Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Essential’s two-party gap narrows to its lowest point in 18 months, despite Labor’s tax and budget policies being favoured over the Coalition’s.

We have an Essential Research poll for the third week in a row, last week’s post-budget poll having been additional to the normal fortnightly cycle, rather than an adjustment. The result is the Coalition’s best from Essential since November 2016, with the Labor lead down to 51-49 from 52-48 last week, and 53-47 the week before. Primary votes will be with us when the full report is published later today. UPDATE: Full report here. The Coalition is up two to 40%, Labor is steady on 36%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are up a point to 8%.

This is despite a range of results on tax and budget matters that are uniformly favourable for Labor and/or unfavourable for the Coalition. As reported by The Guardian, the poll finds Labor’s income tax policy favoured over the Coalition’s by 45% to 33%, and 44% favouring Labor’s “increasing spending on health and education while giving a tax cut to low and middle-income earners”, over “the Coalition’s approach, which is to give both companies and workers a tax cut”. Sixty per cent said they did not want company tax cuts to proceed; 50% supported Labor’s proposed tightening of negative gearing, with 24% opposed; and 42% supported Labor’s dividend imputation policy, with 27% opposed. However, the two parties were tied at 32% on the question of best party to manage a fair tax system, with 22% saying it made no difference.

The funding cut to the ABC was supported by 35% and opposed by 45%, and 36% supported the cut to the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, with 39% opposed. Questions on a republic found 48% supportive and 30% opposed, with 65% favouring direct election of a head of state compared with just 9% for “a governor-general style appointment by the prime minister of the day”, and 12% for appointment by a two-thirds majority of a joint sitting of parliament.

Also note the post for the Western Australia’s Darling Range by-election immediately below this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,114 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 40 of 43
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  1. don @ #1922 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 1:54 pm

    Jaeger says:
    Friday, May 25, 2018 at 2:47 pm

    These drone (UAV) videos may be of interest:
    https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/movies/movie_173964.html
    https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/movies/movie_173965.html

    __________________

    I’ve walked across the bottom of that caldera – at a time (1966) when the volcano was not erupting!

    The solidified lava was fairly warm, but not scorching. Not a good idea to do that walk at the moment.

    Looking at the cracks in the cap rock gives an idea of the forces involved when the gas and ash broke through! 🙂

  2. I am soooooooooooo in shock and unhappy but one of my guitar hero’s has just passed away :

    Guitar legend Phil Emmanuel dies suddenly aged 65

    One of Australia’s greatest guitarists Phil Emmanuel, who rose to fame playing with The Trailblazers, has died aged 65.

    Phil passed away in Parkes late on Thursday night after a sudden asthma attack.

    He was staying with his brother Darcy at the time.

    With Phil and his brother Tommy playing together, the Emmanuel Brothers graced stages all over the world with names such as Chet Atkins, Duanne Eddy, America, Hank B Marvin, John Farnham, Jimmy Barnes, INXS, Dolly Parton and Willie Nelson.

    https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/music/guitar-legend-phil-emmanuel-dies-suddenly-aged-65-20180525-p4zhkd.html

  3. The ALP Rolled Gold Vetting Process has just proved successful again – ALP Candidate for Darling Ranges has quit after her dodgy LinkedIn CV was revealed.

    Heh.

  4. JimmyD,
    The Shoppies in NSW is actually a very broad church who have plenty of members and a leadership that is extremely tolerant. Their representative in the Senate, Deb O’Neill, has had multiple members of her staff who are in Same Sex relationships, and while she is a former teacher at one of our local Catholic colleges and is a devout Catholic herself, she has never sought to push her beliefs onto others.

  5. C@tmomma @ #1939 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 5:12 pm

    JimmyD,
    The Shoppies in NSW is actually a very broad church who have plenty of members and a leadership that is extremely tolerant. Their representative in the Senate, Deb O’Neill, has had multiple members of her staff who are in Same Sex relationships, and while she is a former teacher at one of our local Catholic colleges and is a devout Catholic herself, she has never sought to push her beliefs onto others.

    Unions have ‘their’ representatives in Parliament?
    That’s like Canavan representing the coal industry.

  6. Tingle:

    But politics is politics. And sorry, but if you think Labor would not indulge in such acts if it suited their purpose, you would be a little naive.

    So, Laura Tingle has forgiven an actual act of political bastardry because it is equal in every way to a hypothetical one. How jolly decent of her!

    Forgive me, but I don’t pay too much attention to the ins and outs of these types of things, but when was the last time a Labor government – even one in such a numerically precarious position as the present Liberal government – deferred 5 by-elections so they could occur on the very weekend of the Liberal national conference, 9 weeks hence?

    And if they did so, why does Laura Tingle feel it necessary to invent a hypothetically similar incident and then impute it to Labor, when she could have pointed to the real thing?

