Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Essential’s two-party gap narrows to its lowest point in 18 months, despite Labor’s tax and budget policies being favoured over the Coalition’s.

We have an Essential Research poll for the third week in a row, last week’s post-budget poll having been additional to the normal fortnightly cycle, rather than an adjustment. The result is the Coalition’s best from Essential since November 2016, with the Labor lead down to 51-49 from 52-48 last week, and 53-47 the week before. Primary votes will be with us when the full report is published later today. UPDATE: Full report here. The Coalition is up two to 40%, Labor is steady on 36%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are up a point to 8%.

This is despite a range of results on tax and budget matters that are uniformly favourable for Labor and/or unfavourable for the Coalition. As reported by The Guardian, the poll finds Labor’s income tax policy favoured over the Coalition’s by 45% to 33%, and 44% favouring Labor’s “increasing spending on health and education while giving a tax cut to low and middle-income earners”, over “the Coalition’s approach, which is to give both companies and workers a tax cut”. Sixty per cent said they did not want company tax cuts to proceed; 50% supported Labor’s proposed tightening of negative gearing, with 24% opposed; and 42% supported Labor’s dividend imputation policy, with 27% opposed. However, the two parties were tied at 32% on the question of best party to manage a fair tax system, with 22% saying it made no difference.

The funding cut to the ABC was supported by 35% and opposed by 45%, and 36% supported the cut to the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, with 39% opposed. Questions on a republic found 48% supportive and 30% opposed, with 65% favouring direct election of a head of state compared with just 9% for “a governor-general style appointment by the prime minister of the day”, and 12% for appointment by a two-thirds majority of a joint sitting of parliament.

Also note the post for the Western Australia’s Darling Range by-election immediately below this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,114 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Douglas and Milko

    Yes the Murdoch trick. Put the damage in the headline to appear at newsagents.

    Even though for anyone that read the article the context is clear. Foley was not using white flight in a racist way.

  2. There is very few in the NSW Labor Party that are probably capable of being leader. Foley and Jodi McKay are probably the only Labor MPs with a media profile of sorts. Id say that Penny Sharpe in the upper may have a small profile but the last time she tried to move to the lower that went really well for her (not). Edit: maybe Michael Daley as well.

    Labor really needs to cultivate some new talent and get them out into the spotlight. Ie Jihad Dib, Ryan Park etc.

  3. briefly @ #1773 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 7:59 am

    I listened to this person for a while…. the only one to do so, as far I saw. She impressed me as a reluctant protestor but a sincere one, as someone motivated by the welfare of her community. It saddens me that a good argument is not enough to get a good outcome. She is powerless and easily forgotten by those who hold power. There were plenty of the powerful in attendance on Monday night. The protestor and her cause were of no interest to them. That is a decidedly dejecting thought.

    Well many of the partisan attitudes that you and others express here explain why this is the case!

    There is no political gain, so there is no political pain.

    Yes, this attitude is stronger on the right but it still exists in Labor. 🙂

  4. Nicko @ #1770 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 10:58 am

    It is the Liberals who introduced an economy wide tax, the GST, they are the party of great big new taxes.

    That is nonsense.
    The GST replaced the Wholesale Sales Tax and a number of other taxes.
    Hyperbole and inaccuracies like that do not help the argument.

    When the Libs go on about Labor being high taxing, high spending, I would like to see Labor take it head on and say something like: “Yes, we will tax those who can afford it more and we will close the loopholes and rorts. Yes, we will spend more on all the things you the voters want like better healthcare, education, infrastructure, public transport etc. Do you have a problem with that?”

  5. @DAE –
    “Fairly certain that simply placing “that” word in quotation marks does not absolve you of responsibility for using it.

    In what context do you suggest a “honky” (Jesus, is it 1972?) might use it appropriately?

    I’m dying to know.”

    If you sit on four pots of beer staring into the middle distance for several hours, you might work it out.

    BTW – what was wrong with 1972? Richard Roundtree and Pam Greer were both in their prime!

  6. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Friday, May 25, 2018 at 10:52 am

    …”lemming-like tendencies of the bohobo left’s desire to outstupid the Greens on virtue signalling”…


    GED Kearney and others would undoubtedly appreciate being described as such.

    Bill Shorten, on the other hand, would probably stick his right-wing boot fair up your arse if you said it in front of him.

  7. DAE – Good luck to Bill if he wanted to try that. He’d need it. Luckily, we are of one mind on the subject. Thankfully, I’m in a position to indulge myself. He has to use tact and diplomacy (not my strong suits) with the bohobos & to good effect as well.

