YouGov Galaxy budget polling: Robertson, Chisholm, Herbert

Modestly encouraging results for the governments in post-budget electorate polls, plus latest developments on the by-election front.

Nine News has results of post-budget polling of three federal marginal seats, these being automated phone polls conducted by YouGov Galaxy.

• In the seat of Robertson on the central coast of New South Wales, the Liberals are credited with a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, little changed from Lucy Wicks’ 1.1% winning margin in 2016. Primary votes are Liberal 44% (44.7% at the election), Labor 37% (38.4%), Greens 6% (8.4%) and One Nation 7%. Twenty-four per cent rated the budget would make them better off, 20% worse off and 48% no difference; 42% supported the government’s company tax cuts, and an equal share opposed the. The sample for the Robertson poll was 514.

• In the seat of Chisholm in Melbourne’s south-east, which was the one seat gained by the Coalition from Labor in 2016, the score is 50-50, compared with a 1.2% winning margin for Liberal member Julia Banks in 2016. The primary votes are Liberal 44% (45.3%), Labor 38% (35.9%), Greens 9% (12.3%) and One Nation 3%. Twenty-six per cent said the budget would make them better off, 23% worse off and 43% no difference; 32% supported, and 50% opposed, the company tax cuts. Sample: 539.

• In the Townsville-based seat of Herbert, which Cathy O’Toole gained Labor by a handful of votes in 2016, the Liberal National Party is credited with a 51-49 lead, from primary votes of Labor 34% (30.5%), LNP 38% (35.5%), One Nation 19% (13.5%) and Greens 3% (6.3%). Sample: 554.

I also offer the following by-election news. If you would like to leave a comment on the by-election that’s not going to get lost in the flow, I can recommend this thread. See also the links to detailed guides for all five seats featured on the sidebar.

The West Australian reports Labor’s federal executive will today anoint the party’s candidate in Perth, which will almost certainly be its state secretary, Patrick Gorman. Prominent lawyer and former Cottesloe mayor John Hammond has also nominated, but it may be presumed that Gorman has the numbers. It was reported that an alternative scheme might involve Senator Louise Pratt contesting the seat, and her Senate vacancy going to Gorman. However, Latika Bourke of Fairfax reported yesterday that the plan had not found the favour of the Australian Manufacturing and Workers Union, the Left faction union that has long been Pratt’s power base.

• The Courier-Mail reports the Liberal National Party preselection in Longman is likely to be contested by Trevor Ruthenberg, who held the state seat of Kallangur from 2012 to 2015 and is now chief executive of the Mosaic Property Group’s philanthropic foundation, and Jason Snow, a disability support worker. One Nation has endorsed Caboolture small businessman Matthew Stephen, despite the controversy that attended his run for the state seat of Sandgate, in which it emerged he had repeatedly had his trades licence suspended, narrowly avoided bankruptcy, and was prone to politically incorrect utterances on social media.

The Mercury reports that a Liberal internal poll gave the party a 53-47 lead on federal voting intention in Braddon. However, it was also noted that the poll had a small sample and, as Kevin Bonham observes, the result may have been contaminated by the Liberals’ easy victory at the March state election. (UPDATE: Kevin Bonham explains in comments that I don’t have the right end of the handle here. “The 53 for the Liberals in Braddon in their internal poll sample is the primary not the 2PP. Labor was on 20 and the Greens were on 15. Hence (and there are other reasons too) my rubbishing of it whenever I have been asked. And that was the seat sample from a state sample of 756, so probably only about 150 voters.”)

• The Australian today stirs the pot on the eligibility of Cowan MP Anne Aly, who has only been able to provide a letter from the Egyptian embassy acknowledging its receipt of her application to renounce her citizenship dated two months before the 2016 election (UPDATE: Aly has today produced a letter from the Egyptian embassy that would appear to put the matter to rest).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

865 comments on “YouGov Galaxy budget polling: Robertson, Chisholm, Herbert”

Comments Page 12 of 18
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  1. A fascinating day indeed.

