Super Saturday live

Live coverage of the counting for the Super Saturday by-elections (especially Braddon and Longman).

9.31pm. So much for the last entry. Patrick Gorman’s projected two-party vote is now 61.6%.

9.18pm. It’s only based on 1000 votes from Leederville and Northbridge, and suburbs further out might tell a different story, but the first two-party results in Perth suggest Patrick Gorman is headed for a fairly modest winning over the Greens. Conversely, Josh Wilson is outpolling the Greens two to one in Fremantle.

9.00pm. The Devonport PPVC result is also nothing special for the Liberals, so the door has closed on them in Braddon now.

8.55pm. First figures from Perth don’t bear out ReachTEL’s indication of a strong Liberal Democrats result, with more of the homeless Liberal vote going to independent Paul Collins.

8.53pm. Labor think they have Braddon in the bag, and the Burnie PPVC result that has just come through might explain why: the Liberals have copped an 8.7% hit on the primary vote there. Only Devonport and Queenstown PPVCs, plus postals, yet to come.

8.20pm. Labor still tracking for a winning margin approaching 5% in Longman.

8.13pm. The first PPVC in from Braddon is Ulvertstone, which has only 513 votes. It’s indeed a bit better for the Liberals than polling day votes, with their primary vote down by 2.1%, compared with 6.6% overall – although that’s still less than what they need.

8.10pm. So there has been no swing at all out of the polling day booths in Braddon, which have produced around 47,000 votes. That means the Liberals need to conjure a swing of around 7.5% out of probably 10,000 pre-polls and 7000 postals. Which doesn’t seem terribly likely.

8.02pm. Only the PPVCs to come from Braddon now. Polls have closed in Perth and Fremantle.

7.52pm. The projected Labor margin in Braddon is down to 2.0%. Two more polling day booths to report in Braddon, plus the four pre-poll voting centres, which could yet disgorge many thousands of votes. However, it seems to be agreed that it’s time to pull the plug on the LNP in Longman, and Georgina Downer is conceding defeat in Mayo.

7.40pm. A bit of dispute on the ABC as to whether the LNP is getting 70% or 60% of One Nation preferences in Longman. They will need for it to be very high indeed, and for something highly dramatic to happen in the pre-poll voting centres.

7.38pm. A very quick count in Braddon, where the momentum against Labor is levelling off. The AEC now projects a 2.6% Labor margin, but the potential for a different dynamic from the pre-poll voting centres means a measure of caution is still advised.

7.25pm. I’ve now got primary vote swings of 8.6% against Labor and 6.7% against Liberal in Braddon, with Craig Garland now barely into double figures. Labor’s projected two-party is continuing its slow decline, now at 2.2%. Given the trend as larger booths come in, and the unknown factor of the large pre-poll voting centres that will come in later in the evening, I wouldn’t be ready to call this.

7.24pm. We’ve now gone from around 7000 to around 14,000 primary votes counted in Longman, and the earlier trend is continuing: Labor holding steady, Liberal down around 14%, One Nation on around 15%. So looking like a surprisingly solid Labor win. No surprises in Mayo.

7.18pm. The situation is still a little elusive in Braddon: two-party projections point to a Labor win, but the primary count is well ahead of it, and the Labor primary vote there is beginning to sag. Bit of a lull in Longman counting, but the early indications are extremely strong for Labor.

7.12pm. Picture beginning to change in Braddon as larger centres do less well for Craig Garland. The ABC now has the Labor swing at 2.7%, which is down from over 4% earlier. The AEC computer is calling it for Labor, but given that trend, this should be treated with caution at the moment.

7.10pm. Count progressing a little quick than I’d figure in Longman, and here too Labor are doing quite a bit better than expected, holding their own on the primary vote while One Nation gouges double figures out of the LNP.

7.02pm. There are some reasonably serious primary vote numbers in now from Braddon, and that earlier picture is still holding: Craig Garland is on 16.3%, and Liberal are down more than Labor. The first two-party results suggest this is converting into a two-party swing to Labor.

