Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Essential’s two-party gap narrows to its lowest point in 18 months, despite Labor’s tax and budget policies being favoured over the Coalition’s.

We have an Essential Research poll for the third week in a row, last week’s post-budget poll having been additional to the normal fortnightly cycle, rather than an adjustment. The result is the Coalition’s best from Essential since November 2016, with the Labor lead down to 51-49 from 52-48 last week, and 53-47 the week before. Primary votes will be with us when the full report is published later today. UPDATE: Full report here. The Coalition is up two to 40%, Labor is steady on 36%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are up a point to 8%.

This is despite a range of results on tax and budget matters that are uniformly favourable for Labor and/or unfavourable for the Coalition. As reported by The Guardian, the poll finds Labor’s income tax policy favoured over the Coalition’s by 45% to 33%, and 44% favouring Labor’s “increasing spending on health and education while giving a tax cut to low and middle-income earners”, over “the Coalition’s approach, which is to give both companies and workers a tax cut”. Sixty per cent said they did not want company tax cuts to proceed; 50% supported Labor’s proposed tightening of negative gearing, with 24% opposed; and 42% supported Labor’s dividend imputation policy, with 27% opposed. However, the two parties were tied at 32% on the question of best party to manage a fair tax system, with 22% saying it made no difference.

The funding cut to the ABC was supported by 35% and opposed by 45%, and 36% supported the cut to the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, with 39% opposed. Questions on a republic found 48% supportive and 30% opposed, with 65% favouring direct election of a head of state compared with just 9% for “a governor-general style appointment by the prime minister of the day”, and 12% for appointment by a two-thirds majority of a joint sitting of parliament.

Also note the post for the Western Australia’s Darling Range by-election immediately below this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,114 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. guytaur @ #1818 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 12:09 pm

    Eliza Barr tweets

    Forget what you’ve heard. Please let me introduce you to the real Fairfield. It’s wonderful. You’ll love it. 96 percent of these Canley Vale kids come from non-English speaking background and they’re literally KILLING it at NAPLAN. https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/fairfield-advance/canley-vale-high-school-achieves-above-average-literacy-gains-for-four-years/news-story/34b104ea298957431c88ebe3e76aab2e

    If anyone wants to read that link, and I do recommend it, try this http://outline.com/VhD9Fb

  3. Much of Sydney, especially the CBD, has been a building site for decades, probably 23 of them. It made me think about how the economy and how capitalism works. There seems to be an ongoing project to replace every structure more than about 50-60 years old, certainly everything built pre-war, with just planning regulations and heritage preservation requirements standing in the way of its complete victory. It is self-sustaining. At times it has created massive holes in the ground that last for years, in the CBD and elsewhere, as from time to time it gets ahead of the economy, but they are eventually filled with a steel and glass tower. Lots of money is made and small businesses and people forced to move on and out. The unseen hand.

  4. Calamity has struck

    I take back everything I have said, thought and done regarding our great LNP.

    My wonderful Kindle HD is being difficult.

    Currently restoring. Dammit.
    Never mind, it could be worse, I could be a Liberal voter.
    😎

  9. It’s not much good Labor playing the blame game about the July 28 date of the five “Super Saturday” by-elections. In fair part, it has been the architect of its own troubles.

    If Opposition Leader Bill Shorten had agreed last year to dealing with any Labor MPs who had questionable citizenship status when they nominated, this would be over.

    But he insisted the Australian Labor Party members were all okay. They weren’t.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-25/super-saturday-federal-byelections-labor-bill-shorten-alp/9798742

    Correct, other than it was not in fair part, it was more-or-less completely.

    Burgey @ #1830 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 12:18 pm

    The simplest and best attack line Labor can use on tax is that they won’t be lectured to about it by a bloke who shoves his dough in the Cayman Islands.

    Good line. 🙂

  10. My view on the by elections date.

    Labor just should say Turnbull is running scared from a General Election.

  12. Boerwar @12:03PM: I mostly agree.

    Short version: Labor has to choose its battles.

    Slightly longer: Labor needs to choose its battles, not have them chosen for it, least of all by Murdoch, Dutton et al. Keep to the issues that most concern ordinary Australians, not chase policy rabbits down rabbit holes. To give one example, Labor can’t help asylum seekers from Opposition.

