Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Newspoll returns after three weeks to find the situation all but totally unchanged.

One Nation are off two points on the primary vote, from 8% to 6%, but the latest Newspoll is otherwise as dull as it gets. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is unchanged at 52-48, both major parties are unchanged at 38% on the primary vote, the Greens are up one to 10%. Malcolm Turnbull is up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 40% and 50% respectively; Bill Shorten is down one to 33% and steady on 55%. Turnbull leads 46-31 on preferred prime minister, compared with 47-30 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday, presumably from a sample of about 1600.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

891 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 17 of 18
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  1. Zeh,

    You are correct, of course. I was about to go to bed when the Fat Lady turned up and started slinging gratuitous personal insults about, entering into a conversation that had absolutely nothing to do with her.

    To a pharmacist the solution to everything looks like a pill. Call it a mindset.

    Fair dinkum, go back over the posts, my beef was with Confessions who can give and take with the best of them. Good for her!

    The intervention from the Gosford Godzilla was completely unwarranted, uninvited and irrelevant. The escalation into personal matters was utterly uncalled for an gratuitous, but it does serve to illustrate why so many men get so fucked off by women like her. She gives the female gender a bad name.

    She just thought she’d get a dig in against old Bushfire while the going was good. A quick kick in the goolies while no-one was looking.

    It’s all over a matter of vanishing triviality that happened years ago, and should not be important anywhere but in a similarly trivial and almost microscopically tiny mind obsessed with settling scores… over, and over and over again.

    She just can’t help herself.

    I challenge anyone (if they could give a fig, which is unlikely) to see where I even mentioned C@tmomma’s name, referred to her obliquely, hinted, suggested or even nuanced in the general direction of her in order to justify the snarky remarks she uttered, and then amplified into the ridiculous.

  2. Let’s be honest, the murder of Eurydice Dixon is a tragic event. But, just as nothing changed after the murder of Jill Meagher (and please correct me if I’m wrong), I doubt anything will change now. Everyone can argue about whether a man or men are at fault with the only result being people digging in to defend their position and the atmosphere here getting hotter than our climate if CO2 reaches 1400ppm.

    Over the next two weeks the Coalition will attempt to push through Parliament changes to tax rates that will potentially increase inequality and massively redistribute income to the well off. Given the parlous state of our budget, I’m not sure these tax changes are sustainable. I wonder if the Coalition understand that and are just trying to “starve the beast” as the Americans would say, or if they’re trying to look after themselves and their big end of town. Maybe they even believe their rhetoric.

    We have a Senate cross bench that can probably be called interesting (as in the Chinese curse) so who knows how it will turn out. From what I gather, several of the cross bench will support splitting the bill if the numbers are there. If not then they may vote for the cuts in full.

    This poses a dilemma for the ALP, which I’m sure the Coalition planned on. If there are insufficient votes to split the bill in the Senate, then does the ALP vote for or against the bill? IIRC, the last time they voted against tax cuts, arguing that they favoured the rich, it really hurt them in the polls. It would certainly give the Coalition something to attack Labor on. On the other hand, if they allowed the full tax cuts through arguing that they would fix them when in office the Coalition would go into the next election arguing that Labor wanted to raise taxes.

    The question is what will the Greens do? The Greens have said that they oppose tax cuts. That’s not an unreasonable position if you are arguing that the Government needs to spend more on services. However, what happens if they follow through with their position and refuse to support splitting the bill (actually amending it to remove the later tax cuts)? In that case the amendments will fail and, given what I have typed above, the bill might well pass. In that case the Greens, through their intransigence, will have helped bring about that which they claim to oppose.

    All of this is playing out as we have by-elections in four states.

    Interesting times in politics at the moment.

  3. “A good example of how our Muslim , Aboriginal fellow citizens must feel when the few spoil it for the rest.
    As a Catholic, I remember feeling extremely defensive and ashamed when the IRA were terrorising the UK.”