  8. On the subject of leadership of Labor NSW.

    I was one of those that thought that Foley should be replaced. I no longer think that.

    The reason is because we have seen polling where Foley has brought Labor to be competitive
    Now this attack on him by the Murdoch press.

    Two reasons I think Mr Foley is doing something right.

  9. Biden Unleashes On GOP In A Campaign-Style Speech That Should Terrify Trump

    The former veep and potential 2020 candidate delivered a message that Democrats should run with: Values matter and Republicans have none.

    “This is not your father’s Republican Party,” Biden said in the fiery speech, according to the Associated Press. “They are not who we are. They are not who America is.”

    He said Republicans are “sending a vision of America around the world that is distorted. That is damaging. That is hurting us.”

    Biden added: “This phony populism, this fake nationalism… It’s time to say ‘no more.’”

    https://www.politicususa.com/2018/05/24/biden-unleashes-gop-trump.html

  10. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Friday, May 25, 2018 at 11:24 am

    …”BTW – what was wrong with 1972? Richard Roundtree and Pam Greer were both in their prime!”…


    I would like to be present when you dropped the N bomb in front of either of those people.

  11. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Friday, May 25, 2018 at 11:30 am

    …”Good luck to Bill if he wanted to try that”…


    Ya reckon you could take him?

  12. Question for anyone who has been blocked by Trump.

    Why were you following him in the first place? 🙂

  13. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Friday, May 25, 2018 at 11:30 am

    …”Luckily, we are of one mind on the subject”…


    He would unlikely wish to be in charge of a party made up entirely of the Boerwar’s and Andrew Earlwood’s of this world.
    And if his attitude is as you claim, then he ain’t gonna last very long as PM, is he?

  14. DTT wrote:

    As retirement looms, she is seeking friendship and a sense of community. Relocation to a seaside (mostly white) neighbourhood or an over 50s retirement village makes sense.

    Change “she” to “he” and you get “me”.

    I saw “my” suburb in Sydney have it’s village shops demolished to make way for 600 apartments, noodle bars, sushi restaurants and a massage parlour. It took two years to effect the change, two years where, even to buy a packet of corn-flakes or a jar of instant coffee, you had to get in a car, travel several kilometres each way to a supermarket, jostling for lane space with endless queues of B-Doubles day and night because the main traffic artery was partially closed for three years to allow construction of a tunnel under it, compete for parking, purchase your item and then repeat it all on the way back.

    At the bottom of our quiet little leafy cul de sac, 25 metres underground and 4o metres from where I slept, the North West Metro tunnels were being bored, with accompanying rumbling and disruption 24 hours per day. Not only did my suburb not score at least it’s own metro station out of this upheaval to its amenity, but its easy public transport access to the CBD (and just about any other point south) was about to be cut off for two years while all the railway stations on the line were closed so their platforms could be widened for the new Metro railstock.

    Our dogs died a few years ago, and the grandsons grew up, got girlfriends and started making excuses for not visiting us during school holidays. So, there wasn’t a real lot keeping us there.

    Chinese people moved in either side and began concreting their yards and cutting down trees, big trees, not just shrubs. A family of black cockatoos used to come every year on their lonely nomadic journey. They rested in the same tree each season. It was 25metres tall. Then our new neighbours cut it down because it spooked their concreting ambitions. No more black cockatoos.

    The local primary school, for its sins, does well -very well – in NAPLAN tests. Cue influx of Asian mums and dads keen for their little ones to do well. The school reacted by having the catchment truncated, but all that resulted in was greater competition for scarcer space around the immediate vicinity, bushland all of it. They were and are prepared to pay big bucks for the privilege of a free state primary school education, with Kings or Monte St Angelo to follow for high school, if not the (also NAPLAN rich) state girls high school.

    The frantic pace was too much for us. Yes, some of it was age-related, some of it was the ridiculous prices people were prepared to pay for our shack, but some of it too was culture shock. Over the years I’ve “adapted” several times in my life, but I didn’t have another adaptation left in me. Call it “White Flight” if you like, or call it culture fatigue. The whole manic Asian “high achiever with bonus concrete” thing got too much for me. Our purchasers made us an offer we couldn’t refuse and so we got out. Out of 29 couples who inspected our house, 1 was “Anglo” (they bought elsewhere). The entire street has gone from “all Anglo” to “all Asian” (lovely people, all of them – except the tree murderers) in 15 years. Such is life. Time to move on.

    Where we are now is much quieter, much more beautiful and much more relaxed. There are no tollways, B-Doubles, traffic jams, or concrete vegie patches. Everyone gets along, the dogs wander the streets unleashed, and there is almost zero competition for every available space, either physical or emotional.