6.50pm. Still only 1591 votes counted, but the early dynamic in Braddon is that Craig Garland is doing very strongly, coming in at the high teens, and he’s gouging the Liberals twice as heavily as Labor. If this kept up, Labor would win pretty handily on preferences from 35% of the primary vote.

6.40pm. The first two small booths in from Braddon are Moorleah (183 votes), where Craig Garland has a fairly spectacular 26.8%, and Waratah (139 votes), where he has a rather more modest 10.8%. For the time being though, he’s gouging double figures out of both major parties’ primary votes.

6pm. Polls have closed in Braddon and Longman, and will do so in half an hour in Mayo, and two hours in Perth and Adelaide. Results for small booths in Braddon should start coming in very shortly, but it will have to wait an hour or so for anything meaningful from Longman. For my own benefit more than anything, I have mocked up summarised booth results for Braddon and Longman which will, when there’s actual data to plug into them, will show booth-level primary vote totals, percentages and swings for the Labor, Liberal(-National), Greens, One Nation and Craig Garland (both the latter two are identified, wrongly, as “IND”). Other than that, the AEC publishes its own perfectly good booth-matched projected results (though not nearly enough besides), which can naturally be found at the official results page.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

693 comments on “Super Saturday live”

  1. This idea of “The Labor Machine” is giving me the pips. The LNP shambles is in envy mode. We’re not disorganised. No. They’re a machine! How to spot a LNP leaner? They mention the machine.

  2. Fiona Scott – she was the one complaining about asylum seekers clogging up the F4. But according to Abbott, she has sex appeal.

  3. I also said earlier this week that when Labor did win all their seats (as they were always going to) the pressure had to go back on Trumble. It had to go on Trumble because he is only suffered by probably the majority of his party. And they have powerful media voices.

    Well a 10% swing agin on primaries probably had me underestimating.

    Media deadshits will try and spin it, but if you think Peter Dutton isn’t looking at a 10% primary swing and a seriously sub 30% primary in the seat directly to his north and thinking something needs to be done you are as stupid as the people crapping on about Shorten being under pressure when Labor lost Longman.

    The right wing media aren’t going to go all Trent Zimmerman and try and play this up as a good result. Longman is a terrible terrible result for the Qld LNP and for Trumble personally. The Skynoos loons and the 2GB fruitloops aren’t going to miss the opportunity to smash him for it.

  4. ABC online spews ratbaggery yet again with: “…. some had suggested Bill Shorten’s leadership would be questioned if either seat was lost.”

    Some? Who the fark are these “some”? Wouldn’t want to fess up that it was your own and other MSM genius urgers (see ‘My Brother Jack’ for the egregious evilness of urgers) that concocted the latest leadershit.

    I complained a couple years ago about ABC’s leadershit, and got a reply that they had to report what Labor sources were telling them anonymously. In other words, leadershit is their Neverending Story because there will always be a disappointed/disgruntled backbencher or two for the urgers to exculpate their lazy, gormless spewings.

  5. Oh dear. ABC panel ramping up LNP troubles “ Tony gets unleashed”, ” Mal is done “, “Kingmaker Dutton in trouble in his seat”. The smell of napalm is hovering.

  6. So much for the MSM’s predictions of the government picking up seats, breaking a 100 year-old (or near enough) record of the government picking up a seat/s in a by-election. You have to wonder what desperate pro-Coalition prediction they will come up with next.

  7. You guys/gals will love this from Bolt
    “For months the media story was that Labor leader Bill Shorten could be destroyed by today’s byelections.

    But with almost everything running for the Turnbull Government – media coverage, the Emma Husic scandal, Anthony Albanese needling Shorten, One Nation preferences switching to the Liberals in Longman – Labor has won Longman easily and will probably win Braddon, too, if these trends hold.

