The latest poll from Ipsos, the week’s only fresh result, has caused the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to take a 0.6% turn in Labor’s favour. About half of this is down to the poll recording reasonably strong primary vote numbers for Labor, but the other half is down to Labor’s particularly good result on respondent-allocated preferences. This helps BludgerTrack determine the wild card in the electoral deck, namely the flow of One Nation preferences. Since data of this kind is only provided by Ipsos and ReachTEL, results have a fairly substantial impact when they do come along, which might be thought a shortcoming of the model. In any case, the BludgerTrack seat projection now has Labor up one apiece in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. Ipsos also produced leadership ratings which, after adjustment for Ipsos’s pronounced peculiarities on this score (i.e. how favourable they tend to be for both leaders, but especially for Turnbull), landed right on trend and hence made next to no difference to the existing result.
As always, full results from the link below. And while you’re here, take note of the dedicated post on the Super Saturday by-elections below, and my bi-monthly grovel for money in the post above. Thank you!
Finally, one more polling nugget for good measure: four days ago, GhostWhoVotes related that ReachTEL conducted a poll of the Bundaberg-based seat of Hinkler, which Labor hasn’t held since Paul Keating was Prime Minister, back on May 17. This had the Liberal National Party leading 54-46, down from 58.4-41.6 at the election, from primary votes of LNP 40.8%, Labor 27.3%, One Nation 14.3% and Greens 4.2%. For whom this poll was conducted and why, I can only speculate. Perhaps the Ghost can fill us in in comments, if he or she is about.
Oh well at least i wasnt left in suspense.
The “Gosford Godzilla” is already achieving Labor Warrior Princess status, a true legend of the conference floor, her name whispered in the corridors of power, while the only place I can claim to be legend in is my own lunchtime.
That’s the last time I make fun of Gosford, or anyone who lives there.
So Newspoll loss 35. A new record!
PHON 6
Greens 9
Come on Malcolm. Call it. Election now!
If anyone has replied to my earlier posts about transport and thinks I should respond, let me know.
Its been impossible to scan with all the idiotic cheerleading, slagging off, dumb photos and automatic-scroll-past names.
With all the Labor insiders here, I’d love a clear and detailed answer to the following question..
Labor Left vs Labor Right. What actual differences are there in nuts and bolts policy?
Get fucked cud chewer lol
51:49 the msm will wet itself. the following newspoll will be back to 52:48.
Kevin Bonham says these numbers on 2016 prefs would be 51.9 to ALP
Kevin Bonham calculating
ALP 51.9
Lib 48.1
based on 2016 preferences and pre-revised PHON weightings
On these numbers, Albo might be spending more time in the kitchen during the next 4 weeks.
PHON is on 6? Is that right?
Essential tomorrow should confirm a firming … or not
The Labor caucus will be nervous…
So after all the hullabaloo this week, that’s it? A one point shift within MoE.
Call an election and get it over with. The Tories are done.
So back to where Newspoll was in mid May.
Ho hum.
Cud Chewer
“What actual differences are there in nuts and bolts policy?”
Apparently the right’s policies are on the left and the left’s policies are on the right, relatively speaking.
jenauthor @ #1409 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 7:56 pm
Thanks Jen.
Newspoll more Meh! than Wow!
Shorten is done.
Christ almighty, two weeks of leadershit and CPG pontifications and it’s worth -1% off the 2PP?
They’re going to have to catch Bill Shorten in bed with a nanny goat to get rid of him.
Cud, I appreciated your comments, it got me thinking about HSR in a different light. No Q’s at this time.
Also no more info on the PHES stuff, sorry, but I do have a contact who was doing techno-economic assessments of Kaplan and Pelton turbine installations for RotR hydro plants. He”s been out of the country, but I’ll ask him when I next get a chance.
So that’s why the call him Billy the kid?
Labor primary of 37%. So 2 years and all Labor has managed is a shaky 1% improvement in primary after a huge amount of instability in the LIbs.
A lot of MP’s in their late 40’s and early 50’s will not allow Shorten to f up their shot at Cabinet. It will be a coop – its just a question of whether they lock in behind Albo or another contender.
C’mon ESJ and Rex … surely you can be a bit more imaginative
Oh and Rex, if you’d watched the NSW conf today, you’d say that the labor team is far from nervous
The Australian
But it was the satisfaction ratings that have blown out for the Labor leader who is now trailing the Liberal leader by the largest margin in approval ratings since the election.
Approval of Mr Shorten’s performance fell a point to 32 per cent while dissatisfaction rose to 57 marking a negative net satisfaction rating of minus 25.
Mr Turnbull on the other hand rose two points in approval to 42. With a 48 per cent disapproval rating the Prime Minister has recorded his best approval ratings since the election despite still being in negative territory.
The results reveal that both leaders remain unpopular.
Cos Jen – NSW ALP conf is a model Athenian forum of democracy and debate – not!
2 thoughts on the nothingburger newspoll result
1. The CPG and MSM are declining in their irrelevance – nobody who is not rusted on takes any notice of them, and predominant voting intentions are locked in.
2. Tax cuts and associated backflips and flip flops are eye glazing for most, and for those who do take the effort to investigate and discover it is a piddling $10 a week are underwhelmed.
So, on last election’s prefs, there is nothing to see here – everybody move on.
Hahaha ESJ, you are, as ever, a great source of mirth.
Where’s Wayne? He should pop up now, surely
Shorten’s not going to last the distance sprocket. It’s a good thing for Labor though – whoever emerges from the scrum will most likely be spending Christmas 2019 at the Lodge.
Labor are still well placed to win the next election. They have a very good story to tell and plenty of money in the kitty to back it up. Most of their big policy announcements are still to come and they will almost certainly be vote winners.
Even with their tax handouts and Labor’s slip up this week the Liberals still can’t break even, let alone hit the front. They are ripe for the picking.
ESJ and Rex
Serious question. Why is the Coalition polling stagnant? 37 NewsPoll loses in a row?
Bushfire Bill @ #1401 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 9:50 pm
Can you get over yourself? Do you really think you’re on a winner with the peanut gallery with this ‘Gosford Godzilla’ crap?
I thought it was quite a funny post from B.B actually @ person!
ESJ
For an intelligent person you do say some dumb things.
Eddie (btw I reckon you are the Lama in the group photo)
“It will be a coop – its just a question of whether they lock in behind Albo or another contender.”
#leadershit!
Hilarious! Who didn’t see this coming apart from Mr Art of the Deal? Kim has never kept his word about anything, he’s as reliable as Trump.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/north-korea-working-to-conceal-key-aspects-of-its-nuclear-program-us-officials-say/2018/06/30/deba64fa-7c82-11e8-93cc-6d3beccdd7a3_story.html?utm_term=.7b35b7745a86
Simple question, Bushfire Bill. You do realise how disrespectful it is to keep calling me the ‘Gosford Godzilla’, don’t you? Or don’t you care?
I think Menzies House needs to freshen up their schtick.
ESJ and Rex are almost as boring as the #KillBill and culture wars staples.
Commentators on airwaves and in print will waste thousands of words, and millions of electrons on the Internet, talking about a shift that is illusory.
ESJ has already kicked off with “Shorten is done”.
Mention the MoE and you’ll get a blank look.
I think I’ll have a news free day tomorrow. I can’t cope with the stupidity.
C@t:
You need to claim and own the Gosford Godzilla thing. Nothing pisses off your antagonists more than claiming a put down and turning it into a badge of honour.
Menzies House aren’t sending us their best people.
boring. get a life.
Confessions @ #1442 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 10:15 pm
Sane and sensible advice as always. 🙂
I just don’t get how threatened some keyboard heroes are by someone who actually gets up and gives it a crack!?!
The only thing more boring than ESJ and Rex are those who respond to them. Tiresome beyond belief.
ESJ
the alp swings in qld and wa mean that ‘1% national’ (which will be back to 2-3% next and following poll) = many seats. LNP scraped back last time and have been a rabble since. shorten will have a healthy majority. the beat up of the past week has passed and labor is still in the lead. LNP is on a hiding over penalty rates and just being repulsive people.
boomy1 @ #1444 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 10:16 pm
You mean, unlike you, who sits on his computer all day and tells people who are trying to actually do something that they are boring and THEY need to get a life!?
Well, I can safely ignore you then. 🙂
ESJ & Rex … you do realise that next #newspoll will occur when a LOT of people get less in their paypackets. D’you Think they’ll be thanking Miracle Mal?