The Australian reports Labor’s two-party lead in Newspoll is unchanged at 51-49, but Malcolm Turnbull has enjoyed a big hike on preferred prime minister, his lead out from 38-35 to 46-32. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39%, Labor to 38%, while the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are down one to 6%. Malcolm Turnbull is up three on approval to 39% and down three on disapproval to 50%; Bill Shorten is down one on 33% and up one to 55%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1728.
By contrast, an Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor’s lead out from 52-48 a month ago to 54-46, which partly reflects the fact that Ipsos is sticking with a straight application of 2016 election preferences. A separate result based on respondent-allocated preferences has it at 53-47, out from 50-50 last time. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (steady), Labor 37% (up three), the Greens 11% (down one) and One Nation 5% (down three). Malcolm Turnbull is up four on approval to 51% and down four on disapproval to 39%, Bill Shorten is up one to 39% and down two to 51%, and Turnbull leads 52-32 as preferred prime minister, little changed from 52-31 last time.
Both polls also feature results on budget response, which produce the strongest results for impact on personal finances of any budget since the extravaganzas of 2007 and 2008. Newspoll found 29% saying it would make them better off and 27% worse off, which is the first net positive result since 2007, albeit that this was aided by an eight point spike in the “uncommitted” result. The respective numbers from Ipsos were 38%, the highest since 2006, and 25%. However, 57% of Ipsos respondents said they would prefer the money from the tax cuts instead go to pay off government debt, compared with 37% who favoured the cuts.
Newspoll also found 41% rating the budget good, up five on last year, and 26% bad, down one; but Labor did better than last year on the question of whether they could have done better, with 37% for yes (up four) and 44% for no (down three). Forty-eight per cent rated Malcolm Turnbull more capable of handling the economy compared with 31% for Bill Shorten; 38% rated Scott Morrison the better economic manager compared with 31% for Chris Bowen; and 51% said Labor should support the seven year tax-cut package, with 28% opposed.
Below are two displays putting the Newspoll results in the context of the similar polling that has been conducted after every budget of the past 30 years. The first of these plots the net personal impact result against the net economic impact, with this budget illustrated by the red dot. It shows the budget ranking fifth out of 31 budget on personal impact, with the top four having run in succession from 2004 to 2007. However, the result for economic impact is only slightly above average, at plus 15% compared with plus 10.9%. The red dot’s position below the trendline confirms that this was a budget whose benefits were seen as relatively favouring personal rather than broader economic impact.
The second chart records the net result for the “would the opposition have done better” question (Coalition governments in blue, Labor in red), on which the latest budget equals the horror 2014 budget as the best result ever recorded by Labor. The Coalition tends to do better on this question, and on budget response questions more generally, but even it only managed a net positive result after the other conspicuously poorly received budget within the Newspoll time frame, namely that brought down by John Dawkins after Labor’s unexpected 1993 election victory.
Poroti
Seriously stupid. the history of the world is littered with conflict even among people from the same culture. the idea that the UK, USA or Australia are somehow the bad guys is ridiculous. what other places have great human rights,China, India, Pakistan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Russia, Middle East? You tell me.
Sorry but I value our western society, especially if you are a woman.
For as much as it is worth, local ABC news at 6 am in Perth did not mention anything about any poll…..and then only passing reference in a later bulletin – in which the Truffles pick up in numbers was commented upon. I doubt whether we will hear much cheering in the streets from the LNP just yet. There is also some grumpiness locally that the Libs are not contesting either of Perth or Freo. Freo I can understand, but while I think the Libs would maybe not win Perth they could give it a shake. Gutless, or broke, wonders I guess.
It was interesting this morning to hear an ABC radio political reporter (whose name escapes me) state that the 2PP results of Newspoll and Ipsos today were “arguably as significant” as the improvement in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings.
“Arguably”?
One metric indicates who will actually win the election; while the other tells us who will be the most popular loser.
Geez, if I was a politician, I know which side of which supposed “argument” I would like to be on.
I know I’m going to receive brickbats for this, but I don’t understand the value of the ‘space race’. Thousands of jobs to be created? Doing what?
More rubbish floating around the globe, like in the sea?
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/05/14/australia-space-agency-jobs/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%2020180514
I think the reliance on 65-35 split to PHON to the Libs will probably hurt Newspoll in the end. True, the 50/50 split from 2016 probably isn’t correct, but using Qld and WA as the basis of a national split probably isn’t correct. So, assuming somewhere in between, the primaries support a 2PP somewhere closer to the Ipsos respondent-allocated.
Lizzie
Thousands of jobs – citation needed. Ala the same as Adani’s false ‘10,000 jobs’
And the timing of the Rosneft deal and the Trump Tower meeting Avenatti has been tweeting about align.
https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/The-Mysterious-Rosneft-Deal-And-Its-Consequences.html
Fess – apparently last year Avenatti won the biggest damages case in US history … he is not unknown in the US – he is based in California, whereas we generally hear about Washington or NY lawyers
zoomster @ #195 Monday, May 14th, 2018 – 6:10 am
Fantastic!!!!
Leave any preconceptions behind and remember it’s not Australia, so don’t try and make so!
Explore as much as possible and be a sponge and suck up all the experiences.
A bad experience is just one you don’t learn from!!! 🙂
Watching all the happy happy faces on the mainstreamers telly shows this morning reporting the good news for Malky…..poor Bill, he’ll never never cut through…
Andrew_Earlwood @ #114 Monday, May 14th, 2018 – 8:38 am
Andrew
You do seem to know somethig about polling (and internal ALP politics) so I will attempt to have a sensible exchange of views.
I basically agree with you but I am concerned about the One Nation factor -not so much PHON itself but the people who voted for them. This is of course particularly relevant in Longman where there is a 9% PHON vote for the taking plus another 12% in minors. Moreover in 2013 there was a 12% PUP vote.
Longman is one of those seats that is only recently been part of the labor camp and is a swinger. It is One Nation heartland – many street signs etc. It is I think pretty alienated. Like many Qld seats it is very mixed, including for example the retirement centres of Bribie Island, the working class and low end residential areas of Caboolture and the full on Industrial zones of Morayfield and Narangbah as well as a strait out rural town of Woodford.
Jen:
I did not know that. Thanks.
Late Riser @ #194 Monday, May 14th, 2018 – 9:09 am
Quite right. Depending on how the picture is presented – from inside ones Twitter account or from a direct address -f’rinstance.
And another one – shown later. ☕
zoomster @ #131 Monday, May 14th, 2018 – 9:10 am
Avoid church!
Confessions says: Monday, May 14, 2018 at 9:30 am
Steven Beschloss@StevenBeschloss
2h2 hours ago
If @MichaelAvenatti can prove that Trump got a cut of the Rosneft deal, then it’s case closed on conspiracy with Russia.
And the timing of the Rosneft deal and the Trump Tower meeting Avenatti has been tweeting about align.
https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/The-Mysterious-Rosneft-Deal-And-Its-Consequences.html
**********************************************************
I think THIS is the link that Michael Avenatti is alluding to – and it backs up what was reported in the Steele Dossier ….. a kickback for lifting sanctions ….
Scandal, What Scandal?
The controversial Trump dossier published in January 2017 suggested that Rosneft’s CEO Igor Sechin had offered Page, who is a known close associate of Sechin, the brokerage of the 19.5 percent stake in Rosneft in July 2016 – in exchange for the lifting of U.S. sanctions, should Trump be elected president.
Jenauthor
I still think Avenatti is getting leaks. Just like deepthroat did in the watergate scandal.
Zoomster
Great experience for your son. Tell him to enjoy. My daughter who is doing her masters, is due to go to Munich later this year as an exchange. So I am hoping she enjoys it too!
A Newscorp journo tells the truth!
Sky News political reporter @samanthamaiden: The better Prime Minister Newspoll result has zero impact on their electorate. What matters is the primary and two-party preferred results.
MORE: https://bit.ly/2Ih3gWY #headsup
phoenixRed:
It would certainly seem that’s what he’s getting at.
Tea Pain
Tea Pain
@TeaPainUSA
If what @MichaelAvenatti is sayin’ is true, then we have verified one of the biggest pieces of the Steele Dossier. This involves the sale of 19.5% of Rosneft Oil and pushes the corruption/collusion/bribery numbers into the billions. Yep, BILLIONS!
Michael Avenatti
@MichaelAvenatti
Why was Ahmed Al-Rumaihi meeting with Michael Cohen and Michael Flynn in December 2016 and why did Mr. Al-Rumaihi later brag about bribing administration officials according to a sworn declaration filed in court?
Show this thread
8:30 AM · May 14, 2018
lizzie @ #204 Monday, May 14th, 2018 – 6:19 am
It’s a field that is about pushing the boundaries of what is known and how can we achieve things.
They are looking for solutions to new problems and finding new solutions to old ones.
All these discoveries have the potential to feed back into how we live our lives and do things on Earth.