  13. Ven says: Friday, May 25, 2018 at 1:03 pm

    Is it true Hinch has resigned as Senator?

    ***********************************************************

    This ??????

    Senator Derryn Hinch quits Crikey column

    Victorian senator and media personality Derryn Hinch has resigned from his column at Crikey after two years.

    Hinch first launched the Crikey-exclusive column – Hinch’s Senate Diary – in August 2016. It promised to ‘expose the inner workings of Parliament House, giving readers behind-the-scenes access to life as a first-term MP.

    https://mumbrella.com.au/senator-derryn-hinch-quits-crikey-column-519741

  14. ItzaDream @ #5451 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 12:02 pm

    Bushfire Bill @ #1807 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 11:51 am

    The old Sydney is changing. That’s neither racism not dog-whistling. That’s just reality.

    My mother (b 1908) used to say that her father used to say that Sydney would be nice if they ever stop digging it up and just finish it. It’s not the change per se, but what is really causing the shock waves is the *rate* of change.

    I think KayJay would support me in saying that one could do a lot worse than moving to Newcastle. The old worker’s cottages in Islington are being rapidly gentrified, but I suspect that it’s going to be at least a decade before Hong Kong swallows the old working class patchwork, even along Bathers Way.

  15. Nicko @ #1824 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 12:30 pm

    Bemused.
    It is perfectly reasonable to counter Liberal rhetoric over taxes, by pointing out they are the ones to put in a new Tax that hits everyone indiscriminately.
    The GST did replace some taxes, but it also put taxes on things that weren’t taxed before, and also is regressive, and so is hurting the poorest in society.
    Labor has every right to point out this fact, when the Liberals bang on about taxes, when in fact the Liberals aernt about lower taxes, rather they are about shifting the burden on those who least can afford it.

    So you think the WST didn’t “hit everyone indiscriminately”?
    Clearly you have no understanding of it.
    Keating had earlier argued for a GST!
    The WST was complicated with various rates and the pattern of spending was shifting away from goods and more to services. So the GST was introduced to set one standard rate and to broaden the base to include services. I thought Beazley and later Crean were stupid in how they reacted to it.

  18. This is the second report on Motor Neurone Disease I’ve read recently that draws attention to the pocket of cases in the Riverina which might be due to Algae in the rivers. It’s postulated that the algal genetics have enough similarities with neuronal structure that an immune response to the algae overreaches and nerves might be collateral damage.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/motor-neurone-disease-if-you-were-to-design-the-cruellest-of-diseases-this-would-be-it-20180522-p4zgqi.html

    I have family in Deniliquin, and think of zoomster.

  19. Scripting.com@davewiner tweets

    On @chrislhayes just now we learned that Mueller has a dead man switch. If they start firing people they’ll press a Send on a pile of indictments.

  20. Steve777 @ #1846 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 1:10 pm

    Boerwar @12:03PM: I mostly agree.

    Short version: Labor has to choose its battles.

    Slightly longer: Labor needs to choose its battles, not have them chosen for it, least of all by Murdoch, Dutton et al. Keep to the issues that most concern ordinary Australians, not chase policy rabbits down rabbit holes. To give one example, Labor can’t help asylum seekers from Opposition.

    Inequality.

  21. Guys on immigration and Asylum Seekers.

    Make Dutton a figure of ridicule. The cartoonists are already at it.

  22. ItzaDream @ #1852 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 1:18 pm

    This is the second report on Motor Neurone Disease I’ve read recently that draws attention to the pocket of cases in the Riverina which might be due to Algae in the rivers. It’s postulated that the algal genetics have enough similarities with neuronal structure that an immune response to the algae overreaches and nerves might be collateral damage.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/motor-neurone-disease-if-you-were-to-design-the-cruellest-of-diseases-this-would-be-it-20180522-p4zgqi.html

    I have family in Deniliquin, and think of zoomster.

    zoomster is well upstream from affected areas. Near some small settlement up in the hills.

  24. Bemused,

    I think Labor can point to plenty of work it’s done on the revenue side of things to back up its attack lines. They’ve basically been leading the way on tax policy since before the last election.

    I do want to see them more clearly set out that their changes to -ive gearing are not retrospective though. That’s a very important point to get out.

