Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

Newspoll returns after three weeks to find the situation all but totally unchanged.

One Nation are off two points on the primary vote, from 8% to 6%, but the latest Newspoll is otherwise as dull as it gets. Labor’s lead on two-party preferred is unchanged at 52-48, both major parties are unchanged at 38% on the primary vote, the Greens are up one to 10%. Malcolm Turnbull is up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 40% and 50% respectively; Bill Shorten is down one to 33% and steady on 55%. Turnbull leads 46-31 on preferred prime minister, compared with 47-30 last time. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday, presumably from a sample of about 1600.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

891 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 12 of 18
1 … 11 12 13 … 18

  1. The shonks at it again – Lock them UP!

    A leading law firm has warned employers not to confess to underpayment of superannuation until a proposed amnesty is passed into law.

    A feud has erupted in Canberra over plans to give employers some clemency if they disclose and amend historical underpayment of the 9.5 per cent super guarantee.

    Labor will vote against legislation to establish the 12-month amnesty, which could return billions to workers, because crooked employers would be allowed off the hook.

    Ashurst has advised clients to review their super records but be aware that the amnesty might not become law.

    “In case the bill does not pass, employers are advised to wait until the legislation is in effect before disclosing shortfalls.”

    Business groups have backed the amnesty but the Australian Council of Trade Unions is strongly opposed to it.

    Institute of Public Accountants senior tax adviser Tony Greco said Labor should “get off their ideological high horse” so unpaid super could be returned to workers.

    He said the initiative was sensible because penalties associated with missing deadlines for super payments were disproportionately harsh, and small businesses encountering cash flow problems were especially “vulnerable”.

    Ashurst partner Geoffrey Mann said the amnesty would be similarly welcomed by larger businesses, which sometimes made mistakes when figuring out payments for contractors and people working odd hours, for example.

    ….Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen has blasted the fact that an employer could fail to pay super entitlements for more than 25 years but then not face any penalties if he or she came forward during the amnesty.

    …Kate Carnell’s support for the amnesty has riled Australian Council of Trade Unions assistant secretary Scott Connolly.

    “We need to change the rules so that employers who don’t pay their workers are held to account, not let off with one of the biggest amnesties Australia has ever seen,” he said.

    “If you can’t pay your employees, or you don’t understand your obligations, then you should not be running a business.”

    https://www.afr.com/personal-finance/superannuation-and-smsfs/superannuation-amnesty-for-underpaying-employers-dogged-by-dispute-20180614-h11d35

  4. Turnbull said earlier he had been assured by Optus they would have the problems fixed tonight.

    The solution was probably not what they were aiming for.

    Massive PR coup for SBS

  6. “Just as a matter of interest, what advice would you give your daughter if she said she was going to walk through such a place alone late at night. Go ahead, be your own person, you are entitled to be safe wherever you go? Or would you caution her about the risks?’

    Yeah I’d offer to give her a lift, but if she didn’t want one I’d point out it is probably safer walking through the park at 2 am than it is at home. This kind of evil attack is almost are rare as actual terrorism, not quite the same but very very rare. Meanwhile a women is killed by her partner on a very very regular basis, partners are statistically a lot more dangerous than parks at 2 am.

  7. adrian @ #516 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 6:03 pm

    Shit, NSW government throwing money around like a drunken sailor.

    The Budget is about to be tabled and various goodies have been released daily for the last week or so. ABC TV News in Sydney dutifully running each “daily special” either as its leading story or close thereto with Glady’s and various nodding heads.

  8. “Well that didn’t take long.
    SBS to take over covering the World Cup for the next 48 hours at least. Big win for Turnbull and SBS; big loss for Optus.”
    Rubbish. Optus is simply providing its product on Malcolm’s NBN. The punters know the real cause is the Abbott-Turnbull sabotage of Labor’s NBN.

  9. WWP

    ‘…partners are statistically a lot more dangerous than parks at 2 am.’

    I suggest that that is true in absolute numbers because there are millions of women at home with millions of partners.

    But very few women walking alone in parks in the early hours of the morning.

    But I don’t know which would be more dangerous per person per night.

  12. Our great LNP will win the seats of Longman Braddon and Mayo and I know that they will win them and the next election

  14. “But I don’t know which would be more dangerous per person per night.”

    I know what you are saying, but I’m not at all sure that is the relevant question for my daughter tonight. I’m certain that she is a lot safer in the local parks than she’d be with a guy. And I don’t try and stop her going out with people.

    Also i’m not terrified to the point of surrendering a broad range of civil liberties out of fear of terrorism, so I appreciate I’d odd, generally Australian’s are lining up to give away civil liberties because they are scared to death of terrorism, and refugees. The list of stupid fears is quite long.

