reporting on the workings of govt we need more of. I notice from the report the Foundation has a ‘chairman’s panel’ comprising large organisations who pay to be a member. Some of the organisations have questionable claims to protecting the GBR.

    The inquiry heard the foundation’s chairman’s panel, a corporate membership group made up of chief executives and directors of companies including Commonwealth Bank, BHP, Qantas, Shell and Peabody Energy, has 55 members, each of whom pay $20,000 a year for membership.

  3. Fess, Steve

    Yes agreed. The interferrence in the AFP raid has been admitted, so there seems very little justification for such a long delay in resolving it.

    I can just imagine Michaela entering court with her legal team moving a whiteboard in front of her.

  4. If I was that sort of person I might start thinking that, with the weekend’s byelection results, some individuals and organisations might now be planning for a change of government in less than 12 months, and so adjusting their actions accordingly. So, we might see more activity from the AFP’s various investigations into government. We might also see greater scrutiny of the government by some journalists.

  5. Huh!

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/30/malcolm-turnbull-present-when-443-million-dollars-offered-to-small-group-without-tender-inquiry-hears

    One of the first things you would think you need when applying for money from our government, or anyone really, is knowing what you want to spend it on. You know, you have to answer stuff like, “What do you want to achieve?”, “Why is that important?”, “How are you going to achieve that?”, and so on. But in reverse, if someone asked me to a meeting and offered by $443,800,000.00 to “save” something, what would be the first thing I would do? Well, after a bit of stunned silence, I would probably ask “What’s in it for you?” Assuming the forthcoming answer was legal and/or OK by my personal values), I would figure out how to spend the money to achieve that goal while keeping as much as possible of the fool’s money for myself and my friends.

    So for the rest of us, follow the money, I guess.

  6. On Mr Denmore’s excellent blog, The Failed Estate, I read a suggestion for a Netflix-style public interest journalism website. It would be great to pay 10 or 15 dollars a month and get access to a bundle of websites and blogs that have high quality content. Poll Bludger, The Failed Estate, The Saturday Paper, The Monthly, Billy Blog, Piping Shrike, Michael West etc.

  7. Is Leigh Sales going to mention the by-election?
    ___________________________________

    As late as possible – and only by interviewing La Tingle.

    Sales then announced that Shorten, Turnbull AND Dutton all refused the opportunity for an interview.

    Ha. Ha. Ha.

  8. Credlin providing excellent comedy tonight.

    A left party and a bit more left party!

    Trumble lost in Longman cause he’s a commie!

    I know I predicted exactly this reaction, but damn the reality is exceeding my expectations and my sides hurt.

  9. And the BCA and ACCI are out telling Trumble to not get any ideas of abandoning his commitment to tax cuts for them like he has with every other idea he’s even pretended to believe in.

    Bill obviously had to tell Leigh he couldn’t make it because pissing yourself laughing isn’t a good look in a political interview.

  10. Late Riser. That is brewing as a mega-scandal that will dog Turnbull to the next election. Sounds like Turnbull was doing a favour for one of his business mates and that is why he was stupid enough to turn up to the meeting. What a moron.

  11. Re AB11 @7:39PM.

    That article in the Guardian did not allow comments. $430 million to a shadowy group of businessmen (i.e. Liberal mates) to ‘protect’ the Barrier Reef? Looks dodgy as all getout. Just imagine the furore if Labor dud something like that, say giving $430 million to the ACTU
    .
    Invistigating this should be near the top of the agenda for a new Labor Government.

  12. “Sales then announced that Shorten, Turnbull AND Dutton all refused the opportunity for an interview”
    Shorten because he can’t stand Sales, the other two because they are gutless idiots.

  13. So, now news on the AFP raids (well done Cash), breaking scandal (finally) on the Reef Rort,??

    Their “signature” big business tax cuts in the toilet, Abbott going the disruptive dog whistle on all things immigration…….

    and its being reported and discussed in the MSM.

    Seems that Malcolm lurrrve is getting a bit thin on the ground. 🙂

  14. “On Mr Denmore’s excellent blog, The Failed Estate, I read a suggestion for a Netflix-style public interest journalism website. It would be great to pay 10 or 15 dollars a month and get access to a bundle of websites and blogs that have high quality content. Poll Bludger, The Failed Estate, The Saturday Paper, The Monthly, Billy Blog, Piping Shrike, Michael West etc.”

    Nicholas. What is happening. I’m agreeing with virtually everything you have posted over the past 48 hours.

    Scare Bleu!

  15. AB11

    Knowing how Trumble has operated in the past you should be looking for links between the companies involved with this Reef rort and donors to the Wentworth Forum

  16. “Archbishop Wilson has resigned.”

    Disgraceful. He should not have been allowed to resign. He should have been sacked for cause. Stripped of his office. Defrocked.

    It’s the Pope who should be resigning.

  17. Sales then announced that Shorten, Turnbull AND Dutton all refused the opportunity for an interview.

    Why would anyone want to be ‘interviewed’ by Sales when all she does is interrupt you and talk over the top of you when you’re answering!

  18. I see the venerable West was considered by some here to be left-of-centre.
    have expressed the opinion more than once here that regardless of its politics, the West has to rate – along with the local Sunday Times – as the poorest examples of metropolitan dailies – the Darwin paper notwithstanding – in Oz.
    The West is part of Seven West Media and the paper – via its editorial – never misses and opportunity to talk up the WA economy – nothing wrong with that -but it is, heart and soul, a right-wing, Liberal friendly paper. When it boasts the likes of the local Paul Murray, Bolt and Gary Adshead as its opinion leaders, this speaks for itself.
    However, it must be said that Shane Wright and some others of its writers endeavour to be more balanced in their views. Also, the paper gave up on Colin Barnett……………
    Regardless, it has a declining readership and many of those who do still”get” the West, tend to be older and/or live in the country. Its influence over local politics is declining – along with many others in the pulp media.

  19. Ratsak – You’re right. And Malcolm obviously wanted to be in the room to make it clear to his mates that he was doing them a biggie. What a monumental sleazy dill.

  20. “Looks dodgy as all getout. Just imagine the furore if Labor dud something like that, say giving $430 million to the ACTU”

    I’m old enough to remember the Ros Kelly Whiteboard thing. This issue really gets me, not the least as i somewhat work in marine science teaching /research, and know there are a LOT of more effective bodies that could have actually done something with that dosh rather than trousering millions of it.

    Its a rort and in any really effective political system heads would have rolled and arses been kicked by now. Media should have Malcolm pinned on this to give a full and public explanation outside of parliamentary privilege.

  21. Interestingly Bolt has acknowledged that Bill Shorten was subject to a pack attack by the media prior to the by-elections. (albeit as part of an attack on Malcolm Turnbull for not achieving a better result for the Liberals).

  22. For those wondering about the appointment of Turnbull’s chief of staff as the new APS Commissioner, this is the union’s take per Michelle Grattan on the Conversation:

    ‘The Community and Public Sector Union welcomed the Woolcott appointment, saying it “offers a much needed break from the damaging ideological agenda of John Lloyd”.

    CPSU National Secretary Nadine Flood said: “It’s unusual to have a career diplomat appointed as Public Service Commissioner, but Peter Woolcott is a welcome and plainly also a much needed change given his long history of working in the Australian public service.”’

  23. Interestingly Bolt has acknowledged that Bill Shorten was subject to a pack attack by the media prior to the by-elections.

    Has the dual benefits of:
    1. being true, and,
    2. making Trumble look even more feeble.

    Now obviously 1 is not usually a concern for Blot, but he’s not a complete fool. No need to use bullshit to support your argument when you have the truth on your side.

  24. Confessions says:
    Monday, July 30, 2018 at 8:25 pm
    Darn @ #475 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 6:22 pm

    It’s death by a thousand cuts for Malcolm Turnbull on the Price and Bolt show tonight.

    I can well imagine. Let’s hope the coalition Bring Back Tony!

    Fess

    It’s probably too much to hope for, but if Bolt and most of his listeners had their way Tony would be back tomorrow.

  25. Media should have Malcolm pinned on this to give a full and public explanation outside of parliamentary privilege.

    But…but…but. Albo Gave A Speech!!

  26. Confessions @ #481 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 8:25 pm

    Darn @ #475 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 6:22 pm

    It’s death by a thousand cuts for Malcolm Turnbull on the Price and Bolt show tonight.

    I can well imagine. Let’s hope the coalition Bring Back Tony!

    Conversation I had tonight regarding “Who is there after Malcolm?” Summarizing: Dutton? Nope. End of LNP for a long while. Frydenberg? He comes across like someone caught in the headlights. So yes please! Morrison? Blanket talks talks talks? So, no. Julie? Who? Maybe Hunt? Yeah. He’ll do. Hunt. Hunt . Hunt. (Odd thing was that Abbot never got mentioned.)

  27. “Late Riser. That is brewing as a mega-scandal that will dog Turnbull to the next election. Sounds like Turnbull was doing a favour for one of his business mates…”

    It might Dog Turnbull in the Saturday Paper and the Guardian, but the mainstream media will bury it in a corner on page 13 or broadcast it after their fluffy animal story if they report it at all. The ABC are too cowered to give it any prominence, if they dare to tpreport it at all.

  28. Late Riser:

    The times suited Abbott’s leadership in opposition but he doesn’t have what it takes to be a leader in govt. Hence why I hope his campaigning for the leadership prevails.

    One thing is JBishop won’t be deputy, it’ll probably be Dutton. Can you imagine how much that duo would frighten the horses!

  29. Steve777 @ #464 Monday, July 30th, 2018 – 8:18 pm

    Re AB11 @7:39PM.

    That article in the Guardian did not allow comments. $430 million to a shadowy group of businessmen (i.e. Liberal mates) to ‘protect’ the Barrier Reef? Looks dodgy as all getout. Just imagine the furore if Labor dud something like that, say giving $430 million to the ACTU
    .
    Invistigating this should be near the top of the agenda for a new Labor Government.

    Reminds me of the last days of the Howard government when, as Environment Minister, Turnbull, knowing that Howard was more likely to lose than win the next election, shoveled that $10 Million to his Rainmaker mate.

  30. “Turnbull, knowing that Howard was more likely to lose than win the next election, shoveled that $10 Million to his Rainmaker mate.”

    Times 43

  31. I imagine the big comeuppance and social media pasting the CPG has copped since Saturday has brought them up short.

    The Drum tonight had poor Georgie under extreme hammering.

    The Cash thing hit it big.

    Suddenly all the media are noticing that leadership in the Liberal Party is the problem, not in ALP.

    Now the GBR story has finally popped (though most of us have noticed/asked questions here & on twitter it has been sleeping in terms of media).

    Has the ‘merger’ and SuperSat woken the sleeping dragon FINALLY?

  32. Confessions: You’re scaring me now. An Abbott/Dutton dream team? I suppose the damage can’t be worse, but for any Abbott you’d think even the LNP would try to balance it with someone less sinister than Dutton. Maybe I need to re-check my humanity.

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