ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman

ReachTEL produces a par for the course result on national voting intention, but finds Labor in big trouble in its effort to hold on to Braddon and Longman.

Three ReachTEL polls courtesy of Sky News:

• Nationally, Labor maintains a 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated two-party preferred. Primary votes are Coalition 35% (down one), Labor 34% (down one), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 9% (up three, if you can believe that). The poll also includes a question on company tax cuts that has none of the skew of Newspoll’s recent question on the subject, finding 49% in favour and 43% opposed. No sample size was provided, by they are usually somewhere above 2000.

• The good news for Labor ends there, because a poll of over 800 respondents in Braddon credits the Liberals with a lead of 54-46, compared with Labor’s 52.2% to 47.8% win at the 2016 election. The primary votes are Liberal 47% (41.5% at the 2016 election), Labor 33% (40.0%) and Greens 6% (6.7%). Company tax cuts are apparently unusually popular in the nation’s sixth poorest electorate, with 56% in favour and 38% opposed.

• Labor is also behind the eight ball in Longman, where the Liberal National Party is credited with a lead of 52-48, compared with Labor’s 50.8% to 49.2% win in 2016. The primary votes are LNP 38% (39.0% at the 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.4%), Greens 2% (4.4%) and others 14%. I am unclear if this means One Nation weren’t specifically listed as a response option – it might be thought problematic if they were not. Given the largely unchanged position on the primary votes, the LNP’s lead mostly comes down to them getting a better preference flow from respondent allocation in the poll than they did at the 2016 election. Here too company tax cuts were found to have unusually strong support, with 58% in favour and 33% opposed. As with Braddon, the sample was “over 800”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,148 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman”

Comments Page 21 of 23
1 20 21 22 23
  1. Darn @ #998 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 7:49 pm

    FWIW I don’t think Observer was addressing the issue of which gender perpetrates the most domestic violence. The post that I saw seemed to be saying that whoever commits such atrocities should be held accountable, male or female, which seems to be a very reasonable thing to say.

    We’re up to around 30 women and children killed by domestic violence this year. Not so many men.

  2. Indeed. But it takes a very long time to deal with each individual case, and if that’s the route you take to change, lots of innocents will die in the meantime.

  3. bemused

    Of course becoming more sensible and conservative does not work as well for people who have only worked for Government then retire with a massive pension they remain in Never-never land forever. I have found the exception being police officers and nurses but they see the real world.

  4. Darn @ #994 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 5:49 pm

    FWIW I don’t think Observer was addressing the issue of which gender perpetrates the most domestic violence. The post that I saw seemed to be saying that whoever commits such atrocities should be held accountable, male or female, which seems to be a very reasonable thing to say.

    Wrong. Observer straight up accused me saying I debased myself “bringing gender into it”, something I did not do. I remarked upon a report of a man who was sentenced for a brutal attack on his toddler son. GG brought gender into the discussion, and with good reason given men are invariably the perpetrators.

    If the male snowflakes on this blog are going to take umbrage at every comment on reports about men who commit family violence then they should bunker down somewhere else lest their feelings get hurt. Because domestic violence is a genuine political policy issue, and I say this delicately for the male snowflakes out there, men are by far and away the biggest perpetrators of it.

  5. Darn @ #998 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 7:49 pm

    FWIW I don’t think Observer was addressing the issue of which gender perpetrates the most domestic violence. The post that I saw seemed to be saying that whoever commits such atrocities should be held accountable, male or female, which seems to be a very reasonable thing to say.

    Oh no, you got it all wrong! Nothing about that at all. It is the evil bemused manipulating Observer according to GG.

  6. “Some people can sympathise with the victim and condemn the offender irrespective of the sex of either”

    The problem ALL men have is the presumption and that is dangerous – as we see on here with references to men and fault being with men

    I particularly condemn males who disrespect because they add to the presumption that engulfs ALL males – they make it easy to then say “all men”

    But equally I condemn those who disrespect – and particularly those who impose themselves on children because children do not have a voice

    The response I have quoted is the fact in my view

  7. Steelydan @ #1002 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 7:56 pm

    bemused

    Of course becoming more sensible and conservative does not work as well for people who have only worked for Government then retire with a massive pension they remain in Never-never land forever. I have found the exception being police officers and nurses but they see the real world.

    You couldn’t get much further from that description than me.
    Next BS argument?

  8. BK @ #961 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 6:40 pm

    The Blue Rinse Set have long been a core demographic for them.
    ___
    poroti
    Not to forget the gold shoes.

    BK

    I think perhaps those of us of a certain age should perhaps not refer to the blue rinse set.

    I now realise that when i was 15, the blue rinse set whom my parents disparaged Menzies voters. were ral enough, it is just that they were probably only 55-70.

    I shudder to realise that I am now of the blue rinse age group. These days it is short clipped grey hair or a dyed puffy harido (blond or red not blue) and white pants.

  9. Observer @ #1005 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 7:59 pm

    “Some people can sympathise with the victim and condemn the offender irrespective of the sex of either”

    The problem ALL men have is the presumption and that is dangerous – as we see on here with references to men and fault being with men

    I particularly condemn males who disrespect because they add to the presumption that engulfs ALL males – they make it easy to then say “all men”

    But equally I condemn those who disrespect – and particularly those who impose themselves on children because children do not have a voice

    The response I have quoted is the fact in my view

    Bbased on your personal experience. Unfortunately, the facts are that men kill and bash their partners and children far too often for it to be ignored.

    You feel emotionally drained because the world is not fair. Maybe that’s right and maybe it’s not. But, the discussion is about the overall not your personal experience.

  10. Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, June 4, 2018 at 7:54 pm
    Darn @ #998 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 7:49 pm

    FWIW I don’t think Observer was addressing the issue of which gender perpetrates the most domestic violence. The post that I saw seemed to be saying that whoever commits such atrocities should be held accountable, male or female, which seems to be a very reasonable thing to say.

    We’re up to around 30 women and children killed by domestic violence this year. Not so many men.

    GG
    Of course it is shocking that so many women and children have been killed. No decent person would want to deny that.

    Like I said, I don’t think that is the issue Observer was addressing. He can correct me if I am mistaken in that belief.

  11. Rex Douglas @ #1002 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 6:00 pm

    ‘male snowflakes’ is a bit of a sexist term to use in a debate

    How so? A snowflake is someone who melts under scrutiny. I find it a totally apt term to use when applied to the misogynist ‘male rights’ defenders here who continue to deny that family violence overwhelmingly impacts women and children than men.

  12. I think perhaps those of us of a certain age should perhaps not refer to the blue rinse set.
    ____
    dtt
    In my tonsorial state I would need to apply a blue coloration with a Texta Color!

  13. Observer

    But no one says ‘all men’. The fact that (some) male posters read it that way is in itself intriguing.

    That said, if we are to avoid generalisations on the off chance that a reader might think they’re being personally referred to, our posts will become unreadable.

  14. Confessions @ #1014 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 8:06 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1002 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 6:00 pm

    ‘male snowflakes’ is a bit of a sexist term to use in a debate

    How so? A snowflake is someone who melts under scrutiny. I find it a totally apt term to use when applied to the misogynist ‘male rights’ defenders here who continue to deny that family violence overwhelmingly impacts women and children than men.

    Who here denies that ?

  15. zoomster @ #1017 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 8:08 pm

    Observer

    But no one says ‘all men’. The fact that (some) male posters read it that way is in itself intriguing.

    That said, if we are to avoid generalisations on the off chance that a reader might think they’re being personally referred to, our posts will become unreadable.

    When someone says “men” it is a general term applying to all men.
    Similarly if someone says “women” it is a general term applying to all women.
    If you want to narrow it down, use something like “male perpetrators”.
    Then I will agree with you, as you are narrowing it down to the actual perpetrators, and not slurring all men.
    And not all perpetrators are men.

  16. Looks like Rodney Cavalier has nailed Mark Butler as a “reformer”.

    It’s time to disband the party and transfer the assets to the Obeid Foundation for social democracy and start again.

  17. Fess,
    I totally agree.
    Women have to learn to live with and survive male violence; the men on this blog can learn to live with and survive women talking about it.

    Toughen up, fellas.

    It is a form of silencing women, and feminist-aware men. Just kick up a big fuss over mentioning males bashing up and killing women, call the women out for misandry and there you go, everyone walks on tippy-toes in case the bear gets woken up.

    Tough man-titties to that.

  18. Puffytmd @ #1026 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 8:19 pm

    Fess,
    I totally agree.
    Women have to learn to live with and survive male violence; the men on this blog can learn to live with and survive women talking about it.

    Toughen up, fellas.

    It is a form of silencing women, and feminist-aware men. Just kick up a big fuss over mentioning males bashing up and killing women, call the women out for misandry and there you go, everyone walks on tippy-toes in case the bear gets woken up.

    Tough man-titties to that.

    By deliberately, and in a calculated manner, slurring all men, you are doing a disservice to your cause and making yourself ridiculous.

  19. Puff:

    Onya Puffy! And thanks for the back up, but GG also deserves some kudos for taking on the male misogynists as well on this issue.

  20. I just finished watching all of Mystery Road. I cannot agree with Lynchpin, I thought it was cinematographically innovative, with amazing drone work allowing many scenes evocative of Aboriginal art to be filmed, top down, from the air. The script was suspenseful and well-paced. I certainly couldn’t figure out who did it until the end. All the acting was of a quality you would normally see in a movie, such was the level of performance from a stellar cast.

    That’s not to say that there weren’t some lumps and loose ends that weren’t tied up. However, I’m not going to quibble because it was good enough to keep me interested all day today.

    I, too, have seen the movie ‘Mystery Road’, and I agree that it was superior to ‘Mystery Road’ the series. I think that’s because Ivan wrote the movie and someone else wrote the series, so maybe that’s why it suffered in Lynchpin’s eyes.

    All up though, I think it’s got to be in line for some awards this year. It’s that good.

  21. It doesn’t matter bemused. You know its pointless when GG of all people is masquerading as the high moral ground.

  22. Confessions @ #1028 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 8:20 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1002 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 6:00 pm

    ‘male snowflakes’ is a bit of a sexist term to use in a debate

    Seeing as Rex is experiencing a Trump-like memory loss for something he said only minutes earlier.

    You said “misogynist ‘male rights’ defenders here who continue to deny that family violence overwhelmingly impacts women and children than men.”

    I then asked “Who here denies that ?”

  23. If anyone had any doubt in the lack of technical understanding of the folks running NBN co.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-04/nbn-chief-blames-gamers-for-congestion/9832596
    “While people are gaming it is a high bandwidth requirement that is a steady streaming process,” Mr Morrow told the committee.”

    Absolute rubbish.
    Online gaming is extremely latency sensitive (sucks to be on wifi, even worse on satellite), as such, they are designed to be EXTREMELY low bandwidth.
    It is the everyday user’s video streams that strain the bandwidth. Youtube, Netflix etc.
    By FAR a larger proportion of users than Gamers, and exponentially greater bandwidth usage!
    (Exception is during the initial of downloading a new game of course, as is the case with any large download)

    Pure incompetence

  24. Rex Douglas @ #1033 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 6:28 pm

    Confessions @ #1028 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 8:20 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1002 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 6:00 pm

    ‘male snowflakes’ is a bit of a sexist term to use in a debate

    Seeing as Rex is experiencing a Trump-like memory loss for something he said only minutes earlier.

    You said “misogynist ‘male rights’ defenders here who continue to deny that family violence overwhelmingly impacts women and children than men.”

    I then asked “Who here denies that ?”

    No Rex, you said male snowflakes was a sexist term. You can scroll back and find your own comment.

    Stop trying to shift the goalposts now you’ve been called out.

  25. Confessions @ #1041 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 8:30 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1033 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 6:28 pm

    Confessions @ #1028 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 8:20 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #1002 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 6:00 pm

    ‘male snowflakes’ is a bit of a sexist term to use in a debate

    Seeing as Rex is experiencing a Trump-like memory loss for something he said only minutes earlier.

    You said “misogynist ‘male rights’ defenders here who continue to deny that family violence overwhelmingly impacts women and children than men.”

    I then asked “Who here denies that ?”

    No Rex, you said male snowflakes was a sexist term. You can scroll back and find your own comment.

    Stop trying to shift the goalposts now you’ve been called out.

    not shifting goal posts at all

  26. Can we just get a bit of perspective on the DV issue? Compare apples with apples.

    So, this year and last, how many husbands were murdered by their wives, compared with the number of wives murdered by their husbands?

    Anyone know?

  27. Well Rex, I think what Cavalier is saying essentially 2 people decided all Labor preselections in SA one of whom was the Butler.

  28. Still its pretty amazing how Butler lifted himself up by the bootstraps from being a cleaner to a Cabinet minister.

  29. Confessions @ #957 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 3:27 pm

    GG:

    And after his shoulder surgery he was never the same. 🙁

    Really?

    After his first few test he was never the same and he kept getting better!

    Debut: 1991/92
    350 wickets: 1999/00
    700 wickets: 2007/08 including a 1 year ban and spells for injuries.

    The stats and from what I saw suggest he got better with age as you’d expect from a leg spinner! 🙂

  30. Zeh,
    I think the folks running NBN Co believe that the Senators grilling them know sfa about the technical side of supplying bandwith etc for the internet, so they can say crap like that and get away with it.

    Poor Gamers! They are getting blamed for everything from mass murders in the USA to crap internet in Australia!

Comments Page 21 of 23
1 20 21 22 23

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *