The Courier-Mail has a Queensland-only YouGov Galaxy poll of federal voting intention (presumably state results from the same poll will follow tomorrow or the next day), and it records the Coalition with a 52-48 lead, which compares with a 54.1-45.9 result at the 2016 election. This is unchanged from the last such poll in early February, although that result was stronger for the Coalition than other polling from Queensland. The primary votes in the latest poll are Coalition 40% (41% in the February poll, 43.2% at the election), Labor 33% (32% and 30.9%), Greens 10% (10% and 8.8%) and One Nation 10% (9% and 5.5% from ten seats contested). Other findings from the poll:
Other questions related to the budget: 39% said the budget will make them better off, compared with 32% for worse off; 26% think Labor would have delivered a better budget, with 51% for the negative; 39% said it would be good for Queensland, and 28% bad; 21% said it would make them more likely to vote Coalition, 17% less likely and 57% no influence; 46% said Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition had “the best long-term plan for Australia’s future” compared with 31% for Bill Shorten and Labor; and Scott Morrison led Chris Bowen as preferred treasurer 38% to 23%. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 900.
It’s a bit out of date now, but let the record note that the latest BludgerTrack update had Labor up two seats in Victoria and down one in Western Australia following some quirky state breakdown results, but recorded next to no change on national voting intention. This was all based on this week’s Essential Research poll, which also included a new set of leadership numbers. There will presumably be a lot more post-budget polling to come over the next few days.
Also noted:
• The state council of the Liberal Party has announced it will not be fielding candidates in the by-elections for Fremantle (not surprising) and Perth (very surprising). The party’s Twitter account says is “will not be distracted by Bill Shorten’s duplicity and dishonesty”, and will instead devote its energies to the state by-election in Darling Range. Jessica Strutt of the ABC reports the candidate is likely to be Rob Coales, Serpentine-Jarrahdale councillor and candidate for Thornlie at the state election. If so they will be overlooking Alyssa Hayden, who unexpectedly lost her upper house seat to One Nation last year, and again be exhibiting their lack of concern for anything resembling gender parity.
• A poll of 1277 respondents in Longman, conducted on Thursday night by ReachTEL for The Australia Institute, gives a remarkably strong result for the Coalition, who lead 53-47 on respondent-allocated two-party preferred from primary votes of Coalition 36.7% (39.0% at the election) and Labor 32.5% (35.4%).
• Jane Prentice has lost Liberal National Party preselection for her Brisbane seat of Ryan to Brisbane councillor Julian Simmonds, and the Liberal state council meeting in Western Australia appears set to take over the preselection process in Moore to protect Ian Goodenough from four challengers (Andres Timmermanis, John Raftis, Paul Miles and Robert Marie).
Militant Meeks perhaps.
I’m bored and have been thinking though plausible reasons the WA Liberals are not running in Perth. I can’t come up with anything that doesn’t border on or delve into whack-a-loon conspiracy theory.
What are the chances that the WA Liberals have gone off the reservation or their financials are much worse than has been made out and they simply can’t afford to fight a by-election? I can’t imagine this decision was made without the ascent of Federal Liberal HQ.
Whatever the truth it’s so bad that the consequences of not fighting a winnable by-election when the Federal Liberal Party is sitting on a one-seat majority are not as bad as the consequences of running would be.
This is going to end very badly for Brian Trumble.
Boerwar @ #98 Saturday, May 12th, 2018 – 10:30 pm
And Mr Avenatti in California. So how did they find out about each other and get together?
I think Galaxy has a better track record than YouGov. I would still say that if the figures were reversed.
grimace,
The only answer I can come up with is the federal Liberals want to concentrate on the winnable seats, like Longman and Braddon.
grimace regarding Perth, perhaps they approached One or two people to run but were knocked back, so given finances polls etc. etc. decided not to put forward anyone.
C@t
I don’t know, but I am not thinking some enchanted evening.
