Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

Both sides down on the primary vote in Ipsos, as ReachTEL reiterates early findings of a big lead for Rebekha Sharkie in Mayo, and a squeaker in Longman.

My warning of a poll drought in the previous post hadn’t reckoned on Fairfax’s Ipsos series, which fills the void with a 53-47 result for Labor, down from 54-46 from the previous poll six weeks ago. As best as I can tell, all we have to go on at this stage is an editorial in The Age that suggests both major parties are on 35% of the primary vote, which is a two point drop for Labor and a one point drop for the Coalition. Leadership ratings and minor party primary votes will have to wait. Recent form suggests the poll will have had a sample of 1200, and been conducted Thursday to Sunday.

We also have two more federal by-election polls for the Australia Institute from ReachTEL, keeping in mind that the prestige of ReachTEL’s electorate polls have just taken a knock with the Liberals’ clear win in Darling Range. That’s all the comfort Georgina Downer can draw from its results, the latest of which gives Rebekha Sharkie her biggest lead yet in Mayo: 62-38 on two-party preferred, from primary votes (after exclusion of the 2.6% undecided) of 43.5% for Sharkie, 32.7% for Downer, 9.0% for the Greens and 8.2% for Labor.

In Longman, ReachTEL now records a 50-50 result after showing Liberal National Party candidate Trevor Ruthenberg leading Labor Section 44 victim Susan Lamb by 51-49. Primary votes after exclusion of 3.2% undecided are Labor 40.4%, LNP 36.1%, One Nation 15.2% and Greens 4.5%, so presumably One Nation’s respondent-allocated preferences are flowing solidly to the LNP. This poll was also conducted on Thursday, from a sample of 727. Full results from both polls are available here.

UPDATE: Those missing primary votes from Ipsos turn out to be 12% for the Greens, up one, and 6% for One Nation, also up one. The respondent-allocated two-party result goes the other way from the headline result, with Labor now leading 54-46, up from 53-47. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are down on his unusually strong result last time, with approval down one to 50% and disapproval up five to 44%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up one to 40% and two to 53% (both leaders do unusually well on this metric from Ipsos). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 51-33, down from 52-32.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,220 comments on “Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Madrid’s metro system is fantastic, only problem is sometimes finding the right platform where they have a myriad of crossover pedestrian escalators and tunnels.

  2. Just thinking about William, this came to mind

    ‘The Bowe is my shepherd; I shall not want.
    He maketh me to lie down in green pastures: he leadeth me beside the still waters.
    He restoreth my soul: he leadeth me in the paths of righteousness for his name’s sake.
    Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil: for thou art with me; thy rod and thy staff they comfort me.
    Thou preparest a table before me in the presence of mine enemies: thou anointest my head with oil; my cup runneth over.
    Surely goodness and mercy shall follow me all the days of my life: and I will dwell in the house of the Bowe for ever.’

  3. @GeorgeMonbiot
    Some horrifying figures from the latest @theCCCuk progress report on the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions.
    “Greenest government ever”, my rear end!
    1. Installing insulation has simply collapsed:

  4. My family and I used the Munich underground a bit last year, ticketing and destinations were clear and straightforward, and it was always on time. A very god system.

  5. Bernard Collaery had a short but spectacular ACT Government political career, highlighted by moving a no confidence motion in 1989 in Labor’s Rosemary Follet, which was successful and he was rewarded by the Liberal Trevor Kaine with the A-G position.

    This lasted a year and a half before he got tired of being shafted by the Liberals, and in 1991 moved a no confidence motion in them, which also got up. Needless to say the good burghers of the ACT booted him at the next election. My recollection of him was of the type of self-publicising lawyers who like to see their names in the media by taking on cause célèbre

  6. “Keating would fillet him in a sentence”

    I’d pay to see that, LOL

    ps. more o trains- the Italian Intercity fast trains were exceptional!

  7. Spr
    All that may be true. What is also true is that Collaery busted several governments for dicking the impoverished Timor L’est by cheating in the negotiations.
    This has since been partially fixed with a diplomatic reset of the Agreement.

