BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to record a voteless recovery in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings.

Two new polls this week, a particularly strong one for Labor from Essential Research and a stable one from ReachTEL, produce a 0.4% shift to Labor on this week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Labor gains two on the seat projection, those being in Victoria and Western Australia. Essential provided a new seat of leadership ratings, and these conformed with the existing impression of an upswing in personal support for Malcolm Turnbull that has so far done little to improve his party’s voting intention. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,845 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. briefly @ #1396 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 10:57 am

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Wednesday, June 13, 2018 at 10:48 am

    Richard Deness with a blow by blow description of the demise of neo-Liberalism. I highly recommend his Quarterly Essay piece as well.

    https://www.afr.com/opinion/columnists/neoliberalism-is-dead-and-the-australian-political-right-killed-it-20180611-h118fn

    I’ve heard him speaking on this. He’s amusing, thoughtful, persuasive and encouraging.

    He was on Philip Adams show the other night. You’re appraisal of him is spot on.

    http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/rn/podcast/2018/06/lnl_20180606_2220.mp3

  2. Report reveals Trump’s idea to stop ‘war games’ around North Korea may have come from Putin

    President Donald Trump’s ideas about stopping the joint military exercises between the United States military and South Korea may have come from Russian President Vladimir Putin.

    A Wall Street Journal puff piece from Jan. 2018 walked through 50 staffers who gave insights into how to deal with the president after his first year in office. Nested within that story, however, was a story about the conversation Trump had with Putin at the G-20 summit last summer.

    At the time, Trump was reportedly angry with Congress for inserting itself into his decision to impose sanctions against Russia.

    “Around the same time, Mr. Trump had an idea about how to counter the nuclear threat posed by North Korea, which he got after speaking to Russian President Vladimir Putin,” The Journal wrote of the plan.

    “If the U.S. stopped joint military exercises with the South Koreans, it could help moderate Kim Jong Un’s behavior,” the report continued. Tuesday, Trump announced exactly that.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/06/report-reveals-trumps-idea-stop-war-games-around-north-korea-may-come-putin/

  3. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, June 13, 2018 at 10:39 am
    Barney

    You mean like following Jacinda Adern Jeremy Corbyn and Yes the Greens with restoring public services like a people’s bank. That is having a bank set up to do what the Commonwealth Bank used to do when it was government owned.

    Ditto for electricity and rail.

    Neo Liberalism is dead and change is coming.
    Have actual debates in conferences on the right way to approach indefinite detention and refugees instead of being afraid of the LNP scare campaigns and assuming all marginal seat voters are racist.

    You are just wrong about this. The asylum-seeker issue is solid gold for the Gs and the LNP. It is radio-active for Labor. The entire strategy consists of NOT talking about it because to do is to play to the strengths of Labor’s enemies. In the same way that the LNP do everything they can to avoid talking about health, education, NDIS or the NBN and climate change, Labor tries to steer the conversation onto topics that resonate positively with persuadable voters.

    The Gs and the LNP absolutely totally adore this issue. They get off on the politics of asylum seekers.

  4. zoomster @ #1375 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 10:29 am

    dtt

    ‘We love Saudi cos they have oil and are friends.’

    I sometimes wonder who you think you’re debating here. I have never seen a post here lauding the Saudis. I have seen quite a few condemning them.

    If anything, your reference to the Saudis undermines your original contention, that Trump has done something out of the box. Offering favourable deals to countries with poor human rights records is par for the course for the US.

    As has been established, Trump hasn’t achieved anything new. NK has had deals with the US in the past, almost identical (if not actually) to the one on the table. There is already pressure on the US (from far more important allies than NK will ever be) to back away from some parts of the deal.

    And it’s at least worth considering that – if you want to believe this deal is somehow exceptional, and something past Presidents wanted to achieve but couldn’t – that former Presidents thought the price of an agreement with NK was too high.

    Zoomster

    Only the idiots on here like Roger Miller assume any such nonsense.

    I think I was saying that the actual deal was nothing much, BUT the face to face meeting was a positive – although without in anyway exaggerating its significance.

    However I did go on the SPECULATE that circumstances have changed and that perhaps the USA has made some concessions that were actually in its interest to make. That in a sense Trump has given a face saver for things the US military wanted or needed to do anyway. I SPECULATED about two possible motives:
    1. Is cost ie the US military is a huge cost on an overstretched budget. Reducing deployment in Korea may save money. This is consistent with the Trump pre- election comments about the cost of NATO and defending allies. The be nice to Russia strategy, and possibly even the attacks on the US allies in Europe may sort or be part of the same theme. Cutting cost. Given the US budget deficit you can be sure that there are plenty of economists making this sort of suggestion, albeit quietly. They sure would be in Australia. I repeat this is speculation, but is borne out by Trumps speech.

    2. This second is more speculative but is based on recent developments in military technology, as announced by Russia and with less fanfare China. A quick look at a map shows that US forces in Korea or even in the Sea of Japan might be vulnerable to any medium range weapons of Russia or China. Perhaps it no longer makes strategic sense for the USA to have forces operating in the area. It is a narrow water way and a competent Chinese Navy could trap US forces inside the China sea. It was not by accident that the Chinese led an enormous armada around Taiwan a few weeks ago.

    3.The third issue not already mentioned is that it would seem that the Korean people are no longer keen on the US presence. They trade with China and were badly hurt by retaliatory sanctions a few months ago in response to the US THAD system. A military installation with a hostile population is always vulnerable. The South Koreans do not want to be obliterated as collateral damage in a war between the US and China/NK. When the USA was the biggest guy in the room and China a puny mal-nourished weakling, SK was happy to rely of USA and make concessions, especially if it kept the Japanese out. However now that China is nearly as strong as the USA (probably stronger in the nearshore areas such as Korea), SK has much, much less strategic interest in cosying up to the biggest boy in the room.

  5. BK

    Impossible BK. Our trusty press corp have described him to us as being silver tongued many many many many many many many many many many many many many times.

  6. Briefly

    Yes thats the reality. However don’t delude yourself. The Victorian State Conference could not even debate it because the ALP is scared that voters in marginal seats are racist.

    Thats the bottom line on shutting the debate down.

    This is why the LNP can wedge Labor on this issue. Unlike standing up to the racism like they do with Indigenous affairs backing treaties and the Uluru statement the ALP do run scared on asylum seekers.

    At least be honest about why the debate was shut down. Fear of the LNP exploiting racism.

  7. Trump, like any unregenerate flimflam artist, has a penchant for revealing the truth with a jest or wisecrack. He boasted to the feckless press corps,”I’ll find some kind of an excuse..”, if it turns out he has been wrong and Kim has stabbed him in the back just like, you know, Trudeau has.

    To back up his Orwellian “kind of an excuse”, what egregious instinctual (aka lizard brain) kind of a retaliation will Trump then unleash in order to save face with Murdoch and his minions, Breitbart, Rush Limbaugh, the Koch Bros, John Bolten’s Neo-Cons, the NRA etc., who will be howling for a double down of “Fire and Fury” provocations?

    During the Cold War, these provocations were called brinkmanship such as escalated into the Cuban missile crisis. Check out on Youtube: Noam Chomsky’s dire warnings that humans have never been closer to annihilation from the dual threat of nuclear war and global warming.

  8. poroti @ #1391 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 10:55 am

    zoomster

    that former Presidents thought the price of an agreement with NK was too high.

    Former presidents did not have a DPRK with ICBM’s and nuclear weapons. Therefore ignoring them and letting then huff and puff was without risk.

    Abolutely

    By the way when I last commented on your to Zoomster reply, I was agreeing with you but not Zoomster. I am sue you realised that but just in case!!!!!

  9. John Schindler‏Verified account @20committee

    Key stakeholders NOT consulted on Trump’s decision to end US DoD MILEX (not “wargames”) in South Korea:

    VPOTUS
    Congress
    CJCS
    SECDEF
    OSD
    SECSTATE
    ODNI
    USPACOM
    USFK
    And, oh yeah, the ROK

    Pentagon and Seoul Surprised by Trump Pledge to Halt Military Exercises

    In Washington, officials at the Pentagon, State Department and White House were scrambling to figure out exactly the impact of Mr. Trump’s comments.

    Mr. Trump’s announcement raised fears in the South Korean capital that Washington was making concessions too fast, before North Korea has dismantled its nuclear weapons.

    The South Korean Defense Ministry hurriedly issued a curt statement saying that it was trying to figure out Mr. Trump’s intentions.

    American officials said the military exercises are important because the allies use them to ensure readiness and promote the ability to operate with similar equipment and tactics. On a strategic level, they demonstrate the strength of the decades-long alliance with South Korea.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/12/world/asia/trump-military-exercises-north-south-korea.html

  10. BK

    Surely not? The great communicator and innovator and legislator? the silver tongue of the Sydney Bar.

    You must have been watching Shorten.

    Several people have noted in recent times the Tutnbull habit of asking questions to dodge answering those asked of him.