I did miss an obvious option, and it’s the simplest, they haven’t put up a candidate because there won’t be a by-election – we’re having an August general election.
Has there been pre-selection news from any of the other seats, beyond media speculation?
Are there any numbers on party defections after incumbent preselection defeats?
@grimace
I believe that the Liberals in Western Australia must be polling that badly, that they have decided it wasn’t worth the bother to contest in Perth.
Also I am not ruling out a August election, especially if the Liberals win Longman and Braddon in these by-elections that would put pressure on Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership. Since Longman and Braddon would be among the seats the Coalition needs to win in order to retain office. Especially if they lose a few in Western Australia.
Anyway I can’t see an election being held later than early December. Because Turnbull needs to head off his opponents in the party room.
Just saw the etu advertisement, the Liberals are in trouble.
Stormy Daniels is a porn star and producer. Avenatti is a California lawyer. It isn’t that difficult to see how the two found each other, surely.
grimace
Here’s something:
https://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/5396295/whiteley-to-contest-as-braddon-candidate-for-liberals/?src=rss
@Millennial
The reasons why the state Liberals won a resounding victory at the recent state election, was of the state Labor party’s pokies policies and a fear of a hung parliament. Those aren’t going to apply in a federal by-election for Braddon. Therefore; I predict Labor will win comfortably in a Braddon by-election. However Braddon (along with Longman) is one of the electorates the Coalition needs to win from Labor at the election to retain government.
C@t
I don’t know, but I am not thinking some enchanted evening.
Quote
Well mate you wouldn’t have time.
Posting on the internet and all.
Imagine if it meant something.
When you post stuff about what you have done I’m loving it.
The obsessional Greens shit is boring to the max.
boomy1 @ #115 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 12:17 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQ8VjOP9Oig
test @ 6.49am
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. It’s slim pickings Sunday!
Ross Gittins is all over the questionable assumptions underlying Morrison’s budget.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/morrison-s-budget-assumed-a-kinder-gentler-world-20180511-p4zepm.html
Caitlin Fitzsimmons has a look at the two tax policies.
https://www.smh.com.au/money/tax/compare-labor-and-liberal-personal-tax-plans-20180511-p4zetk.html
The 2018 Federal Budget has locked in a mean-spirited fiscal policy for Australia. It reveals the dark soul of conservatism in Australia that we cannot afford, political argues Martin Hirst.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/australia-cannot-afford-another-turnbull-morrison-budget,11490
The NSW government promises its redevelopment of a public housing estate in Sydney’s north will provide up to 1000 dwellings for social housing as well as community facilities and services. But only 128 homes have been earmarked as affordable housing – less than 5 per cent of up to 3500 residential properties planned for Ivanhoe Estate in Macquarie Park.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/ivanhoe-redevelopment-criticised-for-lack-of-affordable-housing-20180511-p4zeqr.html
The government-backed scheme that beats a reverse mortgage.
https://www.smh.com.au/money/borrowing/the-government-backed-scheme-that-beats-a-reverse-mortgage-20180511-p4zep7.html
Peter FitzSimons begins his usual Sunday contribution with “So where are you now, you fierce opponents of euthanasia and the right-to-die? How many of you, honestly, can look at the triumphant – you heard me – passing of the 104-year-old Australian scientist David Goodall in Switzerland on Thursday and say that he got it wrong, that society is on a slippery slope, et cetera?”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/david-goodall-leads-the-way-with-choice-we-should-all-get-to-have-20180511-p4zeu4.html
The Human Rights Commission has lobbied against expanding the home affairs minister and department’s powers to make visa cancellation decisions without a merits review and even called for them to be wound back.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/12/human-rights-commission-pushes-back-against-peter-dutton-bid-for-more-powers
The NSW school curriculum is set for a massive overhaul.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-school-curriculum-set-for-massive-overhaul-20180512-p4zey2.html
The Parrot is in court again! He has been sued by a NSW government scientist of almost four decades’ service after the broadcaster accused him of doctoring a noise report on a wind farm planned for Mudgee.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/alan-jones-sued-for-accusing-scientist-of-dishonestly-editing-report-20180511-p4zesd.html
Around two hundred South Australian nurses, aged care workers and the community have taken part in a rally to call on the Federal Government to legislate for improved staffing ratios in residential aged care.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/nurses-demand-new-legislation-around-agedcare-staff-ratio/news-story/1af9858522b115d277e618b82fa7e4ef
Why George Pell dined with under-fire EPA’s Scott Pruitt in secret.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/why-george-pell-dined-with-under-fire-epa-s-scott-pruitt-in-secret-20180512-p4zev4.html
Cartoon Corner
Alan Moir wishes Morrison well.