    Where we have moved from has become a rat race. In a few years it’ll be an enclave, and eventually a ghetto (if adjoining suburbs are any guide).

    The old Sydney is changing. It’s changing because “Anglos” are moving out to make way for immigrants moving in. That’s neither racism not dog-whistling. That’s just reality.

  15. “Question for anyone who has been blocked by Trump.
    Why were you following him in the first place? ”

    You don’t need to be a follower to be blocked – you just can’t view the blocker tweets.

    For example, I’m blocked by Emma Alberici but had never had any contact with her previously (same as J Bishop). The ABC must have generated a block list of people that criticize the organization.

  16. guytaur @ #1804 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 11:48 am

    ABC News tweets

    Amazon’s Alexa recorded a family’s private conversation and sent it to a random contact https://ab.co/2LtqI0N https://twitter.com/abcnews/status/999829267188871168/photo/1

    More proof we need a Human Rights Bill to include Digital Privacy and your sovereign right to control your privacy

    Nah
    I can’t understand why anyone would get either this or the apple one. As if it’s not going to eavesdrop.

  17. ItzaDream (Block)
    Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 11:36 am
    Comment #1798

    KayJay @ #1793 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 11:27 am

    Ah hah. Thanks for the great work. And to boot, I have a special aversion to gold ties, and baubles in button holes.

    I loved the clip with Stephen King. What a fascinating guy. Bizarro Trump saith the man.

    A suggestion, if you will:-
    Lean a little closer while I whisper —

    What about a gold tie and baubles in a different hole (Malcolm’s) ❓

    Resume normal transmission. 😜

  18. VP

    I have not bought the Apple One. There is a difference between it and the rest however. Its very limited.
    It was designed for music not to eavesdrop so it does not listen all the time as the other devices do.

    To activate it you have to say Hey Siri. It does not have the microphones on when you don’t do that.

    However as I said I don’t even have that one due to privacy concerns.
    It only takes a good hacker to get the microphone turned on.

    I say that with the full knowledge of having a phone that has the same vulnerability of course.

    Its why I am so passionate about a Digital privacy bill.
    We should do the most we can to have the benefits of the technology without throwing away our privacy

  19. DAE –

    “I would like to be present when you dropped the N bomb in front of either of those people.”

    Why would I ever do that? Unless I was cast as an actor playing a ‘dumb white trash’ character opposite them? Or they attended some symposium on language with me and the ‘n bomb’ was on topic (there – two examples of an appropriate use in context of the word ‘nigger’). …

    It seems like you are deliberately trying to turn my words against me. Too funny, given THAT is the exact point I was making about the dangers of politicians using politically charged language.

  20. Bushfire Bill @ #1807 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 11:51 am

    The old Sydney is changing. That’s neither racism not dog-whistling. That’s just reality.

    My mother (b 1908) used to say that her father used to say that Sydney would be nice if they ever stop digging it up and just finish it. It’s not the change per se, but what is really causing the shock waves is the *rate* of change.

  21. I support Mr Shorten because I think he will make a good prime minister who has values that more nearly overlap my values than do Turnbull’s values.
    I support most but not all of Labor’s policies.
    I believe that poor people, young, old people, sick people and the environment will all consistently do better under Labor than under the Liberals regardless of what the policy platforms say.
    I support the formation of a Labor Government.
    I believe that when Labor forms government and is faced by new situations, it will generally but not always react the way in which I would wish it to.
    As opposed to the Coalition which is exactly the reverse. It hardly ever does what I want it to.
    I am ready to compromise on some of my views now in order to give most of values a serious go in a Labor Government.
    I am willing to avoid giving Murdoch and Dutton any unnecessary ammunition. I deplore stupidities like Burney’s transcript foolishness.
    I deplore the do gooders feeding Dutton ammunition on asylum seekers. What the fuck are they thinking? That another three years of Dutton will actually help asylum seekers?
    What I am unwilling to do is to wreck Labor’s chances at the next election by profitless virtue signalling, chasing counter-productive policy rats down ratholes, or offering up trillion dollar nostrums at the drop of a hat.
    Most of what the Far Left is caterwauling about will get addressed regardless of what the policy settings are.
    Being right at the cost of the poor, young people, old people and the environment is such a circle jerk!
    If Labor’s Far Left wants this sort of useless jumping at shadows they should go and join the Greens. Maybe they dig up another virtuous trillion dollar promise to resettle all of the world’s refugees?

    In government it is values that count and not what some self-reightious stand up comedians foisted on the Party during a National Conference.