    Tingle is just a hack, like all the rest: dispensing wisdom and judgement on all, but always only ever giving one side the benefit of the doubt.

  7. bemused says: Friday, May 25, 2018 at 5:18 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1901 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 4:12 pm

    No Confessions today? Hope she is okay down there in Albany where the fires are.

    Yes, peaceful isn’t it.

    ******************************************

    I am sorry Bemused, but that is beneath you and surely a very unnecessary comment – to someone whose home may possibly be under threat

  8. Whereas the Liberals just make up important sounding names for the positions that their candidates hold:

    Alyssa Hayden described herself as “director of strategy and business engagement” for Opposition Leader Mike Nahan. Or, an Assistant. 🙂

  9. phoenixRED @ #1946 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 5:23 pm

    bemused says: Friday, May 25, 2018 at 5:18 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1901 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 4:12 pm

    No Confessions today? Hope she is okay down there in Albany where the fires are.

    Yes, peaceful isn’t it.

    ******************************************

    I am sorry Bemused, but that is beneath you and surely a very unnecessary comment – to someone whose home may possibly be under threat

    Yeah, right.
    People on PB carry on like people are caught in a major catastrophe every time there is a puff of wind, some minor flooding or any sort of fire within hundreds of Km.

  10. Confessions was here this morning. She reported on the fires and then reported herself to be ready and willing to leave early, if or when required.

  11. bemused says: Friday, May 25, 2018 at 5:29 pm

    phoenixRED @ #1946 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 5:23 pm

    I am sorry Bemused, but that is beneath you and surely a very unnecessary comment – to someone whose home may possibly be under threat

    **********************

    Yeah, right.
    People on PB carry on like people are caught in a major catastrophe every time there is a puff of wind, some minor flooding or any sort of fire within hundreds of Km.

    **************************************

    Maybe its just me but I think of most people on PB as part of a “family” of folks who have their ups and downs like me – I feel their pains or their joys like mine and that’s why I like being here every day and how WE look and care after each other !!!!

    Whatever YOUR issues with Confessions – the fact they may lose their home – is not something to be insensitive to.

    I sincerely hope Confessions and their home is safe !!!!

  12. The Age
    ‏Verified account @theage
    11m11 minutes ago

    Glasses will be banned from passport photos as of July 1, under new regulations

  13. Fire report from Sandgropia…..

    https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/bushfires/bushfire-emergency-in-albany-in-was-south-ng-b88846676z

    The Albany bushfire emergency warning now includes the township of Elleker as firefighters continue to battle several bushfires on the South Coast that have destroyed at least two buildings.

    At a community meeting in Albany at 1pm, Mayor Dennis Wellington told locals while a fire in the Stirling Ranges had been downgraded to a Watch and Act, two fires, at Napier and Redmond, remained out-of-control with the entire situation upgraded to a level three.

    The meeting was also told the strong cold front which hit WA overnight brought northerly winds instead of the usual south-westerly winds, fuelling the fires.

    More than 150 firefighters have been battling the blazes since Thursday.

  14. “Zoidlord says:
    Friday, May 25, 2018 at 5:42 pm
    The Age
    ‏Verified account @theage
    11m11 minutes ago

    Glasses will be banned from passport photos as of July 1, under new regulations”

    Have they thought about tinted contact lenses?

  15. And it would be bliss without bemused.

    That is an equally unnecessary comment.

    You don’t have to scratch the surface too deeply around here. And in doing so you could almost get the distinct impression that certain folks on this blog are just hanging around looking for scabs to pick over so they can start a fight.

    I can guarantee you all that no-one here gives a flying fuck about your petty disagreements, the rights, the wrongs, the whys and and the wherefores concerning them, or the real or imagined insults that need – every single day, it seems – to be re-examined, re-opened and regurgitated.

    Why don’t you try engaging for a change? You’re all intelligent people, basically on the same wavelength (or at least in the same spectrum).

    And if you can’t engage, just quit it with the snarky comments.

    * Note that in the above I have not mentioned anyone by name, dredged up any particular ancienty issue or taken sides with (or against) anyone.

  16. Conservation groups have accused the environment and energy minister, Josh Frydenberg, of allowing political interference in the scientific assessment of threatened species listings.

    Frydenberg has delayed, for the third time, granting an endangered listing to woodlands eligible for protection under Australia’s national environment laws.

    A notice published on his department’s website says the minister has postponed a decision on the poplar box grassy woodlands on alluvial plains, a type of grassy eucalypt woodland found in New South Wales and Queensland, until the end of November.


    “This latest deferral from minister Frydenberg is particularly galling – yet another excuse to avoid his responsibility to list poplar box woodlands as endangered,” the HSI head of programs, Evan Quartermain, said.

