Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

The Coalition narrows what was previously an unusually strong Labor lead from Ipsos, while Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings continue to surge.

The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is a much better result for the Coalition than the last such poll four weeks ago, with Labor’s lead narrowing from 53-47 to 51-49. This is presumably the result from 2016 election preferences: Ipsos also produces a respondent-allocated result, but it usually takes a bit of digging to get hold of it.

The Coalition is up four on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is down one to 34% and the Greens are steady on 12%. Malcolm Turnbull also records strong improvement in his personal ratings, with approval up five to 55% and disapproval down six to 38%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 38% and up one to 54%. Turnbull’s lead as prime minister is out to 57-30, compared with 51-33 last month. Also featured are questions on best party to handle various issue areas, which have the Coalition leading 60-33 on the economy, 56-33 on interest rates and 45-41 on asylum seekers, while Labor leads 48-41 on health, 49-42 on education and 49-35 on the environment.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

See also the post below this one on Super Saturday by-election polling. You may also care to observe the post-redistribution electoral pendulum I posted over the weekend (and perhaps even to give the tip jar at the top of the page a workout, redistribution calculation being rather laborious exercise).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,742 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 55
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  1. boomy1 @ #45 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 9:31 am

    There will be four parties. Trumpeters, Bushies, Sanderistas and Democrat centrists.

    Bookmarked for the lols. Some of the shit you post is just shit.

    Boomyi

    Now can you actually red past grade 3. When I use the word suspect, what does that mean dearie.

    Does it mean that I am sure or that I even would put money on it.

    No dearie it means that I think it is possible, with a very slight edge.

    I KNOW how hard English is dearie but do try. Before you abuse people it is a very good idea to comprehend the language they are using. Now I guess you speak English Grade 1-6, but most of us peak at a Grade 12 level

    Hard for you I know, but do try.

  2. BiGD,
    I can understand the others but why would you ignore Cassandras?

    Yeah, I guess you’re correct. I was trying to find the term for the opposite of a Polyanna. 🙂

  3. I have noticed there is an political re-alignment occurring in the United States, it is hard to say what the two major parties (Democrats and Republicans) are going to be like in a few years. Although I believe it could split into a three party system like they have in Canada to the North. I believe Australia will gone down a similar route, if the Nationals decide to end the Coalition as a permanent arrangement, then start reaching out to voters in the bigger urban areas.

  4. Good Morning

    Despite the narrowing its well to remember the LNP have been losing polls look at bludgertrack.

    The by elections will tell us the result. They will tell us how much BS has been shovelled about Labor losing by elections or if its not bs. Just a week to wait.

    We will also see a test of if the new Newspoll methodology is on the money with super Saturday giving us a benchmark to measure against.

  5. Tristo

    Yes. We are in a state of flux as the right comes to grips with the failure of neo liberalism.

    As Guy Rundle wrote on Saturday the Right is afraid of smart socialist youth that eschews the central planning bureaucracy.

  6. Bette Midler tweets

    Thinking of changing the lyrics to one of my songs. Would you
    download, “The Putin Pleasin’ Treason Boy of Company Pee”?

  7. GhostWhoVotes @ #32 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 9:05 am

    Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred (respondent-allocated preferences): L/NP 50 (+4) ALP 50 (-4)

    That’s brutal for Bill Shorten. Is the vote collapsing under his leadership ?

    I noted a headline in the CM that Labor under Albo would poll much better.

  8. “There will be four parties. Trumpeters, Bushies, Sanderistas and Democrat centrists.”

    That’s not crazy, it makes sense as far as major lines of political positioning and outlook go: the populists right; the business / big money establishment and its allies; what might be called ‘the left’; and what might be called the progressive establishment.

    These are very unlikely to become four parties, however, because the US system effectively locks out third parties (unlike European systems). So what you have is the Republicans as an alliance of the first two and the Democrats the last two. In Europe, Trump would have started his own party. In the USA he had to take over the Republicans. Ross Perot might have succeeded back in the early 90s had he tried to do the same.