The poor dears at Fairfax certainly have been dealt poor hand in the Budget-boosting stakes, haven’t they? 54-46 hardly gives them any wriggle room at all.
Meanwhile, over at News Corp, the delusion that our politics are Presidential staggers on. Newspoll’s 51-49 hardly rates a mention anywhere in the news cycle today, but even the Commonwealth Bank wouldn’t accept the “Preferred Prime Minister” three-dollar bill for deposit at any of its dodgy ATMs, “smart” or otherwise.
Ipsos is probably too harsh on the government, while Newspoll is clearly too nice to them. If I was into devilish tricks I’d be wondering whether News Corp isn’t trying to loll Turnbull into a false sense of security. Of course, as we know, Newspoll has never been faked, or even gamed (accountancy tricks with the method of preference allocation notwithstanding), so we must put aside foul play as an option. News Corp, as we are all aware, is as straight as a die.
Whatever the explanation for the contradictory polls, we are left with an interesting situation where half the CPG is claiming the budget was a Triumph and the other half is forced to conclude that it was a Disaster. Would that be a “triumphant disaster” or a “disastrous triumph”?
And, if you really want a chuckle, imagine if Newspoll had been a point – or even two points – better! “Shit-fight” would be too kind a word for it.
We should leave it to William to make sense of all this, but even he must be scratching his head by now.
As the media houses go to war we can only speculate as to who is armed with Shermans and who is driving the King Tiger. Whatever the case, only a fool would claim the Budget was the bazooka ScoMo brags it was.
And in politics nowadays there’s no shortage of them (fools I mean).
Ale @aliasvaughn
. So to be clear, @MichaelAvenatti is showing us that a. there are video and photo receipts, and telling us that b. Mr. Al.Rumaihi BRAGGED about bribing Trump admin officials in a SWORN DECLARATION FILED IN COURT. See why SDNY involved public corruption unit?
And if you want background on Mr Al Rumaihi, see this Mother Jones piece. He was accused of scheming to bribe Trump people in a recent lawsuit filed by Ice Cube, the rapper and actor, and his business partner Jeff Kwatinetz.
The other salient point is that Mr. Al Rumaihi runs the foreign division of Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund. And that fund? Is the biggest shareholder in ROSNEFT, the Russian state oil company
Qatari Investor Accused in Bribery Plot Appears With Michael Cohen in Picture Posted by Stormy Daniel’s Lawyer
He’s shown meeting with Cohen at Trump Tower shortly after the election.
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/05/qatari-investor-accused-in-bribery-plot-appears-with-michael-cohen-in-picture-posted-by-stormy-daniels-lawyer/
lizzie
The Abbott Government cut Fed govt support for the space industry to virtually nothing. The Turnbull Government partially fixes this with $41 million over forward estimates.
Back in 2005, OECD countries budgeted $46 billion for a single year into space industries.
Cash is essentially BRAGGING about a Coalition-driven situation in which we have no space industry, no jobs in space industry, and where we send huge amounts of money overseas to countries that were not asleep at the wheel. The double whammy is that these are the companies that Turnbull wants to give a tax cut to.
Treason is too kind for these enemies inside the gate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_industry
BB
I think the real answer is that nobody really knows including the voters.
I was told by someone who has their finger very, very firmly on the political pulse, that voter support for both parties is very soft. In other words while there might be a small leaning in one direction or another it is not strog and can be easily turned.
Hi Lizzie,
Thousands of jobs to be created? Doing what?
There is quite a large demand for telecomms, navigation, and utility and land-use monitoring satellites in low-earth orbits. They have specialist use in wide-area remote monitoring and control applications.
E.g. There’s talk of using orbital internet-of-things gateways to monitor livestock in remote areas of Aus, and then muster them using drones – check out http://myriota.com/
The services these satellites can enable are highly valued to those who need them. Having the industry supply-chain largely vertically-integrated in a single country probably makes sense from an operational point of view. Plus we might have a natural advantage in launch sites with our southern-hemisphere location and weather patterns.
lizzie
Oh, and one other thing.
Cash reckons that the $41 million will ‘kick start’ our space industry.
Handy semantic hint for Cash: ‘kick start’ is for old-fashioned petrol-driven internal combustion cars, not space rockets.
