Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

The Coalition narrows what was previously an unusually strong Labor lead from Ipsos, while Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings continue to surge.

The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is a much better result for the Coalition than the last such poll four weeks ago, with Labor’s lead narrowing from 53-47 to 51-49. This is presumably the result from 2016 election preferences: Ipsos also produces a respondent-allocated result, but it usually takes a bit of digging to get hold of it.

The Coalition is up four on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is down one to 34% and the Greens are steady on 12%. Malcolm Turnbull also records strong improvement in his personal ratings, with approval up five to 55% and disapproval down six to 38%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 38% and up one to 54%. Turnbull’s lead as prime minister is out to 57-30, compared with 51-33 last month. Also featured are questions on best party to handle various issue areas, which have the Coalition leading 60-33 on the economy, 56-33 on interest rates and 45-41 on asylum seekers, while Labor leads 48-41 on health, 49-42 on education and 49-35 on the environment.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

See also the post below this one on Super Saturday by-election polling. You may also care to observe the post-redistribution electoral pendulum I posted over the weekend (and perhaps even to give the tip jar at the top of the page a workout, redistribution calculation being rather laborious exercise).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,742 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 55
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  2. poroti @ #96 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 10:49 am

    The Neolibs would have been apoplectic at some of Portugal’s moves. 🙂

    Portugal Dared to Cast Aside Austerity.

    It’s Having a Major Revival.The government is on track to achieve a surplus by 2020, a year ahead of schedule, ending a quarter-century of deficits.

    ……………………The government raised public sector salaries, the minimum wage and pensions and even restored the amount of vacation days to prebailout levels over objections from creditors like Germany and the International Monetary Fund.

    …………………….At a time of mounting uncertainty in Europe, the country has defied critics who insisted on austerity as the answer to the Continent’s economic and financial crisis.

    ……………..when Europe’s debt crisis struck. The economy crumbled, wages were cut, and unemployment doubled. The government in Lisbon had to accept a humiliating international bailout.

    But as the misery deepened, Portugal took a daring stand: In 2015, it cast aside the austerity measures its European creditors had imposed, igniting a virtuous cycle that put its economy back on a path to growth. The country reversed cuts to wages, pensions and social security, and offered incentives to businesses.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/22/business/portugal-economy-austerity.html

    damn socialist extremists !

  3. The current government has laid the groundwork for NBN to be broken up and sold off. But this could end the NBN’s positive disruption of the telecommunications market, which includes lower prices, increased competition, improved access for consumers and more services being offered.

    In a recent paper I outlined four options for the NBN:
    government retains the NBN
    sell NBN as a single entity
    disaggregate NBN technologies and sell them separately
    disaggregate NBN technologies, excluding satellite and fixed wireless, and sell off separately.

    Breaking up the NBN could result in the creation of geographic monopolies, hurting rural and regional consumers especially.

    …
    The NBN has brought about an unprecedented period of positive change in the telecommunications market. But there is more to be done, including a further reduction in the digital divide between urban and regional and remote areas, and upgrading from fibre to the node to fibre to the curb or fibre to the premises.

    https://theconversation.com/what-should-be-done-with-the-nbn-in-the-long-run-99294

  5. My take on The Narrowing is this becomes inevitable whenever our Murdoch dominated MSM goes the full propaganda mongrel, which has obviously been triggered by the potential importance of these multiple by-elections for both leaders. Later on this week, not even a boys-trapped-in-a-cave-rescue event would be able knock off frontpage Shock and Awe attacks on Labor along with gorgeous garlands for noble Mal, aka The Battler’s Benefactor. Given that a small percentage of no-shows might determine the winner of a couple of seats, the Labor Party’s current challenge is analogous to Democractic Party’s in America’s upcoming Midterm election.

    The author of ‘The Art of the Deal’. Tony Schwartz, today warned Democrats to stop “parsing” Trump’s statements because he’s just an unhinged compulsive liar. Accordingly, forget about persuading the 40% of Americans who support Trump no matter what and concentrate all efforts on getting the other 60% out to vote.

    To eschew wasting my time with Trump normalisers among White House “correspondents”, I’ve noticed they’ll always call him “THE President”. These stenographers of propaganda and leaks then appear on MSNBC, CNN etc. and bask in glory for their “scoops”. If an interviewer seeks any analysis, we get variations of “there are more questions than answers”. (Young Mel Gibson, playing an Aussie correspondent in Sukarno’s Jakarta, gets castigated for spouting this hoary nonsense to his editor in Peter Weir’s ‘The Year of Living Dangerously’. David Williamson’s scintillating screenplay is based on Christopher Koch’s widely lauded novel.)

  6. @J341983

    If there are substantial swings towards Labor in both Longman and Braddon, then Malcolm Turnbull’s position is weaken. Tony Abbott will be embolden to continue subverting the government. Hard to say what would happen if Labor retains both and there is little of a swing. The Liberals winning both would be a great outcome for Malcolm Turnbull and be a rebuke to Tony Abbott.

    Tony Abbott is doing this subversion because I believe the Coalition die hard supporters were disgusted generally at his deposing as Prime Minister. Many would like him back as Prime Minister.

  8. lizzie @ #88 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 10:39 am

    Antfarmer
    @antfarmer

    ICYMI. The One Nation candidate for #Longman when interviewed this morn said ‘Bill Shorten is allowing 50K immigrants into Bribie Island’. When pressed, he said it was ‘hypothetical’. People vote for this race baiting crap? FFS. #rnbreakfast

    I doubt the ABC RN audience will be particularly influenced by the ravings o. f the One .Nnation candidate apart from re-inforcing why they wouldn’t vote for him or his Party.

    The claims that Bill Shorten might allow a hypothetical 50,000 AS land on Bribie .Iisalnd is a bit of a stretch.

    The most interesting thing in that interview was that Pauline Hansen was taking R & R leave in the final week of the campaign that could make or break her Party’s influence in Federal politics. Has she given up?

  9. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, July 23, 2018 at 10:26 am
    Darn @ #71 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 10:21 am

    Salivate all you like Rex. There will be no change of leader this side of the next election, as you yourself have acknowledged.

    The dream of Albo taking over and leading Labor to a crushing win is all in your fevered imagination.

    Yes I don’t think Labor have the mettle to change.

    You call it lack of mettle, I call it good sense. Labor learned the hard way of the transactional costs of switching leaders mid stream and know what would happen if they tried it again now. Unfortunately you prefer to indulge your own little pipe dream rather than try to understand that.

  10. If Portugal continues on its current trajectory of recovery, I expect its government to be overthrown with the aid of the USA!

  11. @Prof. Higgins

    The main difference between the forthcoming Federal Election here and the US mid term elections is that Donald Trump is wildly popular among the Republican base which will ensure a strong turnout by those people. That sort of stuff matters in an electoral system with voluntary voting and low voter turnout as the United States has.

  12. For Sale.

    JU JU STICKS.

    Authentic voodoo items, lovingly crafted from genuine imitation materials.
    Quality wool from the local $2 shop (5 for $10). First class completely synthetic tubes and lifelike feathers.
    These items have the capacity to be equipped with bells and (dog) whistles.

    These items will respond just like the originals – to – incantations, curses, mystic and occult ruminations as well as the normal voodoo chants and spells.

    As can be seen, provision is made for the attachment of facial recognition hardware.

    These items come with the usual KayJay guarantee.
    Items to be available at the usual William howdy do at the Summer Solstice rodeo and nitpick.

    Note:- My bedspread is not part of the kit.

  13. The ascension of Albanese to LOTO would be an unmitigated disaster. Plibersek, imo, is not an option either.

    There’s no turning back. It’s sink or swim with Shorten.

  14. Darn @ #109 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 10:59 am

    Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, July 23, 2018 at 10:26 am
    Darn @ #71 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 10:21 am

    Salivate all you like Rex. There will be no change of leader this side of the next election, as you yourself have acknowledged.

    The dream of Albo taking over and leading Labor to a crushing win is all in your fevered imagination.

    Yes I don’t think Labor have the mettle to change.

    You call it lack of mettle, I call it good sense. Labor learned the hard way of the transactional costs of switching leaders mid stream and know what would happen if they tried it again now. Unfortunately you prefer to indulge your own little pipe dream rather than try to understand that.

    Apples and oranges.

    Rudd was popular. Shorten is not.

  16. Alice Workman tweets..

    Tony Abbott is in Woodford QLD this morning campaigning with the LNP’s Longman candidate Trevor Ruthenberg.

  19. Pegasus @ #113 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 11:03 am

    The ascension of Albanese to LOTO would be an unmitigated disaster. Plibersek, imo, is not an option either.

    There’s no turning back. It’s sink or swim with Shorten.

    I disagree that it would be a disaster, given Shorten is unpopular.

    But I can’t see a change happening.

  20. GG

    Pauline is probably exhausted from all that speechifying. It takes a lot of energy to form sentences.

    Also, herding all her cats into line must be a strain.

  21. Does Labor support the opt-out model for my health record?

    According to federal Labor MP Pat Conroy:

    https://www.smh.com.au/technology/zero-confidence-labor-mp-in-push-for-opt-in-digital-health-records-20180722-p4zsxm.html

    As the fallout continues over the government’s handling of the My Health Record roll-out, a Labor backbencher has become the first to publicly disown the opt-out model both Labor and the Liberal Party support, pushing for a change back to opt-in for the scheme he now says he has “zero confidence” in.

  22. Player One @ #115 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 11:06 am

    Pegasus @ #113 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 11:03 am

    The ascension of Albanese to LOTO would be an unmitigated disaster. Plibersek, imo, is not an option either.

    There’s no turning back. It’s sink or swim with Shorten.

    Could you pass that message on to Rex? Thanks.

    Rex knows it’s true. It’s just that his wet dream is that it might happen and Labor would be a divided force in Federal politics.

  25. @ImranSiddiquie
    13h

    Today @SusanLambALP announced that Labor will build a new Urgent Care Clinic on Bribie. Caboolture Hospital’s Emergency Department is stretched to capacity, and still Malcolm Turnbull is cutting $2.9M from Caboolture Hospital to give $17 Billion to the banks. #auspol #qldpol

  26. poroti @ #96 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 10:49 am

    The Neolibs would have been apoplectic at some of Portugal’s moves. 🙂

    Portugal Dared to Cast Aside Austerity.

    It’s Having a Major Revival.The government is on track to achieve a surplus by 2020, a year ahead of schedule, ending a quarter-century of deficits.

    ……………………The government raised public sector salaries, the minimum wage and pensions and even restored the amount of vacation days to prebailout levels over objections from creditors like Germany and the International Monetary Fund.

    …………………….At a time of mounting uncertainty in Europe, the country has defied critics who insisted on austerity as the answer to the Continent’s economic and financial crisis.

    ……………..when Europe’s debt crisis struck. The economy crumbled, wages were cut, and unemployment doubled. The government in Lisbon had to accept a humiliating international bailout.

    But as the misery deepened, Portugal took a daring stand: In 2015, it cast aside the austerity measures its European creditors had imposed, igniting a virtuous cycle that put its economy back on a path to growth. The country reversed cuts to wages, pensions and social security, and offered incentives to businesses.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/22/business/portugal-economy-austerity.html

    All good wishes to them.

    And they decriminalised drugs, all drugs, to considerable social benefit.

    And then there’s the gen-u-ine Portuguese tarts (from Belem).

  27. Pegasus @ #121 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 11:08 am

    Does Labor support the opt-out model for my health record?

    According to federal Labor MP Pat Conroy:

    https://www.smh.com.au/technology/zero-confidence-labor-mp-in-push-for-opt-in-digital-health-records-20180722-p4zsxm.html

    As the fallout continues over the government’s handling of the My Health Record roll-out, a Labor backbencher has become the first to publicly disown the opt-out model both Labor and the Liberal Party support, pushing for a change back to opt-in for the scheme he now says he has “zero confidence” in.

    I believe that Lib MP Tim Wilson has opted out.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/tim-wilson-opts-out-of-my-health-calls-for-opt-in-scheme/news-story/a80a8a7d48e7cc33fd674c93a4269ae9

  28. Tristo,
    You’re spot on. All the same, the challenge for the Labor Party is that the Murdochian propaganda blitz has the potential to result in too many lukewarm Labor voters deciding to let this by-election go through to the keeper because neither control of the government nor the Senate is on the line. You know, they’ve got a nasty hangover from TGIF or their kid’s got a big sporting event etc. etc. etc.

  29. GG

    As I’ve said before I value your opinions on electoral matters.

    Do you think the difficulties the Andrews government has been mired in recently has lessened their chances of success in November? I did ask the question a couple of days ago but I don’t think you were around at the time.

    Also while you’re at it, how are you reading Labor’s federal chances in light of the tightening of the polls we are seeing at the moment.

  30. The media, and certain politicians, are obsessed with keeping the population in fear through unbalanced mongering of criminal behaviour. This US study is the tip of the iceberg.

    This is not to condone evil jihadists in any way, however you can almost feel the letdown when the latest massacre is found to be ‘not terrorism related’.

    ‘Terrorist attacks committed by Muslim extremists receive 357% more US press coverage than those committed by non-Muslims, according to new research from the University of Alabama. The researchers controlled for factors like target type, number of fatalities, and whether or not the perpetrators were arrested before reaching their final statistic.

    Terrorist attacks committed by non-Muslims (or where the religion was unknown) received an average of 15 headlines, while those committed by Muslim extremists received 105 headlines.

    The findings, which are illustrated below, were based on all terrorist attacks in the US between 2006 and 2015 according to the Global Terrorism Database. The disparity in media coverage is particularly out of sync with the reality given that white and rightwing terrorists carried out nearly twice as many terrorist attacks as Muslim extremists between 2008 and 2016.’

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/20/muslim-terror-attacks-press-coverage-study?CMP=soc_568

  31. If you buy into the line that, unless he has a brilliant success on the by-elections, Shorten is toast, you’re guaranteeing yourself a life of continuous angst.

    At first the CPG told us that if Labor lost 2 out of 5 Bill was a goner.

    Then it was only 1 he needed to lose.

    Then it was just a reduced vote.

    Meanwhile, Turnbull has gone from braying confidence to making excuses for losing, telling us what we already know: that by-elections usually favour the opposition.

    CPG chartists quote figures that show an opposition by-election loss is a once-in-a-century event, as if magically if this happens Albo will mount a challenge forthwith, just like the media and Turnbull instructed him to. Forget about Labor spill rules and all the rest. “That’s all been taken care of,” we are assured by anonymous Labor insiders talking to CPG hacks paid to foment trouble.

    Now the latest message is that it’s all over red rover for Labor because notoriously unreliable by-election polls say so, making Labor the underdogs. It doesn’t make any sense, unless the idea is to demiralise potential voters into not turning up on Saturday. But the predicted margin is too close for that, a “statistical dead heat” as WB puts it.

    What else? To bring on a spill before Saturday? Like Canning in WA? Impossible, given the rules.

    The media have been progressively lowering the bar for Shorten Ruination until it’s virtually touching the ground. If a sparrow farts in Longman you could be forgiven for thinking that was enough to Kill Bill by now.

    All of this makes it seem to me that someone should be scared of defeat on Saturday, but it’s not necessarily Bill Shorten.

  33. Okay, Labor does.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/extend-e-health-opt-out-date-labor-says

    Labor wants to extend the deadline for people to opt out of the controversial My Health Records data storage system.

    Opposition health spokeswoman Catherine King wants the October 15 deadline extended to allow the government to run an information campaign to restore public trust in the system.
    :::
    In a letter to Health Minister Greg Hunt, Ms King reiterated Labor’s support for digital health records, but raised concerns the government’s implementation process had “seriously undermined public trust”.
    :::
    Implemented properly the e-health system could have significant benefits for clinician and patients and save the health system billions of dollars, she said.

  34. Darn @ #129 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 11:21 am

    GG

    As I’ve said before I value your opinions on electoral matters.

    Do you think the difficulties the Andrews government has been mired in recently has lessened their chances of success in November? I did ask the question a couple of days ago but I don’t think you were around at the time.

    Also while you’re at it, how are you reading Labor’s federal chances in light of the tightening of the polls we are seeing at the moment.

    Andrews just announced a $13billion regional train hub at Sunshine with the Airport connection as the steak knives. Likely to be very popular in the Regions like Ballarat and Geelong. So, his approach is pretty much getting on with the job which is probably the response that most voters will respect.

    I tend to ignore the inner beltway issues that the Libs and the Greens like to go on about.

    E.G. Skytrain from my sources is a huge success. It’s only the Libs and their running dogs in the MSM that portray it as an issue.

    Federally, I’m expecting Labor to win the contentious by-elections. Hansen disappearing is peculiar. One nation never poll that well at elections despite what the polls say.

    I don’t take much notice of personal ratings of politicians. People will vote for the candidate that represents their interests. History says by-elections swing to the Opposition. Can’t see any reason why that won’t be the case on Saturday.

  36. I don’t often agree with Tim Wilson.

    However he is totally correct on the MyHealthRecord.

    It should be opt in. Then the pressure is on the government to get it right.

  38. People will vote for the candidate that represents their interests.

    Many people will vote for the candidate that they have been hoodwinked to believe will represent their interests.

  39. Peter Dutton’s latest beat-up is wrong. Signed, VicPol.

    Commander Stuart Bateson, who leads Victoria Police’s African-Australian community taskforce, told 3AW that the death was not linked to any established gangs.

    “It’s not related to ethnicity, we’ve seen murders occur in similar circumstances ever since I’ve been in the police force,” Bateson said. “This is not to do with warring factions. The suggestion that Laa Chool, the victim, was a member of a gang is just not true.”

    Bateson also noted that the divisive debate about African gangs was encouraging racist behaviour in Victoria.

    “Just over the weekend we had an incident where a man of African heritage was with his ten-year-old son and was abused and threatened, just walking along the street,” Bateson said.

    Conservative talkback radio personality Neil Mitchell added that “what Peter Dutton said overnight is just wrong.”

    http://junkee.com/peter-dutton-laa-chol/168580

  42. Tristo @ #111 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 11:02 am

    @Prof. Higgins

    The main difference between the forthcoming Federal Election here and the US mid term elections is that Donald Trump is wildly popular among the Republican base which will ensure a strong turnout by those people. That sort of stuff matters in an electoral system with voluntary voting and low voter turnout as the United States has.

    That first half is entirely wrong. Trump is wildly popular amongst his rabid 35%. But they won’t turn up to the midterms because Trump isn’t running.

    The rest of the Republic party won’t turn up, because they’re turned off and disengaged. The may put down that they “approve” of Trump in opinion polls, but they don’t like him and are ashamed of him.

    Democratic voters are (rightfully) enraged, and likely to turn out in droves. Along with a good proportion of independent (and usually apathetic, but not when Trump is around wrecking the joint and paling around with Putin/Russia) voters.

  43. Pegasus @ #138 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 11:37 am

    People will vote for the candidate that represents their interests.

    Many people will vote for the candidate that they have been hoodwinked to believe will represent their interests.

    As I said, most people tend to ignore the inner beltway issues promulgated by the self righteous toss pots of the left and right and vote for those candidates whom they think will represent their interests best on issues of day to reality.

    I don’t always agree with them. But, I don’t disrespect them the way you are doing in that comment just because they have a different assessment to me.

  44. ar

    Trump is wildly popular amongst his rabid 35%. But they won’t turn up to the midterms because Trump isn’t running.

    Give the 35% a few stories about how the the Dems ,if they ‘win’, will try impeach Trump . That’ll get them out to vote.

  45. GG

    I meant no disrespect, unlike those here who rant daily about the fools (insert prejorative of choice) who don’t vote Labor and buy into the memes, etc of the MSM.

    As your comment illustrates, it’s okay for you to disrespect a whole swathe of people.

  48. @Prof Higgins

    I do believe a substantial swing to Labor could be a possibly in the Longman and Braddon by-elections. The polls from Mayo are consistently predicting Sharkie to romp home.

    These by-elections could end up extremely embarrassing for Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott’s white-anting of the government will continue. That is certainly influencing policy making by the government, witness the subsides to the coal industry as reported on the Macrobusiness blog.

    https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/06/suddenly-neg-big-fat-coal-subsidy/

  50. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/victorian-senator-falls-victim-to-labor-s-preselection-brawl-20180723-p4zt1m.html

    Victorian Labor Senator Gavin Marshall has fallen victim to the factional tussle within his party over federal preselections.

    The political veteran has been dropped down the party’s upper house ticket by his left faction, in defiance of Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s orders that sitting members are not to be dumped.

    Senator Marshall’s winnable spot on Labor’s Senate ticket at the next election will be given instead to United Voice union official Jess Walsh.
    ::::
    But there is uncertainty about who might go to Canberra as part of the deal after a backlash against a plan to install St Albans MP Natalie Suleyman in Fraser.
    ::::
    The race to contest the seat of Jagajaga in Melbourne’s north-east, vacated by former federal minister Jenny Macklin, has come down to two contenders, former Macklin staffer Kate Thwaites and local activist Sonja Terpstra.
    :::
    Macnamara, formerly Melbourne Ports, looks set to be contested by Josh Burns, a former staffer for retiring MP Michael Danby, amid allegations of dirty tricks and a stacked electorate meeting.

    Supporters of rival candidate Mary Delahunty say they were physically barred by security guards from entering a meeting of local party members last week which endorsed Mr Burns as its preferred candidate and have taken their complaints to the party authorities.

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