    Should make for an interesting QandA when he shows up there. Guest asking audience for answers. Will Tony Jones interrupt audience member’s answer?

  11. phoenixRED @ #1429 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 11:32 am

    John Schindler‏Verified account @20committee

    Key stakeholders NOT consulted on Trump’s decision to end US DoD MILEX (not “wargames”) in South Korea:

    VPOTUS
    Congress
    CJCS
    SECDEF
    OSD
    SECSTATE
    ODNI
    USPACOM
    USFK
    And, oh yeah, the ROK

    Pentagon and Seoul Surprised by Trump Pledge to Halt Military Exercises

    Mr. Trump’s announcement raised fears in the South Korean capital that Washington was making concessions too fast, before North Korea has dismantled its nuclear weapons.

    No, no, it’s all good. Just listen to dtt and poroti.

    NK has the ability to build some kind of nuke, and to launch long-range missiles that only fail like ~90% of the time, and no demonstrated ability of using those two things together. In the name of peace, they must be appeased. Peace! Peace! Appease all the crackpot dictators! NK can be trusted, 100%! Praise Trump for saving us all!!!

  12. Rossmcg

    The description of him as being silver tongued has always bewildered me. Perhaps it is meant to be taken like ‘Honest John” Howard .

  13. AR
    Plus NK have destroyed their Nuke testing site by testing nukes. Do they have another testing site? Do they actually have any nukes? Seems that negotiating to dismantle their program may be a good deal for NK.

  14. @PeeBee

    There would be very few closely held (private) companies which were not reporting entities(publicaly listed) who would be big enough and have the resources to engage in multinational tax minimisation practices.

  15. Roger Miller

    It would be great for them to denuclearize as it costs a bucket load. Bad enough for a rich country let alone a busted arse one like the DPRK. I suspect they are hoping like hell there is a way to do it without losing face.

  16. Poroti

    To be fair to Turnbull I have seen him speak well. A couple of time in the Parliament on condolence motions come to mind.

    It is when he reverts to politician/barrister mode and he is trying to argue for a policy that he comes up very short. All bluster and no substance.

  17. “Gee whiz! Turnbull stumbles a lot answering questions.”

    yes – I think someone has told him it’s endearing – like Bertie Wooster, Hugh Grant or Boris Johnson before people realised what prize upper-class twats they were (fictional and otherwise – is Boris real?). I imagine in turnbull’s circles that affected bumbling is still seen as the mark of a jolly good chap.

  18. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, June 13, 2018 at 11:23 am
    Briefly

    Yes thats the reality. However don’t delude yourself. The Victorian State Conference could not even debate it because the ALP is scared that voters in marginal seats are racist.

    Thats the bottom line on shutting the debate down.

    This is why the LNP can wedge Labor on this issue. Unlike standing up to the racism like they do with Indigenous affairs backing treaties and the Uluru statement the ALP do run scared on asylum seekers.

    At least be honest about why the debate was shut down. Fear of the LNP exploiting racism.

    Crap.

    It’s bad enough that the LNP or the Gs would try to wedge Labor on this issue. Labor will not deliberately wedge itself.

    The LNP and the Gs play politics on this issue. They exploit refugees for political purposes. Labor try to stay out of that cesspit. The claim that Labor is frightened of racism is just sheer nonsense.

  19. Turnbull’s bumbling is designed to show that he has so many compelling answers to your question that he just doesn’t know which one to start with.

    It’s his way of telling you how much smarter he is than you are.

  20. Trump’s theatrics are not about serious stuff like foreign policy. They are only about keeping the media focussed on him. It’s a ratings game for Trump. Everything is soap as far as Trump is concerned. He craves attention and he knows how to get it.

    Where the rest of the world prefer order and continuity, Trump plays the outcast, the improbable champ. This is an American story too. It’s the anti-hero living the American dream. He’s perfected the role and can extemporise very easily. He is capricious, impetuous, ungracious, deceptive, offensive, bullying, malicious and greedy. Notably, American politics is now all about Trump. He has come to personify its decadence and impending decline. This might serve Trump’s political and private financial goals, but it ill-serves the US and the rest of us too.

  21. Labor knows that as the only viable alternative government, it’s in a total no-win situation.

    If they soften their stance, the Liberals will scream that they’re soft on the borders and it will hurt electorally, the Greens will bleat that “Labor has stolen our policy… again”.

    If they maintain their policy – the Liberals will still try to drag them into a street fight and the Greens will accuse Labor of being heartless monsters.

    I’m within the ALP trying to bin this awful policy, but in the world of Real Politik, it’s a total vote loser for Labor.

  22. Palmer Report‏Verified account @PalmerReport

    If Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un were both drowning and you only had time to save one of them, where would you and Justin Trudeau go for lunch instead?

  23. My god AR, Roger and Phoenix are imbeciles or else so brainwashed that they cannot think for themselves.

    Trump’s failure to consult is certainly unusual, (but it is what the Kennedy brothers did in the Cuban crisis). However Trump does have Pompeo on board so it is a reasonable assumption that at least the CIA was consulted. Presumably the CIA is up to speed with all sorts of security information – including assume the relative strengths of military of all the nations, their manufacturing capacity and infrastructure. You should bloody well hope so anyway.

    It is of course an interesting question as to just whom should be consulted in really big issues. I m not sure that the Military should be consulted expect in the more general way regarding military strength, cost and capacity. They should NOT be actively engaged in foreign policy. They are a service arm not a policy arm – or should be. We would not for example invite the head of our military into a cabinet meeting when decisions were being made, but they may be invited to give a presentation on ,military status.

    So no you knee jerk followers, it is not “all right” but the world is changing and the assumptions on which core decsions have been made no longer hold or are shaky.

    I think the fact that the US elected trump, the fact that the country is so fractured and divided, the fact that they have a horrible system of government such that their ministers are appointees rather than elected and accountable representatives, the fact that all areas of government have been leaking like sieves, makes government by consultation next to impossible.

    The system is broken. Trump is a symptom not a cause.

  24. Trump really likes melodrama. It is his preferred genre. The more abuse that’s heaped upon him, the more he likes it. He sets out to attract it, if only to be seen to rise above it. He personifies the Chance to Prevail Against Adversity. Even where there is no adversity, he will contrive to create it.

  25. From Senator Murray Watt

    Gist of @TheIPA “evidence” to Senate inquiry: consumers don’t need the tradespeople they use to be licensed, because “sovereign individuals” “should be left to assess the amount of risk they want to take on”. Honestly, what planet do these people live on?

  26. My god AR, Roger and Phoenix are imbeciles or else so brainwashed that they cannot think for themselves.

    What the hell would we do without someone of your class, discernment and high level intelligence to guide the way for the rest of us mere imbeciles?

  27. Gist of @TheIPA “evidence” to Senate inquiry: consumers don’t need the tradespeople they use to be licensed, because “sovereign individuals” “should be left to assess the amount of risk they want to take on”. Honestly, what planet do these people live on?

    Back in my youth, when I was just a little libertarian, I went along to a CIS Liberty & Society Student Conference. They still run them https://www.cis.org.au/events/?category=ls-student-program

    During the conference, a genius from UQ made exactly that argument, but wrt brain surgery.

    My extreme hostility to hard-libertarian opinions on economic and regulatory matters can be traced back to that exemplary display of idiocy.

    They will claim it is a principled extension of self-evident facts. In fact, the argument’s mind-boggling simplicity appeals only to simpletons.

  28. Out of interest it is worth commenting on who in a democracy should be consulted DIRECTLY on major Foreign affairs decisions (as opposed to indirectly eg the treasurer neads to provide advice on the state of the coffers and the military on the readiness of troops but not directly in the decision providing they have given accurate and complete advice.

    VPOTUS – yes normally but given his recent provocative comments – probably not

    Congress – not usually – we do not consult parliament – perhaps it SHOULD be lawbut it is not – here or in the USA and indeed it is unusual to consult directly. Possibly behind the scenes stuff goes on but NOT public consultation

    CJCS – No definitely NOT. The Military should NEVER be directly invlved in FA decsions, although one would hope that decisions are informed by their advice re the capacity and readiness of the military machine.

    SECDEF – Yes probably this person should have been consulted. I will give pheonex et al this one (This person is the POLICY person not the operational arm if you can understand the distinction. it is a core tenet of a DEMOCRACY – the military is controlled by civilians

    OSD – no not normally – see note above. Given the sieve like quality of the government consultation must be minimised

    SECSTATE- well Pompeo set up the meeting. It is probable that he was involved. If not then yes a serious breach but let us assume that he was the MAIN player

    ODNI – absoltely not – also a service arm. Their job is to provide information NOT to be part of the decision making

    USPACOM – Absolutely NOT. they are servants not decision makers. Of course they will oppose anything that reduces their roles but other than giving briefing on the capacity of their delivery systems they have NO role. NONE and those who think they should are fundamentaly opposing core foundations of democracy.

    USFK – as above in triplicate

    And, oh yeah, the ROK – Now this one is more interesting. Tricky. After all if a country is changing policy ie switchng treaty or trade partners does one consult with the jilted partner. In this case given that SK was not keen on the exercises and Moon in particular is very keen for peace, i assume – that this option was already on the negotiating table and KNOWN. After all Kim and Moon have met twice inrecent weeks.

    Sorry AR et al.

    That list was a list of a pack if whining people upset about not exerting an improper degree of control.

  29. Sprocket @ #1429 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 12:45 pm

    From Senator Murray Watt

    Gist of @TheIPA “evidence” to Senate inquiry: consumers don’t need the tradespeople they use to be licensed, because “sovereign individuals” “should be left to assess the amount of risk they want to take on”. Honestly, what planet do these people live on?

    So why did they, and their avatars in politics, the Coalition, squeal like stuck pigs about Labor’s Home Insulation Program!?! Should’ve been all good in the hood if they followed their own tenets!

  30. DTT

    You have interesting ideas. I am far from convinced the USA is “broke” and would scrimp on, of all things, military expenses.

    Also Saudi Arabia is Sunni not Shia.

    But inexplicably, and counterintuitively, Trump does seem to have achieved a breakthrough. If the Koreas want to make nice, what is the rationale for USA involvement?

  31. briefly @ #1404 Wednesday, June 13th, 2018 – 8:13 am

    guytaur says:
    Wednesday, June 13, 2018 at 10:39 am
    Barney

    You mean like following Jacinda Adern Jeremy Corbyn and Yes the Greens with restoring public services like a people’s bank. That is having a bank set up to do what the Commonwealth Bank used to do when it was government owned.

    Ditto for electricity and rail.

    Neo Liberalism is dead and change is coming.
    Have actual debates in conferences on the right way to approach indefinite detention and refugees instead of being afraid of the LNP scare campaigns and assuming all marginal seat voters are racist.

    You are just wrong about this. The asylum-seeker issue is solid gold for the Gs and the LNP. It is radio-active for Labor. The entire strategy consists of NOT talking about it because to do is to play to the strengths of Labor’s enemies. In the same way that the LNP do everything they can to avoid talking about health, education, NDIS or the NBN and climate change, Labor tries to steer the conversation onto topics that resonate positively with persuadable voters.

    The Gs and the LNP absolutely totally adore this issue. They get off on the politics of asylum seekers.

    Someone linked the Labor twitter page yesterday.

    On it were a series of tweets during Q&A quoting Shorten.

    Unsurprisingly there was not one about asylum seekers. 🙂

  32. “We are going to stop the War games and that will save us a lot of money”

    So NK embracing nuclear weapons has worked

    And you never judge others by self, but Australia per se is racist

    Look at election outcomes

    And some of the most racist are immigrants!!

  33. Lovey

    Perhaps is it is that for the first time in ‘The Dotard” and “Little Rocket Man” the two counties are led by people who speak the same language ? Said 87% in jest 🙂

  34. I know it’s easy to generally be cynical wrt the PM and the government’s actions, but I am very pleased to hear there will be a national apology to the victims of abuse.

  35. And a “People’s Bank” is an abject nonsense

    What is it going to do other banks do not?

    Take on more risk using taxpayer money?

    So become lenders of the last resort?

    Been there, done that

    Remember?

    Those Balance Sheets did not have the strength to survive – and they did not

    As I say, an abject nonsense

  36. When Labor wins the next election, they should knee cap the IPA by conducting an inquiry into it, thereby exposing it for the sham it is, then removing its tax exempt status. it will be a great day when they do.

  37. *sigh* 🙂

    Days after the 2016 election, Barack Obama was racked by self-doubt. “What if we were wrong?” he asked his aides, his longtime senior adviser Ben Rhodes recalls in his new memoir of the Obama presidency. Had the administration “pushed too far” in its promotion of cosmopolitan values, neglecting and underestimating the simmering anger of Rust Belt workers, white identitarians, and other culture warriors who worried their country was changing too much, too fast? “Maybe,” Obama said, “people just want to fall back into their tribe.” It’s been a mark of humility, perhaps, that Obama has remained mostly silent since then, issuing only occasional statements criticizing his successor. It may also reflect a degree of political cunning: with Democrats in disarray for much of Donald Trump’s first year in office, the party has needed time to right itself, to find a new message and new leaders.

    Behind the scenes, however, Obama has been quietly re-entering Democratic politics, asserting his role as presidential kingmaker ahead of the 2020 election.

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/06/obama-2020-presidential-election-role

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