  22. BB

    There are lots of big developments also here in Melbourne.
    Some suburbs depending on their position, are getting more than others.
    Some of it doesn’t make any sense apart from the whole aspect of developers and their friends making huge wads of cash as a result.
    Seems like your suburb is one that got the whole box and dice.
    Glad you are enjoying your sea change

  23. Boomy

    I agree with most of BW’s post. He spoiled it with his comedians comment.

    Is he calling Ged Kearney a comedian?

    All of the Victorian Labor party members that agreed to a rational debate on being humane to refugees?

    Other than that it was a fair enough post.

  24. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Friday, May 25, 2018 at 12:00 pm

    …It seems like you are deliberately trying to turn my words against me. Too funny, given THAT is the exact point I was making about the dangers of politicians using politically charged language”…


    I would think that calling the left-faction of your own party silly names might be considered politically charged language, don’t you?
    And if I WAS turning your words against you, the reasoning behind this should be obvious.

  25. guytaur @ #1817 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 12:09 pm

    Eliza Barr tweets

    Forget what you’ve heard. Please let me introduce you to the real Fairfield. It’s wonderful. You’ll love it. 96 percent of these Canley Vale kids come from non-English speaking background and they’re literally KILLING it at NAPLAN. https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/fairfield-advance/canley-vale-high-school-achieves-above-average-literacy-gains-for-four-years/news-story/34b104ea298957431c88ebe3e76aab2e

    Very interesting. Thanks.

    https://www.outline.com/VhD9Fb

  26. Bemused.
    It is perfectly reasonable to counter Liberal rhetoric over taxes, by pointing out they are the ones to put in a new Tax that hits everyone indiscriminately.
    The GST did replace some taxes, but it also put taxes on things that weren’t taxed before, and also is regressive, and so is hurting the poorest in society.
    Labor has every right to point out this fact, when the Liberals bang on about taxes, when in fact the Liberals aernt about lower taxes, rather they are about shifting the burden on those who least can afford it.

  27. I love the mix of cultures that is Western Sydney.

    I hate what the councils are allowing in regards to development. The roads were not designed to handle the volume of traffic. We have the luxury of a small set of shops within walking distance and the streets are tree lined with a great view of the Blue Mountains. You can’t drive to the shops,nowhere to park.
    Our street had 52 homes some of which have been demolished and town houses put in their place which means there are now 85 dwellings in the same street. It has become an obstacle course to drive. All the surrounding streets have the same thing happening. This is why people are getting pissed off.

  28. Boerwar says:
    Friday, May 25, 2018 at 12:03 pm

    …”If Labor’s Far Left wants this sort of useless jumping at shadows they should go and join the Greens”…


    If that happens, and I suspect it might if Shorten takes your attitude as Prime Minister, then within one term, he will be in precisely the same spot Gillard was in 2010.

    He will fail, and be reliant on a whole bunch of people who voted for him once but couldn’t do so twice.
    The Green’s would be the beneficiaries of this.

    As luck would have it, I think he is probably a fair bit smarter than you.

  29. Oh @JulianAssange… it’s almost extradition time. Which is very bad news for Fairbanks, Johnson, Don Jr, Stone, and the rest of #TeamTreason.

    That line of thinking makes no sense. If Assange is extradited the only thing he’s going to do is offer up a rabid defence of Trump and Russia (and anyone else Trump wants him to defend).

  30. The simplest and best attack line Labor can use on tax is that they won’t be lectured to about it by a bloke who shoves his dough in the Cayman Islands.

  31. guytaur @ #1823 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 12:20 pm

    This group was Founded by ACON and has had former Justice Michael Kirby as its Patron now being replaced by Jennifer Westacott and Alan Joyce.

    Kirby again. What an indefatigable and committed honourable man.

    From the UNSW Kirby Institute

    Mr Kirby has served on many national and international bodies, including as a member of the World Health Organisation’s Global Commission on AIDS (1988 – 1992); President of the International Commission of Jurists, Geneva (1995 – 1998); as UN Special Representative Human Rights in Cambodia (1993 – 1996); a member of the UNESCO International Bioethics Committee (1995 – 2005); a member of the High Commissioner for Human Rights’ Judicial Reference Group (2007 –) and a member of the UNAIDS Reference Group on HIV and Human Rights (2004 –). He is currently a member of the UN High Level Panel on Access to Medicines.

    Which leads me to ask, what happened to that self-important idiot hayseed Heffernan? Dealing with the ‘worst ever drought’ by any chance?

  32. Barney

    Weil Trump could publish the lot of the JFK report if he gets desperatefor distraction with the NorthKorea game almost played out. He only didn’t before due to some GOP members saying no to him.

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