  26. rhwombat @ #1848 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 1:11 pm

    ItzaDream @ #5451 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 12:02 pm

    Bushfire Bill @ #1807 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 11:51 am

    The old Sydney is changing. That’s neither racism not dog-whistling. That’s just reality.

    My mother (b 1908) used to say that her father used to say that Sydney would be nice if they ever stop digging it up and just finish it. It’s not the change per se, but what is really causing the shock waves is the *rate* of change.

    I think KayJay would support me in saying that one could do a lot worse than moving to Newcastle. The old worker’s cottages in Islington are being rapidly gentrified, but I suspect that it’s going to be at least a decade before Hong Kong swallows the old working class patchwork, even along Bathers Way.

    Totally. I have a sister and nephews and nieces in Newcastle, so have some insights into what you have there, plus fond memories of the Flyer easing its way next to Hunter Street to a gentle final stop, for those who didn’t get off at Broadmeadow.

    Luck would have it that there wasn’t the money or the need to rip it apart in the 60’s – 90’s, and so agree it is a treasure of old loveliness.

    Plus I did well in a bike race at Kooragang Island, so there’s that!

    Reminder, there’s a full day D C Symposium at the Kirby Institute the day after the Memorial.

  27. ….that said, my river isn’t subject to algal blooms (it’s one of the purest water sources in the world, a hydrologist once told me…).

  28. zoomster @ #1857 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 1:25 pm

    Itza

    I’ve friends who have only just left Deniliquin after living there for decades…

    My father used to jackaroo a bit north, in the 20’s, around Hell, Hay, and Booligal. (Eurugabah actually.) I have a faded sepia photo of him by a billy and a bough hut, with his dog. Something stays in you.

  30. ItzaDream (Block)
    Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 1:27 pm
    Comment #1860

    rhwombat @ #1848 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 1:11 pm

    ItzaDream @ #5451 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 12:02 pm

    Bushfire Bill @ #1807 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 11:51 am

    ♫♪Those were the day, my friend,
    ♪♫We thought they’d never end…

    I have restored my Kindle.
    Reading time, then off to see my (he’s not really mine) GP. Prescriptions mostly.

    bonne après-midi 😎

  31. There is one thing that is depressingly consistent in Michelle Grattan’s piece on ABC today which is her inability to get away from her well-worn script. How many times has she written along the theme that…….wtte, the “next big test for…………….”(fill in the missing name) and “while X is safe in the leadership at the moment……………” the outcome could have “serious ramifications………….”leading in the next election”…….. – and so on, and so on?
    I used to think she had something sensible/consistent/insightful to say but that was when she was at her best – this is now, obviously, years ago. I wonder, when it comes to press conferences offered by the PM of the day, she calls out “Malcolm” to attract his attention. She sure as hell was quite happy to call out “Julia” in the time of PMJG time. She may be the doyen of the CPG, but she represents to me why it currently lacks much credibility.
    And of the not-so-flattering picture of Shorten set against Turnbull – this is nothing out of the ordinary – and to be fair, the media also looks for lousy mug-shots of LNP pollies. The media, as a group, then wonders why it has lost so much credibility when it comes up with this and like stunts.

  32. I remember arriving by train at Central Station in Sydney one very hot summers day in 1982 and thinking it looked like a big brick town as apposed to a “city” like London or Paris.

    Caught a bus to nearby Glebe & feeling a bit thirsty dropped into the Ancient Briton for a beer. No one and I mean no one at the bar looked under 60, all with beer coasters covering there glasses because the ceiling fans made the beer go flat, supposedly.

    “Here’s a blow in” said one old cocky to the barman.

    I loved that old town.

  33. Regarding “tests”.

    If you look at in regards to the Prime Ministership the CPG isn’t far off the mark.

    Turnbull is the Prime Minister and has had two “tests”, the initial challenge of Abbott and the last election.

    For Shorten, he wants to be the Prime Minister and ultimately failed his first test at the last election, despite improving Labor’s position, so his challenge is to maintain his leadership so he can face the test at the next election.

    Anything that potentially damages his leadership of Labor may ultimately effect his ability to stand in the next test.

    One element in his favour are the Labor leadership rules which even in Opposition do not allow a quick transition from one leader to another.

