BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

The BludgerTrack pendulum swings back to Labor after a good result for them in this week’s Ipsos poll, both on primary votes and respondent-allocated preferences.

The latest poll from Ipsos, the week’s only fresh result, has caused the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to take a 0.6% turn in Labor’s favour. About half of this is down to the poll recording reasonably strong primary vote numbers for Labor, but the other half is down to Labor’s particularly good result on respondent-allocated preferences. This helps BludgerTrack determine the wild card in the electoral deck, namely the flow of One Nation preferences. Since data of this kind is only provided by Ipsos and ReachTEL, results have a fairly substantial impact when they do come along, which might be thought a shortcoming of the model. In any case, the BludgerTrack seat projection now has Labor up one apiece in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia. Ipsos also produced leadership ratings which, after adjustment for Ipsos’s pronounced peculiarities on this score (i.e. how favourable they tend to be for both leaders, but especially for Turnbull), landed right on trend and hence made next to no difference to the existing result.

As always, full results from the link below. And while you’re here, take note of the dedicated post on the Super Saturday by-elections below, and my bi-monthly grovel for money in the post above. Thank you!

Finally, one more polling nugget for good measure: four days ago, GhostWhoVotes related that ReachTEL conducted a poll of the Bundaberg-based seat of Hinkler, which Labor hasn’t held since Paul Keating was Prime Minister, back on May 17. This had the Liberal National Party leading 54-46, down from 58.4-41.6 at the election, from primary votes of LNP 40.8%, Labor 27.3%, One Nation 14.3% and Greens 4.2%. For whom this poll was conducted and why, I can only speculate. Perhaps the Ghost can fill us in in comments, if he or she is about.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,512 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

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  1. ESJ/Osbservor

    “He wrote a bio of johnwinstonhoward observer.”

    It’s working title was ‘The Lying Rodent: From Earlwood to Kirribilli through Perfecting Lying”

  2. I wonder if there’s any truth to this.

    Jim Verdon@James_Verdon
    6h6 hours ago

    Sky will soon be rebroadcast on WIN TV throughout Australia soon. It will no longer be a niche operator.

  3. “How did pvo come to public attention in the first place?”

    He’s been around for donkeys’ years, writing for The Australian, at least since the 90s.

  4. ESJ

    Sadly no pics. However the BeetRooter remains a sleazy albatross hanging around the neck of his we-got-the-band-back-together mate Malcolm Turnbull. You must be so proud.


  5. Observer says:
    Sunday, July 1, 2018 at 8:27 pm
    How did pvo come to public attention in the first place?

    Observer please enlighten us


  6. Edwina StJohn says:
    Sunday, July 1, 2018 at 8:26 pm
    Ironically she later became an opponent of abortion

    Really! I did not know that. Why did she became an opponent of abortion later?


  7. Edwina StJohn says:
    Sunday, July 1, 2018 at 8:28 pm
    He wrote a bio of johnwinstonhoward observer.

    No kidding. Wow.


  8. Edwina StJohn says:
    Sunday, July 1, 2018 at 8:34 pm
    Lol sprocket , have u got more Barnaby and girlfriend info to share? Pics?

    Keeping it/ them for a rainy day


  9. Edwina StJohn says:
    Sunday, July 1, 2018 at 8:49 pm
    Google Norma McCorvey ven and u can read the story for yourself.

    Thanks ESJ. I will

  10. Confessions says:
    Sunday, July 1, 2018 at 8:38 pm
    I wonder if there’s any truth to this.

    Jim Verdon@James_Verdon
    6h6 hours ago

    Sky will soon be rebroadcast on WIN TV throughout Australia soon. It will no longer be a niche operator.

    In Canberra WIN broadcasts the Ten Network through three channels. The Seven and Nine networks, also ABC and SBS, have four channels each. It’s possible that WIN will create a fourth channel to broadcast SKY.

    Over the last year or so, several more channels have appeared on our TV. As well as the shopping channels, there is a racing channel and one broadcasting Jimmy Swaggart. It seems there is sufficient bandwidth to allow more entrants into the crowded ‘free to air’ marketplace.

  11. Chris Kenny says there is a little bit of good news for Malcolm Turnbull in Newspoll tonight.

    That’s nice. I hope Chris Kenny is happy with the poll.