Peter Broelman with a chilling contribution.
Paul Zanetti with an improving Bob Hawke.
Two good ones from Jon Kudelka.
There are a few in here.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-may-13-2018-20180512-h0zzjx.html
After Saying He’s Too Busy To Meet With Mueller, Trump Goes Golfing
After his lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, said that Trump was too busy to meet with Special Counsel Robert Mueller, the president spent Saturday golfing.
Trump is too busy to meet with Robert Mueller, but not so busy that he can’t find time to golf.
Donald Trump isn’t too busy. This is a man who has spent the bulk of his presidency tweeting, golfing, going to his Florida club, and watching Fox News.
Trump has been in office for less than two years, but has spent 5 months of his presidency at one of his properties:
https://www.politicususa.com/2018/05/12/mueller-trump-golfing.html
Michael Avenatti Delivers Stern Warning To Trump And Cohen: Come Clean To America Or Be Outed
Even as Michael Avenatti has come a long way in exposing the corruption of Donald Trump and Michael Cohen, the lawyer for Stormy Daniels indicated on Saturday that he’s just getting started.
In a discussion with MSNBC’s AM Joy, Avenatti said that either Cohen and the companies who funneled money into his shell company should come clean to the American people, or they’ll be outed – by him, of course.
Avenatti looked straight into the camera and said:
If folks want to continue to hide this stuff and cover it up, I think it’s fantastic. Because I’m going to out them, okay? We’re going to out them. We’re going to bring all of this stuff to light. So if you’re out there and you have stuff relating to your relationships with Michael Cohen that you’re concerned are going to come out, you should be concerned because they are going to come out. So you better come clean with the American people. You better try to get out in front of this, period. And that’s a stern warning this Saturday morning.
https://www.politicususa.com/2018/05/12/avenatti-stern-warning-cohen.html
I agree with this
Author reveals how Donald Trump chased after ‘Russian criminal money’ to build Trump Tower
Award-winning Associated Press reporter Seth Hettena, author of the new book Trump/Russia: A Definitive History, explained President Donald Trump’s decades-long ties to the Russian Mob during a Saturday appearance on MSNBC
“A new book on the Russia investigation explores whether President Trump is either hiding something when it comes to the Kremlin or was duped by Soviet state craft,” anchor Alex Witt noted.
“You have relationships with Russia — between Trump and people around him — that go back decades,” Hettena noted. “When we look at that, what we see is this isn’t a new development here, that these are relationships that go back to the 1980s even.”
Witt wondered if the entire scandal came down to money.
“It’s about money, but it’s about Russian criminal money, specifically,” Hettena clarified. “What happened, is in the 80s there was a group of Russian criminals here in New York that were running a really lucrative gas tax scam, they had so much money they didn’t know what to do with it.”
“The interesting thing is Donald Trump found them, and got them to invest in Trump Tower and they wound up buying a block of units for a little less than $6 million,” he continued.
“That was Trump’s introduction into this world of Russian criminal money,” Hettena argued. “It continued in Trump Tower, it continued in his casinos, it continued into development projects, right up until the present day.”