  9. Turnbull’s lead as prime minister is out to 57-30, compared with 51-33 last month.

    Can’t be ignored by the Labor caucus, surely ?

  10. Ipsos must be overweight polling Fitzroy and Newtown to get the 12% Greens. This beats their all time high point of 11% in 2013.

    So the shade being thrown at the invisible Black Wiggle must be mistaken, as he is cruising to a record result.

  11. guytaur @ #68 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 10:16 am

    Chris Bowen tweets

    Labor’s opposition to the Liberals’ corporate and personal income tax cuts means we have the more responsible budget policy. Essential services will suffer under the Liberals if there is an economic downturn.
    My oped in Today’s Financial Review:

    https://www.chrisbowen.net/media-releases/on-tax-cuts-it-s-labor-that-s-the-party-of-prudence/

    Bowen might be centre right but he too can see the death of neo liberalism .

    No, he’s a trickle down supporter.

  12. Salivate all you like Rex. There will be no change of leader this side of the next election, as you yourself have acknowledged.

    The dream of Albo taking over and leading Labor to a crushing win is all in your fevered imagination.

  13. DTT: “KNOW how hard English is dearie but do try. Before you abuse people it is a very good idea to comprehend the language they are using. Now I guess you speak English Grade 1-6, but most of us peak at a Grade 12 level”

    If you want to know why I scroll past DTT: this kind of bullshit condescension is exactly why. You really are a pathetic soul if you insist on talking to others like this.

  14. I thought that Wilson, as a gay man, would know what it is like to feel marginalised. However, being ex IPA
    means his first priority is to marginalise people who cannot easily fight back.

    Naming and blaming the Sudanese community for rising crime in Victoria is part of addressing the problem, federal Liberal MP Tim Wilson says.

    Mr Wilson, who represents the Melbourne electorate of Goldstein says some in his community are afraid to go out for dinner in the city because of crime rates.

    He says people are seeing a rise in gangs, particularly from the Sudanese community, and are demanding answers.

    https://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/5540742/victorians-afraid-of-sudanese-gangs-mp/

  15. Darn @ #71 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 10:21 am

    Salivate all you like Rex. There will be no change of leader this side of the next election, as you yourself have acknowledged.

    The dream of Albo taking over and leading Labor to a crushing win is all in your fevered imagination.

    Yes I don’t think Labor have the mettle to change.

  16. @guytaur

    I agree at least for the segments of the right which support neo-liberal economics, especially free tade.

    However given the rise of Trump, there are segments of the right that are beginning to reject neoliberal economics particularly free trade. It is quite notable that Donald Trump also his former adviser Steve Bannon) has embraced economic protectionism. Economically protectionist policies are also advocated by right-wing populist parties all across Europe, such as Front National in France and the Lega in Italy.

    I predict at the forthcoming European elections a bloc of Nationalist, Populist, Protectionist and Euroseptic parties will probably be the largest group in parliament. Steve Bannon at the moment is working with these parties all across Europe to form such a bloc.

    Therefore; I can totally see a National Party which has left the Coalition and in a bid to broaden it’s appeal embrace protectionism. One Nation is quite noticeable for advocating economically protectionist policies. Such a party could end up at least being a third party bigger than the Greens winning a considerable number of lower house seats or even becoming one of the two major parties (along with Labor).

  17. Of more concern to Labor would be the narrowing on who is best to handle the issues – health and education.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-narrows-gap-but-labor-keeps-slim-lead-in-fairfax-ipsos-poll-20180722-p4zsyw.html

    Labor held a stronger position on health two years ago, leading by 50 to 35 per cent…

    On education, 49 per cent of voters believe Labor is the better choice to handle the issue while 42 per cent name the Coalition in the latest survey.

    This is also a narrower gap than the result of 51 to 37 per cent in Labor’s favour two years ago…

    Though Labor would be happy with the narrowing on the issue of asylum seekers, assuming the support for Labor on this is due to its bipartisanship policy on boat turnbacks, etc.

    The shift has been more significant on the handling of asylum seeker policy, where the government has accused Mr Shorten of being under pressure from the Left to soften his stance on boat turnbacks.

    The Coalition remains the preferred party to manage the issue but with a shrinking lead over Labor, 45 per cent to 41 per cent, compared with the result two years ago when it led by 47 to 32 per cent.

  18. If you want to know why I scroll past DTT: this kind of bullshit condescension is exactly why. You really are a pathetic soul if you insist on talking to others like this.

    It’s cool jenauthor. Once you recognise what it is you just filter it through. Like the press gallery does.

  19. Pegasus @ #82 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 10:29 am

    Of more concern to Labor would be the narrowing on who is best to handle the issues – health and education.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-narrows-gap-but-labor-keeps-slim-lead-in-fairfax-ipsos-poll-20180722-p4zsyw.html

    Labor held a stronger position on health two years ago, leading by 50 to 35 per cent…

    On education, 49 per cent of voters believe Labor is the better choice to handle the issue while 42 per cent name the Coalition in the latest survey.

    This is also a narrower gap than the result of 51 to 37 per cent in Labor’s favour two years ago…

    Though Labor would be happy with the narrowing on the issue of asylum seekers, assuming the support for Labor on this is due to its bipartisanship policy on boat turnbacks, etc.

    The shift has been more significant on the handling of asylum seeker policy, where the government has accused Mr Shorten of being under pressure from the Left to soften his stance on boat turnbacks.

    The Coalition remains the preferred party to manage the issue but with a shrinking lead over Labor, 45 per cent to 41 per cent, compared with the result two years ago when it led by 47 to 32 per cent.

    What a shameful indication that is re asylum seeker policy.

  20. citizen

    There are also Sudanese who are afraid to leave their homes because of the attacks from newspapers/media.

    I am more afraid of the hard right gangs, myself. And Peter Dutton.

  21. Tristo

    You are confusing populist voters with conservative voters.

    As Trump intended.

    His False populism goes against the very thing the populists voted for. Trump is very much for the elites.

    Populists are the class war against the elite. That is those that control the wealth.

    Trump has just done what Bush and Reagan have done more effectively.

    Just like Abbott did. He too will come a cropper despite having popularity in his own party.

  22. jenauthor @ #76 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 10:25 am

    DTT: “KNOW how hard English is dearie but do try. Before you abuse people it is a very good idea to comprehend the language they are using. Now I guess you speak English Grade 1-6, but most of us peak at a Grade 12 level”

    If you want to know why I scroll past DTT: this kind of bullshit condescension is exactly why. You really are a pathetic soul if you insist on talking to others like this.

    I see worse than that here on a daily basis that seems to get overlooked.

  23. Antfarmer
    @antfarmer

    ICYMI. The One Nation candidate for #Longman when interviewed this morn said ‘Bill Shorten is allowing 50K immigrants into Bribie Island’. When pressed, he said it was ‘hypothetical’. People vote for this race baiting crap? FFS. #rnbreakfast

  24. DaretoTread says:
    Monday, July 23, 2018 at 9:48 am
    boomy1 @ #45 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 9:31 am

    There will be four parties. Trumpeters, Bushies, Sanderistas and Democrat centrists.

    Bookmarked for the lols. Some of the shit you post is just shit.

    Boomyi

    Now can you actually red past grade 3. When I use the word suspect, what does that mean dearie.

    Does it mean that I am sure or that I even would put money on it.

    No dearie it means that I think it is possible, with a very slight edge.

    I KNOW how hard English is dearie but do try. Before you abuse people it is a very good idea to comprehend the language they are using. Now I guess you speak English Grade 1-6, but most of us peak at a Grade 12 level

    Hard for you I know, but do try.

    DTT

    As others have tried to explain to you, that kind of patronising tone will only dissuade people from bothering to read what you write, albeit that Boomyr1 could have phrased his criticism a little better as well.