    Although as a nominal Catholic with an Irish surname, it was never demanded of me to apologise for the IRA nor denounce its every atrocity, nor were shoutback radio, the tabloid press and right wing politicians demanding that Catholics do so. No one assumed that I was a terrorist or a supporter of terrorism, so the situation was a bit different from that faced by Muslims today.

  4. Further to Ratsak… I wish you’d been here earlier.

    We males have been accused tonight of being everything from natural rapists to poor bastards who can’t get an erection without Viagra.

    Perfectly reasonable comment from fathers of daughters have been dissed as excuse-making from the ranks of victim blamers.

    Expressions of mere regret at the death of Ms Dixon, without the required laying out of a complete syllabus for the reformation of the male gender have been mocked as too little, too late.

    Expressions of frustration and anger from men at being labelled so casually as congenital predators and murderers have been interpreted as proof enough that they have something to hide in their dark past.

    We can be thankful for one thing: at least the attacker was white, and not a Somali. God help us all if he had been black.

  5. Bc
    There were a few changes after Meagher policing wise.
    CCTV became more accepted and widespread, and the parole board criteria were toughened up. The parole system let Meagher and society down horribly.

  6. Back to some good old turnbull bashing to unite the faithful ?

    Notice how bill brings us the light while malcy shields us from it.
    (I wonder if Bill was actually conscious of the framing)

  7. So telling men you want us to accept responsibility by joining with you politically to demand said resources from government even when they try and bribe us with tax cuts? Sure, can do. Glad to.

    Telling men they need to take responsibility and you know not be so rapey and murdery – not so much use.

    Wow. Shorter Old White Male: we’re happy to pony up for the easy gigs of accepting tax cuts and standing alongside women when we can blame government for not pulling its weight.

    But the hard yards of taking responsibility and calling our own out for raping and murdering women? Not so much. That’s too much like hard work when we can simply stand on the sidelines and shout about what freakin’ victims we all are.

  8. “The question is what will the Greens do?”

    Thank the doGs above! politics yay!!

    I hope the Greens vote to split the bill, pass the first, consider the second, and reject the third round. Although i’m not fussed so long as the bill is split, first personal cuts passed and company tax cuts scuppered.

    Hopefull the govt loses this one big time. Better for the economy and better for getting the Libs chucked.

  9. We males have been accused tonight of being everything from natural rapists to poor bastards who can’t get an erection without Viagra.

    Jesus.

    I’ve been here tonight and can state categorically that none of you have been accused of such things.

    Drama much?

  10. Oh well, boys will be boys…

    Feathers fly as police arrive to find people fleeing scene of Liberal brawl
    A meeting of Liberals over charcoal chicken and kebabs in Sydney ended abruptly when police were called to deal with a brawl that broke out over a factional bunfight, leaving one man in hospital.

    Police said they were called to Naji’s Charcoal Chicken & Kebabs eatery on Firth Street in Arncliffe just after seven o’clock on Monday night, following reports of a “brawl”. The roast chook shop is owned by Michael Nagi, a Liberal councillor for Bayside Council.

    The meeting is understood to have turned ugly after an attempt by the moderate faction, which includes Nagi, to allow into the Bayside branch a nearby area, Earlwood, which is controlled by the moderates and has never been a part of the Bayside branch.

    What? No Crowe-style “This is what is wrong with Australian politics”?, or Hartcher-speak such as “Liberal thugs say ‘No’ in ugly factional brawl”?

    Nah, just a stoush over chicken kebabs. They’ll sort it out among themselves.

    Sell the ABC? Preposterous! National conference? You’re joking aren’t you? Shit fight at Arncliffe? Please… just the lads letting off some steam, not like those nasty CFMMEU people, or Bill Shorten.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/feathers-fly-as-police-arrive-to-find-people-fleeing-scene-of-liberal-brawl-20180618-p4zm9i.html

  11. I’ve been here tonight and can state categorically that none of you have been accused of such things.

    On rapists, please read your own comments.

    On Viagra, please read C@tmomma’s comments.

  12. Why am I responsible for someone else’s actions. I can advise said person and give as much support as possible. But how can I be ultimately responsible?
    Nearly 4billion males on earth, that’s a lot for me to keep tabs on.

  13. Bushfire Bill @ #796 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 11:29 pm

    Zeh,

    You are correct, of course. I was about to go to bed when the Fat Lady turned up and started slinging gratuitous personal insults about, entering into a conversation that had absolutely nothing to do with her.

    To a pharmacist the solution to everything looks like a pill. Call it a mindset.

    Fair dinkum, go back over the posts, my beef was with Confessions who can give and take with the best of them. Good for her!

    The intervention from the Gosford Godzilla was completely unwarranted, uninvited and irrelevant. The escalation into personal matters was utterly uncalled for an gratuitous, but it does serve to illustrate why so many men get so fucked off by women like her. She gives the female gender a bad name.

    She just thought she’d get a dig in against old Bushfire while the going was good. A quick kick in the goolies while no-one was looking.

    It’s all over a matter of vanishing triviality that happened years ago, and should not be important anywhere but in a similarly trivial and almost microscopically tiny mind obsessed with settling scores… over, and over and over again.

    She just can’t help herself.

    I challenge anyone (if they could give a fig, which is unlikely) to see where I even mentioned C@tmomma’s name, referred to her obliquely, hinted, suggested or even nuanced in the general direction of her in order to justify the snarky remarks she uttered, and then amplified into the ridiculous.

    *sigh*

    I could simply say, ‘I rest my case’, however, the juvenile name-calling and assumptions implicit amid the vitriol deserve a response.

    1. I don’t know where there is a rule that says you can’t comment on something that someone has written that you find offensive and abhorrent? Which is all that I did initially. That the comment came from someone who is now becoming known for slagging off certain women on this blog in an increasingly puerile and puss-filled way, was to be expected I suppose, but it wasn’t going to stop me saying something. I don’t know why I should.

    Also, I wasn’t commenting about something you said to Confessions, Bushfire Bill, I was commenting about something you said about Eurydice Dixon.

    Nevertheless, if I wish to comment about the way you got all Trumpy grumpy in all caps towards Confessions, I will. No matter what sort of sleazy public put-downs you come up with and spit in my direction.

    Oh, and you can put your truck load of blue pills away. I have standards, and you don’t meet them. Not by a long stretch.

  14. I mean it would be so much easier if men were just controlled remotely by female pilots.
    I wonder if male fleshbot vs woman violence would even decrease at all though.

  15. And you missed the earlier part. The mere suggestion that changing the language involved in imploring men to help where and how they can, so that is was less “blamey” of all men for the actions of a few, because it often put off exactly the type of men that the cause needs to recruit in order to be successful, was somehow wrong.

    I couldn’t follow why altering some inessential terms used to describe the problem, so that it would be more appealing to the precise cohort of people who can enact the changes being called for, as identified by many women and experts in the field, was itself a problem.

    This wasn’t “men” being sensitive. It was men (or at least I think it was mainly men) trying to be constructive – perhaps giving some insight into how more men might be brought into the discussion, rather than being put off by it.

    Also, DTT, good points on mental health services above.

  16. imacca @ #807 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 8:49 pm

    “The question is what will the Greens do?”

    Thank the doGs above! politics yay!!

    I hope the Greens vote to split the bill, pass the first, consider the second, and reject the third round. Although i’m not fussed so long as the bill is split, first personal cuts passed and company tax cuts scuppered.

    Hopefull the govt loses this one big time. Better for the economy and better for getting the Libs chucked.

    The point is that the Greens don’t even need to support the cuts when it’s split.

    The low income rebate will get up as everyone except the Greens support this one, while the other two are more doubtful.

    If they don’t split then there is a chance that it will all pass despite Labor Green opposition.

  17. But the hard yards of taking responsibility and calling our own out for raping and murdering women? Not so much. That’s too much like hard work when we can simply stand on the sidelines and shout about what freakin’ victims we all are.