The author also suggested longtime Trump fixer Michael Cohen had ties to the Russian mob.
“
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/05/author-reveals-donald-trump-chased-russian-criminal-money-build-trump-tower/
One scientist who asked not to be named, said: “Obviously this is political – it’s to head off Labor making a big issue of the Great Barrier Reef at the next election.”
https://www.theage.com.au/environment/conservation/like-winning-lotto-reef-foundation-minnow-braces-for-444m-windfall-20180511-p4zeud.html
That latest Zanetti is particularly woeful, and borderline offensive. Or is it just me?
adrian
No, not just you. Zanetti is not at all amusing.
HBO’s Bill Maher scorches Heartland voters for ‘getting in bed’ with a mobbed-up Trump
On Friday night, HBO host Bill Maher had a few things to say to voters in the heartland who fell in love with Donald Trump whose presidency is more “Goodfellas’ and less “Camelot.”
Pointing out the motley cast President Donald Trump brought to Washington, D.C., with him, the Real Time host described them as New York City’s “most toxic trash” — listing off Trump acolytes Michael Cohen, Rudy Giuliani, Donald Trump Jr, and Anthony Scaramucci.
What happened to your values? What happened to good manners and monogamy? You’re the ‘my word is my bond’ people. These guys lie just to stay in practice,” Maher lectured Trump’s salt of the earth voters. “You’re all about an honest day’s work. Trump watches TV until noon. You’re frugal. They spend like identity thieves who’ve got a hold of your PIN number. You’re the stoics. Trump’s a whiny little b*tch.”
“People call this presidency a ‘reality show,’ It’s more like a Scorsese movie,” Maher raged. “Everything Trump does is modeled on the mob. Who does Trump surround himself with? Disposable lawyers and idiot members of his own family. Who’s his worst enemy? The FBI.”
“And I must say, as someone who has never liked Donald Trump, even before he got into politics, his being president has been quite a revelation,” Maher remarked. “I always thought of him as an egomaniac and a blowhard. But I didn’t realize until this very year that he was a cheap hood all along, a common thug.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/05/hbos-bill-maher-scorches-heartland-voters-getting-bed-mobbed-trump/
Martin Hirst: “the overwhelming theme of the 2018 Budget is misery for the less-well-off and handouts to the Government’s supporters. It is a document based on ideology, not economics, and this is reflected in the numbers that don’t add up and don’t make sense.
The 2018 Budget also reflects a very nasty streak of conservatism – the neoliberal mindset – embodied in Turnbull’s heartless and thoughtless commentary that the Newstart allowance is deliberately kept at a poverty level so that it “encourages” the unemployed to hunt for non-existent or poorly-paid work.”
This article is well worth reading for the list of Budget measures – not for comfort, but to confirm that this is a government which MUST be thrown out before they ruin Australia altogether.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/australia-cannot-afford-another-turnbull-morrison-budget,11490#.WvZwJaR1jx9.twitter
‘lizzie says:
Sunday, May 13, 2018 at 7:09 am
I agree with this
Calling this a “mass-shooting” pushes an NRA agenda, in saying “see mass shootings still happen in Australia despite gun control”.
This was a domestic violence situation, not a “mass shooting”.
Don’t conflate the issues.’
There is almost no real gun control. There are more weapons in Australia than when Port Arthur happened: something like 2 million wapons. People who utter threats to their partners or to others do not have their gun licences withdrawn. Ditto people who access violent sites on the antisocial media.
The Adler shotgun can be modified to shoot 11 solid rounds in seconds. There is a large market in illegal guns. Border control of guns is a farce.
As for conflation, relatively, the most likely people to be shot in Australia (apart from the criminal classes) are women who are shot by their farmer partners.
