My warning of a poll drought in the previous post hadn’t reckoned on Fairfax’s Ipsos series, which fills the void with a 53-47 result for Labor, down from 54-46 from the previous poll six weeks ago. As best as I can tell, all we have to go on at this stage is an editorial in The Age that suggests both major parties are on 35% of the primary vote, which is a two point drop for Labor and a one point drop for the Coalition. Leadership ratings and minor party primary votes will have to wait. Recent form suggests the poll will have had a sample of 1200, and been conducted Thursday to Sunday.
We also have two more federal by-election polls for the Australia Institute from ReachTEL, keeping in mind that the prestige of ReachTEL’s electorate polls have just taken a knock with the Liberals’ clear win in Darling Range. That’s all the comfort Georgina Downer can draw from its results, the latest of which gives Rebekha Sharkie her biggest lead yet in Mayo: 62-38 on two-party preferred, from primary votes (after exclusion of the 2.6% undecided) of 43.5% for Sharkie, 32.7% for Downer, 9.0% for the Greens and 8.2% for Labor.
In Longman, ReachTEL now records a 50-50 result after showing Liberal National Party candidate Trevor Ruthenberg leading Labor Section 44 victim Susan Lamb by 51-49. Primary votes after exclusion of 3.2% undecided are Labor 40.4%, LNP 36.1%, One Nation 15.2% and Greens 4.5%, so presumably One Nation’s respondent-allocated preferences are flowing solidly to the LNP. This poll was also conducted on Thursday, from a sample of 727. Full results from both polls are available here.
UPDATE: Those missing primary votes from Ipsos turn out to be 12% for the Greens, up one, and 6% for One Nation, also up one. The respondent-allocated two-party result goes the other way from the headline result, with Labor now leading 54-46, up from 53-47. Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are down on his unusually strong result last time, with approval down one to 50% and disapproval up five to 44%, while Bill Shorten is respectively up one to 40% and two to 53% (both leaders do unusually well on this metric from Ipsos). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 51-33, down from 52-32.
Richo saying Labor insiders writing off Braddon as gooooorn!
ESJ@8:32am
Yes thete is no progress in primary vote for ALP. But there is a reduction of 6% of primary vote for LNP after all the bribes to electorate and an increase of 3.5% in 2PP for ALP.
adrian @ #5957 Monday, June 25th, 2018 – 8:34 am
Yep. You can smell the hysterical despair coming of the GRASPers.
Edwina StJohn @ #48 Monday, June 25th, 2018 – 8:33 am
WTF?
MSM is still focussing on Preferred PM number. They are trying their level best to undermine ALP:
https://amp-9news-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.9news.com.au/article/9a21633d-1510-403b-8136-804ef828abe0?amp_js_v=a2&_gsa=1#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.9news.com.au%2Fnational%2F2018%2F06%2F25%2F03%2F45%2Fmalcolm-turnbull-bill-shorten-labor-liberal-coalition-ipsos-poll-vote
ESJ@8:45am
Link please
I remember Eddie Murphy’s routine rather a lot better than the film itself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMqMKxJJYvY
I preferred ‘Delerious’ to ‘Raw’
The acting archbishop of Adelaide is still firmly resisting the call for priests to report confessed child abuse instances. If these priests had an ounce of decency they would ask the kids to go outside of the confessional and repeat what they had said and then report it to the authorities. Conscience clear.
This is the last week in the @AuSenate for two Greens senators – @leerhiannon and @AndrewBartlett. When Parliament resumes after winter they’ll be replaced by @MehreenFaruqi and @larissawaters.
That’s not at all what Sportsbet is saying.
BK @ #58 Monday, June 25th, 2018 – 5:51 am
He’s just making his case for getting the gig permanently! 🙁
“Are you an old white man? If so, your Opinion is valued in the SmearStralian Opinion page – today’s episode could have been commissioned at the front bar of the local bowling club.”
I’m and old white guy. In fact I went to dinner at a Bowling Club the other day. But I don’t think they want my opinion.