    What the fuck do you want men to say, Confessions?

    That they think rape is bad?

    OK: rape is bad.

    Murder is abominable?

    OK: Murder is abominable.

    Men who commit such crimes are rotten and malignant?

    OK: Yep, they are the pits, as low as you can go.

    What’s the hard work?

    Oh, try this: go and light a candle in Brunswick Park. THAT will solve the rape problem. Why didn’t we think of that before? All those thousand of years and no-one came up with the perfect solution.

    Wait a minute: What if I tell my grandsons it’s not good to rape someone? Maybe that’ll stop it! Nope, the man who seems to have killed Eurydice was a grandson and he raped and murdered someone. Do we think his father and mother told him it was OK to do so?

    Satisfied?

  18. On rapists, please read your own comments.

    I don’t need to read my own comments. If you are taking offence at population level observations that women overwhelmingly bear the burden of sexual violence and that addressing this needs men on board, then that’s your problem. Not mine.

  19. Zeh @ #813 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 8:58 pm

    I mean it would be so much easier if men were just remote controlled remotely by female pilots.
    I wonder if male fleshbot vs woman violence would even decrease at all though.

    Not sure, the fembots were pretty nasty!!

    Would they be anything like them?

    Or maybe an Amazonian Society? 🙂

  20. Diogenes @ #785 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 11:03 pm

    Dtt
    The research shows people with ASD are no more likely to commit murder than others.

    Dio

    I was not trying to get into a debate about the types of mental illness etc. If the murderer does indeed have ASD, then he may have had other disorders also.I do not know. However I think we must FIRST consider mental illness as the culprit before we assume it is maleness.

  21. You’ve got to love the double standards as well.

    Apparently it’s okay to call me ‘Fat’ and the ‘Gosford Godzilla’, plus use my real name without my permission on a public blog, not to mention piss all over my parenting skills and my children, but dare to suggest that an old, white male has erection problems, and you transform in an instant into the lowest scum of the earth.
    Nothing is worse.

    *sigh*

  22. Satisfied?

    Nope.

    For as long as you continue to do blokey good ole boy culture on this (‘jeez confessions, this is your baby not mine, after all what the hell do you want ME to do’) I’ll be there to remind you that as a man you have a responsibility to break down the culture around violence against women.

  23. We have two groups in this scene. Women, and men. Men are killing women. Women are getting killed by men.

    I do not like being in the prey group, women. Some men object to being recognised as being in the predator group, men.

    You may not not exhibit the behaviours of your group. Fair enough. But a member of that group you are.

    I am sure as fuck I don’t want to be prey but I do not get a choice. That depends on whether men chose to attack me. It is out of my hands. The best I can do is try to be invisible or take self defence classes.

    Men get a choice. Will I kill that woman or not? Will i attend a rally or advocate for the safe of females? Will i twiddle my thumbs because it is not one of my females or one I know getting hurt?

    Is it enough that I do not personally kill women?

    I have the outrage of being seen as a good prospect for a male to kill, just because i am in the group called women. I do not get a choice.

    We have men on PB who have the outrage of being seen belonging to the group called men. The group that kills women. You do not get choice. you belong to it.

    So men and women have some equality. We both are members of a social group that imposes attributes.

    Women get killed, for being women.

    Men get accused of killing women, for being men.

    It is tough being a man.

  24. Also, it’s sad that old men like Bushfire Bill don’t get why the vigil in the park tonight was important. That he can’t see that if we don’t do things like that as a society then we just end up like America after yet another mass shooting. Couldn’t care less.

  25. You’re as bad as each other in my opinion. Both defensive of the kids under your care. But the little respect you have of each other and the other’s kids is pretty self evident

    Dare I say, shock horror, you are both human.

    Also the internet does not seek your permission.

    That aside, I agree with Lu regarding how you should be engaging males on this issue. Overtly combative language, generalisations, implications and trying to guilt otherwise supportive males is only going to have the opposite effect you desire.
    I must say it’s putting me right off commenting at all on this issue now and in the future here.

  26. Confessions @ #820 Tuesday, June 19th, 2018 – 12:07 am

    Satisfied?

    Nope.

    For as long as you continue to do blokey good ole boy culture on this (‘jeez confessions, this is your baby not mine, after all what the hell do you want ME to do’) I’ll be there to remind you that as a man you have a responsibility to break down the culture around violence against women.

    And stop abusing them on a public blog.

    Which he was the first one to do that. Not the women.

  27. Oh and women get raped and murdered going about their business and the old white male response to women pushing back for some kind of peer responsibility is to say ‘go light a candle’.

    That says it all about where we are now.

  28. Fess,

    But the hard yards of taking responsibility and calling our own out for raping and murdering women? Not so much. That’s too much like hard work when we can simply stand on the sidelines and shout about what freakin’ victims we all are.

    You understand that’s a lot of men see that as a fairly offensive statement? Suggesting that we don’t do this? That we are some how facilitators of violence against women?

    No doubt some men are, but ffs, how about you put some thought into how you are going to get more men to help out, because that is a necessary component of any substantial improvement in affairs. From my point of view, as a fairly rational leftish mid-30s white male trying to encourage other reasonable men to even think about the issues, statements like those above are self-defeating.

  29. I never had any sympathy with the “Men As Victims” brigade until some of I read some of the recent shit that’s been so easily cast about in this blog recently.

    I’ve had guys whinge to me about their bad divorces; about how the whole system was rigged against them.

    I just shrugged it off. In one ear and out the other. Don’t take up with a mistress mate, and your wife might trust you. There’s a plan.

    I’ve had Army types go on about the femo-Nazis in the Defence forces. Stop being a sexist jerk and they might let up on you, pal.

    But lately I’ve seen the male gender lumped with a collective responsibility for crimes that happened thousands of kilometres away to people they didn’t know, and couldn’t be expected to particularly care about by any fanciful stretch of the imagination.

    Apparently if we tell our sons and grandsons not to rape women, and not to murder them, this will stop the rot, cold.

    As if we haven’t done exactly that, in deed as well as in word.

    Yet still the accusations persist. Somehow all men have to take collective responsibility for the murder of women, anywhere, anytime. If we baulk, object, get pissed off at the narky accusations, there’s something we’re hiding, or we’re old white men, past our prime, immured in the past, unable to see past our sexist upbringings, fossils in God’s waiting room.

  30. Anyway, it’s after midnight here. So I must to bed so that ‘Godzilla’ might wake up tomorrow morning after her beauty sleep and not be so ugly and fat. Here’s hoping! 🙂

  31. Puffytmd I reject that simplistic view.
    Prey group, seriously? It was pointed out that 4 times more men are killed than women (by men mostly sure, but irrelevant).
    So are men not then more likely to be ‘prey’?
    The gender of the perpetrator is skewed sure, but victims?
    Whose campaigning against man vs man violence with the same vitriol?

  32. “and you transform in an instant into the lowest scum of the earth.”

    I thought that was Tony Abbott’s superpower??


  33. Also, it’s sad that old men like Bushfire Bill don’t get why the vigil in the park tonight was important. That he can’t see that if we don’t do things like that as a society then we just end up like America after yet another mass shooting. Couldn’t care less.

    That is a ridiculous argument.

    They do fuckloads of vigils in the USA. It’s devastating that they have such regular reasons to.

    Doesn’t seem to have helped gun violence though, does it?

  34. Anyway, it’s after midnight here. So I must to bed so that ‘Godzilla’ might wake up tomorrow morning after her beauty sleep and not be so ugly and fat. Here’s hoping!

    In the morning I will wake up sober. But you will still be ugly and fat.

    * And before anyone says that’s sexist, she brought up the whole Viagra thing.

  35. Barney in Go Dau says Tuesday, June 19, 2018 at 12:00 am

    The point is that the Greens don’t even need to support the cuts when it’s split.