    “The scientific committee’s advice delivered to the minister more than a year ago leaves no doubt that the woodlands warrant listing, and neglecting to act on this advice puts remnants of the ecosystem in need of protection at unnecessary risk.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/may/25/frydenberg-again-delays-giving-protection-to-threatened-woodlands?CMP=share_btn_tw

  17. The government claims the AEC is impartial. There are no independent or impartial civil institutions under this mob.

  18. Tingle’s comment dismissing the Liberal’s action by trying to normalise it is a major problem with the CPG’s approach.

    Instead of calling something out as unacceptable and pushing for change it’s always, but Labor …

    Nothing will change while we maintain this attitude.

    The CPG seem to be too scared to bite the hand that feeds it despite recognising the problem!

  19. citizen @ #1963 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 2:56 pm

    “Zoidlord says:
    Friday, May 25, 2018 at 5:42 pm
    The Age
    ‏Verified account @theage
    11m11 minutes ago

    Glasses will be banned from passport photos as of July 1, under new regulations”

    Have they thought about tinted contact lenses?

    From what I heard in estimates it is the frame that is causing some problems for the facial recognition software, so I don’t think contacts would be a problem. 🙂

  20. Bushfires in the South West of WA – I know that WA’s seasons run later than in the East, but this does seem very unusual. I note that Albany has got almost no rain from the cold front that dumped 35 mm (so far) on Perth, just cooler temperatures and lots of wind. It has been quite dry over in Albany during April and May, with about 20% of average rainfall.

    Best wishes for Confessions – she did seem worried.

    Sydney had bushfires on its Southern outskirts in mid April, barely 6 weeks ago, almost unheard of so late in the season. February and Autumn are normally too wet and humid, but It’s been very dry here also.

  21. Have they thought about tinted contact lenses?

    Don’t laugh. That’s a good point.

    When I had my last passport photo taken I broke the camera … just kidding, boom-boom… the photo had to be re-taken, because some stray green color cast from a fluorescent tube outside in the shopping mall had impinged on the shadow tones and made me look like I was recovering from a hangover cause by drinking far too much crème de menthe (which was a dirty lie).

    The photo was re-taken at another Post Office that did not have a fluoro-lit arcade outside. I can also remember at the time that another bludger or perhaps Pubster had had their own passport photo rejected for the same reason, by the same passport office (in Newcastle NSW, at the time, I believe).

    All went well, and when I came back through Customs on my return, I successfully engaged the robo-customs cameras to be cleared for entry in record time, totally hands-free.

    The point is… that no-one would have known whether I was wearing colored contact lenses or not, whether I had prosthetic ear lobes (yes, they’re a thing: https://www.google.com.au/search?q=prosthetic+ear+lobes&rlz=1C1SKPL_enAU443AU519&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjM-J_0s6DbAhXHsJQKHU5rDxEQ_AUICigB&biw=1920&bih=927 ) glued on, or whether my hair was dyed or not. All they seemed to care about was that fluoro tube out in the mall, greening the shadow detail.

    Are there laws against altering your appearance b y means of “fashion accessories”?

  22. “The scientific committee’s advice delivered to the minister more than a year ago leaves no doubt that the woodlands warrant listing, and neglecting to act on this advice puts remnants of the ecosystem in need of protection at unnecessary risk.”

    Hasn’t this happened before where an environmental protection decision was delayed so much that it was eventually denied as the area had degraded so much.

  23. uote

    I’m sure at some stage the Uber Tuber will introduce laws which will mean there really are ‘Fashion crimes’

  24. DisplayName @ #1966 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 3:00 pm

    The government claims the AEC is impartial. There are no independent or impartial civil institutions under this mob.

    The Government came to power with a big broom and the clear message to the Public Service, give us what we want or there’s the door.

    So, I don’t think it’s a lack of impartiality, more a case self-preservation in tailoring the information to what you think they want to hear.

    A bit like how we got into the 2nd Iraq War!!!

  25. phoenixRED @ #1958 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 5:38 pm

    bemused says: Friday, May 25, 2018 at 5:29 pm

    phoenixRED @ #1946 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 5:23 pm

    I am sorry Bemused, but that is beneath you and surely a very unnecessary comment – to someone whose home may possibly be under threat

    **********************

    Yeah, right.
    People on PB carry on like people are caught in a major catastrophe every time there is a puff of wind, some minor flooding or any sort of fire within hundreds of Km.

    **************************************

    Maybe its just me but I think of most people on PB as part of a “family” of folks who have their ups and downs like me – I feel their pains or their joys like mine and that’s why I like being here every day and how WE look and care after each other !!!!

    Whatever YOUR issues with Confessions – the fact they may lose their home – is not something to be insensitive to.

    I sincerely hope Confessions and their home is safe !!!!

    You don’t even know if there is any risk FFS!
    I have not heard of any property loss or even injuries let alone loss of life and I of course hope it stays that way.
    Big deal.

  26. Zoidlord @ #1960 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 5:42 pm

    The Age
    ‏Verified account @theage
    11m11 minutes ago

    Glasses will be banned from passport photos as of July 1, under new regulations

    I thought they were already.
    I am sure I was instructed to get a photo without glasses when I presented one with glasses last time I renewed my passport.

  27. Potattohead shifting position to stymie any moves by Labor.

    Peter Dutton says he is willing to consider a New Zealand offer to resettle some refugees held in offshore detention, but only if they are banned from ever coming to Australia.

    The home affairs minister has floated the prospect in a bid to pressure the opposition into supporting stalled legislation which would stop anybody who arrived by boat from ever reaching Australia’s shores.

    “We would have a look at ways in which we would utilise the offer of 150 places,” Dutton told Sky News on Friday.

    However, he raised the recent interception of a boat carrying 131 asylum seekers from Malaysia to New Zealand to highlight the ongoing threat of people-smuggling.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/25/dutton-looks-at-taking-up-new-zealand-offer-to-resettle-150-refugees?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  28. uote @ #1964 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 5:56 pm

    And it would be bliss without bemused.

    That is an equally unnecessary comment.

    You don’t have to scratch the surface too deeply around here. And in doing so you could almost get the distinct impression that certain folks on this blog are just hanging around looking for scabs to pick over so they can start a fight.

    I can guarantee you all that no-one here gives a flying fuck about your petty disagreements, the rights, the wrongs, the whys and and the wherefores concerning them, or the real or imagined insults that need – every single day, it seems – to be re-examined, re-opened and regurgitated.

    Why don’t you try engaging for a change? You’re all intelligent people, basically on the same wavelength (or at least in the same spectrum).

    And if you can’t engage, just quit it with the snarky comments.

    * Note that in the above I have not mentioned anyone by name, dredged up any particular ancienty issue or taken sides with (or against) anyone.

    Jibes like that don’t bother me in the least as by coincidence they only come from people I have no respect for.
    C@t is one of the snarkiest on PB, so too are P1 and GG. Confessions is just an unpleasant troll. And then you get the ‘peanut gallery’ like Henry and Sohar. pfffft!

  29. I have been used to using TinyPic as a store for posting pictures.

    TinyPic is currently down, for how long is unknown.

    Is there another free site of a similar nature ❓

    Thanks. 😇

  30. In 2008, the Labor Government took around 80 days to set the Gippsland By-Election. And there are other examples of other by-elections which Labor delayed for no reason. Plus what about the disgraceful mediscare campaign. Cry me a river, Labor can whinge all they like, just a bunch of total hypocrites.

  31. Michael @ #1981 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 6:29 pm

    In 2008, the Labor Government took around 80 days to set the Gippsland By-Election. And there are other examples of other by-elections which Labor delayed for no reason. Plus what about the disgraceful mediscare campaign. Cry me a river, Labor can whinge all they like, just a bunch of total hypocrites.

    I don’t recall the circumstances of that by-election. Can you remind me?

  32. Appalling story out of Qld about the bastard who murdered his step-daughter.
    No sentence could be long enough.

  33. lizzie @ #1977 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 3:23 pm

    Potattohead shifting position to stymie any moves by Labor.

    Peter Dutton says he is willing to consider a New Zealand offer to resettle some refugees held in offshore detention, but only if they are banned from ever coming to Australia.

    The home affairs minister has floated the prospect in a bid to pressure the opposition into supporting stalled legislation which would stop anybody who arrived by boat from ever reaching Australia’s shores.

    “We would have a look at ways in which we would utilise the offer of 150 places,” Dutton told Sky News on Friday.

    However, he raised the recent interception of a boat carrying 131 asylum seekers from Malaysia to New Zealand to highlight the ongoing threat of people-smuggling.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/25/dutton-looks-at-taking-up-new-zealand-offer-to-resettle-150-refugees?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    I can see this change as the election approaches.

    The Government will be more and more desperate to get people off Manus and Narau.

    They will want the number’s to be as low as possible so they can beat Labor with them if there is any subsequent increase.

    They did the same thing with children in detention when the HRC flagged an investigation into children.

  34. Michael @ #1980 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 6:29 pm

    In 2008, the Labor Government took around 80 days to set the Gippsland By-Election. And there are other examples of other by-elections which Labor delayed for no reason. Plus what about the disgraceful mediscare campaign. Cry me a river, Labor can whinge all they like, just a bunch of total hypocrites.

    Issue writ 19 May
    Election 28 June
    You using a Hockey eleventy calculator ?
    https://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/supplementary_by_elections/2008-gippsland/

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