ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman

ReachTEL produces a par for the course result on national voting intention, but finds Labor in big trouble in its effort to hold on to Braddon and Longman.

Three ReachTEL polls courtesy of Sky News:

• Nationally, Labor maintains a 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated two-party preferred. Primary votes are Coalition 35% (down one), Labor 34% (down one), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 9% (up three, if you can believe that). The poll also includes a question on company tax cuts that has none of the skew of Newspoll’s recent question on the subject, finding 49% in favour and 43% opposed. No sample size was provided, by they are usually somewhere above 2000.

• The good news for Labor ends there, because a poll of over 800 respondents in Braddon credits the Liberals with a lead of 54-46, compared with Labor’s 52.2% to 47.8% win at the 2016 election. The primary votes are Liberal 47% (41.5% at the 2016 election), Labor 33% (40.0%) and Greens 6% (6.7%). Company tax cuts are apparently unusually popular in the nation’s sixth poorest electorate, with 56% in favour and 38% opposed.

• Labor is also behind the eight ball in Longman, where the Liberal National Party is credited with a lead of 52-48, compared with Labor’s 50.8% to 49.2% win in 2016. The primary votes are LNP 38% (39.0% at the 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.4%), Greens 2% (4.4%) and others 14%. I am unclear if this means One Nation weren’t specifically listed as a response option – it might be thought problematic if they were not. Given the largely unchanged position on the primary votes, the LNP’s lead mostly comes down to them getting a better preference flow from respondent allocation in the poll than they did at the 2016 election. Here too company tax cuts were found to have unusually strong support, with 58% in favour and 33% opposed. As with Braddon, the sample was “over 800”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,148 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman”

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  1. Hang on ….Turnbull lost the Liberal party leadership over climate change and he’s only just now realised it’s a political issue? Man’s like lightning.

  2. I thought Judy Davis looked pretty good esp for her age. She has to be in her 60s yet wears that uniform as good as any 20-something.

    C@t :

    Your friend’s son is obviously talented. Apparently Charles Perkins daughter produced Mystery Rd and her own daughter plays the daughter of Pederson’s character!

  3. Ven

    The shovel of MT in the photo is empty like MT

    Well spotted ! 🙂 Perhaps he had not had time to read the instructions ?

  4. Obviously a revenue-neutral UBI would involve higher taxes on higher incomes. Which is why people saying that “it gives free money to rich people who don’t need it” is so ludicrously innumerate

  5. Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, June 4, 2018 at 3:27 pm
    zoomster @ #851 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 3:25 pm

    Hang on ….Turnbull lost the Liberal party leadership over climate change and he’s only just now realised it’s a political issue? Man’s like lightning.
    Sharp as a bowling ball!

    Of course, there’s always an exception!

  6. citizen @ #859 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 3:34 pm

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, June 4, 2018 at 3:27 pm
    zoomster @ #851 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 3:25 pm

    Hang on ….Turnbull lost the Liberal party leadership over climate change and he’s only just now realised it’s a political issue? Man’s like lightning.
    Sharp as a bowling ball!

    Of course, there’s always an exception!

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Mate, the Liberal party is a standard bowling ball. All the pricks are on the inside!

  7. Confessions @ #854 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 3:29 pm

    I thought Judy Davis looked pretty good esp for her age. She has to be in her 60s yet wears that uniform as good as any 20-something.

    C@t :

    Your friend’s son is obviously talented. Apparently Charles Perkins daughter produced Mystery Rd and her own daughter plays the daughter of Pederson’s character!

    Yes, interesting family. Their father was a Hungarian immigrant. Mum is an artist. Another son reported on Rugby Union and Tech issues for Channel 7. 🙂

  8. Hand feeding from a toy trailer towed by a toy tractor using a plastic spade to feed four head of cattle from a national beef herd of 27 million is just about Turnbull’s speed.

  9. Having marvelled at their reflection in the shiny, new BLUE eating utensil they are probably wondering if they are related to Mr HIH’s shoes

  10. The thought of Latham kow-towing to Hanson is bad enough, but up the Shudder Factor to 11 when you picture him calling James Ashby “Sir”.

  11. ReaganRepublican@StillNeverTrump
    12h12 hours ago
    Do Trump worshipers realize his “conservative” policy on tariffs is the same as socialist Bernie Sanders? And do Bernie Bros realize their hero and Trump are policy buds?

