Super Saturday live

Live coverage of the counting for the Super Saturday by-elections (especially Braddon and Longman).

9.31pm. So much for the last entry. Patrick Gorman’s projected two-party vote is now 61.6%.

9.18pm. It’s only based on 1000 votes from Leederville and Northbridge, and suburbs further out might tell a different story, but the first two-party results in Perth suggest Patrick Gorman is headed for a fairly modest winning over the Greens. Conversely, Josh Wilson is outpolling the Greens two to one in Fremantle.

9.00pm. The Devonport PPVC result is also nothing special for the Liberals, so the door has closed on them in Braddon now.

8.55pm. First figures from Perth don’t bear out ReachTEL’s indication of a strong Liberal Democrats result, with more of the homeless Liberal vote going to independent Paul Collins.

8.53pm. Labor think they have Braddon in the bag, and the Burnie PPVC result that has just come through might explain why: the Liberals have copped an 8.7% hit on the primary vote there. Only Devonport and Queenstown PPVCs, plus postals, yet to come.

8.20pm. Labor still tracking for a winning margin approaching 5% in Longman.

8.13pm. The first PPVC in from Braddon is Ulvertstone, which has only 513 votes. It’s indeed a bit better for the Liberals than polling day votes, with their primary vote down by 2.1%, compared with 6.6% overall – although that’s still less than what they need.

8.10pm. So there has been no swing at all out of the polling day booths in Braddon, which have produced around 47,000 votes. That means the Liberals need to conjure a swing of around 7.5% out of probably 10,000 pre-polls and 7000 postals. Which doesn’t seem terribly likely.

8.02pm. Only the PPVCs to come from Braddon now. Polls have closed in Perth and Fremantle.

7.52pm. The projected Labor margin in Braddon is down to 2.0%. Two more polling day booths to report in Braddon, plus the four pre-poll voting centres, which could yet disgorge many thousands of votes. However, it seems to be agreed that it’s time to pull the plug on the LNP in Longman, and Georgina Downer is conceding defeat in Mayo.

7.40pm. A bit of dispute on the ABC as to whether the LNP is getting 70% or 60% of One Nation preferences in Longman. They will need for it to be very high indeed, and for something highly dramatic to happen in the pre-poll voting centres.

7.38pm. A very quick count in Braddon, where the momentum against Labor is levelling off. The AEC now projects a 2.6% Labor margin, but the potential for a different dynamic from the pre-poll voting centres means a measure of caution is still advised.

7.25pm. I’ve now got primary vote swings of 8.6% against Labor and 6.7% against Liberal in Braddon, with Craig Garland now barely into double figures. Labor’s projected two-party is continuing its slow decline, now at 2.2%. Given the trend as larger booths come in, and the unknown factor of the large pre-poll voting centres that will come in later in the evening, I wouldn’t be ready to call this.

7.24pm. We’ve now gone from around 7000 to around 14,000 primary votes counted in Longman, and the earlier trend is continuing: Labor holding steady, Liberal down around 14%, One Nation on around 15%. So looking like a surprisingly solid Labor win. No surprises in Mayo.

7.18pm. The situation is still a little elusive in Braddon: two-party projections point to a Labor win, but the primary count is well ahead of it, and the Labor primary vote there is beginning to sag. Bit of a lull in Longman counting, but the early indications are extremely strong for Labor.

7.12pm. Picture beginning to change in Braddon as larger centres do less well for Craig Garland. The ABC now has the Labor swing at 2.7%, which is down from over 4% earlier. The AEC computer is calling it for Labor, but given that trend, this should be treated with caution at the moment.

7.10pm. Count progressing a little quick than I’d figure in Longman, and here too Labor are doing quite a bit better than expected, holding their own on the primary vote while One Nation gouges double figures out of the LNP.

7.02pm. There are some reasonably serious primary vote numbers in now from Braddon, and that earlier picture is still holding: Craig Garland is on 16.3%, and Liberal are down more than Labor. The first two-party results suggest this is converting into a two-party swing to Labor.

6.50pm. Still only 1591 votes counted, but the early dynamic in Braddon is that Craig Garland is doing very strongly, coming in at the high teens, and he’s gouging the Liberals twice as heavily as Labor. If this kept up, Labor would win pretty handily on preferences from 35% of the primary vote.

6.40pm. The first two small booths in from Braddon are Moorleah (183 votes), where Craig Garland has a fairly spectacular 26.8%, and Waratah (139 votes), where he has a rather more modest 10.8%. For the time being though, he’s gouging double figures out of both major parties’ primary votes.

6pm. Polls have closed in Braddon and Longman, and will do so in half an hour in Mayo, and two hours in Perth and Adelaide. Results for small booths in Braddon should start coming in very shortly, but it will have to wait an hour or so for anything meaningful from Longman. For my own benefit more than anything, I have mocked up summarised booth results for Braddon and Longman which will, when there’s actual data to plug into them, will show booth-level primary vote totals, percentages and swings for the Labor, Liberal(-National), Greens, One Nation and Craig Garland (both the latter two are identified, wrongly, as “IND”). Other than that, the AEC publishes its own perfectly good booth-matched projected results (though not nearly enough besides), which can naturally be found at the official results page.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

693 comments on “Super Saturday live”

  1. Fiona Scott talking up the 0.13% swing to the LNP on SkyNews. Marked and Hawker rolling around the floor laughing.

    LNP might pick up Braddon at the next election. Unlikely, but possible. Scott herself may even pick up Lindsay, given Husar’s travails. But Brian is toast in the rest of the country. Dixon, Pietre, Forde, Flynn and Capricornia in Queensland. Gilmore, Banks and Robertson in NSW. Western Australia wipeout. …

  2. [Fiona Scott talking up the 0.13% swing to the LNP on SkyNews. Marked and Hawker rolling around the floor laughing.]

    Is that the “hot” ex-MP from Lindsay who talked about Sydney’s M4 being gridlocked with bumper-to-bumper burka traffic?!

    Sky News really is a warehouse for out of work Libs.

  3. Andrew_Earlwood @ #452 Saturday, July 28th, 2018 – 9:18 pm

    Fiona Scott talking up the 0.13% swing to the LNP on SkyNews. Marked and Hawker rolling around the floor laughing.

    LNP might pick up Braddon at the next election. Unlikely, but possible. Scott herself may even pick up Lindsay, given Husar’s travails. But Brian is toast in the rest of the country. Dixon, Pietre, Forde, Flynn and Capricornia in Queensland. Gilmore, Banks and Robertson in NSW. Western Australia wipeout. …

    Dickson? Petrie?

  4. mundo @ #1193 Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 – 5:30 pm

    Anyone here who thinks Saturday isn’t going to be a disaster for Labor just doesn’t have a clue, is on drugs or has coke bottle rose coloured glasses on.
    It isn’t a crime to accept that Labor is being royally shafted by the media and by decades old perceptions which always make it harder for the ALP to cut through.

    Because it needed to be repeated.

    😀

  5. [mundo @ #1193 Tuesday, July 24th, 2018 – 5:30 pm

    Anyone here who thinks Saturday isn’t going to be a disaster for Labor just doesn’t have a clue, is on drugs or has coke bottle rose coloured glasses on.
    It isn’t a crime to accept that Labor is being royally shafted by the media and by decades old perceptions which always make it harder for the ALP to cut through.]

    LOL – who the hell is “mundo”!?

  6. Poor old Trev has lost 2 of his last 3 elections.

    Surely they could’ve found a less shop-worn candidate? Same in Braddon with Whiteley.

  7. Downer’s coming back for more after a 15% shellacking?
    The scoreboard will tell you how much you lost by but only your arse can tell you how bad the whipping was.

  8. “ABC just confirms Shorten’s leadership is safe.”
    Only for the next 48 hours after which the next ‘Test of Leadership” will be set by the ‘presstitute community’

  9. Surely the Countess is entitled to invoke the Liberal Party Grandee clause, which says that if you’re too hopeless to win a marginal seat they give you a safe one?

  10. ‘Labor are having to spend a lot of money to shore up Bill Shorten’s leadership’.
    That will happen when you only contest 3 elections out of 5.

    The AFR is particularly generous, the result lifts pressure on Shorten’s leadership.

  11. I am sure the LNP and press gallery mates will take note of the results in the by elections and ask the serious question “How did the voters get it so wrong?” Need to double down on KillBill!!

  12. Apparently Whitely won’t concede defeat yet (Fairfax live updates at 9:21).

    “Liberal Brett Whiteley doesn’t concede defeat in Braddon
    The Liberal candidate in Braddon, Brett Whiteley, has not conceded defeat.
    “This is contest like climbing Mount Everest without any oxygen,” he said.
    “We’re close, but maybe not close enough.”
    He says we’ll need to wait and see the final count.”

  13. ‘LOL – who the hell is “mundo”!?’

    Mundo is one relieved little turd!!!
    I can’t help it.
    I get get the wombles.

    Yeah baby!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Can’t wait to see Malturd spinning it……..

  14. Oh and there is this
    Finance Minister Mathias Cormann had previously declared the byelections a referendum on company tax cuts.

    Also from Coorey’s article in the AFR:

    He also is a bit more generous (my emphasis)
    In a result that should erase pressure on Bill Shorten’s leadership…

  15. Tim Ayres‏

    @ayrestim
    Lessons tonight for the Libs:
    1. Keep going with company tax cuts, they are really popular;
    2. Malcolm Turnbull is the people’s PM;
    3. The IPA is a reliable source of candidates and ideas – privatising the ABC goes really well out there
    4. Everything is fine – don’t worry.

  16. William would SNIP me if I said exactly what I thought of the media. I said back in May when that first Reachtel came out saying Labor would lose Braddon that none of these seats would change hands. That seriously should not have been even a slightly remarkable statement. But hey media knows best eh…

    Barrie Cassidy

    Verified account

    @barriecassidy

    The media (yes that’s me too) spent 90pc of its pre poll analysis predicated on labor losing at least one seat. What a waste of your time.

    The shittest thing is that Barry will forget all about that he has spent 90% of the time wasting everyone else’s on bullshit. And he is one of very very few who will even notice their part in the fraudulence.

    Unemployment is too good for the lot of them.

  17. [William would SNIP me if I said exactly what I thought of the media. I said back in May when that first Reachtel came out saying Labor would lose Braddon that none of these seats would change hands. That seriously should not have been even a slightly remarkable statement. But hey media knows best eh…]

    They really are not equipped to do their jobs.

    Rather than just reporting, they think their job is to predict and set tests.

    Well, their predictions are sh*t.

  18. Is it possible that voter disenchantment with politicians is masking the govt’s troubles in the polls. There is a lot of inertia until voters are forced to make a decision, then they say: nope, had enough of this mob.

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