  16. So let’s re-cap:

    Labor has increased its primary vote from 35% at the election to 37-38% primary vote (in an environment of considerable Liberal party instability).

    The Liberal party primary vote has gone down from 42% to approximately 38-39%.

    A large chunk of the Liberal vote has passed to PHON.

    The Liberal party appears to have improved its polling by about 2% points on the allocation of preferences since December 2017.

    Unless there’s an improvement in the primary vote for either major party, minor party preferences esp PHON will decide the election.

    Conclusion: It’s looking a lot like a Mark Latham 2004 style election victory for Labor.

  17. GG

    ‘Isn’t that more tactilely as you want your hand in there somewhere?’

    Were I you I would keep a close eye on the candle.

  19. Interesting how there has previously been much opposition expressed to CCTV cameras but now all of a sudden not a peep when lots more are being installed all over the place.
    I am not opposed to them and never was.

  21. bemused @ #568 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 7:06 pm

    Interesting how there has previously been much opposition expressed to CCTV cameras but now all of a sudden not a peep when lots more are being installed all over the place.
    I am not opposed to them and never was.

    The big switch for me was the capture of the predator that killed Jill Meagher.

  24. GG
    Thank you. One of the nice things for this lapsed person was to attend the traditional sung latin masses in Paris. The folks concerned were as one with Arch-reactionary Lefevbre but, if you could put that to one side, then the integrated glories of stained glass, incense, beautiful voices, centuries of finely honed music and lyrics… almost heavenly…

  25. On ABC News in Melbourne a woman saying she has 3 boys then saying she just hopes she can raise them to respect women

    My wife and I just looked at each other

  26. bemused

    Just a case of ‘boiling frog’ syndrome. It is all part of the nibbling away. It may not pose a threat with the current government but we are quietly building the infrastructure for a surveillance state. Some thing a Dutton of the future would lurve.

  28. Yeah I’d offer to give her a lift, but if she didn’t want one I’d point out it is probably safer walking through the park at 2 am than it is at home.

    Both Jill Meagher and Eurydice Dixon were attacked and killed late at night walking alone in the dark after declining lifts that were offered.

    Surely there is a message in that which should not be lost in the furore over whether they are to blame or not. Of course they are not. But they put themselves at risk when there was no need to do so and two bastards took advantage of it.

  29. It should be noted:
    1) the Australian homicide rate is falling (gun control matters)
    2)The Australian homicide rate is about 1 per 100,000.
    3)The Australian Death by car is about 4 per 100,000
    4)The homicide rate in the US is about 5 per 100000.

  31. Greensborough Growler @ #570 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 7:09 pm

    bemused @ #568 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 7:06 pm

    Interesting how there has previously been much opposition expressed to CCTV cameras but now all of a sudden not a peep when lots more are being installed all over the place.
    I am not opposed to them and never was.

    The big switch for me was the capture of the predator that killed Jill Meagher.

    I was rather indifferent, but not opposed.
    And, like you, I have moved to strong support over the same case. They have also helped with others such as Marsa Vukotic in Doncaster.
    In both cases, it was private CCTV cameras that provided the clues.

  32. Boerwar @ #573 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 7:11 pm

    GG
    Thank you. One of the nice things for this lapsed person was to attend the traditional sung latin masses in Paris. The folks concerned were as one with Arch-reactionary Lefevbre but, if you could put that to one side, then the integrated glories of stained glass, incense, beautiful voices, centuries of finely honed music and lyrics… almost heavenly…

    Lapsed catholics are only Catholics that haven’t been to confession for awhile!

  33. poroti @ #575 Monday, June 18th, 2018 – 7:12 pm

    bemused

    Just a case of ‘boiling frog’ syndrome. It is all part of the nibbling away. It may not pose a threat with the current government but we are quietly building the infrastructure for a surveillance state. Some thing a Dutton of the future would lurve.

    Noted.
    I am pleased with the results so far.

  35. “Both Jill Meagher and Eurydice Dixon were attacked and killed late at night walking alone in the dark after declining lifts that were offered.

    Surely there is a message in that which should not be lost in the furore over whether they are to blame or not. Of course they are not. But they put themselves at risk when there was no need to do so and two bastards took advantage of it.”

    They were killed by men in Melbourne too, perhaps it would be wiser to avoid Melbourne and men in Melbourne entirely?

    The same logic would also mean that a girl should just never date, because the partner is much more likely to kill her than the park at night. It is just irrational.