  8. Rex, please stop spewing twaddle about the following topics, until you’ve taken a good, long and OBJECTIVE look at the facts on the ground:

    – Labor’s economic policies being “trickle-down” in nature, when they are predicated upon tax cuts for lower income earners, none for higher income earners and boosts to the ATO’s ability to crack down on multinational tax rorters;
    – Labor being an undemocratic Party, when Labor at least allows its rank-and-file membership a 50% say on the Parliamentary leader’s position – and is the ONLY Party in Parliament to do so;
    – Shorten being a “drag” on Labor when all available evidence leads inescapably to the conclusion that any Labor leader would be subject to sustained character-assassination by the incredibly right-wing, incredibly concentrated Australian media, and would therefore presumably see their personal like/dislike ratings go straight into the crapper; and
    – Labor being “anti-renewables”. Labor has, by virtue of being able to win enough popular support to form Government, done VASTLY more for renewable energy, electric vehicles and various other environmental causes celebre than the Greens ever have. I acknowledge that the Greens would LIKE to do more, but they’re a fringe party, unable to reliably crack 10% of the vote – and therefore have little power to do so.

    Until you can recognize empirical, provable reality and use it as a basis for your arguments, please stop brainlessly contradicting it. You change no minds and only embarrass yourself (further).

  9. @Boerwar:

    One Greens Socialist Party member, one vote.

    OK; one watermelon, one vote. Do the seeds get votes too, or just add weighting?

  10. Nothing wrong with XTC. Well ahead of their time ….

    My favourite parts of the XTC oeuvre were determinedly 20 years behind it. In any case, if you wanted to hurt my feelings these days, you would do better to take aim at Mark Kozelek or Courtney Barnett.

  11. For a superb metro system visit Shanghai or Beijing. Most of the lines are newish and they are continually expanding both systems.

    Signs are in Chinese and English and there are plenty of them. Most stations are underground and they have a large concourse below street level and the platform below that. The concourse is generally rectangular with various entrances/exits labelled A, B, C etc and maps of the city in the vicinity of the station.

    The Chinese excel at handling large crowds of people and even at peak hour the concourse and platforms generally don’t become excessively crowded like Town Hall in Sydney for example. Most stations now have platform edge screen doors for safety (Sydney’s metro will have these).

    In keeping with an obsession over security, each entrance to the paid area of the concourse requires you to go through a simplified form of airport security (x-ray scan of bags on conveyor belt and walk through metal detector). However I learned (like the locals) to throw my bag on the conveyor and go through the metal detector and collect my bag, without breaking stride.

  12. Re Lib-Lab, maybe consider these differences:

    – Health: Labor: believes this is a key function of Government. Will maintain and improve funding. Liberal: want to cut funds and gradually privatise
    – Education: ditto
    – Medicare: Labor will maintain and enhance, Liberal will cut back, bring in private rent-seekers and eventually dismantle
    – ABC: Labor believes is important to national life, will maintain and hopefully restore funding then improve as the Budget allows. Liberals don’t believe in public broadcasting and will cut funds and eventually shut down or privatise
    -Cimate change: Labor will address; Liberals will do nothing.
    – Environment: Labor will support, Liberals believe it’s a place to log, mine or ‘develop’. Will not allow it to get in the way of any spiv making a buck.
    – Asylum seekers: Labor will seek and implement a solution that is fair, legal, respects the integrity of our borders, respects human rights and is consistent with our international obligations. Liberals will exploit for political gain.
    – Terrorism: ditto
    – Multiculturalism: Labor supports, Liberals dogwhistle to racists
    – Infrastructure. Labor believes in nation building, liberals believe in contracts for mates
    – I could go on but you get my drift.

    Tl:dr – there’s a huge difference.

  13. More differences:

    – Privatisation: if it’s in public ownership, Liberls want to privatise it. Labor has learnt from past mistakes.
    – Pensions and Welfare: labor regards as a key function of Government and will maintain and improve as the budget allows. The Liberals regard as a burden and constantly attack recipients
    – Superannuation: Labor – retirement income; Liberals – tax dodge for the rich

  14. Courtney Barnet is just okay, but better than Alex Lahey. Smith St Band is definitely not my cup of tea.

  15. Laura Tingle on 7:30. Labor is in a mess on company tax, but will try to put this week behind it from tomorrow.

    Stan Grant – Shorten Leadershit. Tingle – “labor MPs I’ve been talking too think that labor could lose one of the byelections, but reckon Turnbull could go to a GE early because Bill’s stuffed it’.

    More Laura – “definitely a Labor stuff up, not a cunning plan”.

    Switch to QT footage of Truffles infarcting in QT with backbench looking sullen but Labor looking very relaxed.

    What do you reckon, spinner.

  16. A shard for DG

    ‘While the king was on his couch,
    my nard gave forth its fragrance.
    My beloved is to me a sachet of myrrh
    that lies between my breasts.
    My beloved is to me a cluster of henna blossoms
    in the vineyards of Engedi.’

  17. I honestly think Shorten had a rare stuff up on the company tax thing. Nothing more nothing less. Not even an intentional thing. Just misspoke.

  18. Boerwar says:
    Thursday, June 28, 2018 at 7:36 pm
    c
    What is the traffic per day?… curious.
    Chatelet Les Halles in Paris does around 750,000 a day.

    According to Wikipedia, People’s Square is Shanghai’s busiest station with 700,000 people per day. We’ve been there to stroll along the pedestrianised shopping strip that is Nanjing Road east. Three lines intersect here and it certainly was busy but you just followed the crowds to your chosen destination.

    People’s Square Station (simplified Chinese: 人民广场站; traditional Chinese: 人民廣場站; pinyin: Rénmín Guǎngchǎng Zhàn) is the name of a large interchange station of the Shanghai Metro, located below People’s Square, also next to People’s Park and Nanjing Road, in the city center of Shanghai.[1] The station is reputedly the busiest metro station in all of China, handling a daily traffic of over 700,000 passengers.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Square_station

  19. Boerwar @ #2083 Thursday, June 28th, 2018 – 5:56 pm

    A shard for DG

    ‘While the king was on his couch,
    my nard gave forth its fragrance.
    My beloved is to me a sachet of myrrh
    that lies between my breasts.
    My beloved is to me a cluster of henna blossoms
    in the vineyards of Engedi.’

    Oo-er vicar. That sounds guaranteed to rustle the banana in anyone’s pyjamas.

    BTW, “those miserable psalms” is a quote from the most Holy Of Grails when God (impersonating William Bowe) sends Arthur and his knights on their mission, vis:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZ42IMu7HIQ

  20. Stan Grant – Shorten Leadershit. Tingle – “labor MPs I’ve been talking too think that labor could lose one of the byelections, but reckon Turnbull could go to a GE early because Bill’s stuffed it’.

    Ah, the old voice of authority based on unknown words from an unknown number of unknown people.

    (edit) At least the audience numbers for 7.30 are known and they are fairly woeful.

  21. on the perennially enigmatic topic of sydney transport and esp metro

    one main ring metro, connecting north east, south east, south west and north west inner suburbs (say 50K) two harbour tunnels with sprocket lines across (cbd) and out west (say 35k) –

    same budget or bit more as current one line – bigger impact with growth potential

  22. I watched Bananas in Pyjamas today, and was disgusted by the brazenness of the anti-Labor bias.

    On the other hand, we have it on the highest authority (Newscorp columnist Piers Ackerman no less) that Peppa Pig is a communist.

  23. Bill Shorten has no excuses for making such a big and complex decision without about his party’s approach to company tax cuts without consulting his colleagues, who provided the media with multiple clips of them looking stupid and shifty when they dodged the question about consultation instead of just saying, “No, Bill said that because he gets flustered easily and he isn’t that good at thinking on his feet. We will take some time to reach a collective decision on the details of our tax policy, and while we’re at it we will scold Bill for being a bit of a goose on this occasion”

  24. It’s interesting that Murdoch’s Oz online has dropped headlines on “Shorten’s gaffe” while 7.30 keeps it alive as does Fairfax.

    Perhaps someone at News Corp agrees with Bolt’s opinion that Shorten won’t be harmed so why continue?

    Does anyone know if Newspoll will be out in the field this weekend?

  25. From today’s Crikey, some truly bizarre goings on in Dutton’s department.

    Sam (not his real name) is a seven month old baby whose parents are seeking asylum in Australia, having arrived by boat some years ago. But to the Department of Home Affairs, Sam is a “client” with an application ID and a file number. And in the Kafkaesque world of that department, Sam is treated as though he were an adult.

    Earlier this month Sam received a letter from the department. It was written by “Bill” — officers in this department rarely reveal their surname when they send bad news to migrants. “Bill” works in the “Community Status Resolution” branch of the department. The letter was not addressed to his parents, which would have been sensible since, as adults, they can read, write and comprehend. It was addressed to Sam. No need to read that again, you understood it: the letter from the department was addressed to a seven month old child.

  26. “Does anyone know if Newspoll will be out in the field this weekend?”

    Is the Pope a Catholic?

    Newspoll will have its eleventy calculator ready to adjust preference distribution as well. #killbill

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