  12. citizen:

    I believe we have WIN here too, although it doesn’t get much viewing in this household.

    davidwh:

    It was somewhat widely predicted that once he passed the No. 30 the caravan would move on.

  13. here is a fun fact

    Georgina Downer may be an IPA stooge seeking her born-to-rule inheritance of the seat of Mayo, but at least (as far as we know) she is not as big an arsehole as her father.

    Bernard Collaery and his unnamed whistleblower are facing prosecution for breaching the ASIS Act, which they may well have technically done. But the bigger public interest issue is what was the whistle blown on?

    The core issue is that Australia, in 2006 under the Liberal Government, with Alexander Downer as point man – decided to screw over the impoverished East Timor by annexing the gas rich acreage under the Timor Sea. The ‘agreed border’ was moved in such way that the gas fields fell under Australian territory.

    That a rich country like Australia could shaft a poor neighbour in this fashion is one of the biggest blights on the Howard years, with Georgina’s daddy up to his stockings in it.

    “Former Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer has hit out at recent allegations made by the East Timorese government that Australia spied on the country in 2004, at the height of negotiations over lucrative gas reserves in the Timor Sea.

    Mr Downer said he was ‘cynical’ about the comments, labelling them ‘opportunistic’.

    ‘[The allegations] are tied up with East Timor’s desire… [to] abrogate the [2006] treaty we signed, in order to get the gas flowing to East Timor rather than have the gas flowing to Australia,’ Mr Downer told Breakfast.

    Australia and East Timor signed the Treaty on Certain Maritime Arrangements in the Timor Sea (CMATS) in 2006.

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/alexander-downer-interview/5121558

  14. On the Outsiders producer suspension.

    Laura TingleVerified account@latingle
    12m12 minutes ago
    25 year old woman gets suspended not the misogynists what a joke

  15. Been catching up with the past week of Rachel Maddow.

    Repulsive are going hard to try and shut down Mueller. And it has been revealed that a number of high ranking russians were invited to a whole lot of exclusive inaugural events.

  16. Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    2m2 minutes ago
    Those accountable for that disgraceful show and it’s content are the male hosts, the male news director and the male CEO. Not a 25 year old producer writing a strap which says exactly what a senator (disgracefully) said.

    Yep.

  17. I very much doubt that PvO feels even the barest hint of disgruntlement at leaving Sky News.

    The outlet is barely watched, has only David Speers left representing even a modicum of talent as a journalist within their stable, and it’s been forced to publicly apologise to SHY in an attempt to fend off a potential lawsuit because it has a program that not only enables, but champions sexism and misogyny.

    Not much to feel disgruntled about amongst all that lot.

  18. I think a castrated pig would be very gruntled. There are are a lot of de-balled pigs the Coalition. Starting with Malcolm.

  19. Look, after the week Bill Shorten had and the gift it gave to Malcolm Turnbull as his Corporate Tax Cuts horse was throwing a shoe, it wouldn’t surprise me if Labor lost some Newspoll paint.

  20. Confessions @ #1373 Sunday, July 1st, 2018 – 9:09 pm

    Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    2m2 minutes ago
    Those accountable for that disgraceful show and it’s content are the male hosts, the male news director and the male CEO. Not a 25 year old producer writing a strap which says exactly what a senator (disgracefully) said.

    Yep.

    And all the males most likely have small weiners that they are overcompensating for by making such remarks.

  21. I’m calling a 50.5 to 49.5 with bills netstat down about 26. And then in the next 2 weeks for turnbull to dial the talk about the company tax cuts up to 11. Then an late August GE.

  22. Good on Tingle and PvO for calling out this bastardry for what it is. Savva, Coorey and Crowe were unanimous about it on Insiders as well.

  23. @C@tMomma,

    Did not manage to catch you at conference today – realised when I got there that there were an enormous number of people, and asking for the “Gosford” delegates just got me looked at very suspiciously 🙂

  24. I think a castrated pig would be very gruntled. There are are a lot of de-balled pigs the Coalition. Starting with Malcolm.

    I think your men problems don’t involve me Puff the magic Dragon.

  25. While I don’t think it’ll be the case, I really would like there to be no change on Newspoll – it would confirm the electorate isn’t listening to the govt.

  26. Last newspoll was too late to capture the government ABC slip iirc, and i think this tax is mostly theater to any swinging voters, it plays to the flanks, but the theater might erase negativity from ABC, so i tip no change.

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