If it is one thing rural cops hate most it is a domestic on a farm. Because there are always guns.
lizzie @ #122 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 7:09 am
Exactly, because it supports the NRA line that, see, ‘Mass Shootings’ still happen in Australia even though they have strong gun laws! Whereas, what is the case is that a pervasive gun mindset, if it seeps into the national consciousness, from places such as America, informs peoples’ choices when they want to harm people. Also, it is the case that, with the easier availability of the Adler, not our tough gun laws, that makes these incidents more likely to occur. So it’s not our tough gun laws, it’s the weakening of them that is the problem. And the pervasive influence of the NRA and their relentless pursuit of every opportunity to inveigle themselves and their agenda into every society.
lizzie @ #15606 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 7:46 am
Zanetti is a very mediocre scribbler occupying the bottom-dwelling niche vacated by the Brain-injured Leak and the foul fraud Larry Pickering. Murdorcs with pens.
A good discussion between Katharine Murphy and Chris Bowen.
Worth a listen if you have the time! 🙂
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/audio/2018/may/12/what-is-labors-economic-strategy-in-response-to-this-weeks-budget-australian-politics-live-podcast
This will test Frydenberg’s sincerity.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/swaths-of-native-forest-near-great-barrier-reef-set-to-be-bulldozed-20180512-p4zewb.html
Bill Maher: Donald Trump In White House Means U.S. Got “Married To The Mob”
http://deadline.com/2018/05/bill-maher-donald-trump-mob-don-mafia-the-godfather-scorsese-real-time-video-1202388950/
Boerwar
Potatohead should be spending more of his energy on such things as gun control, rather than torturing refugees.
Read Peter Dutton’s claim to have raised $650 000 here: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/if-getup-want-a-fight-theyll-get-one-peter-dutton-under-siege-in-his-own-seat-20170529-gwfde3.html
lizzie,
The Government are interested in protecting the Environment.
The problem is that the Environment they wish to protect is the one we have created and not the one that has naturally existed! 🙁
The State Poll thread says it was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday
The Budget was delivered on Tuesday night
The Reply was Thursday night
So a poll on the Budget with its tax cuts for all and sundry?
The differential in Budget emphasis including other measures introduced by Labor appears not to be the subject of this polling given its timing
I understand there is a price for these. Catch 22.
Motormouth Morrison is on Insiders.
I’m taking the dogs out, in the rain.
Thanks BK, all good links, and especially for this one:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-school-curriculum-set-for-massive-overhaul-20180512-p4zey2.html
From the article this looks like a review with an ideological bias.
I’d like to see the terms of reference supplied to Geoff Masters by Minister Stokes.
The article reads like a paraphrased press release, with little detail.
And why call the current model of ‘1 teacher, 30 kids in a classroom’ a “privatised” model?
Excuse me, but I am suspicious of his motives.
Observer @ #139 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 5:22 am
This poll would be very unlikely to show any effects from the Budget.
The general consensus of the likes of William and Kevin Bonham is that it takes a week or so for an event to start showing up in polling.
Thanks BK.
Lizzie
The notion that an extra layer of bureaucracy infested with oil industry mates will either target the expenditure of half a billion properly or do so efficiently is just another example of FrythePlanet’s utter cynicism when it comes to global warming.
Boerwar @ #144 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 8:32 am
Hard to imagine them becoming more sleazzy, but they manage it with elan, even panache, again and again.
Boerwar
I didn’t agree with the combination of Energy and Environment and was disappointed when Labor endorsed it.
lizzie @ #140 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 8:23 am
Vunderful, he said, speaking in Cherman, vere can I get one of zeze poleeze checks und vot denominations do zay cum in pliz. I vould like ze 100 dollars vuns pliz.
Alzo, vot is an Asser Voolf ❓ Iz dot like de asser of a horze ❓
Sank you lots. 😊
Zorry, I chust got out of bed und still helf asleep.
Grog heaping praise on Morrison’s unique ability!! 🙂
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/may/13/an-unfunded-uncosted-tax-plan-plays-into-labors-hands-again
Apparently this is a billboard.
A sane panel.