    I doubt either of their supporters would care so long as Crooked Hillary Clinton isn’t in the WH!

  12. Boerwar @ #861 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 1:36 pm

    Hand feeding from a toy trailer towed by a toy tractor using a plastic spade to feed four head of cattle from a national beef herd of 27 million is just about Turnbull’s speed.

    Look on the bright side. At least he’s tricked out in hipster shoes and an Aboriginal gay pride sweater. Proof that even Malcolm Turnbull can bring a smile to a struggling farmer’s face 🙂

  13. Hopefully we are returning to predictable daily fuckups.

    When the Nats have done stating that it wasn’t them who put the hard word on Vicki, abortionwize, then whoever hasn’t stumped up with an excuse is the guilty party.

    Or will be held to be until he or she realises their mistake.

    Then back to Barnarby to say who it really was, or (as I suspect) it wasn’t anyone at all.

    Same for the drones, too.

  14. poroti @ #782 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 1:43 pm

    Greensborough Growler

    He has an “interest” in Wilcrow Pty Ltd which owns land. Makes him as much a farmer as OZEmail made him a tech head.

    So not only did he invent the internet in Australia, he also invented the world! How Great the Lord Malcolm truly is!!

    Tom.

  15. ItzaDream @ #780 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 1:35 pm

    poroti @ #775 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 1:18 pm

    Triple 😆 in the full piked position. Truffles has managed to out phoney his public transport photo-ops. Come on down Truffles the Farmer.

    The day of the Barnaby interview, Turnbull posts a photo of himself in the Hunter, on a farm feeding cattle the day after, he’s doing a media event at another farm outside of Dubbo with a stack of Nationals MPs

    <a href="” rel=”nofollow”>” rel=”nofollow”>

    https://twitter.com/JoshButler/status/1003428442807754752/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpbxmastragics.com%2F2018%2F05%2F07%2Fthe-big-budget-bribe-2018%2F

    Looks like a little dinky trailer pulled behind a ride on mower. And soft shoes I think. Farmer smcharmer

    I can never tell the National Party MPs apart. Which one is McCormack?

  16. Actually, I think the defence of a beloved pet is a much better reason for shooting someone than the usual religious or “everybody hates me” excuses.

    I’m not saying that makes it okay, of course, just that it doesn’t mean the Septics are any more stuffed than we already knew.


  17. poroti says:
    Monday, June 4, 2018 at 3:32 pm

    Ven

    The shovel of MT in the photo is empty like MT

    The shovel looks very unused; and I bet it will still look very unused after the photo shoot. I would not suggest anything other than a magic shovel.

  18. Playing devil’s advocate. Could Vicki be fibbing or even just mistaken about party people (or whoever) pressuring her to have an abortion? I didn’t watch the interview and haven’t seen a grab of that portion of it, so don’t have any context on which to base the reports of her comments.

  19. As several have commented the shovelling set up with Turnbull is fake beyond belief.

    It’s what happens when PR spinners set up photo ops. most of them would never have been on a fram and it would not occur to them that few farmers own a bright shiny new shovel form Bunnings.

    They do not live in the real world.

  20. A strong cold front is going to hit the SW tonight and tomorrow morning bringing strong winds, and hopefully some much-needed rain. The cold front will be preceded by a strengthening northerly flow, which will mean northerly winds similar to those we got a week or so ago that fanned the burn-off fires. I just hope people have been heeding the extended bans on burn offs and we don’t see another bushfire emergency.

    #weatheronPB

  21. Rudd giving evidence by video link from New York in class action over HIP.
    I can’t say I am impressed by his evidence that the Govt would not have proceeded with the scheme if the Public Service had made them aware of risks.
    Absolute BS.
    Everything in life has a risk, even getting out of bed in the morning.
    The OH&S risk and obligations lay with the employers and the State Agencies concerned, Federal Govt simply funded the program.
    The class action is over the shut down of the scheme. The finger should be firmly pointed at a hysterical opposition led by Tony Abbott and supported by the MSM who virtually accused the Govt of homicidal negligence.
    Unfortunately, Rudd and the Govt. buckled.

  22. bemused

    Damn right. Every death was an utter failure of observing standard OH&S. One by an idiot worker and the rest by the Coalition’s sainted ‘Small Business’. Was it a coincidence that so many were in Queensland ? Nah , that state was very keen on laxness in the building industry safety sphere.

  23. Confessions @ #4130 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 3:56 pm

    Playing devil’s advocate. Could Vicki be fibbing or even just mistaken about party people (or whoever) pressuring her to have an abortion? I didn’t watch the interview and haven’t seen a grab of that portion of it, so don’t have any context on which to base the reports of her comments.

    Oh, I’m sure that several of The Beetrorter’s colleagues suggested the traditional Tory response to The Little Master impregnating the help, but right now the suggestion of “pressure” is being used to distract from the knowing, overt complicity of the CPG with the coverup prior to the New England buy-election. The implied hypocrisy is a distraction from the actual festering malfeasance of Truffle’s Turds in their continuead capitulating to Gina the Hutt and The Beetrorter’s other Owners. I wonder what petard they will hoist themselves on next?

  24. fredn

    It was always a huge LOL when Howard and or Costello went “bush”. Never have you seen such fresh from the packet Akubras, RM Williams, Moleskin trou and Country Road shirts.

  25. but right now the suggestion of “pressure” is being used to distract from the knowing, overt complicity of the CPG with the coverup prior to the New England buy-election.

    Yes rhwombat, that’s what I was wondering.

  26. Confessions @ #880 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 3:56 pm

    Playing devil’s advocate. Could Vicki be fibbing or even just mistaken about party people (or whoever) pressuring her to have an abortion?

    What would her motive be for that? And wouldn’t it put her relationship with Joyce in serious jeopardy if he knows (or ever discovered) she was faking?

    Or are you suggesting the she’s fibbing at Joyce’s behest?

  27. bemused @ #885 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 4:06 pm

    Rudd giving evidence by video link from New York in class action over HIP.
    I can’t say I am impressed by his evidence that the Govt would not have proceeded with the scheme if the Public Service had made them aware of risks.
    Absolute BS.
    Everything in life has a risk, even getting out of bed in the morning.
    The OH&S risk and obligations lay with the employers and the State Agencies concerned, Federal Govt simply funded the program.
    The class action is over the shut down of the scheme. The finger should be firmly pointed at a hysterical opposition led by Tony Abbott and supported by the MSM who virtually accused the Govt of homicidal negligence.
    Unfortunately, Rudd and the Govt. buckled.

    One of many instances of failure re Rudd leadership which paralysed his Govt and forced his removal.

  28. a r:

    I was thinking the latter, as rhwombat has suggested.

    Besides, Barnaby has already thrown her under a bus with his insensitive and public questions about Sebastion’s paternity. Something, from media reports today she admitted to finding hurtful.

  29. poroti @ #889 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 4:10 pm

    bemused

    Damn right. Every death was an utter failure of observing standard OH&S. One by an idiot worker and the rest by the Coalition’s sainted ‘Small Business’. Was it a coincidence that so many were in Queensland ? Nah , that state was very keen on laxness in the building industry safety sphere.

    And who are the people wanting the compensation for it being shut down? Why small business people.
    Actually once the safety issues were publicised, it is unlikely there would have been more fatalities unless employees contributed by negligence.
    Regrettably, accidents at work do occur, and I suspect the rate on that program was not much different to the norm and would have trended down under the scrutiny attracted.

  30. Rex Douglas @ #896 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 4:20 pm

    bemused @ #885 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 4:06 pm

    Rudd giving evidence by video link from New York in class action over HIP.
    I can’t say I am impressed by his evidence that the Govt would not have proceeded with the scheme if the Public Service had made them aware of risks.
    Absolute BS.
    Everything in life has a risk, even getting out of bed in the morning.
    The OH&S risk and obligations lay with the employers and the State Agencies concerned, Federal Govt simply funded the program.
    The class action is over the shut down of the scheme. The finger should be firmly pointed at a hysterical opposition led by Tony Abbott and supported by the MSM who virtually accused the Govt of homicidal negligence.
    Unfortunately, Rudd and the Govt. buckled.

    One of many instances of failure re Rudd leadership which paralysed his Govt and forced his removal.

    GAGF Rex.
    It was a Cabinet decision.

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