    The low income rebate will get up as everyone except the Greens support this one, while the other two are more doubtful.

    If they don’t split then there is a chance that it will all pass despite Labor Green opposition.

    To “split” the bill, the Greens need to support the amendments. If the amendments to remove the other tax cuts are approved, then the Greens can potentially vote against the bill. That then poses a dilemma for the Coalition. Do they then vote down tax cuts?

    If the Greens want to be holier than thou and vote against the amendments then the full tax cuts will likely pass.

  36. That’s Tony Abbott’s steady-state
    His superpower are those moments of brief humanity, despite himself.

    🙂 True. Makes more sense that way.

  37. LU not logged in @ #832 Tuesday, June 19th, 2018 – 12:22 am


    Also, it’s sad that old men like Bushfire Bill don’t get why the vigil in the park tonight was important. That he can’t see that if we don’t do things like that as a society then we just end up like America after yet another mass shooting. Couldn’t care less.

    That is a ridiculous argument.

    They do fuckloads of vigils in the USA. It’s devastating that they have such regular reasons to.

    Doesn’t seem to have helped gun violence though, does it?

    So you would rather we never had them?

    Which was my point. Without them, all you have is a society that doesn’t ever pause to reflect.

    And I know a bleedin’ vigil isn’t, in and of itself, going to change things! Sheesh! I’m not the ignoramus some here would have you believe! I was simply trying to make a meta point. That is, without them society just becomes that little bit more coarse and couldn’t care less.

  38. Anyway, I just popped back to put this up before I hit the sack:

    Chris Bowen has released correspondence between himself and the Treasury secretary, John Fraser.

    Bowen wrote to Fraser this morning after reading in The Australian that Treasury analysis had found that Labor’s dividend imputation policy will raise $10bn less over a decade than Labor believes ($45.8bn rather than $55.7bn).

    Bowen wanted to know if Treasury had modelled Labor’s dividend imputation policy.

    As you can see from the correspondence below, Fraser’s response was a little ambiguous.

    Two points to note.

    Bowen asked Fraser if Treasury was asked to provide costing advice on Labor’s dividend imputation policy

    Fraser replied: “We were asked by the government to cost a policy relating to the denial of refundability of franking credits to certain entities.”

    See how Fraser said “a policy” rather than “Labor’s policy”?

    Bowen also asked Fraser what assumptions Treasury had made in its analysis, and Fraser replied: “In deriving the costing, a number of assumptions were made around the expected growth in franking credits and expected behavioural responses by individuals, SMSF holders and Apra funds.”

    That is a politician’s answer, not the answer of someone who is being forthcoming.

    That was from Gareth Hutchens at The Guardian.

  39. Which was my point. Without them, all you have is a society that doesn’t ever pause to reflect.

    You were suggesting that people in the US don’t do this. They most certainly do.

    It has done not very much, at best.

  40. And now for some good news (apologies if this has already been posted).

    Explosive letter reveals One Nation may be in breach of electoral laws: https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/federal/explosive-letter-reveals-one-nation-may-be-in-breach-of-electoral-laws-20180618-p4zm8m.html

    Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is at risk of breaching electoral laws by using a structure that runs state branches by “remote control” from Queensland, according to an explosive letter that reveals growing pressure inside the troubled party.

  41. Bushfire Bill @ #834 Tuesday, June 19th, 2018 – 12:26 am

    Anyway, it’s after midnight here. So I must to bed so that ‘Godzilla’ might wake up tomorrow morning after her beauty sleep and not be so ugly and fat. Here’s hoping!

    In the morning I will wake up sober. But you will still be ugly and fat.

    Take LU’s advice. You’re embarrassing yourself publicly now. It’s sad to see.

  42. I liked this contribution from Clive:

    “The trouble with Pauline Hanson is she’s looking for three senators with lower IQs than her – it’s an impossible task,” Mr Palmer told Fairfax Media.

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