These polls once demonstrate that our political class and commentariat don’t understand statistics, and have no idea of how to read polls. I know I make this comment regularly, but individual polls don’t mean anything much in themselves, though the trendline between them might tell you something. The other thing that people get all het up about is the 2PP. In opinion polls, this is really just a best guess, which might be close to what would happen in an actual election, but is in essence nothing more than the pollster’s extrapolation from the primary vote figures. And the primary vote hasn’t moved a great deal (and not in any trend sense) for about 18 months. Both the major parties sit on the mid-high 30s, and the Greens are probably just shy of 10%. In fact the only significant trend in primary votes that I can see is the slow decline of One Nation, down from the low teens to around 5-6%.
I’m not at all convinced that the government has got much bang out of this Budget, though it does seem to have received an overall position reception – so they haven’t hurt themselves with it. However, the caravan moves on quickly these days, so I’m not sure it will have much lasting impact one way or another.
The wild card here is the “Super Saturday” by-elections, which if we can believe Phil Coorey, will be held on 7th July. If these election return the incumbents like every other s44-caused by-election, then I think any talk of an early election will be off the table for a while, but if the Coalition can snag either Braddon or Longman (and the later seems like a real chance, considering the vagaries of ONP preferences), then the drum beat for a Spring election might grow louder. But for now, my money is still on Star Wars Day (May 4th) election next year.
When the story is nothing about welfare or crime in Australia but you wouldn’t know it from the headline.
Did the Potato write it?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-14/court-document-shed-new-light-on-alleged-money-laundering-case/9738920
How Scott Morrison made it to Parliament!
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/call-to-sack-or-back-towke/news-story/d80d25d02ce81413f77d9ab9038207a8?sv=78aa8ecc4dfed776912fccd9076759fa
lizzie
And one last thing.
We could have done the mother of all deals with Musk:
Solar batteries across the landscape in return for Musk basing his rocketry in Australia and in return for Musk basing one of his electric car factories in Adelaide.
The cost to budget for this would have been in the order of, say, $100 million a year. Chicken feed when you think of Di Natale throwing away his billions and Turnbull giving the Big End of Town $80 billion. Chicken feed.
Win win win.
Instead the Coalition has gone out of its way to destroy Musk’s credibility because it is waging the last battle in the Coal War and it regards Musk as an enemy in that little enterprise.
History will not be kind to this shower of coal kleptocrats.
GG
Cassidy was a bit slow on that one on Sunday!
One Nation vote in Newspoll down to 6 per cent. Yet Newspoll is using one state result (where On Nation polled 13.9 per cent!) to predict the preference flow in the next federal election. Good luck with that. Watch Newspoll rejoin the herd just before polling day.
daretotread. @ #218 Monday, May 14th, 2018 – 10:00 am
Sounds like business as usual to me. ~40% for one party, ~40% for another, and ~20% who switch back and forth between the two seems to be the default configuration in democratic two-party political systems.
Daretotread – If voting is soft for both parties, how does that explain the almost unbelievable stability of the polls.
antonbruckner11 @ #234 Monday, May 14th, 2018 – 7:17 am
If Divided Nations vote continues to fall, it then starts to become irrelevant how you distribute their preferences!!
Greensborough Growler @ #231 Monday, May 14th, 2018 – 10:08 am
Another take of the Towke Morrison affair, which I meant to post yesterday but was overtaken by ennui.
And yes Bw, Cassidy would have been well aware but chose to pass, and not bite the hand that chokes you.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nasty-saga-you-nearly-missed-20091025-hem5.html
Hugo – If the election is on 4 May 2019, what happens to the budget? Surely, this mob will NOT want another budget (which could be a disaster). Anyone got any theories on that?
Hugoaugogo @ #165 Monday, May 14th, 2018 – 10:03 am
Hugo
I am not at all confident about Longman. Susan lamb is a great candidate, but with the volatile Longman voters, who knows. A quick look at the voting history shows a HUGE 12% swing towards Rudd in 2007, with a 10% back sing in 2010. Rudd II lost them completely with a vote collapse to just 31% but they did NOT swing Liberal but went first to PUP. In 2016 it was LNP that took the hit with a 6% negative swing which probably went to PHON. Labor gained 4% but probably this was from some of the returning PUP voters (but not all).
I think that Longman has 26% detached voters and they could go anywhere at all. Now i think that of all the potential Leaders Shorten is best placed to win over the Longman voters so there is cause for optimism, but I am still not counting it as a certainty.
antonbruckner11 @ #239 Monday, May 14th, 2018 – 8:21 am
They do a mini budget. The economic circumstances at the time will dictate if it’s a disaster or not.
Musk’s giant battery getting positive reviews all over the world!