  36. Except Stjohn, Latham was not confronting a government with a One seat majority

    Given any swing to Labor in WA or Queensland where the government hold the majority of seats Labor will need to retain the seats it currently holds to take the Treasury benches – and polling suggests that will be the outcome

    Then you have the redistributions which we are told favours Labor

    But more to the point is the impact the economic indicators are having on citizens including that the Balance has exclusively favoured Capital and borrowers over labour and savers during the term of this government

    People will vote to restore balance

    Their lives and the lives of their children depend on Balance being restored

  38. The same logic would also mean that a girl should just never date, because the partner is much more likely to kill her than the park at night. It is just irrational.

    One of us is being illogical WWP and I am certain it is not me.

  39. https://www.afr.com/business/sport/how-tony-abbott-paved-the-way-for-the-sbsoptus-world-cup-deal-20180614-h11dxb

    ….:When Abbott led the Coalition to victory in the 2013 federal election, he promised not to cut funding to the ABC and SBS. But, by the time the 2014 budget came around the following May, he had changed his mind and, for two consecutive years, SBS boss Michael Ebeid told Senate estimates hearings the broadcaster’s World Cup coverage could be at risk thanks to reduced funding.”…..

    Wasn’t Malcolm Communications Minister…? Trying to cover his own ass now .. !
    Especially since his party wants to sell the ABC. The Optus crap is just a preview of what to expect with private telco’s running everything. It is coming…….courtesy of your LNP.

  40. Surely there is a message in that which should not be lost in the furore over whether they are to blame or not. Of course they are not. But they put themselves at risk when there was no need to do so and two bastards took advantage of it.

    The only acceptable message is that men need to undergo cultural change that dictates to them it is unacceptable to assault or rape a woman. Regardless of what time of the day or night it is, whether she is amongst friends, or by herself.

  41. “One of us is being illogical WWP and I am certain it is not me.’

    You might well be logical, but your conclusion is still irrational and driven by fear rather than facts.

  42. But they put themselves at risk when there was no need to do so and two bastards took advantage of it.

    That logic, applied on a statistically fair basis, would pretty much mean that everyone should just stay in bed 24/7. Doing anything else is risky, there’s no need for it, and no way of knowing when “two bastards” might show up and take advantage.

    Sort of like, you sign up to go skydiving, and then when you’re on the plane and about to jump two of the other passengers pull out knives and stab you in the back. And then everyone says “well, you put yourself at risk by choosing to take an unnecessary risk, so it’s kind of your fault too”.

    How about we just get on with blaming the two bastards, and stop playing at making the victims partly responsible for the fact that the world had two bastards in it. They’re not.

  43. Has Turnbull been asked at all about the white Sth African farmer visas? Or has this flown under radar because everyone is distracted by the supposed ABC privatisation?

  45. I am FUCKING SICK of being blamed – either directly or indirectly – for the recent murder of the young woman in Melbourne.

    I was NOT in Melbourne on that night. I did NOT wish her any harm (in fact I have never heard of her). I do NOT frequent parks at night so that I can perve on, attack, rape and/or murder young women.

    I have never EVER hit a woman, nor threatened violence to any woman.

    I don’t know anyone who has done any of the above, or who has ever even discussed it with me.

    Sure, a “man” seems to have committed the crime, but “men” didn’t do it. Certainly not this man or anyone he knows.

    So will you leave us alone, feminists? Jesus Christ, you drive people to distraction with your fucking finger pointing.

  46. “The only acceptable message is that men need to undergo cultural change that dictates to them it is unacceptable to assault or rape a woman. Regardless of what time of the day or night it is, whether she is amongst friends, or by herself.”

    Nicely put, it isn’t at all hard, but anyone would think it is indecipherable.

  47. The Korean War armistice was signed on July 27th 1953. By my calculations an 18yo in the US military at the time would now be around 83. I can’t imagine there would be too many parents still around.

    On the other hand, I wonder what proportion of Korean-Americans vote Replublican?

  49. bc
    Vets are hugely important in US politics. There are so very, very many of them. I can’t imagine that many of them would have liked to see Trump saluting a communist officer belonging.

  50. “The only acceptable message is that men need to undergo cultural change that dictates to them it is unacceptable to assault or rape a woman. ”

    No. To look to immediate security in society as it exists NOW is ALSO a message that needs to get out. One of these messages without the other is inadequate and wrong.

    Just saw the report on the vigil for Eurydice Dixon. a woman said she walked the 30 mins to make a statement. fine, her choice, freely made as is her right, and she obviously wasnt doing it a 2am.

    But if she was my offspring i would have advised against it.

Comments Page 12 of 18
1 … 11 12 13 … 18

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *