ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman

ReachTEL produces a par for the course result on national voting intention, but finds Labor in big trouble in its effort to hold on to Braddon and Longman.

Three ReachTEL polls courtesy of Sky News:

• Nationally, Labor maintains a 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated two-party preferred. Primary votes are Coalition 35% (down one), Labor 34% (down one), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 9% (up three, if you can believe that). The poll also includes a question on company tax cuts that has none of the skew of Newspoll’s recent question on the subject, finding 49% in favour and 43% opposed. No sample size was provided, by they are usually somewhere above 2000.

• The good news for Labor ends there, because a poll of over 800 respondents in Braddon credits the Liberals with a lead of 54-46, compared with Labor’s 52.2% to 47.8% win at the 2016 election. The primary votes are Liberal 47% (41.5% at the 2016 election), Labor 33% (40.0%) and Greens 6% (6.7%). Company tax cuts are apparently unusually popular in the nation’s sixth poorest electorate, with 56% in favour and 38% opposed.

• Labor is also behind the eight ball in Longman, where the Liberal National Party is credited with a lead of 52-48, compared with Labor’s 50.8% to 49.2% win in 2016. The primary votes are LNP 38% (39.0% at the 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.4%), Greens 2% (4.4%) and others 14%. I am unclear if this means One Nation weren’t specifically listed as a response option – it might be thought problematic if they were not. Given the largely unchanged position on the primary votes, the LNP’s lead mostly comes down to them getting a better preference flow from respondent allocation in the poll than they did at the 2016 election. Here too company tax cuts were found to have unusually strong support, with 58% in favour and 33% opposed. As with Braddon, the sample was “over 800”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,148 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman”

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  1. Sorry to revert to the Barnaby/Vikki show, but I do wonder how long this partnership will last.

    Sara‏ @_sara_jade_ · 13h13 hours ago

    Vikki Campion on her father’s reaction. “ I was deeply hurt.”
    Barnaby scratches his head. (body language) confused and unable to understand that concept. “That was comical,” he said.
    Campion is visibly upset. “He’s my father.”
    Barnaby “ Can’t pick your family.”

  2. zoomster @ #948 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 6:07 pm

    ‘The older male GRASPers die early – usually of apoplexy at being contradicted.’

    So you get to be a Tory widow by fervently agreeing with everything Your Man says while he’s bringing in the dosh, and when he retires, you start arguing with him?

    Grin.

  3. A Liberal party meeting on the NSW central coast. I spot a couple of folks clearly aged under 60 but not many. What is notable are the number of women present.
    ____
    Not only blue ties but blue hair too!

  4. Tony AbbottVerified account@TonyAbbottMHR
    4h4 hours ago
    It was good to see three local businesses that are flourishing thanks to the policies of the Abbott Turnbull government.

    :large

    No mention of either the policies that kept them flourishing, or the nature of their business. But looking at the image I’m definitely thinking union bagman.

  6. So bemused, employers can only do so much?

    Then they blame the prime minister?

    Given the prime minister is a Labor prime minister, of course

  7. Frednk@3:55pm
    My point about empty shovel in the MT publicity photo is, who is the spin master who told MT to hold empty shovel when feeding cow?

  9. Ven says:
    Monday, June 4, 2018 at 6:27 pm
    Frednk@3:55pm
    My point about empty shovel in the MT publicity photo is, who is the spin master who told MT to hold empty shovel when feeding cow?

    Someone should have given Turnbull a bucket and told him to milk the same cows that he was pretending to feed.

  11. Observer @ #955 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 6:26 pm

    So bemused, employers can only do so much?

    Then they blame the prime minister?

    Given the prime minister is a Labor prime minister, of course

    Their case is over the sudden closure of the scheme which left them in the lurch with large stock of insulation material and other commitments.

    Had it not been for the hysterical screeching of Abbott and his gang, amplified by the msm, that would not have happened.

    The LNP tried to blame the Govt for the deaths, but, as subsequent inquiries have shown, that is just not tenable unless we are to hold the Federal Govt responsible for every workplace death on anything the Federal Govt funds. Plainly absurd.

    And I agree about the strange absence of a class action by the conscripts sent to Vietnam and the relatives of those who did not return.

  12. Malcolm Turnbull, on a tour of drought-stricken areas in New South Wales and Queensland, has declared there is “no doubt that our climate is getting warmer”.

    Flanked by Nationals on Monday in Trangie, Turnbull acknowledged climate change remained a live political debate but he said: “I don’t know many people in rural New South Wales that I talk to that don’t think the climate is getting drier and rainfall is becoming more volatile.”

    So in rural areas Mal is a farmer, in Canberra he doesn’t act to reduce AGW because he’s ruled by stupids.

    The Turnbull government is trying to implement a policy in electricity that would see emissions come down by 26% on 2005 levels by 2030 – a target many analysts say is too low for Australia to meet its commitments under the Paris agreement – but even that target is being gainsaid by government conservatives who have not ruled out crossing the floor to oppose it.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/04/no-doubt-our-climate-is-getting-warmer-malcolm-turnbull-says?CMP=share_btn_tw

  15. citizen

    Someone should have given Turnbull a bucket and told him to milk the same cows that he was pretending to feed.

    Better still , doing some artificial insemination with the moo cow.

  17. poroti @ #964 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 6:41 pm

    citizen

    Someone should have given Turnbull a bucket and told him to milk the same cows that he was pretending to feed.

    Better still , doing some artificial insemination with the moo cow.
    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Nah. Too reminiscent of his last DPM’s extracurricular activities.

  19. Another shocking incidence of family violence that thankfully ends in a jail term for the perpetrator. I’m shocked he didn’t try to claim mental health issues ’caused’ him to violently assault his son .

    Dillon last year pleaded guilty to his son’s killing, along with causing grievous bodily harm and several assault charges including choking and threatening to kill.

    The court heard Bradyn was abused in his north Canberra home for weeks leading up to his death, suffering more than 70 individual injuries on his body.

    He was thrown against walls, burned with cigarettes and hit with a belt.

    On the day of the murder, Dillon had hit and kicked his son in the face, which is believed to have made an earlier injury bleed.

    The court heard the final beating was sparked over an accusation Bradyn had stolen lollies from his father.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-04/graham-stuart-dillon-jailed-for-killing-son/9830992

  20. Q&A

    Joining Tony Jones in Melbourne: Social Services Minister Dan Tehan, Shadow Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus, former Tasmanian senator Jacqui Lambie, author/broadcaster Rosie Waterland, and IR commentator Grace Collier.

    Hmmm. Tehan and Collier. 🙁

  21. Golly @ #967 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 6:51 pm

    Bemused
    All good with your posts.
    Thanks

    Thanks for yours too.
    Bad enough that it got dredged up in court today, but ABC Melbourne radio couldn’t help itself and had the brother of one of the workers who died on their program. Nothing to do with the present court case.
    Fortunately the guy was fairly balanced, but the program presenter wasn’t and kept trying to get him to blame the Labor Govt.
    🙁

  22. Citizen@5:45pm
    Got it. Howard, Abbott and MT have had debased public service, whereas Rudd was handing plum posts to LNP pollies as if he could not find any good ALP pollies to give them to. I remember Hockey even making a snide remark about that saying something like he is giving us those posts because he could not find any good people in ALP.

  23. Confessions @ #968 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 6:54 pm

    Another shocking incidence of family violence that thankfully ends in a jail term for the perpetrator. I’m shocked he didn’t try to claim mental health issues ’caused’ him to violently assault his son .

    Dillon last year pleaded guilty to his son’s killing, along with causing grievous bodily harm and several assault charges including choking and threatening to kill.

    The court heard Bradyn was abused in his north Canberra home for weeks leading up to his death, suffering more than 70 individual injuries on his body.

    He was thrown against walls, burned with cigarettes and hit with a belt.

    On the day of the murder, Dillon had hit and kicked his son in the face, which is believed to have made an earlier injury bleed.

    The court heard the final beating was sparked over an accusation Bradyn had stolen lollies from his father.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-04/graham-stuart-dillon-jailed-for-killing-son/9830992

    Yes, there is no excuse. Men have to be accountable for this violence and the sooner their enablers stop rationalising or mansplaining the behaviour then the sooner positive change can be made.

  25. Yes, there is no excuse. Men have to be accountable for this violence and the sooner their enablers stop rationalising or mansplaining the behaviour then the sooner positive change can be made.

    Well said GG.

  26. I agree bemused

    Remember also that the $900- cash back to all who actually paid tax during a particular tax year was criticised

    Impetus was provided by the cash back, the home insulation initiative and bringing forward out year expenses and particularly spending on school buildings

    Just for starters the amount owing to our home mortgage lenders had increased from $335 Billion in 2000 to $1.178 Trillion in 2008 when sub prime lending and the sale of that debt (see The Big Short) morphed to the GFC

    The government also underwrote deposits with Australian banks and endorsed the Subordinated Debt Coupons of our banks

    The reason for these moves were to give the economy impetus such that unemployment did not increase such that we could continue to service our private debt – because if we did not out banks also would have been under pressure of collapse taking the economy with it (again refer The Big Short and the reference to ultimate impact)

    The government was correctly lauded for its response, globally

    Henry played his part so his testimony will be of interest in that same hearing

    The potential to destroy the Australia we know was very real and very present – look at the outcome elsewhere and where the impact persists

    In Australia the impact persists because with the change of government the impetus was terminated – and business had not and still has not picked up the slack

    Hence where the ASX is today compared with Global Indices, including New Zealand

    And we have had a 30% depreciation of the AUD v the USD

    Brief I know

    But it gives you some idea – including the damage done by the Conservatives which endures

    The only consolation was that they were not in government at the time otherwise we would have been in a deep and continuing depression with homes not able to be given away aka the USA and other places globally

    The Conservatives are irresponsible in their pursuit of perceived political advantage hence a dysfunctional government and dangerous

  27. Observer,

    Move on. The only reason Rudd is being talked about today is because he gave evidence to a court. The events are long gone politically and (thankfully) so is Rudd.

    Like you I don’t believe Rudd has any issues to deal with. But, this incessant rear view vision politics is crap.

  28. Confessions, you debase yourself by bringing gender into the conversation

    Want to see a Family Report attended by the Family Court of Australia where children cover the behaviour of a mother?

    Or a school essay written 10 years later adding to that description?

    Leave the gender out

    Such behaviour is not acceptable in society

    Full stop

  30. It is not just that older people tend to vote LNP it is because as you get older and wiser and you vote for for sensible government. You become a grown up it is quite natural.

    If a man is not a socialist by the time he is 20, he has no heart. If he is not a conservative by the time he is 40, he has no brain. – Winston Churchill

    Any man who is not a socialist at age 20 has no heart. Any man who is still a socialist at age 40 has no head. – Georges Clemenceau

    If he had not become a Communist at 22, I would have disowned him. If he is still a Communist at 30, I will do it then.

    You get the idea

  32. Observer @ #977 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 7:22 pm

    Confessions, you debase yourself by bringing gender into the conversation

    Want to see a Family Report attended by the Family Court of Australia where children cover the behaviour of a mother?

    Or a school essay written 10 years later adding to that description?

    Leave the gender out

    Such behaviour is not acceptable in society

    Full stop

    Oh dear… the sorority will descend on you with a vengeance.

  33. Observer @ #977 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 7:22 pm

    Confessions, you debase yourself by bringing gender into the conversation

    Want to see a Family Report attended by the Family Court of Australia where children cover the behaviour of a mother?

    Or a school essay written 10 years later adding to that description?

    Leave the gender out

    Such behaviour is not acceptable in society

    Full stop

    Observer @ #977 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 7:22 pm

    Confessions, you debase yourself by bringing gender into the conversation

    Want to see a Family Report attended by the Family Court of Australia where children cover the behaviour of a mother?

    Or a school essay written 10 years later adding to that description?

    Leave the gender out

    Such behaviour is not acceptable in society

    Full stop

    Your contention that male misbehaviour is not the biggest factor in domestic violence is nonsensical. It’s up there with those who deny Climate Change in the face of inconrtavertible evidence.

  34. Confessions, you debase yourself by bringing gender into the conversation

    What conversation, and how did I bring gender into it?

  35. Steelydan @ #979 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 7:23 pm

    It is not just that older people tend to vote LNP it is because as you get older and wiser and you vote for for sensible government. You become a grown up it is quite natural.

    If a man is not a socialist by the time he is 20, he has no heart. If he is not a conservative by the time he is 40, he has no brain. – Winston Churchill

    Any man who is not a socialist at age 20 has no heart. Any man who is still a socialist at age 40 has no head. – Georges Clemenceau

    If he had not become a Communist at 22, I would have disowned him. If he is still a Communist at 30, I will do it then.

    You get the idea

    Yes, I get it.
    You peddling your RWNJ BS again.

  36. Oh I see you’re trying to attack me for posting about a man who committed inexcusable violence towards his toddler son, and you think it’s terrible I call this out?

    Go away.

  37. GG

    Where history is attempted to be re-written the lessons are lost

    So if ignorant commentators attempt to re-write history and defend by then saying it is in the past so move on they should correctly be called out

    And the impacts of the GFC continue to resonate as a raft of data attests – including where interest rates remain 10 years on

  39. Observer @ #986 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 7:29 pm

    GG

    Where history is attempted to be re-written the lessons are lost

    So if ignorant commentators attempt to re-write history and defend by then saying it is in the past so move on they should correctly be called out

    And the impacts of the GFC continue to resonate as a raft of data attests – including where interest rates remain 10 years on

    I accept your apology!

  40. Your contention that male misbehaviour is not the biggest factor in domestic violence is nonsensical. It’s up there with those who deny Climate Change in the face of inconrtavertible evidence.

    I keep saying that women and children are by far and away the most at risk from domestic violence. To be honest I’m still shocked there are people out there who are offended by this statement of fact and continue to claim it isn’t true. Just like the AGW denialists as you say!

  41. Observer,
    As painful as your experiences have obviously been the evidence you are putting up is still anecdotal.
    It is clear that the bulk of domestic violence is committed by men.

  42. Confessions @ #989 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 7:32 pm

    Your contention that male misbehaviour is not the biggest factor in domestic violence is nonsensical. It’s up there with those who deny Climate Change in the face of inconrtavertible evidence.

    I keep saying that women and children are by far and away the most at risk from domestic violence. To be honest I’m still shocked there are people out there who are offended by this statement of fact and continue to claim it isn’t true. Just like the AGW denialists as you say!

    Some people can sympathise with the victim and condemn the offender irrespective of the sex of either.

  43. Mark Dreyfus on Qanda. I have a lot of time for Mr Dreyfus. I dont always agree but I dont feel like tearing my hair out listening to him.

  44. GG.

    “Factors” don’t come into it

    Society dictates that there are certain parameters society adheres to and which are not negotiable

    Those who do not adhere to paying that respect to their fellow citizens are at fault, regardless of “factors”

    Try telling my children about “factors”

  45. Catching up…

    Ante Meridian @ #811 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 2:29 pm

    Does learning a second language make a kid brighter, or is it that kids who are already bright are more likely to learn a second language?

    Assuming two things, first that it is important to maximise the brightness of kids, and second that brighter kids learn languages is as likely as learning languages makes you brighter, which should you choose? From experience with my own kids I can only say that they are bright kids. I did not have a control for my experiment. But I would also add that having been exposed to three non-English languages and having learned one of them they are also more confident when it comes to English. Knowledge that language and culture are fluid and there are many ways to say and do something is a plus.

  47. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-04/former-one-nation-senator-fraser-anning-joins-bob-katters-aust/9832986

    Former One Nation senator Fraser Anning joins forces with Bob Katter, says Peter Georgiou next on Pauline Hanson’s ‘chopping block’
    7.30 By Dominique Schwartz
    Posted 7 minutes ago

    Former One Nation senator Fraser Anning has announced he will join Bob Katter’s Australian Party, predicting that remaining One Nation senator Peter Georgiou won’t last very much longer with Pauline Hanson.

    Senator Georgiou is now effectively Pauline Hanson’s last man standing after Brian Burston had a very public falling out with her at the end of last week.

    In November last year Senator Anning replaced Malcolm Roberts as a One Nation senator when Mr Roberts was disqualified for being a dual citizen.

    But within hours, he had publicly split from the party and its leader, who wanted him to step aside to allow Mr Roberts to return to parliament.

    “I predicted it to Brian about an hour after I got dumped, Brian and Peter and I, I said within the next 6 to 12 months we’ll all be sitting here talking about how we got dropped,” he told 7.30. “(Peter Georgiou’s) the next rooster for the chopping block.”

    Peter Georgiou replaced his brother-in-law, Rod Culleton, as One Nation’s WA senator after the High Court ruled Culleton had been ineligible to nominate.

  48. Observer @ #993 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 7:40 pm

    GG.

    “Factors” don’t come into it

    Society dictates that there are certain parameters society adheres to and which are not negotiable

    Those who do not adhere to paying that respect to their fellow citizens are at fault, regardless of “factors”

    Try telling my children about “factors”

    I’m sure you are bitter and twisted about events of the past. However, this is a political blog that focusses on broad issues. So, you focussing on yourself, which after all is just an anecdote in the total conversation, limits you from making a broader contribution.

    At the moment, you are being gamed by Bemused who is preying on your personal issues.

    If you want a conversation rather than just justification then continue. Otherwise, I’d leave the field before you get hurt.

  49. FWIW I don’t think Observer was addressing the issue of which gender perpetrates the most domestic violence. The post that I saw seemed to be saying that whoever commits such atrocities should be held accountable, male or female, which seems to be a very reasonable thing to say.

  50. I honestly didnt see anyone joining Katter. I thought Anning would join the Lib Dems or Aus Conservatives.

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