Super Saturday live

Live coverage of the counting for the Super Saturday by-elections (especially Braddon and Longman).

9.31pm. So much for the last entry. Patrick Gorman’s projected two-party vote is now 61.6%.

9.18pm. It’s only based on 1000 votes from Leederville and Northbridge, and suburbs further out might tell a different story, but the first two-party results in Perth suggest Patrick Gorman is headed for a fairly modest winning over the Greens. Conversely, Josh Wilson is outpolling the Greens two to one in Fremantle.

9.00pm. The Devonport PPVC result is also nothing special for the Liberals, so the door has closed on them in Braddon now.

8.55pm. First figures from Perth don’t bear out ReachTEL’s indication of a strong Liberal Democrats result, with more of the homeless Liberal vote going to independent Paul Collins.

8.53pm. Labor think they have Braddon in the bag, and the Burnie PPVC result that has just come through might explain why: the Liberals have copped an 8.7% hit on the primary vote there. Only Devonport and Queenstown PPVCs, plus postals, yet to come.

8.20pm. Labor still tracking for a winning margin approaching 5% in Longman.

8.13pm. The first PPVC in from Braddon is Ulvertstone, which has only 513 votes. It’s indeed a bit better for the Liberals than polling day votes, with their primary vote down by 2.1%, compared with 6.6% overall – although that’s still less than what they need.

8.10pm. So there has been no swing at all out of the polling day booths in Braddon, which have produced around 47,000 votes. That means the Liberals need to conjure a swing of around 7.5% out of probably 10,000 pre-polls and 7000 postals. Which doesn’t seem terribly likely.

8.02pm. Only the PPVCs to come from Braddon now. Polls have closed in Perth and Fremantle.

7.52pm. The projected Labor margin in Braddon is down to 2.0%. Two more polling day booths to report in Braddon, plus the four pre-poll voting centres, which could yet disgorge many thousands of votes. However, it seems to be agreed that it’s time to pull the plug on the LNP in Longman, and Georgina Downer is conceding defeat in Mayo.

7.40pm. A bit of dispute on the ABC as to whether the LNP is getting 70% or 60% of One Nation preferences in Longman. They will need for it to be very high indeed, and for something highly dramatic to happen in the pre-poll voting centres.

7.38pm. A very quick count in Braddon, where the momentum against Labor is levelling off. The AEC now projects a 2.6% Labor margin, but the potential for a different dynamic from the pre-poll voting centres means a measure of caution is still advised.

7.25pm. I’ve now got primary vote swings of 8.6% against Labor and 6.7% against Liberal in Braddon, with Craig Garland now barely into double figures. Labor’s projected two-party is continuing its slow decline, now at 2.2%. Given the trend as larger booths come in, and the unknown factor of the large pre-poll voting centres that will come in later in the evening, I wouldn’t be ready to call this.

7.24pm. We’ve now gone from around 7000 to around 14,000 primary votes counted in Longman, and the earlier trend is continuing: Labor holding steady, Liberal down around 14%, One Nation on around 15%. So looking like a surprisingly solid Labor win. No surprises in Mayo.

7.18pm. The situation is still a little elusive in Braddon: two-party projections point to a Labor win, but the primary count is well ahead of it, and the Labor primary vote there is beginning to sag. Bit of a lull in Longman counting, but the early indications are extremely strong for Labor.

7.12pm. Picture beginning to change in Braddon as larger centres do less well for Craig Garland. The ABC now has the Labor swing at 2.7%, which is down from over 4% earlier. The AEC computer is calling it for Labor, but given that trend, this should be treated with caution at the moment.

7.10pm. Count progressing a little quick than I’d figure in Longman, and here too Labor are doing quite a bit better than expected, holding their own on the primary vote while One Nation gouges double figures out of the LNP.

7.02pm. There are some reasonably serious primary vote numbers in now from Braddon, and that earlier picture is still holding: Craig Garland is on 16.3%, and Liberal are down more than Labor. The first two-party results suggest this is converting into a two-party swing to Labor.

6.50pm. Still only 1591 votes counted, but the early dynamic in Braddon is that Craig Garland is doing very strongly, coming in at the high teens, and he’s gouging the Liberals twice as heavily as Labor. If this kept up, Labor would win pretty handily on preferences from 35% of the primary vote.

6.40pm. The first two small booths in from Braddon are Moorleah (183 votes), where Craig Garland has a fairly spectacular 26.8%, and Waratah (139 votes), where he has a rather more modest 10.8%. For the time being though, he’s gouging double figures out of both major parties’ primary votes.

6pm. Polls have closed in Braddon and Longman, and will do so in half an hour in Mayo, and two hours in Perth and Adelaide. Results for small booths in Braddon should start coming in very shortly, but it will have to wait an hour or so for anything meaningful from Longman. For my own benefit more than anything, I have mocked up summarised booth results for Braddon and Longman which will, when there’s actual data to plug into them, will show booth-level primary vote totals, percentages and swings for the Labor, Liberal(-National), Greens, One Nation and Craig Garland (both the latter two are identified, wrongly, as “IND”). Other than that, the AEC publishes its own perfectly good booth-matched projected results (though not nearly enough besides), which can naturally be found at the official results page.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

693 comments on “Super Saturday live”

  1. Another talking point from the Coalition that I am picking up is that, ‘Labor are having to spend a lot of money to shore up Bill Shorten’s leadership’.

    Simply because Labor have out-campaigned the Liberals again! It is spinning like a top territory from the Liberals.

  2. Grimace – I thought his most brilliant excuse was wte that “we got smashed in Longman because the ALP was desperate to shore up Shorten’s leadership so, they well, smashed us.”

  3. mikehilliard

    Sandgropers ? No wonder we want to secede. Sky panel flick on to first results from Freo and Pyne asked who the ‘coffefe’ is the 4th placed party and the rest knew not. They knew all the parties in the T’othersider seats. Vote 1 New Holland 🙂

  4. Jonathan Green

    @GreenJ

    I think what we can conclude from Super Saturday is that politics, and much of political media, operate at arm’s length from observable reality. Politics believing its own bullshit, media going for the ride coz true or not it makes a better story.

  5. ANTONBRUCKNER – as I commented in today’s earlier thread, single seat polling suffers from unique problems like poor randomness of samples, contamination of voters from different seats and over-polling of individuals. I’m not entirely sure what you mean by aggregated seat polling but these factors don’t apply to national polling.

  6. Probyn says “this was a test for Shorten, we were being told” — as if he is not part of that “we”

    What a disgrace!

  7. The Newspoll 51-49 to Labor in Longman probably resulted from them overestimating the % of ON second preferences going to the Libs.

    Newspoll may now want to rethink its ON preference allocation in its national polls, thereby giving a better 2PP split to Labor over Liberal. (That’s on the assumption Murdoch media allows them to do so.)

  8. Guardian live blog says it all…
    So what are you going to hear about in the next few days?

    Single seat polls are bupkis

    Labor’s policy differences have momentum

    Leadership talk from the Anthony Albanese camp will be given a bit of a shush

    Malcolm Turnbull will be under pressure

    Class warfare works

    Tony Abbott and co will be on the attack

    You’ll also hear about how hard it is for government’s to win opposition seats at byelections (given the last time was in 1920)

    That the byelection swing was contained to normal swings

    That Labor and the unions outspent the government and that made it almost impossible.

    The problem with those last three points (which are already starting to emerge from conservative camps) is that for the past couple of weeks, all we have heard from the government on the record and off, is how much pressure Shorten was under, how they were quietly confident, and how despite Labor’s ‘desperate’ spend, they were losing.

    Well, the night has spoken for itself.

  9. [The Newspoll 51-49 to Labor in Longman probably resulted from them overestimating the % of ON second preferences going to the Libs.

    Newspoll may now want to rethink its ON preference allocation in its national polls, thereby giving a better 2PP split to Labor over Liberal. (That’s on the assumption Murdoch media allows them to do so.)]

    Good point. Their fairy dust to their Newspoll formula a few months ago had given Turnbull breathing space and had (falsely) convinced the press gallery that things were improving for Turnbull…

  10. Antonb

    – I thought his most brilliant excuse was wte that “we got smashed in Longman because the ALP was desperate to shore up Shorten’s leadership so, they well, smashed us.”

    What greatwit said that?

  11. Hi Puffytmd

    ‘Tis no joke, it’s bin rayt waarm I tell thi’ – my lawns are looking parched and I’m looking very brown

    Glorious sunshine at the moment as well

  12. Okay, so Trevor wants to run again. He’s attempting to minimise his lies. He’s sucking up to Malcolm. Says ‘he’s standing up for people in our area’.

    Yeah right.

    Coalition ‘delivering better schools, better health care, tax relief for workers. We believe in reward for effort. We believe in stronger families and communities. ‘

    Yeah right.

    Jeez, Ruthenberg sounded like he was going for an Academy Award! What a ham!

  13. If it’s correct that Malcolm was a big drag on the Liberal vote in Longman, as Labor insiders claim (see the Guardian blog) then it is very easy to see the Qld rump of the party chosing a He Man like Dutton to take over. I thought a challenge to Malcolm was a bit fanciful. The Qld MPs may decide they have got no option and take the rest of the party with them.

  14. Big Trev allowed to wallow in self-pity for FAR TOO FUCKING long.

    Piss off mate, and go back to whatever it was you were doing before you wasted everyone’s fucking time tonight.

  15. mundo @ #1193 Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 – 7:30 pm

    Anyone here who thinks Saturday isn’t going to be a disaster for Labor just doesn’t have a clue, is on drugs or has coke bottle rose coloured glasses on.
    It isn’t a crime to accept that Labor is being royally shafted by the media and by decades old perceptions which always make it harder for the ALP to cut through.

    There I said it.
    ;

    All Bananas and blow at my place

  16. I think Dutton will challenge

    He has nothing to lose now — if he stays, he will lose his seat as the Turnbull Govt is swept out of office.

    As PM, Dutton might save some Qld furniture and gives him a chance to be leader of the opposition rather than jobless.

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