    Why don’t you dig out a very old but good book by Dale Carnegie called “How to win friends and influence people” and perhaps you might learn something about why your attitude is totally counter productive.

  25. Just like Abbott did. He too will come a cropper despite having popularity in his own party.

    Guytaur what does this mean, like , is there an end.

  26. @guytaur

    I would argue the truth concerning Trump is quite mixed, some things he has done has earned the enmity of the a fair amount of Republican establishment in America. Even I agree with you with Trump is thoroughly a part of the 1% crowd.

  27. This doesn’t make sense (although Pauline rarely makes sense). Why stop campaigning a week before an election that you previously declared would be very important? Why can’t she take a rest immediately after the poll?

    Something doesn’t add up, unless you see the evidence of PHON puppeteer Ashby at work or more disunity in the party.

    https://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/5540503/labor-facing-historic-by-election-defeat/?cs=7631

    Meanwhile, One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has withdrawn from campaigning in Longman, with party candidate Matthew Stephen saying she is “exhausted and in need of some R&;R”.

    “There is a big year ahead, which will include a general election, and she wants to recharge over the next few weeks and come back bigger and stronger,” he told The Australian.

  28. Given Shorten hasn’t wheeled out much of the policy agenda and programs… while the Government has thrown the kitchen sink AND set us up for even worse structural deficits into the future, and this is the best they can do?

    The Government does well when Parliament isn’t sitting… which is why I maintain, however much like a broken record I may sound, that I don’t think Turnbull wants Parliament to come back on 13 August.

  29. guytaur @ #86 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 10:36 am

    His False populism goes against the very thing the populists voted for. Trump is very much for the elites.

    He too will come a cropper despite having popularity in his own party.

    My concern is that the hypocrisy of Trump’s voters outweighs their populism. As in, they’re happy to have a whinge about how rough they have it, but even more happy to suck it up and keep voting for Trump even though he’s objectively made their position even more rough.

    Because they’d rather have their giant middle-finger to the world than actually have their situation made any better.

  30. People’s Party (United States)
    From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    Jump to navigationJump to search
    This article is about the American political party, also known as the Populists, which existed from 1891 to 1919. For other American and worldwide parties using the term “populists”, see Populist Party. For 1850s groups in Ohio and Indiana affiliated with the Anti-Nebraska movement and Know-Nothing party, see Fusion Party. For the American party with the same name which was active in the 1970s, see People’s Party (United States, 1971). For the party existing in the Utah Territory from 1870–1891, see People’s Party (Utah).
    People’s Party
    Populist-logo.jpg
    Leader James B. Weaver
    William Jennings Bryan
    Thomas E. Watson
    Founded 1891
    Dissolved 1908
    Preceded by Farmers’ Alliance
    Greenback Party
    Union Labor Party
    Merged into Farmer-Labor Party
    Democratic Party
    Progressive Party
    Ideology Agrarianism
    Bimetallism
    Populism
    Political position Left-wing
    Politics of United States
    Political parties
    Elections
    The People’s Party, also known as the Populist Party or the Populists, was an agrarian-populist political party in the United States. For a few years, from 1892 to 1896, it played a major role as a left-wing force in American politics. It was merged into the Democratic Party in 1896; a small independent remnant survived until 1908. It drew support from angry farmers in the West and South. It was highly critical of banks and railroads, and allied itself with the labor movement.[1][2][3]

    Established in 1891, as a result of the Populist movement, the People’s Party reached its peak in the 1892 presidential election, when its ticket, composed of James B. Weaver and James G. Field, won 8.5% of the popular vote and carried five states (Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Nevada and North Dakota), and the 1894 House of Representatives elections, when it took over 10% of the vote. Built on a coalition of poor, white cotton farmers in the South (especially North Carolina, Alabama and Texas) and hard-pressed wheat farmers in the Plains states (especially Kansas and Nebraska), the Populists represented a radical combination of agrarianism and urbanism with hostility to banks, landowners, Eastern elites, railroads, and the gold standard.[4]

