Legalise Vaping Australia has published results of ReachTEL polling from the neglected seats of Perth and Fremantle, which turn up no surprises so far as their finding that both seats will be easily retained by Labor is concerned. However, the results are notably weak for the Greens, who record 18.6% in Perth and 17.0% in Fremantle after exclusion of the undecided (8.7% and 6.1% respectively). In particular, the Greens are placed slightly behind the Liberal Democrats in Fremantle, who clearly stand to harvest votes from homeless Liberal supporters.
On to more important matters, namely the Longman and Braddon by-elections, and some historical context for them. Much is being made of the fact that the only time a government party has gained a seat from the opposition at a by-election was in the fairly unusual circumstance of Kalgoorlie in 1920, after Labor member Hugh Mahon was expelled from parliament for seditiously describing the British Empire as a “bloody and accursed despotism”, apropos its recent conduct in Ireland. However, by-elections in highly marginal opposition-held seats have been a far from common occurrence, particularly in recent times. The last time there was a by-election in an opposition-held seat with a margin of 5% or less was in November 1983, early in the life of the Hawke government, when the Liberals retained the Brisbane seat of Moreton with a slight swing in their favour.
The histogram below shows the spread of swings for or against the government at the 67 by-elections that produced a Labor-versus-Coalition two-party result since 1949 (sourced from this Parliamentary Library paper). Thirteen recorded swings to the government, of which eight occurred in opposition-held seats, but in no case were they sufficient to gain them the seat. Ten of the pro-government swings were bigger than Labor’s 0.8% margin in Longman, and five were bigger than the 2.2% margin in Braddon.
The mean result, indicated by the peak of the distribution curve, is a 4.0% swing against the government. However, the dispersal is great enough to suggest 0.8% pro-government swings occur 20.7% of the time, and 2.2% swings occur 14.5% of the time. On this basis, the chance of one or the other being lost by an opposition that faced both simultaneously would be 32.2% (assuming the two results were independent of each other). This is no doubt inflated by two outlier results: Australian Capital Territory in 1970 (13.8%) and McPherson in 1981 (16.2%). With these removed, the likelihood of a 0.8% swing to the government is 13.5%; the likelihood of a 2.2% swing is 8.2%; and one or the other is 20.6%.
“and some historic context for potential Labor defeats in Longman and/or Braddon”…
…. and what’s the historic context for potential Labor wins in Longman and Braddon?
In a historically context. Labor should win them without breaking to much of a sweat.
I am enjoying this far to much. But but but we have been ahead in all the polls, why why why wont they vote for us we are the Labor party we are the good guys 🙁
Steelydan @ #2 Friday, July 27th, 2018 – 7:38 am
Because haters gonna hate.
I doubt that any previous by-elections with margins as close as Longman & Braddon have been held with such a one-sided attempt by the media to portray the result in terms of the negative affect for Shorten whilst hardly mentioning any negative for Turnbull. Add to that the filthy tactics of One Nation in Longman and one realises why the result is in so much doubt.
@ausdavo
The amount of hostility to the Federal Labor party in the media (especially in News Limited outlets), I believe is making some in the Labor wonder if they can win an election with kind of hostility from the media.
However this media (newspapers and free to air television) is being eclipsed by other forms of media, such as for example; social media. We have come to a point where if a political movement can harness social media, then they can sideline the traditional media. Look at the rise of Jeremy Corbyn in Britain, his success in becoming Labour leader was due to harnessing of the power of social media by the campaigners for his leadership campaign.
“one-sided attempt by the media to portray the result in terms of the negative affect for Shorten whilst hardly mentioning any negative for Turnbull”…
Spot on, ausdavo, it’s mere desperate pro-Liberal propaganda. For instance, Mayo is an eminently conservative seat. Georgina Downer (a member of the Liberal “aristocracy” and a member of IPA) is going to be trashed big time there (according to the opinion polls)…. and yet, it looks like such result will be completely inconsequential for the Libs and for Turnbull in particular….
If the ALP is returned in all their seats in contention, the reaction of the manipulative media under the control of Liberal stooges will be either:
a) Nothing happened, move on, move on….
b) But, but, the primary vote for the ALP shrunk by a 0.whatever percent…. Shorten is in danger, Albo is ready with the knife….
…. I can’t wait to see the reaction of the media to the coming Shorten and ALP Federal Government, it’s gonna be far more hysterical than during the Rudd-Gillard Governments, I can see that already.
