Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

After a spike to Labor a fortnight ago, it’s back to business as usual in the latest Essential Research poll, which also finds Donald Trump slightly less unpopular with Australians than he was a year ago.

Labor’s two-point gain in last fortnight’s Essential Research poll has proved to be an aberration, with the latest result snapping back to 52-48. This is matched by the primary votes, on which the Coalition is up two to 38% and Labor down two to 35% (we will have to wait for the full report later today to see how the minor parties have gone). According to The Guardian’s report, the poll also finds 50% favouring Labor’s tax policy over the Coalition, with the result for the latter not stated, except of course that it’s lower; 79% supporting the first stage of the government’s tax cuts, targeting lower and middle income earners, but only 37% for stage three, whereby the tax scales will be flattened to the advantage of higher income earners; support and opposition for company tax cuts tied at 39% apiece; support for higher finding for the ABC, though we will have to wait for hard data on which areas of the broadcaster’s activities were most favoured.

Other questions relate to international matters, with 35% responding that the North Korea summit would make the world safer, 8% less safe, and 41% no difference. On foreign leaders, Justin Trudeau (up nine on last year) and Jacinda Ardern (on debut) both scored 54% approval, and if I’m reading this correctly, Theresa May scored 42% (up nine) and Donald Trump 22% (up six) – I believe other leaders will have been canvassed as well, but further results will have to wait.

UPDATE: Full results from Essential here – the Greens are up one to 11%, and One Nation down one to 7%. Further international leadership approval ratings include a 43% for Angela Merkel, unchanged on last year, 42% for Emmanuel Macron, up one, 19% for Vladimir Putin, up three, and, if you could credit it, 9% for Kim Jong-Un. Fortuitously, this comes as the Lowy Institute publishes results of a survey of 1200 respondents on Australian attitudes to the world, which similarly finds high levels of confidence for Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron, and low ones for Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un.

Also out today is further results from the Newspoll in The Australian, finding Malcolm Turnbull favoured by 47% as best leader to handle the asylum seeker issue (down five from December) and Bill Shorten on 30% (up two). It also finds 26% expecting Labor will “improve the policy”, 37% that it will “open the floodgates”, and 24% that it will make no difference.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,271 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Heard this morning that we can expect El Nino this summer.
    So the plants that didn’t die last year can turn up their toes soon.

  2. Guytaur handed down, as if from on-high, the following:

    As for moral judgements when it comes to educating people about harm to others then some moral judgements are indeed needed.

    Society’s biggest wowsers and judgers always have an unshakeable belief in their right to morally judge others, to tell them what they think (or should be thinking), and to affix offensive labels and casual denunciations to whomever they feel like affixing them to.

    They usually express their judgements as necessary or “needed” for the “education” of their target, not as what they are: expressions of opinion from a particular point of view which has as much relevance and value as the point of view of the person they attack.

    If you disagree with them they add another sin to your portfolio: wilful ignorance of their obviously superior thinking on the subject, whatever it is.

    They stand their ground until you get sick and tired of beating your head against a brick wall and quit the argument.

    Then they claim victory, citing your silence.

    Bemused didn’t get chopped because he offended anyone here except William. William was explicit on that point. So those who feel themselves bathed in a moral glow of their own making over Bemused’s departure are having themselves on.

  3. Dolly Downer gets a unidentified mention here :

    Former Trump campaign aide George Papadopoulos will be sentenced in September

    In July 2017, the Russia-connected Papadopoulos was arrested in secret by the FBI on charges of making false statements and with obstruction of justice for misleading the FBI.

    Papadopoulos landed on the FBI’s radar after he told an Australian diplomat that Russians had stolen emails from Hillary Clinton that would harm her campaign in May 2016. The Australian tipped off the FBI which began investigating before it was publicly known that the Russians had stolen Clinton’s emails.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/06/former-trump-campaign-aide-george-papadopoulos-will-sentenced-september/

  4. Andrew Earlwood

    “Just come back from my weekly ParkRun at Chermside. Mr Shorten, of all people, was there. Was banging away on the track and he gradually came up beside me. Exchanged pleasantries. He said his goal was to break 25 minutes for the 5km.”

    That’s my winter goal as well!

    That is my goal too atm. I am hoping to build on that and do the Perth 12km City to Surf course at that speed, but that may be a bit ambitious.

    Some gratuitous advice for you…and maybe Bill: I Know from experience that the best way to improve speed over 5km is to do a shorter distance faster. If you are aiming for 5k at around 5m/km it would help to try and do 1.5km in 6.5 minutes (1 minute less than it would take at the 5km/m pace). Your times will improve more quickly than just doing 5km all the time.

  5. It’s a common problem of the political left B.B. – victory is having some declared anathama , anti- party , rightist , etc etc

    It’s inherent to the philosophy.

  6. BB

    Oh yes as if you don’t give your opinions of another poster from down on high.

    All to demean and denigrate to give my opinions less credibility.

    In this case I just said I agreed with your decision to ban Bemused and off we go with your campaign of denigration and discreditation.

    All my comments are from on high and yours are not is just BS.

    Its a campaign to have people discount my valid opinions you disagree with.

    Thats what I see you doing.

    Otherwise you would not have commented because I happened to agree with a decision you made.

  7. With all the angst about Trump and deportation a reminder of who set it up for him. This is from 3 years ago. Similar warnings were made about the domestic spying law changes Obama made and the fears for what they will allow a Trump to do.

    The Deportation Machine Obama Built for President Trump
    Before the end of his first term in office, the Obama administration expanded a small program by about 3,600 percent.

    When he leaves office he will leave behind to his successor the most sophisticated and well-funded human-expulsion machine in the history of the country. ………………….Operation Streamline, which tries up to 70 people per day in a cattle line of sentences. The experiment went from three jurisdictions in 2008 to every single border sector except California by 2010. From the time of its invention in 2005 to just four years later in 2009, Streamline sent over 209,000 individuals to serve federal prison sentences for no reason other than crossing the border.

    https://www.thenation.com/article/the-deportation-machine-obama-built-for-president-trump/

  8. It’s a common problem of the political left B.B. – victory is having some declared anathama , anti- party , rightist , etc etc

    It’s inherent to the philosophy.

    Identifying “the other” is a very human thing to do. It is not specific to any particular ideology. Just listen to the Coalition constantly harping on about the left, being un-Australian, etc.

  9. The Right does its fair share of judging too.

    Probably it’s simply a common human tendency, rather than the result of any particular ideology.

  10. Lest my comments be misconstrued, I agree with WB’s moderation of this blog and I think his banning of a certain person was appropriate.

  11. A well informed commentary on the state of play in the Greens…

    ‘In 1985, Rhiannon wrote to her parents gushing about hearing U.S. Communist Party leader Angela Davis speak at a United Nations conference in Nairobi. “Listening to her must be one of the best assets for the international communist movement,” she wrote.

    Rhiannon had already lost her number one pre-selection spot on the NSW Senate ticket in November of last year.

    This followed an unprecedented dispute with her fellow Greens senators over the Gonski 2.0 funding package, during leader Richard Di Natale’s attempt to negotiate with the Turnbull Government to get it through.

    For a while Senator Rhiannon was expelled from the Greens party room.

    Rhiannon had authorised a leaflet that claimed that the Turnbull Government’s plan would strip funding from public schools, which her colleagues said undermined their negotiations.

    With Rhiannon gone, the Greens are embracing a senator who appears to be a conventional mainstream environmentalist, but who brings with her some multicultural credentials too.

    The Greens remain confused about their direction.

    Former leader Bob Brown, who was passionate about the environment, knew it was the perfect recruiting tool for young activists and fund-raising. For a long time it was a proven method of electoral success.

    Di Natale has been more mainstream in his views, and originally more willing to seek compromise with the Government.

    But with Labor lurching to the left on economics and trade unionism, the Greens have suffered an electoral slump, forcing Di Natale to chase more radical policies such as decriminalisation of drugs.

    Dr Faruqi is unlikely to bring much to the Greens apart from ticking a number of progressive-left boxes, confirming that the Greens are on the right side of virtue (or virtue signalling, at least).

    But the Greens’ continued inability to connect with mainstream Australia or to come up with a set of policies that are anything more than virtue signalling means they have nowhere forward.

    Rhiannon was a known quantity, and thus a known danger: an internationalist who wanted to link up with her socialist comrades around the world.

    The rest of the Greens are more opportunistic, wanting to capitalise on every progressive trend going without any constructive policies.’

    http://www.newsweekly.com.au/nwmobile/article.php?id=58118

  12. Greensborough Growler says:
    Saturday, June 23, 2018 at 12:07 pm
    Darn @ #2881 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 12:01 pm

    briefly says:
    Saturday, June 23, 2018 at 9:30 am
    No-one has been buried. A skinhead has been ex-communicated. Excellent. The skinhead passed at least the last 8 years contriving insults, slurs, sledging asides, fake arguments and rancid whinges directed against confessions, z, cat, puff and numerous others, almost on a minute-by-minute basis. A completely obtuse and frankly obnoxious and sexist belligerent has been excluded. I hope it’s permanent.

    Briefly

    You probably don’t realise it but that is a perfect example of the kind of name calling and abusive language we could well do without here.

    Why don’t you give it a rest.

    No one has appointed you blackboard monitor for the blog.

    You’ve made a series of assertions about the nature of PB over the last day or so. However, I can assure you that robust discourse will continue whether it is to your tastes or not.

    GG

    It was not me who decided that nasty name calling and abusive language had to stop here. It was William and I totally support him in that. I had been arguing for a stop to be put to it for a long time so it’s hardly surprising that I would be commenting on it now.

    As for ‘robust discourse’ there is plenty of scope for it here without descending into that other kind of stuff.

  13. ESJ,

    If I had been a Labor pary member voting for leader with options of Shorten and Albanese, I would have ticked ‘seek other candidte’ (yes, i realise that option would not have been on the ballot paper).

  14. BB

    I also should point out I don’t have a moral high glow from Bemused being banned.

    As you yourself just repeated this is William’s blog and its his decision.

    Not mine not yours.

  15. Steve777 @ #2882 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 12:02 pm

    “I had to comment today because of a segment I just saw on ABC 24

    I have a question for Labor. When does running the LNP talking points on tax[payers’ money?] uninterrupted become a campaign advertisement?”

    I didn’t see the report, but I have had concerns about ABC news reports (radio and TV) in recent times. Government press releases seem to be being read verbatim. So reports are declaring that the Government is ‘slashing’ tax rates, that the lower taxes will create jobs, etc. The former is a matter of interpretation best left to the listener, while the latter, presented as fact, is disputed not only by the Opposition but by experts. They should say something like “the Minister says that these tax cuts will create more jobs” or similar.

    The Government has decided that the ABC must act as an additional mouthpiece for the Government (the others being Newscrap outlets) until conditions are right to get on with item 20 on the IPA’s wish list.

    And the ABC pathetically complies. Either their journalists/producers have no backbone or are LNP ideologues.

    Or possibly both.

  16. Steve777 @ #2882 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 12:02 pm

    I didn’t see the report, but I have had concerns about ABC news reports (radio and TV) in recent times. Government press releases seem to be being read verbatim. So reports are declaring that the Government is ‘slashing’ tax rates, that the lower taxes will create jobs, etc. The former is a matter of interpretation best left to the listener, while the latter, presented as fact, is disputed not only by the Opposition but by experts. They should say something like “the Minister says that these tax cuts will create more jobs” or similar.

    The Government has decided that the ABC must act as an additional mouthpiece for the Government (the others being Newscrap outlets) until conditions are right to get on with item 20 on the IPA’s wish list.

    I rarely listen to the radio, except in the car. Yesterday, around midday, they replayed (I think it was a replay) an interview with Turnbull, along the lines

    Male ABC sycophant: Mr Turnbull, you have a glow about you today. (Glow, FFS)

    Turnbull: Oh, terrific. (I’m terrific I am)

    Male ABC sycophant: The Govt has had a big success with passing tax deductions for lower and middle income earners …. (Not a word about the big income earners, not a mention of time scales, not a question about the cost to the community of revenue lost, nothing about a deal with the devil woman, zip, nada, nyet)

  17. Darn @ #2919 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 12:36 pm

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Saturday, June 23, 2018 at 12:07 pm
    Darn @ #2881 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 12:01 pm

    briefly says:
    Saturday, June 23, 2018 at 9:30 am
    No-one has been buried. A skinhead has been ex-communicated. Excellent. The skinhead passed at least the last 8 years contriving insults, slurs, sledging asides, fake arguments and rancid whinges directed against confessions, z, cat, puff and numerous others, almost on a minute-by-minute basis. A completely obtuse and frankly obnoxious and sexist belligerent has been excluded. I hope it’s permanent.

    Briefly

    You probably don’t realise it but that is a perfect example of the kind of name calling and abusive language we could well do without here.

    Why don’t you give it a rest.

    No one has appointed you blackboard monitor for the blog.

    You’ve made a series of assertions about the nature of PB over the last day or so. However, I can assure you that robust discourse will continue whether it is to your tastes or not.

    GG

    It was not me who decided that nasty name calling and abusive language had to stop here. It was William and I totally support him in that. I had been arguing for a stop to be put to it for a long time so it’s hardly surprising that I would be commenting on it now.

    As for ‘robust discourse’ there is plenty of scope for it here without descending into that other kind of stuff.

    You’re one of those people that know all the rules but don’t know how the game is played.

    You should get yourself a big box of tissues. You’re going to need it.

  18. Bemused will be happy – all this talk about him.

    Most of his behaviours were rather pathetic attention seeking – familiar to most teachers.

  19. But the Greens’ continued inability to connect with mainstream Australia or to come up with a set of policies that are anything more than virtue signalling means they have nowhere forward.

    Except carping, sniping and whingeing.

  20. Sprocket ~ @ #2917 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 12:33 pm

    With Rhiannon gone, the Greens are embracing a senator who appears to be a conventional mainstream environmentalist, but who brings with her some multicultural credentials too.

    The Greens remain confused about their direction.

    Former leader Bob Brown, who was passionate about the environment, knew it was the perfect recruiting tool for young activists and fund-raising. For a long time it was a proven method of electoral success.

    Good article. If the Greens ever return to being a true environmental party, their fortunes should recover. I don’t really know whether this would be a good thing for Labor or not, but it would certainly improve the quality of the environmental debate in this country if there was at least one party that had credible and consistent environmental policies ‘front and centre’.

    I might even consider giving them my second preference.

  21. Some behaviours that I believe led us to this point, could do with a little examination, and are still being exhibited today (though to a lesser extent, and not in an as unfortunate a combination with other behaviours, than previously exhibited):

    – Refusal to examine own behaviour (e.g. suggestions that others should “toughen up”).
    – Unwillingness to let go and move on.
    – Desire to have the last word.
    – Overvaluing one’s own 2c.
    – Commentary on persons rather than issues (or when the issue is behaviour, commentary on persons rather than behaviour).
    – Little reflection on how behaviours (over a period of time or as a group) can build up or combine in undesirable ways.
    – Little reflection on how one’s own behaviour (over a period of time or as a group) appears from others’ perspectives.

    And in the interests of taking my own advice and after a little reflection and self-examination, I’ve decided I’ve exhausted my 2c and, following this post, am moving on :-P.

  22. You’re one of those people that know all the rules but don’t know how the game is played.

    You should get yourself a big box of tissues. You’re going to need it.

    You’re just being a bit silly now GG. If you want to use that metaphor, it’s the umpire who interprets and enforces the rules not the players and on this blog the umpire is William. If you have a problem with that take it up with him.

  23. Darn @ #2935 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 12:52 pm

    You’re one of those people that know all the rules but don’t know how the game is played.

    You should get yourself a big box of tissues. You’re going to need it.

    You’re just being a bit silly now GG. If you want to use that metaphor, it’s the umpire who interprets and enforces the rules not the players and on this blog the umpire is William. If you have a problem with that take it up with him.

    That’s one tissue gone!

  24. Cute how many posters are crying out, “Don’t say nasty things about bemused!” who were, apparently, quite happy to let bemused say nasty things about others.

    zoom, we’d never learn anything if we let hypocrisy stop us. We’re all sitting in the mud trying to push each other out of it :P.

  25. @jolyon

    “That is my goal too atm. I am hoping to build on that and do the Perth 12km City to Surf course at that speed, but that may be a bit ambitious.

    Some gratuitous advice for you…and maybe Bill: I Know from experience that the best way to improve speed over 5km is to do a shorter distance faster. If you are aiming for 5k at around 5m/km it would help to try and do 1.5km in 6.5 minutes (1 minute less than it would take at the 5km/m pace). Your times will improve more quickly than just doing 5km all the time.”

    I’m actually having a 2 week break after Cairns Ironman. Variable speed workouts are nothing new for me.

    For me the calculus will be determined by 3 variables:

    Weight (92kg presently, way too much for someone 176cm tall)
    Age -49 going on 50 (eek)
    Injury management (related to the above 2 variables, no doubt). At the moment I am managing 3 seperate niggles in different parts of my body. Two are swimming related, one is running related.

    Skinny, younger me (23yo and under 80kg) was good for a 5km in around 18 minutes. An older slightly more trim version of me (say 84-5kg) should still be good for something around 21 minutes.

    I start running again tomorrow so I have 10 weeks to be down below 90kg and below 25minutes for my local park run before spring time on my way to getting under 85kg before I turn the big 5-0 in January.

  26. DisplayName @ #2940 Saturday, June 23rd, 2018 – 12:55 pm

    Cute how many posters are crying out, “Don’t say nasty things about bemused!” who were, apparently, quite happy to let bemused say nasty things about others.

    zoom, we’d never learn anything if we let hypocrisy stop us. We’re all sitting in the mud trying to push each other out of it :P.

    or in!

  27. Andrew Earlwood

    Thanks for that advice. Must have been good running into Bill (no pun intended)

    I don’t run but do walks and I am sure the shorter faster will work with outdoor walking too. 🙂

  28. Darn, you’re gloating.

    William chopped Bemused specifically for personal reasons, not because of your or anyone else’s hurt feelings or sense of outrage.

    If Bemused was going to be sacked for insulting others he would have disappeared 10 years ago.

    I think that is what GG is trying to say in an indirect sort of way.

  29. Display Name

    I actually spent more time talking about bemused than I intended.

    My initial tweet about the ABC was my intention for discussion today.

  30. @Joloyn-

    Further to my reply above:

    the variable speed you suggest (effectly running at ~40 seconds per kilometre faster than your target pace for 1.5km is too much. If you can run that fast for 1.5km you should be aiming for around 22:30 for 5km. In my experience I recommend doing Long intervals (anywhere from 500M to 2km efforts depending on your base and strength) at between 10-15 seconds faster than target pace. Shorter intervals (100-400M) can be run at about the pace difference you suggest.

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