The Courier-Mail has a Queensland-only YouGov Galaxy poll of federal voting intention (presumably state results from the same poll will follow tomorrow or the next day), and it records the Coalition with a 52-48 lead, which compares with a 54.1-45.9 result at the 2016 election. This is unchanged from the last such poll in early February, although that result was stronger for the Coalition than other polling from Queensland. The primary votes in the latest poll are Coalition 40% (41% in the February poll, 43.2% at the election), Labor 33% (32% and 30.9%), Greens 10% (10% and 8.8%) and One Nation 10% (9% and 5.5% from ten seats contested). Other findings from the poll:
Other questions related to the budget: 39% said the budget will make them better off, compared with 32% for worse off; 26% think Labor would have delivered a better budget, with 51% for the negative; 39% said it would be good for Queensland, and 28% bad; 21% said it would make them more likely to vote Coalition, 17% less likely and 57% no influence; 46% said Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition had “the best long-term plan for Australia’s future” compared with 31% for Bill Shorten and Labor; and Scott Morrison led Chris Bowen as preferred treasurer 38% to 23%. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 900.
It’s a bit out of date now, but let the record note that the latest BludgerTrack update had Labor up two seats in Victoria and down one in Western Australia following some quirky state breakdown results, but recorded next to no change on national voting intention. This was all based on this week’s Essential Research poll, which also included a new set of leadership numbers. There will presumably be a lot more post-budget polling to come over the next few days.
Also noted:
• The state council of the Liberal Party has announced it will not be fielding candidates in the by-elections for Fremantle (not surprising) and Perth (very surprising). The party’s Twitter account says is “will not be distracted by Bill Shorten’s duplicity and dishonesty”, and will instead devote its energies to the state by-election in Darling Range. Jessica Strutt of the ABC reports the candidate is likely to be Rob Coales, Serpentine-Jarrahdale councillor and candidate for Thornlie at the state election. If so they will be overlooking Alyssa Hayden, who unexpectedly lost her upper house seat to One Nation last year, and again be exhibiting their lack of concern for anything resembling gender parity.
• A poll of 1277 respondents in Longman, conducted on Thursday night by ReachTEL for The Australia Institute, gives a remarkably strong result for the Coalition, who lead 53-47 on respondent-allocated two-party preferred from primary votes of Coalition 36.7% (39.0% at the election) and Labor 32.5% (35.4%).
• Jane Prentice has lost Liberal National Party preselection for her Brisbane seat of Ryan to Brisbane councillor Julian Simmonds, and the Liberal state council meeting in Western Australia appears set to take over the preselection process in Moore to protect Ian Goodenough from four challengers (Andres Timmermanis, John Raftis, Paul Miles and Robert Marie).
bemused says:
Sunday, May 13, 2018 at 7:21 pm
Oh dear…. Don, you will really cop it now.
Not a problem, I have been insulted by experts, and there are not a lot here practised in the art.
Water off a duck’s back. Bring it on, baby.
Don:
It’s not a ‘misandric rant’. Men are overwhelmingly the perpetrators of domestic violence.
Giving Trump a Peace Nobel would have all the integrity of giving Dylan a Literature Nobel.
kayjay:
I recall that Rowe being posted here previously.
Confessions:
It’s not a ‘misandric rant’. Men are overwhelmingly the perpetrators of domestic violence.
It is indeed a misandric rant.
Get your facts straight. It is two to one, men to women. So one third of the victims of domestic violence are men, not women.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-06/fact-file-domestic-violence-statistics/7147938
These include the finding that a third of people who experienced domestic violence from a current partner in the last 12 months were men (33,100) and two thirds were women (66,200), though the ABS notes that the number for men has a large statistical error and should be used with caution.
For the victims of violence perpetrated by a current partner since the age of 15, one in three (119,600) were men and two in three, (237,100) were women.
don @ #452 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 7:25 pm
The Misogynist Gab fest holds their Branch Meeting.
Confessions @ #455 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 7:32 pm
Thank You.
I will get up to speed with methods and then leave it to Lizzie and others who are more au fait with Twitter (no more Cherman Langwidge for me).
Chris Kenny has confirmed there will be a Newspoll tonight.
Have we been WOWed yet?
No Don, you get your facts straight. From the AIHW.
https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/domestic-violence/family-domestic-sexual-violence-in-australia-2018/contents/summary
And your response to my original comment as being a ‘misandric rant’ means I can only conclude you disagree with my statements about how weak it is that men kill their families and innocent children because they are finding life difficult to cope with.
don @ #456 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 7:34 pm
Men would probably also tend to under-report due to masculine pride and lack of sympathy they would encounter.
Kayjay:
We have a lot of commenters who post Rowe’s latest, so I wouldn’t worry about it. I just recall seeing that one before.
Confessions @ #461 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 7:42 pm
Doubling down I see. As if women never do such things!
I deplore all violence, domestic or other and irrespective of the genders of the perpetrator and victim.
“The current tragic situation (WA) is best left to the coroner, health professionals and police.”
Yes.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #449 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 7:21 pm
Andrew
If you want to make an apology, try meaning it. I think you may in fact be a reasonable guy with a brain, so perhaps if you did a rethink and started from the idea that while DTT’s ideas may be controversial and “out there” there is always a basis for them. Try to understand first THEN make a judgement. I will always be happy to consider reasoned discussion and disagreement.
Group think reaction leaves me cold and contemptuous.
You are a lawyer FFS. Not too many excuses, although my two kids who are lawyers are equally intransigent and arrogant. But like kids everywhere they think they know it all.
Newspoll
My prediction: 52/48.
don @ #446 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 7:20 pm
I really hate disagreeing, but that’s almost up there with “not all men” to say that women kill too. If women kill more infants than men kill infants, and men kill more children than women kill children, how is that relevant to “real men don’t kill their families”? Isn’t it a bit obscene to compare the proportion of infants killed by women to the proportion of children killed by men in order to make a gender argument? Are we judging who killed the least? Who matters? The infants? The children? The men? The women?
About the only excuse I can think of is that this highly emotional, and we had all rather wait before spouting.
Steve777 @ #465 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 7:46 pm
Not if it can be used to justify misandric rants.
DTT – your “kids” must be in their 30s.
Confessions:
And your response to my original comment as being a ‘misandric rant’ means I can only conclude you disagree with my statements about how weak it is that men kill their families and innocent children because they are finding life difficult to cope with.
Don’t try to verbal me. Don’t move the goal posts. Doesn’t work.
What about the women who, in the majority, are the ones who kill their babies, are they let off scot free because they are women?
Are they weak also? Or is there a special let out clause in your lexicon? Hormones maybe?
Boerwar
“Your suggestions lack merit. The idea that you can reliably keep a .303 bullet inside 3 acres is risible.”
Of course you can keep a .303 bullet within 3 acres. You clearly don’t know what 3 acres looks like.
All that would be needed is a simple wall around the perimeter, perhaps 50metres high, and constructed out of say 45mm steel plate. A simple and cheap solution to the problem you raise. And far cheaper than Trump’s Mexican wall.
Even a .303 could not get through a 45mm steel plate wall.
So now I expect that you will apologise to me for your unfair criticism. Risible indeed!
“Not if it can be used to justify misandric rants.”
The events were terrible, reactions strong. I drafted a post about it but deleted it. Simply awful, horrifying, wish I didn’t hear about it. That’s all I’ll say about the events or about anyone else’s reactions to them.
A Link to the last 18 Rowe cartoons some were not post especially about the buget
http://www.afr.com/photogallery/opinion/david-rowes-cartoons-20180430-h0zgej?&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nc&eid=socialn:twi-14omn0055-optim-nnn:nonpaid-27/06/2014-social_traffic-all-organicpost-nnn-afr-o&campaign_code=nocode&promote_channel=social_twitter#
Regarding men as victims of DV.
In one of my professional lifes in the late ’70s I encountered my very first DV case. The wife was a very rotund person of about 175Kg. The husband was a whippet of about 60Kg. She would regularly give him a thumping and then lock him in a wardrobe.
They had only one child, a lovely 17 year old daughter who had brought the matter to my attention.
Steve777 @ #473 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 7:56 pm
These tragedies are beyond normal human experience or comprehension.
It is pathetic when some seize on them to pursue an agenda.
bemused @ #476 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 8:00 pm
Yes, you ought to know.
Sometimes it’s best to shut the fuck up.
I suppose there must be some men like her, but I have yet to meet a man who has had his eye sockets smashed by his wife bashing him with her fists.