Itt isn’t only opinion polls in Mayo. I have not seen or heard a word of the Liberal campagn in Mayo since Wednesday. Silence. Giving. Up.
“However this media (newspapers and free to air television) is being eclipsed by other forms of media”….
Yes, I think that we are getting there very fast, Tristo, although the traditional MSM do still play a role, unfortunately, and that’s why it’s imperative to save the ABC/SBS from the undemocratic attack of the Coalition.
What’s incredibly interesting is that the Liberal Party, with all the support they get from millionaires, have been unable to establish a solid footing on the internet. See the demise of their pathetic website “The Fair Go”. Their only activists on the internet (see the very active website of The Guardian) look more like paid employees of the Liberal party or of some Liberal party-associated think yank (IPA and perhaps others), than spontaneous supporters.
Bit sad for the RWNutjobbies that Albo has come out and said :
“Well I don’t know how many times I can say it. Here it is, I’ll say it really slowly – No. There you go. There you go in a word, it’s not hard,” Mr Albanese said.”
As to challenging Shorten. 🙂
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/i-won-t-challenge-bill-shorten-says-anthony-albanese-20180726-p4zts4.html
Much wind just fell from the sails of their absurd little campaign. 🙂
Seems likely to me that ALP wont win all of the bye elections. Particularly Braddon. Longman win would be good though. Its pretty transparent that Abbott’s rather disgusting foray into immigration is aimed at PHON voters there.
Still, i suspect that the big disappointment for the Libs and their idiot supporters will be that whatever the results the ALP will simply move on and keep gearing up with policy rather than theater for the next election.
Come Sunday our great LNP would have won the seats of Longman Braddon and will call an election for September and will win it by a landslide and bill shorten will be finished as labor leader….
Wayne most liberal supporters have an IQ below 100, that’s why they are unable to see why they are voting against their best interests!.
Wayne, please make sure you put your “predictions” on edible paper so you can eat them after the general election.
ausdavo: “I doubt that any previous by-elections with margins as close as Longman & Braddon have been held with such a one-sided attempt by the media to portray the result in terms of the negative affect for Shorten whilst hardly mentioning any negative for Turnbull.”
What is the media supposed to do? All the seats in the by-elections are Labor seats. Given that there is no polling available suggesting a big swing to Labor in any of the three seriously contested seats, the Libs are currently in a no lose situation. If Labor holds both Longman and Braddon, then there’s no news. If the Libs win one – the first seat won in a by-election by a government in over 100 years – then it has to be bad news for Labor.
The only way it could be bad news for the Government is if there was a big swing to Labor in either Braddon or Longman: if that happens, you can be certain that there will be negative headlines for the Libs and we’ll see Abbott strutting about the place again. But there’s nothing to suggest that this outcome is at all likely.
If the Libs had contested Perth or Freo, and there had been a big swing to Labor (which I think was always more likely than in Braddon or Longman), then that would have been somewhat bad news for the Libs. But they have sensibly avoided this situation.
Yes, the Murdoch media is biased against Labor, but (with occasional exceptions such as Hawke in 1983 and Rudd in 2006-07) that’s been mostly the case for the best part of 50 years now. The other media are just doing their jobs IMO.
With the polls tightening just a smidgeon, Shorten Labor has become a bit vulnerable at the moment. It might not seem fair to you and many on here, but politics is like that sometimes. To take a bit of poetic licence with the immoral words of the late Yogi Berra “if the people don’t want to vote for Labor, there’s nothing you can do to stop them.”
I thought so too, but just got another blast of mail from Libs as well as a ‘letter’ from Brokenshire claiming to be an ‘independent’ politician and saying to not trust Sharkie as she votes with Shorten.
Independent? The chap was a Liberal politician (then Family First, then Conservatives) and now back with the Liberal Party.
Votes with Shorten? Libs say she votes with Labor 58% of the time. Sharkie counter claims that she votes slightly more with the Coalition. Even if 58% is true that seems pretty reasonable for a centrist candidate.
These turkeys hold the electorate in contempt and feel no shame about lying their little hearts out.
Simon Katich: “These turkeys hold the electorate in contempt and feel no shame about lying their little hearts out.”
That’s a fairly contemptible campaign tactic. But Labor’s claims about the Caboolture Hospital have been pushing pretty hard at the envelope as well.
That’s politics. They do it because they can.
Simon, this is not the first time that Brokenshire has played the “concerned independent” when astroturfing for the Libs. I remember him doing the same during the 2014 Fisher state by-election. Of course, it backfired big time because the intended target was the independent candidate whom they thought was the biggest threat to the Libs and it softened his vote enough to bring Labor up into the 2CP count and make Nat Cook win the seat by a handful of votes.
Sure, the indie would’ve wiped the floor with the Lib if he had made the 2CP but there was a chance he could’ve backed the Libs in toppling the government or at least helped them knock down legislation in the lower house. Instead, Labor got a majority government out of it. Massive own-goal if I ever saw one.
I have never liked the excuse that because they get away with it they keep doing it. A healthy democracy requires effort from all sides; People, Media, Political Parties and individual politicians. For me, the 2 party system (and the party rules, donations and how they fund campaigns) is broke and needs an overhaul. Keeping MPs in their electorates and away from Canberra and less controlled by their parties would also help.
But I like your post previous. Yes, the ALP (members and party) will need to rethink and do some introspection if they lose both Longman and Braddon. Simply whinging about the media wont cut it.
Great data, WB….thanks.
I’m sticking with my prediction that the Libs will do well enough in Longman and Braddon that they’ll rush to a general election and lose. they are ignoring that labor was lucky to win both of these seats on preferences at the last election, but there are many other seats likely to fall at a general election.
I’m amazed abbott hasn’t tried to dent Turnbull in the by-elections.
the murdoch media beat up over ALP leadership should be a scandal – it is an invented issue designed to hurt labor. A royal commission into media bias and collusion with political parties is needed. the donations of murdoch and reinhardt to the IPA, lib foundations and the lib parties, as well as their media influence needs investigation. They both have money in loss making media outlets that are more about political influence than business/profit. this is a corruption of democracy and a RC is needed. The loss of fairfax (which has been pretty shite for years now) is symptomatic of this far right agenda. I am unsubscribing to the age. The Guardian is a far superior publication anyhow.
Th savagery of ALP supporters on here knows no bounds. I vote ALP, have never voted for the Coalition, but I’m clear-eyed enough not to:
1. Question polls when I don’t like the results;
2. Question whether the ABC is biased towards the Government (the ABC!)
3. Claim that the media is driving a pro-Turnbull agenda
4. Claim that Shorten’s unpopularity isn’t going to hurt the chances of the ALP
5. Claim that Shorten is an asset in the general election.
Whether or not Albo stakes a claim in the coming days is a matter for him. The fact of the matter is that Shorten lost the last election, and if he starts losing seats now, particularly against such a catastrophically inept Government, he is cooked.
I’m a betting man. My money is on Braddon and Longman to go, a GE to be called in short order, and for the 2PP in that election to be (once again) extremely close, unless Shorten vacates.
Obviously the NewsCorp media,especially the Courier Mail,have been going out full blast in supporting the LNP candidate in Longman. Now, as we read that Fairfax has been brought by a consortium which includes NewsCorp, one has to be completely clueless,ignorant or a Right Wing supporter not to see the implications for democratic discourse in this country.
As for the Age, one wonders what market the new owners will aim for in Victoria, particularly Melbourne. The Right already has its standard-bearer in the the Herald-Sun rag ( disparagingly called ” The Hun”). It’s rusted-ons won’t be switching over to The Age and the more discerning readers of The Age won’t want a bar of another paper with NewsCorp politics embedded in it.
Hopefully, The Age will maintain a more centrist tone in order to hold readership.
We can only hope The Guardian will continue to give readers a balanced view of politics in our country. God knows, democracy in Australia needs all the help it can get.
A very good read on previous by elections and swings to governments.
Looks like you could say a one in five chance LNP could win either of both.
Stats and probability is like politics, you can spin the result whcih ever way you want and find the evidence to back up your views with historic large swings to/ away and then back again at the next election.
Disappointing result will be small swings either way as will be a frenzy of what to read into it.
Large swings either way would be hard to argue against.
Was it Turbulls vicious personal attack on Garland what swung it against the Libs or Shortens failure to cut through that swung against labor.
Does the ON vote in Longman represent a spent force or just a candidate selection error, was Turnbull wrong to support a bloke who allegedly dodges his debts.
Or does the ON vote show a hidden anger against labor and the major parties.
Be interesting to see the youth vote especially following the equality vote and increased enrollment.
sustainable future: “the murdoch media beat up over ALP leadership should be a scandal – it is an invented issue designed to hurt labor. ”
It’s all been invented by the media: what everyone always says about leadership challenges until they turn out to be real.
I’m happy to be corrected if I’m wrong, but I can’t remember an alleged leadership challenge story that was completely made up by the media. Even the stories about Peter Costello challenging Howard that never came to anything appeared to have started with a bit of testing of the winds by some of his supporters or, as I recall it in one case, a fellow Minister who was disgruntled with Howard.
A completely fabricated story about a leadership challenge is of course possible. However, there is (just) still enough competition within the Press Gallery to mean that a journalist running with a story that was too obviously fabricated would be strongly criticised by some of their peers.
The usual trick is for someone fairly distant from the potential challenger to undertake some off-the-record backgrounding of a couple of friendly journos. The potential challenger would ensure full deniability. Their instructions to the person working on their behalf would be of a “will no one rid me of this turbulent priest?” type.
It’s gone on for decades. And some journos can come close to being active collaborators in the conspiracy: most notoriously IMO in the unseating of Gorton in 1971 and Gillard in 2013.
So, I suspect there’s something in the “Kill Bill” stuff: at the very least, somebody of some importance in Labor circles has done a little bit of kite-flying with a few journos. Steadfast denials from sundry senior party figures will never disprove it completely. Even if the denials are quite genuine, they can’t 100% rule out the possibility of a future, sudden change of mind – “for the good of the party” – on the part of those making them. Shorten would have gained a personal understanding of this possibility from the heady days of 2013.
As I have posted before, if Labor wins Longman and Braddon, and the 2pp for Labor stays above 49 per cent, I reckon it will all go away and Shorten will carry on until the next election. Obviously the uncertainties about the procedures for removing him will help him, but if enough Caucus members feel he needs to go, then they’ll find a way.
And, as I’ve posted before, I think they’d be silly to do so. But that hasn’t stopped them in the past.
I claim both of those. The ALP is up against a political party that spends a great deal of time and money on power consolidation where everything is contested – even Peppa Pig and Sesame St FFS. This isnt new, this shouldnt be a surprise. This is politics in a binary system.
I remember cringing when McKew won Bennelong and said wtte ‘I want to sink my teeth into policy formation’. Yeah. Great. Abbott comes out boxing and McKew is dotting i’s on a policy about child care. What is policy without power?
Sometimes it reminds me of Rimmer….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WgUktfdDy4
ABC not biased?
Perhaps they’re just regurgitating what they’re fed.
The mid-day announce on 24 went through the whole set of cliches including “This will be a test for Shorten”. Sounded like a pr statement from the Libs. There was no attempt for balance.
This is cheery news!
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/malcolm-turnbull-berated-by-voters-in-byelection-pub-visit-20180727-p4zu0u.html
Socrates@8:40am
Are you posting that the dynasty girl stopped campaigning?
Immava@8:58am
That is what MSM wants Albo to say something, anything.
1.If he keeps silent they will say he is keeping quiet because he waiting for by-elections
2. If he says ‘No’, then they will say he is saying no because all challengers who said challenged and won leadership said ‘No’ earlier.
So ALP cannot win
In the mean time people like steelydan/bots like Wayne will make snide remarks.
Potential challengers also need the media to drive the story when not much is happening. It’s all part of the game. Albo needs one of Braddon/Longman to fall and its on. This needs to happen so that the forces of darkness, ie Shorten and Co can be excised. He can then go work for the new Nine outfit or perhaps Dominos or 7eleven where they could no doubt use his expertise.
Mehar baba@1:03pm
You may not have read my earlier posts on Shorten
Under Shorten’s leadership, ALP won 36 newspolls against MT and 33 against Abbott and numerous other fairfax and essential polls.
Having said that ALP lost 2016 federal election after winning 14 seats or LNP won by 1 seat.
Having said that Shorten lost each and every preferred PM opinion poll against MT and he never crossed 37 % on that polling.
So it is in the interest of LNP to keep Shorten as LOTO because he is keeping them in game. Otherwise they should be trailing in polls by 55-45.
LNP are so obessesed about removing Shorten, they created a government organisation to go after him. They are trying to get him the Al Capone way. Why?
Shorten married a blue-blooded Liberal party girl and divorced her in acrimonious circumstances.
LNP’s and Murdoch press relationship with Shorten turned sour after that. I can give lots of examples for that.
Oz headline this afternoon (article paywalled)
“New blow for Downer in Mayo
2:28PMLUKE GRIFFITHS
New poll puts Georgina Downer well behind Centre Alliance candidate Rebekha Sharkie in once-blue ribbon Liberal seat.”
One might legitimately ask why Malcolm wasn’t in Mayo today to bolster the chances of the Liberal candidate.
libbie no
nath yes
Latest odds on Mayo:
Rebekhah Sharkie 1.06
Georgina Downer 8.00
Channel 10 news making a lot out of Shorten not campaigning today in Braddon or Longman……….maybe he was just having the day off, it doesn’t mean Labor was keeping him out of the limelight, as their reporter was alleging
Reachtel poll of Mayo:
Rebekkhah Sharkie with a 2 party preferred lead of 18 points over Georgina Downer
Sharkie 59
Downer 41
Bill was looking after his daughter.
Apparently Mr Turnbull was missing me today. After nearly three months on the campaign trail in every by-election seat, I decided to be a dad first on school pick-up duties for my youngest daughter and her best friend. See you on the polling booths tomorrow!
Shorten taking a day off from politics. haha.
Typical of the MSM, to bash Shorten for being a father.
“Shorten lost the last election, and if he starts losing seats now, particularly against such a catastrophically inept Government, he is cooked.”
Nah…the whole Kill Bill meme will continue, and the Lib national polling will stay in the toilet where it has been for months.
Will be glad when some of the silliness associated with these bye elections is over. We can get back to the normal of rapidly rolling Lib fwarkups. 🙂
“Mr Turnbull also drew attention to Mr Shorten’s absence, saying “Bill’s in hiding today”,”
When was the last time you appeared in Mayo Malcolm??
“I’m a betting man. My money is on Braddon and Longman to go”… No, you are not a betting man, you are just a little Liberal propagandist.
Ladbrokes, Sportsbet, Crownbet and William Hill all give the ALP as winner in Braddon.
For Longman, Ladbrokes, Crownbet and William Hill give the LNP ahead, but Sportsbet gives the ALP ahead, hence, as usual for a Queensland seat, let alone a very marginal one, there is uncertainty.
Now, back to your cave….
According to one report Hugh Mahon’s words:
“The worst rule of the damnable Czars was never more infamous. The sobs of the widow on the coffin will one day shake the foundations of this bloody and accursed Empire.”
who was the widow?
I have to make a note about the electoral performance of Bill Shorten, Labor in 2016 gained 14 seats. If Victoria had swung as much as NSW and Queensland did at the last federal election. Labor would have retained Chisholm, won Corangamite, Latrobe and Dunkley. That would have had Labor won 73 seats (up 17 from 2013) and a good chance of forming a minority government. Since they would need just an extra MP, because they would very likely get the support of Adam Bandt and Andrew Wilkie. Also Malcolm Turnbull was still then a relatively new Prime Minister.
My predictions are usually way off the mark but I’ll make a couple about tomorrow ayway:
Sharkie to win Mayo but by a much smaller margin than people are projecting at the moment.
Labor to hold Braddon and Longman with a modest swing towards them (3%?).
Single electorate polls are notoriously unreliable. Better to go on overall movements with some judgement based adjustments. One Nation has got some big problems which must eat away at their vote to some extent. Labor has been polling a few percent better than last election for a long time now.
In Longman, the “medal” issue will have some effect and the changing demographics of the seat will favour Labor – it is becoming more suburban and less rural. Amongst other things this will be corrupting the demographic weightings the pollsters are using.
Don’t know too much about Braddon, but history indicates that having a Liberal government at state level will help Labor a bit.
It’s unlikely Bill Shorten’s “unpopularity” will have a significant effect. From what I remember about the research done on relationship of leader popularity and 2PP, the only thing that has much effect is a very popular PM who can pull his/her party up a bit. Even Turnbull is not “very” popular.
what was that little byelection with keneally?
@ajm
In Braddon the Independent candidate Craig Garland is expected to do reasonably well and his how to vote cards preference Labor ahead of the Liberals.
Personally I am predicting now both seats are going to be a toss-up. If the Liberals win one or both, it will be by a small margin. Longman is more likely to be won by the Liberal National Party than the Liberals winning Braddon.
I think you will be close aim. Just don’t see the government picking up seats when all the main polling has shown they have lost support since the election.
But the media loves creating a story, or two.
Turnbull with his usual cowboy alpha male stance when confronted by locals today about penalty rates
I am so aprehensive about tomorrow I don’t want to make a prediction.