    This is where I think the CPG largely miss the point regarding Shorten and his leadership, in contrast the Liberals can act overnight in ousting Turnbull. 🙂

  36. I understand what BB is saying about a suburb that gradually changes around you. I grew up in Sydney and when I look at Google maps satellite view, the area around my childhood home is completely different. It all happened gradually and certainly before “waves of immigrants” appeared.

    Foley used clumsy words but the message he conveyed would certainly resonate with many people in a city like Sydney. My parents saw the writing on the wall a long time ago and moved to a much quieter location well away from Sydney.

  38. mikehilliard says: Friday, May 25, 2018 at 2:27 pm

    I remember arriving by train at Central Station in Sydney one very hot summers day in 1982 and thinking it looked like a big brick town as apposed to a “city” like London or Paris.

    *************************************************

    The one and only time I have been to Sydney was when I had a 2 week stay in a hotel in Wolloollmoolo with an AfricanAmerican GF that I had met in Los Angeles some time before.

    We had just gone down one day to Harry’s Café De Wheels overlooking the Fingers wharf apartments – and who should ride by on his pushbike was Russell Crowe – Miss LA could not believe it – I yelled out “Hi Russell” – well blow me down he stop peddling and rode over towards us – I think he twigged when he saw my black friend – he looked at me, reached out his hand and shook mine and said ” Hey G’day Mate – long time no see ” – she almost fainted – anyway he spoke to us for a good 10 or so minutes asking her about LA and his next movie to be filmed there ……. I never quite let on that Russell had pulled a fast one on her – but it made my day and I’ll never forget when I was a *friend* of Russell Crowe

  40. “The simplest and best attack line Labor can use on tax is that they won’t be lectured to about it by a bloke who shoves his dough in the Cayman Islands.”

    and add that he made his first million advising Kerry Packer how to pay no tax.

    if shorten’s affairs are in order he should release his tax statement and ask Turnbull to do the same.

  41. citizen @ #1871 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 2:52 pm

    Foley used clumsy words …

    Foley used a racially charged term that originated during the civil rights upheavals in the USA in the 50’s and 60’s.

    If he did so unknowingly he’s a total nitwit. If he did so knowingly, he’s a dog-whistling disgrace.

    Actually, he might be both.

  43. Ah Harry’s Cafe de Wheels, there was nothing like a hot dog with mushy peas & chilli sauce at 2am after a night out in the X.

  44. Everything was a test. Everything was a competition. Life put them in front of you every day. You watched yourself all the time. You had to make choices. You never got told which ones were right. Oh, some of the priests said you got given marks afterwards but what was the point of that?

    – Terry Pratchett

  47. sustainable future

    Truffles also mentioned in the Panama Papers. Tax ‘minimization’ (cough) AND Russians .

    No need to ask how Rupert Media would have hounded a Labor PM with such tax “minimization” schemes and
    Pусский connections. ‘Moscow Mal’ 😆

    Malcolm Turnbull named in Panama Papers

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is named in the Panama Papers as a former director of a British Virgin Islands company set up and administered by law firm Mossack Fonseca to exploit a Siberian gold prospect.

    http://www.afr.com/news/politics/malcolm-turnbull-named-in-panama-papers-20160511-gosvit

  48. grimace says:
    Friday, May 25, 2018 at 11:05 am

    grimace, the appointees in the new government who are making the choices on education matters have made several decisions that are simply partisan, ideological or arrogant or all three. This is really disappointing and will hurt Labor.

  49. CNN’s Don Lemon annihilates Trump ‘family of grifters’: They’re abusing the Constitution for personal gain

    CNN’s Don Lemon opened his show with an epic takedown of Trump and his family, who he said are “stomping all over the norms that have kept the government running for centuries.”

    He had guest Fareed Zakaria on to talk about the Trumps. “I’ve never seen anything like it,” said Zakaria.

    Lemon compared Trump to the Obamas—classy, upstanding, ethical.

    “This is completely different,” he said. “Just objectively if you look at this president and this president it seems to be a family of grifters who have gotten ahold of the executive offices and using it for their own purposes.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/05/cnns-don-lemon-annihilates-trump-family-grifters-theyre-abusing-constitution-personal-gain/

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