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/tesla-giant-battery-south-australia-reduce-cost-power-outage-backup-system-fcas-a8348431.html
“Ms Prentice, the Assistant Minister for Social Services and Disability, lost her preselection on Saturday by 256 votes to 103 to Brisbane City councillor and her former staffer Julian Simmonds. ”
Turnbull should be directing Prentice to resign from parliament immediately so that a by election for her seat for Simmonds to replace her can be held at the same time as the other by elections.
Her electorate members have no confidence in her ability to represent them and want her replaced.
Turnbull, Morrison, Hunt et al similarly have no confidence in her by refusing to intervene as they have with Goodenough and previously with Morrison.
Prentice should not be an assistant minister, how can Turnbull justify her continuing as a assistant minister when he has no confidence in her continuing as a member of parliament. Turnbull’s inaction on not demanding Prentice’s resignation risks turning parliament into a charity sinecure.
This situation would not be allowed to happen in private enterprise where you have a senior person who has lost the confidence of top management and the company being allowed to continue in a senior let alone any role with the company.
Yes, I agree with grimace – they’d do a mini-budget just to tide everything over until a proper job can be done post-election. It wouldn’t be the usual elaborate Budget song-and-dance routine.
Boerwar
“Cassidy was a bit slow on that one on Sunday!”
And Boerwar, you were a bit slow on my couple of posts last night!!!!
Do you really think I was seriously promoting 50 METRE high 50mm thick steel plate walls around every 3 acre block in Australia. Do you really think I was promoting the idea that every block over 5 acres should be entitled to an FA-18 cannon…. a 6 barrel Gatling 20mm, for vermin control.
Not so. I was being facetious, in response to the silly suggestion that the size of the block of land should determine the calibre of the weapon the owner should be allowed to own.
Sadly (not really) the person it was aimed at has me blocked so the message didn’t get through anyway.
zoomster @ #131 Monday, May 14th, 2018 – 9:10 am
My son is off to study in Kuching, Sarawak (at the Swinburne campus) for six weeks in June/July. Anyone got any tips?
Take advantage of it; don’t stay on campus. Travel on public transport; it is a bloody good deal, you are allowed to sit and observe people. Eat cooked food; boil the water; wash your hands. Leave your pre conceptions behind.
Saw Morrison attempting to spruik the budget this morning … I thought he might have developed some coherency by now – he’s had several years – but he is still as incoherent as he was when he first took to the stage with his dopey charts like he was attempting to teach pre-school. FMD – I cannot believe these people are supposed to be leading us.
He must have said Labor and Shorten 50 times. Which is, in itself, a marker of the relative fear they are feeling.
Hugoaugogo says:
Monday, May 14, 2018 at 10:03 am
….In fact the only significant trend in primary votes that I can see is the slow decline of One Nation, down from the low teens to around 5-6%.
Yup. The dissipation of the “other” vote, including support for ON, over the last few months is discernible. This has coincided with a slight lift in PV support for the LNP, most likely showing a re-affiliation of the disillusioned with the Liberals, and a similar slender lift in PV support for Labor.
This dissipation is likely just a temporary downswing in the Anti-Major vote and will be reversed at some point, even in the beneficiaries of that support change. Mini-brands come and go but there is a significant pool of voters who will coalesce around the many micros from time to time.
However, I also reckon that when voters decide they want “change” – when they choose to overthrow the established government – the Mini-brands fade. They are relevant for the purposes of protest. They are far less relevant to dislodging the Government. As long as the mood of the electorate favours change, Labor, who offer the only available opti-change-values, will be odds-on to win. I think the dissipation of the “other” vote reflects this fundamental democratic imperative.
a r @ #171 Monday, May 14th, 2018 – 10:18 am
AR
That idea s one that I think is missing the longer term trend
Now when I was young you had about 90 % fixed to one or other party and 10% or less who swung or voted for minors. Gradually this has decreased so that we see votes for the majors falling and a much more volatile electorate. we know that votes for minors is increasing and it would be rare these days for the total of the two majors to be greater than 80%. Then you add perhaps another 10% who swing only between the majors and I think the “attached voter class” is closer to 30%.
Since I was only just now looking at Longman in 2004 88% voted for the majors (56% LNP, 36% ALP). In 2016 only 74% voted for the majors.
That 14% are volatile.
“In a torrent of negative press surrounding George Pell, Frank O’Shea goes against common opinion and contributes some words of support.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/is-george-pell-really-such-a-bad-guy,11491”
Looks like this article may have been pulled as 404 comes up.
Could be due to the ongoing trial and/or content or opinions expressed.
Hard to say if author is serious or trying on a les patterson impression of gerard henderson.