She is the woman with whom we had a cuppa this afternoon. We are a small part of her support network. Do our tiny bit. It is not just the smashed face bones and the eyesight. It is the sheer terror at the time and the residual, life sapping anxiety.
She will never see properly again. She can’t read because of what the bashing did to her. Can’t really stand properly either, because of what the bashings did to her. So her job prospects are practically non-existent.
Her name has had to be changed because he is still out there. She had to change HER identity.
I support neither misandry nor misogyny.
IMO, anyone who thinks that there is even a remote equivalence between female domestic violence against men, and the opposite, is seriously fooling themselves. I refer specifically to the proportion of victims and to the depth of physical and psychological damage done.
In terms of discussion in this context, sentences that begin with, or imply, ‘all’ in relation to either women and men are probably statistically incorrect. ‘Some’ and ‘most’ are much more useful than ‘all’.
adrian @ #477 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 8:04 pm
Do it!
‘psyclaw says:
Sunday, May 13, 2018 at 7:54 pm
Boerwar
“Your suggestions lack merit. The idea that you can reliably keep a .303 bullet inside 3 acres is risible.”
Of course you can keep a .303 bullet within 3 acres. You clearly don’t know what 3 acres looks like.’
Did not you suggest 3 acres as the basis for being entitled to a .303 gun licence? If not, I apologize. If so, you may wish to.
As for whether I know how big a three acre paddock is, I could step it out for you. I grew up on a farm when acres were still the go.
Boerwar @ #478 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 8:04 pm
I have only known one woman who was a victim of DV.
Another bloke and I were prepared to sort out her husband but she did not want anything done.
Go figure!
Would have to say that I agree with this author:
The damage will not be contained. Losing our credibility is just the start.
https://www.newstatesman.com/world/north-america/2018/05/pulling-out-iran-deal-donald-trump-has-ushered-end-american-era
Don:
I don’t need to verbal you. Your own response to my comment is sufficient enough to give not just me but obviously others, an indication as to your real motivation: downplaying the reality around male violence on women and children. I feel the need to inform you that in doing so you aren’t doing your fellow mankind any kind of service at all making excuses for his violent behaviour.
If you want to help your brothers you should be defending women’s and children’s rights to expect safety and freedom from violence within the places they call home and calling out their bullshit excuses to rob them of this freedom. Not trying weasel words in order to excuse them from their violent and fatal acts by trying the old equivalence route of ‘oh but women are just as bad’ even no objective evidence even shows this.
booleanbach
Yep. Anyone who signs any deal with the US from now on had better do so on the basis that the US may at any time unilaterally withdraw from that deal.
100% untrustworthy.
Australia now has no excuse for not doing a very serious reappraisal of the ANZUS alliance: a frail reed in the face of the rapidly growing military power and reach of China.
booleanbach @ #482 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 8:10 pm
Good article. Thanks.
The future is looking more & more difficult to navigate!
https://www.theage.com.au/technology/alexa-and-siri-can-hear-this-hidden-command-you-can-t-20180511-p4zeot.html
So as a male and a father who obtained the Custody of his children after protracted near 2 year proceedings in the Family Court of Australia and where the legal advice to me was that the Family Court of Australia was a very difficult Court for father’s but not impossible – which I can attest to – the consistency of the presentations that males are the perpetrators of domestic violence on their partners and their children is a presentation which still annoys me to this day
The question I put is penalty when false allegations are made and knowingly false allegations are made
In my case my response affidavit was to deny all the allegations made against me including that 4 people lived in that house so please ask because I have nothing to hide
Eventually, some 12 months into proceedings, the Court ordered that a Family Report be attended
The children spoke to verbal and physical abuse of them including being threatened if they told their father and of the mother hitting the father
My response was that the mother should seek professional advice – which only served to further inflame the situation
The flash point came when I threatened to take the treatment of the children to the authorities and that would be the end of the marriage
Whilst I was at work the mother got in first and I found myself served with an ex party Restraining Order upon returning home from work
So you just endure the circumstances you are confronted with because you do – and hope matters would improve with no great thought
The threat to refer matters to the authorities was made – but would I have taken that step because it was more to act as the catalyst for a change in behaviour by the other party?
So when statistics are referred to as on here on this subject I respond including that statistics are not the be all and end all – because behaviours do not necessarily result in reports to Police
And that is before we get to false allegations
I have no brief with anyone who imposes in a threatening manner – and particularly men because we are prejudged and there is a presumption of guilt when allegations are made against a male
And that is dangerous
Not all males are able to defend themselves as I was able to – in the proceedings that mattered being presenting as the parent resoonsible for the raising of the children of the marriage
Everyone has a story to tell
So blanket statements are not appropriate
And relying on statistics is, from my experience, a nonsense because the statistics are the result of reporting including false reporting to give perceived advantage in Family Court of Australia proceedings
Observer
Without in any way wishing to comment on your personal situation, women are five times more likely to be hospitalized for damage resulting from domestic violence than men.
In other words, the objective physical evidence: hospitalizations by cause, shows that women are far more likely to be the subject of serious domestic violence than are men.
I’d like to know where the violence comes from in a person? Why are people violent? What ignites it? I was the subject of violence for many years when I was a child. I still bear the weight of it. I see it as an illness. It is so destructive. Why? Why does this happen?
briefly @ #489 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 8:31 pm
I only have my own experiences in this. For me the times I was violent it was fear and insecurity, which is sort of the same thing.
I’m sorry but statistics are not false reporting because they don’t align with your own experience.
AGW denialists the world over choose the same means by which to prosecute their own flawed agenda. Who can forget the Australian picking sundry surfers who have surfed at a particular location for years bearing witness to the lack of rising sea levels as if this alone can disprove the universal data that sea levels are rising? It’s the same logic.
But here’s some actual statistical evidence on family violence:
https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/domestic-violence/family-domestic-sexual-violence-in-australia-2018/contents/summary
Confessions @ #492 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 8:36 pm
It is also worth looking at perpetrators. I would think it is the perpetrators who should get the attention.
In a Wednesday morning tantrum, Trump threatened to take away press credentials from the White House press corps. Good. A credentialed press is an obedient & captive press, ever fearful of losing its precious access.
Exactly!
https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/05/11/roaming-charges-the-torture-never-stops/
The other matter is that ex parte proceedings should not be tolerated
Statistics and facts do not necessarily align
My family for the last 20 years has consisted of 6 children, 4 of them boys
So your statistics say that one or more of the 5 of us will inflict violence on a female partner or on their children
WRONG
And absolutely wrong
Bill Johnston topped the batting averages on a tour of England – averaging over 100 an innings
Bradman averaged 90 on the same tour
Statistics, statistics and damn lies
Tom Lehrer – wonderful
It would seem to me it was a tragedy a long time in the making.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw/peter-didn-t-snap-he-thought-this-through-father-of-shooting-victims-speaks-20180513-p4zezt.html
newspoll tonight?
I’m hoping for a swing back the ALP (53:47 or better), but the Murdoch media’s bias in reporting on the budget and reply has been breath-taking. they plugged the libs tax cuts on the front page of their tabloids, but had shorten’s reply on page 8 and then lied about the extent of what labor committed to – whereas other media were reporting the cuts for 10 million lower and middle-income taxpayers, the herald sun reported “4 million” would get tax cuts of $xxx (some specific number, so they didn’t lie – they just didn’t report the others getting tax cuts from it).
hopefully people got the news from other sources – I didn’t see how the MSM electronic media presented the reply.
Bemused
‘Go figure’.
Well that proves you have nothing to add to the discussion on domestic violence. I recognise this response and what it means. You just proved your complete ignorance, and that you should never make a statement on family violence ever again, you jerk. And that poor woman, who was the recipient of your ‘help’, suffered more because not only are/were you an idiot, you are a wilful idiot, too lazy to read and learn.
You are a … never mind. Flogging a stuffed horse.
Misandry… what misandry? I do not hate men, I feel really sorry for the poor sods. If they were not so dangerous when crossed, they would be so cute.
Observer, that was pretty much my experience as well. People would be shocked if they knew how lax the rules of evidence are in the family Court….basically there are none. If people so choose, they can enter any outrageous lie into evidence and guess what? There are no penalties at all when they are caught out. Basically men and women commit domestic violence and only a fool would argue that this crime is solely the domain of males
Oh dear:
Shock and thaw: Alaskan sea ice just took a steep, unprecedented dive
https://www.salon.com/2018/05/12/shock-and-thaw-alaskan-sea-ice-just-took-a-steep-unprecedented-dive_partner/
Boerwar @ #453 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 7:30 pm
Obama got one. And then he went and did a bunch of war things. With drones.