The Add running against the PM is pretty apt, then see Simple Simon on sky saying it was really personal, this coming from a Grovernment that has been super personal for five years now trying with the Kill Bill thing, laughed out load, could not help myself then turned it off
Eddie is in full bloom this morning over primary votes. Bludgers can correct me if I’m wrong but hasn’t Ipsos nearly always had the primary votes for the majors about 2-3 points behind the other pollsters? If so is the 35-35 PV result really off trend? Also, even on 35%, with the Greens also polling 11% isn’t the starting point for Labor in the race for the preferences of ‘other’ voters at around 45%? Seems like Truffles still has his work cut out for him. …
Ah, another poll another tick of the clock on the Napoleon Turnbull regime’s countdown to Waterloo.
Vanessa Muller @ #63 Monday, June 25th, 2018 – 8:55 am
Yeah, $80 mill spent on a TURC over decades old matters, to verbal abuse in parliament last week and the whole Kill Bill strategy. You reap what you sow!
Why the Republicans can’t just keep bleating to old, white, uneducated men.
“Richo saying Labor insiders”….
Richo?…. Is he still alive?….
Just wait for the by-elections…. and watch that result in Mayo in particular: a true Democratic test for Political Nepotism…. Will the voters reject Downer Jr?…. and if they do, will the Waffler from Wentworth resign?
Well of course, for her it would be. She too is one of the top of the town peeps who will rake it in like Truffles..
“Ah, another poll another tick of the clock on the Napoleon Turnbull regime’s countdown to Waterloo.”…
That’s a beautiful metaphor, poroti, truly appropriate…
If they reckon the ad is personal then roll out a nice little number on The Caymans and the sort of people who use it.
I haven’t seen the Shorten/Turnbull ad. Is there a link?
Bill Shorten – and every Labor MP interviewed on the subject – should calmly point out that they would also be major beneficiaries of the tax cuts, but they are still opposing them because they are unfair.
The ALP still gets to make its point about the Government (and millionnaire Turnbull, in particular) while simultaneously looking virtuously supportive of those less well off.
Win, win.
Alpo @ #68 Monday, June 25th, 2018 – 9:02 am
Alpo
Richo is many things – many not nice, but a fool he is not. If he says Labor in trouble, best believe him or you will have a very bad night in a month.
I repeat what I was told by an insider – the vote is very soft for BOTH parties. In this case the public will swing against the silly incumbents who caused the problem. If they had owned up and quit along with Barnaby and Alexander they would be home and hosed but dithering caused them a problem.
From a link by BK @6:57 “Trump has called for undocumented immigrants to be deprived of legal rights, arguing that people who cross the border into the United States illegally must immediately be deported without trial.”
Trump wants to do what Australia already does via offshore processing.
Good point, Poroti.
If the government really want to see the gloves come off, let’s get into an in-depth discussion about how millionnaires use tax havens.
Clive Palmer is back in weasel mode, after his first tour of duty where he voted with Abbott to abolish Clean Energy measures
From guardian blog
Pauline Hanson has appeared alongside senator Derryn Hinch on Channel Seven’s Sunrise to discuss company tax – and both reveal they have been lobbied by Clive Palmerto vote for the Coalition’s package.
Both have a remarkably similar account – that Palmer said he has $450m in the bank and could take that money overseas, presumably because Australia would not be as competitive without a company tax cut.
Palmer has announced a re-launch of his party in the guise of the United Australia Party and even pinched a senator from One Nation – Brian Burston.
Hanson claimed that Palmer threatened her by saying “if you don’t back the corporate tax cuts, you won’t get our preferences”. “He’s lobbying for the government for corporate tax cuts,” she said.
Hanson said the government has not given her “any assurances they are going after multinationals to get them to pay their taxes in this country”.
Hinch explains that he wants the threshold for the company tax cut lifted from $50m to $500m, which would give 6,000 more companies a tax cut without rewarding “the robber banks”. He said Palmer had lobbied him too, which he found “insulting”.
Poroti
Personally I loved the add BUT as I have said many, many times, personal attack adds are very dangerous and often backfire.
My pessimism tells me this one will too.
I remember it commented upon at the time that Trump gave Turnbull high praise for the way Australia has dealt with asylum seekers.
He obviously decided to plagiarise that policy as well 😉
Alpo@9:02am
If LNP do not win any of the by-elections seats let alone Mayo, “the Waffler from Wentworth” will say that LNP did not hold any of the seats so nothing changed.
However, if LNP wins even one of the seats, he will say that this is the first time in almost 100 years that the government won a seat from opposition or only the second time government won a seat from opposition and ask for the resignation of Shorten.
I don’t know why Hinch is feeling insulted. The Government bought him off once which does show he’s susceptible to selling out middle income Australians and favouring the big end of town.
Palmer’s just re-working fertile ground.
Copy from last thread but since RHW is here this morning and I am genuinely very interested in the topic I am re-posting it.
Now I have has all kinds of doctors ranging from those who I suspect used me as a guinea pig in drug trials through to one who was very strongly against use of antibiotics. The latter was a truly excellent doctor but even he would prescribe antibiotics to my kids with bronchitis and for urinary tract infections.
rhwombat @ #267 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 8:24 pm
Greensborough Growler @ #1332 Sunday, June 24th, 2018 – 6:52 pm
Penicillin is a major contributor to long term liveability in humans.
Um. Wrong – and I say that as an Infectious Diseases physician. No antimicrobial save antimalarials, TB treatment and HIV has a significant effect on mortality rates. Penicillin is of use only in Streptococcal infections, and its introduction made only a minor difference in the mortality of Strep pneumoniae, the most prevalent of these infections. Puerpural sepsis and scarlet fever (which were the real causes of premature death) were overcome by hygiene measures, like hand washing, long before antimicrobials were introduced. Less than 0.1% of all antimicrobial doses given in humans (which is less than 0.1% of all antimicrobial agents given, since agricultural use is at least 3 orders of magnitude greater than human use) result in any change in clinical outcome. This is why antimicrobial resistance is now such a problem. I spend most of my professional life trying to stop the useless prescription of antimicrobials.
RHW
I bow to your expertise but that is a bloody big call!!!! The following are questions more than statements
What about blood poisoning
What about pneumonia
What about antimicrobial used in cancer treatment or for the otherwise immune suppressed
What about urinary tract infections
Meningitis?
You did OK them for Strep so I assume that also means rheumatic fever.
Note to self
If copyimg the quotes do not work!!!!
I doubt bragging about investing his millions overseas instead of in Australia is a good idea for someone wanting to relaunch their political career.
Just in case any of youse hadn’t guessed, on Sabra’s “Ask A Liberal” Show this morning our fabulous host had a succession of Libs (plus bonus Nat Deputy PM) shaking their heads sadly at how low Australian politics had sunk as a result of the introduction of grubby personal attacks into politics, to wit: those nasty Labor types daring to mention that the Prime Minister will make millions from the lowering of company and personal tax rates.
While it may be true that, according to his very own pecuniary interest statement, Malcolm Turnbull stands to gain bigly from the tax relaxation proposals, it is absolutely true that Bill Shorten never saw a business billionaire he didn’t want to play footsies with under the table, “married up” so he could swank around above his class and call the GG “Mum”, flits around in private jets, wears a cheap suit (possibly even off the rack) thus lowering the sartorial tone of Scott Morrison and the entire Parliament, and in general has questions to answer (and indeed, re-answer as long as the Libs and their media mates wish to ask them).
There is an obvious difference between Liberal slag-off campaigns and those disgusting and rather sad Labor ones: Labor slags-off take us in a race to the bottom by declaring Class Warfare (after all doesn’t the PM have the right to “have a quid”, as he put it this morning?), while Liberal ones are practically public interest disclosures, made so that the voters can know the awful truth before it’s too late.
Thank you Sabra. You’ve done the nation a great service.
In fact, now that I come to think of it, in a nation that’s about to be handed over to the spivs, corporate bandits, lurk merchants, sleeve-tuggers and trickle-down troubadors of this world, I think having a braying, bragging, boastful model of the class and his Liberal royalty spouse as the first couple in their $50 million harbourside mansion with water views of the Cayman Islands is essential to our country’s future.
Let’s see what “Bursary Boy” Bill Shorten has to say about that!
chinda63
Labor does not even have to mention Truffles. Just promise a crack down on tax havens, places where $Trillions are put by people trying to avoid paying tax either totally or reducing how much they would otherwise have paid. A peep from Truffles about such an ad would drop him in it.
daretotread. @ #74 Monday, June 25th, 2018 – 6:08 am
“owned up”?
When did they deny or try to hide their situation?
The clarity that they were not entitled to run for Parliament only occurred when the HC ruled on Gallagher.
People seem to forget that until he split with Newman Clive Palmer virtually funded the Queensland Nationals for many, many years, He ran the Joh for Canberra campaign and paid Campbell Newman a salary while he was LOTO but not in Parliament.
Why be surprised that he is supporting Turnbull’s top end of town strategies.
I did think that when the pollie (I missed his name, but I heard him shouting from three rooms away…) said wtte of “who the F*** cares about the PM’s personal wealth?” the response should have been “Obviously I do, that’s why I asked the question…”
Labor should really lay in to the way the Liberal Party is in thrall to the IPA and then get down and dirty on that shady organisation.
Marker
Bushfire
I feel that this story will bring back memories for you. Not for the treatments, but for the blame shifting and lack of action by those in charge.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/25/i-still-feel-mutilated-victims-of-disgraced-gynaecologist-emil-gayed-speak-out
The sheer gall of the born to rulers is amazing.
The pity of it is that rather than call them out, the media (if the ABC is any guide) simply repeat their talking points, day in, day out.
Isn’t private enterprise and disruptive digital economy wonderfull! And our very own ABC has uncovered this outrage..
“Australia’s biggest online doctor’s appointment booking service, HealthEngine, has funnelled hundreds of users’ private medical information to law firms seeking clients for personal injury claims.
The Perth-based startup, which is part-owned by Telstra and SevenWest Media has also been touting access to patients’ medical conditions and symptoms for targeted advertising campaigns.
The ABC has obtained secret documents from plaintiff law giant Slater and Gordon that reveal HealthEngine was passing on a daily list of prospective clients to the firm, based on their personal medical information, as part of a “referral partnership pilot” last year.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-25/healthengine-sharing-patients-information-with-lawyers/9894114
RHW, antibiotics gave us the ability to prolong lives not just by their application to bacteria desease, but they also allowed all sorts of life saving surgery that would have been a lot less successful because of post operative infection.
Malcolm, the LNP and their besties in the MSM shirty over Labor attack adds. Good. Ramp it up I say. Time to remind the punters of the strip logging in the Solomon’s, his behaviour trying to trouser Fairfax, HIH, the remarkable sale of ozemail to iiNet just before the tech bubble burst. The fact that he has left nothing behind in business as a legacy other than his wealth – which he has secreted in the most notorious tax haven on the planet.
Then switch to his political judgment, or lack there of. Cloud sedding grants to a mate. Utegate. Etc.
Before switching to his complete lack of conviction or consistency on any key policy area.
Re Swanny’s tweet:
“Turnbull and his ministers lie about Bill Shorten in the parliament day in day out, year in year out. Now they’ve got the hide to complain about personal attacks. I guess that’s just how the privileged behave.”
Watch Truffles, Scrotty and the Reichfuhrer-SS ramp up their attacks on Bill to eleventy this week. Come in spinner. Hehe
Poroti,
I agree that it would be less provocative to not mention Truffles and stick to the knitting. Best to not get hackles up, even though very tempting to get even. Stick to the ‘fairness ‘ meme and practice what we preach.
sprocket_
The medical centre that I attend encourages patients to use computer booking (Health Engine). I have used it twice and have been very circumspect about the detail I provide, being suspicious of the follow-up offering extra “services”. Very pleased to see the report, as I shall avoid the service in future and shall tell the medical centre why.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-25/healthengine-sharing-patients-information-with-lawyers/9894114