    Though Henry George refused to campaign for the Populist Party, many of his supporters did, which created a contest for power between Georgists and socialists in states such as Illinois, where Clarence Darrow lobbied for the Georgist ‘single-taxers’. Another major Georgist figure in the People’s Party was Congressman “Sockless Jerry” Simpson from Kansas. The Texas Farmers’ Alliance and the Texas People’s Party both adopted Georgist planks in their platforms.[5] In more urban states such as New York, the Georgist wing reportedly “practically dominated” the People’s Party.[6] Other state branches of the People’s Party adopted less radical land tax planks in their platforms.[7]

    The party sometimes allied with labor unions in the North and Republicans in the South. In the 1896 presidential elections the Populists endorsed the Democratic presidential nominee, William Jennings Bryan, adding their own vice presidential nominee. By joining with the Democrats, the People’s Party lost its independent identity and rapidly withered away.

    Later, after the dissolution of the party, the term populist acquired a generic meaning and throughout most of the 20th century and into the 21st, the term means, “a believer in the rights, wisdom, or virtues of the common people.”[8][9]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Party_(United_States)

  31. The Neolibs would have been apoplectic at some of Portugal’s moves. 🙂

    Portugal Dared to Cast Aside Austerity.

    It’s Having a Major Revival.The government is on track to achieve a surplus by 2020, a year ahead of schedule, ending a quarter-century of deficits.

    ……………………The government raised public sector salaries, the minimum wage and pensions and even restored the amount of vacation days to prebailout levels over objections from creditors like Germany and the International Monetary Fund.

    …………………….At a time of mounting uncertainty in Europe, the country has defied critics who insisted on austerity as the answer to the Continent’s economic and financial crisis.

    ……………..when Europe’s debt crisis struck. The economy crumbled, wages were cut, and unemployment doubled. The government in Lisbon had to accept a humiliating international bailout.

    But as the misery deepened, Portugal took a daring stand: In 2015, it cast aside the austerity measures its European creditors had imposed, igniting a virtuous cycle that put its economy back on a path to growth. The country reversed cuts to wages, pensions and social security, and offered incentives to businesses.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/22/business/portugal-economy-austerity.html

  32. The Galaxy poll in Longman was quoted in local Canberra FM radio news as “evidence” that Bill is finished, kaput. Presumably that idea will infest radio and TV Australia wide today. Be prepared

    Throwing “bad polls” at Labor at this late stage of the game is pretty pointless. It’s reminiscent of the most infantile playground behaviour, as the media sing: “NO-body likes you! NO-body likes you!”

    So what if the polls today are bad for Shorten? We’ll know the REAL result in a few days anyway. All this Kill Bill shit can do now is make Labor the underdogs.

    Seems crazy to me.

  33. @citizen

    It is obvious again that One Nation is self destructing again, like it does on a periodic basis. I don’t know if the Coalition will benefit greatly from it. Since there are a number of parties which occupy a similar ground to One Nation. Especially given many in the Coalition’s Conservative supporter base absolutely despise Malcolm Turnbull and would like to make a protest vote.

    @a r

    I agree totally, depending on who the Democrats nominate in 2020, Donald Trump could be re-elected. The Republican die hard supporters absolutely love him. Malcolm Turnbull on the other-hand is loathed (about as much as Bill Shorten) among the Coalition die hard supporters, I know, I happen to read their Twitter feeds.

  34. Exactly – lets say Labor does manage to hold both of them – how bloody stupid would the media look and how bloody weak would Turnbull look?

  35. RD

    Get with the program, it’s fine and dandy for a minority of Laborites to heap abuse, derision and condescension on a daily basis onto the handful of ‘outsiders’.

    Interesting posters have come and gone when they understand the rules of engagement here, much to the detriment of this blog.

    Some Laborites like to rationalise these posters don’t last long because they are defeated by the intellectual prowess and logic of their arguments.

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