    So now we should talk about the real leadership dud: Malcolm Turnbull.How could this have gone so badly? Are the Liberals really sure that Turnbull can now lead them to victory?”

  8. Supposedly Shorten isn’t popular. Well Trumble is as popular as cancer in Qld. And guess where all the seats Labor needs to win are.

    Oh and lastly for any media dickheads lurking…

    One day a Liberal Leader might just gain more than they lose by cuddling up to One Nation.

    But that Liberal Leader is not Brian Trumble.

  9. You wouldn’t have have to be a genius to pick up the desperation in Trumble’s strategy in the last week of the campaign, unless you were a member of the CPG, in which case you would have missed or ignored it entirely.

    We should be seeing the consequences of that desperation shortly.

  10. This result will have to put pressure on Turnbull. But, the icing on the cake is that it brings the threat to Dutton into focus, which may well encourage a certain amount of kaos in the Libs as people start to revise just who the fwark is a potential replacement for Turnbull.

    A lot of easy column inches for the press in this if they can just decide to not mollycodle Turnbull for a while.

    Thought Ed Husic showed up well tonight.

  11. [Another Liberal MP has texted reflections on the byelection results tonight, which he describes as “a reality check”.

    “People were starting to get confident about the next election,” he said.

    Consider tonight – especially the outcome in Longman – as a confidence-buster.]

    Interesting how frank Libs are in their text messages to “journos” rather than their “analysis” on TV…

  12. @TeamAbbott a ginger group who work round the clock promoting The Lying Friar tweet this..

    The ludicrous media image of Malcolm Turnbull as “Mr Popular” is now in tatters. He was all over Longman, Braddon, & Mayo, yet @LiberalAus lost big. Turnbull is an aloof, insipid, ineffectual communicator, and the Coalition is toast as long as he remains leader. #BringBackAbbott

  13. I agree AB @9:47, opinion polling is reflecting people’s disengagement with politics.who they actually vote for is a different matter.

  14. Notes on the minor parties:
    *Obviously a great result for Sharkie, but she’s basically an independent at this point.
    *Generally a pretty indifferent night for the Greens, although I haven’t heard that they really tried in any of these. Braddon not great but considering Garland could have been worse (it is at least above their abysmal result at the state election); Longman meh; Mayo actually quite good in that they got a positive swing even with Sharkiemania and outpolled Labor; Perth and especially Fremantle genuinely quite garbage results, and pretty gutless of them not to at least try.
    *The Lib Dems appear to function as a bit of a last resort for homeless Liberal voters. The Fremantle result is good but that was the only seat without an alternative “liberal” candidate (Perth had two indies calling themselves “independent liberals”, one of whom, Paul Collins, did quite well).
    *It’s a pity for Craig Garland that this and the state election didn’t come in another order – he’d be in with a shot for a Braddon seat in a Tas state election, but I suspect he will struggle to maintain momentum all the way to 2022. Maybe there’s a local council he could go for?
    *Pretty much as expected for One Nation. Gutless of them to only run in one seat.
    *Move over CEC, step forward Australian People’s Party! This new, right-wing outfit ran in all five seats and managed to come last in every single one! Only in Fremantle are they currently polling above 1%. Truly an outstanding achievement in electoral mediocrity.

  15. Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    1h1 hour ago
    A senior Labor source just said to me: “There’s a lot of shit to be eaten tonight by Turnbull and the LNP and we are handing out the forks”.

  16. @boomy1

    {blockquote}{i}‘My Brother Jack’
    I’ve read that , cool for reminding me.

    {/i}{/blockquote}

    Thanks for reminding me of this book. I was at school with the son of the writer when it was published. I have a strange reluctance to read anything written by people I know. It sort of feels like peering in their bathroom window.

  17. It’s a test of the parties, but it’s really about the people of Longman deciding whether they want to vote for Bill Shorten and his higher taxes, fewer jobs, lower wages and less economic growth,” Turnbull said.

    “The … contest is between me and Bill Shorten as the prime minister and the opposition leader.”

    test of the parties – Labor 4 – Filth 0
    people of Longman deciding whether they want to vote for Bill Shorten – not a problem
    and his higher taxes – seem ok with it if it’s fair and pays for good services
    fewer jobs, lower wages and less economic growth – people of Longman call bullshit
    contest is between me and Bill Shorten as the prime minister and the opposition leader – Cancer would beat you in a head to head in Longman Brian.

  18. A senior Labor source just said to me: “There’s a lot of shit to be eaten tonight by Turnbull and the LNP and we are handing out the forks”.

    Gold.

  19. Gary Hardgrave on SkyFoxNews narrowing down the cause of the debacle..

    Very evident Malcolm Turnbull has no campaign skills. If the result in Longman is repeated at looming Federal General Election, LNP will lose 9-10 seats in Qld alone. A disastrous result, a monumental disaster and the blame rests with PM. Who is going to tell him? @SkyNewsAust

  20. Ed Husic was funny at times, but in his struggle to contain his delight he did drone on with some partisan spin a bit. Zimmerman did an admirable job shifting the spin and BS to fit the ever worsening news. I liked him setting 4% swing as bench mark before kinda dropping it when Longman got to 4.2%.
    Shorten was strong and didn’t overplay his hand introducing Susan Lamb. Looking forward to seeing Dutton and Abbott go to war with Turnbull and look for eleven on the dog-whistle dial.
    Missing the resident trolls about now despite their promises to be here gloating tonight.

  21. So really, the only results that may have any significance TPP / Next Govt polling numbers wise being Longman and Braddon, the 10% drop in Lib primary in Longman has to be a disaster for the Libs. Its a much larger movement than anyone predicted isn’t it?? And well overshadows the Braddon result.

    Longman is the kind of result would love to see reflected nationally in the next election, but i reckon that the Libs will now want to put that off as long as possible, and hope that the ALP dont manage, somehow, to refer any Lib MP’s with S44 “questions” outstanding to the HC.

    Be interesting to see Turnbull comments tomorrow. 🙂 He’ll have to come out from under his rock and have a say about it. Will he get any lurvvve from the press??

  22. I read it years ago when I did most of my WW2 reading. Green Armor by Osmar White was another. What happenened was just awful. To this day no one really knows.

  23. Lots of comments, after watching the by election coverage on the ABC.

    1) We fuckin won!!!! No matter what Trent Zimmerman says.
    2) There is a *LOT* of hope for the ABC. They do not be to be flushed down the sink, they are actually doing a pretty good job, albeit under difficult circumstances.
    3) The result in Longman bodes well for Labor getting over the line at the next election.
    4) Despite the Kill Bill rhetoric of the MSM Ove the gods know how long, many people giving small donations to Labor (~$5), plus many of us being willing to get out and know on doors and do phone banking actually beats the big money and the overarching narrative of the MSM.
    5) Aux armes, citoyens, …

  24. I think a basic mistake that Turnbull and his gung ho gang of KPMG droogs, like Alan Tudge, and Banking wankers, like Kelly O’Dwyer, are making is that the policies they are enacting-refusing to raise Newstart, Centrelink Robodebt, making it harder to get the Disability Pension, encouraging companies to rip off workers, ripping Penalty Rates away, enlarging the Surveillance State of Dutton, screwing the once fearlessly independent Public Service and replacing the Department Secretaries with partisan hacks and IPA stooges, destroying the environment to make a buck for their mates, actually giving almost half a Billion of taxpayer dollars to their mates in the Fossil Fuel industry to oversee quietly the continued destruction of The Great Barrier Reef…

    All this and much, much more, is creating an army of disaffected Australians.

    And they are voting against the Turnbull government.

    And they are joining the Labor Party.

    And they are campaigning against the Turnbull government.

    Be afraid, Malcolm Turnbull. Be very afraid. We are the Labor Party and we are coming to get you!

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