    Pick some words, any words,

    The envelope please.

    ♫Drum ♫roll♪

    Would the referee please read the two selections.

    Savva’s lack of logic in the matter was interesting.

    And their brains were bigger, they were taller, and they died earlier.

    Ladeez and Gerramun, there seems to be some confusion of a, perhaps, mechanical or biological nature.

    Normal transmission will resume immediately the NBN has been restored.

    Goodnight all. 💤💤💤

  2. zoomster says:
    Friday, May 11, 2018 at 7:26 pm
    I tend to think that one of the great attractions of settled living, compared to nomadism, is that it lets you accumulate stuff.

    There’s only a limited number of pots, for example, that you can cart around with you. So there’s not much work for a specialist potter.

    However, living in the one place all the time means you can have as many pots (or whatever) as you like…and thus there is an incentive for people to make them for you.

    True, but there are few places in the world where you can live in the one place and not practice agriculture.

    Agriculture produced surplus, but not only that, it was storable surplus, in the form of grains, which could last for years if properly stored and cared for, and secure from the depredations of rodents, insects and so on.

    This was only possible where there were the appropriate plants, typically grains of a particular type, which could be harvested from large fields of monoculture, and could be stored safely for years if necessary for use as needed.

    This surplus allowed the development of kings (and later queens, especially in the Sudan), and their hangers on, priests and so on, who used the surplus to allow the creation of specialists in pottery, bread making, beer making, and metal and stone and jewellery working.

    It was agriculture that produced what we now call civilisation.

  3. Hi Propeller cap boy

    Your brain obviously has quality control issues over your fingertips, given the sheer quantity and poor quality of the bloviating pomposity you post on here.

    You are actually quite bright, but I wonder if you have ever actually … done anything with your life outside the cloisters of academia?

  4. Andrew_Earlwood @ #555 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 7:46 pm

    Hi Propeller cap boy

    Your brain obviously has quality control issues over your fingertips, given the sheer quantity and poor quality of the bloviating pomposity you post on here.

    You are actually quite bright, but I wonder if you have ever actually … done anything with your life outside the cloisters of academia?

    I have my reservations about the quality of work of prosecutors so I wouldn’t be too hard on Nicholas.

  5. Boerwar says:
    Friday, May 11, 2018 at 7:55 pm
    ‘don
    It was agriculture that produced what we now call civilisation.’

    I blame agriculture too.

    Feel free to go back to a hunter gatherer existence. You’ll need a different skill set from what most people have.

    Be prepared for feast and famine, and early death. Neanderthals and Cro Magnons (the latter being anatomically modern humans) were very old in their forties. Live fast and die young.

  6. One of my posts just got et.

    I said: This tweet just got me heaps and heaps of retweets:
    *******
    I can’t wait until we have a federal ICAC under ALP. And I hope they employ Rowena Orr after she finishes her gig at Banking RC. First cab off rank? #Parakeelia and the funnelling of taxpayer funds into Lib party coffers. #auspol

  7. clinton and gillard were not primarily victims of misogyny – they were mistrusted for other reasons – but gender wars came into play, and too readily, as secondary squirmishes for sure, and often disguising main contention

    however both clinton and gillard have been wrong to over-stress misogyny, and fail to admit real source of public controversy surrounding them (whether right or wrong)

  8. “Agriculture ….” etc etc
    Some archaeologists consider agriculture and it more permanent settlements as a retrograde step in human evolution, driven by population pressure and not food security…. The hours spent working by early agriculturists far outweigh the hours spent working by hunter-gatherers and these early farm settlements were tremendous disease incubators….

  9. ‘don says:
    Friday, May 11, 2018 at 8:00 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Friday, May 11, 2018 at 7:55 pm
    ‘don
    It was agriculture that produced what we now call civilisation.’

    I blame agriculture too.

    Feel free to go back to a hunter gatherer existence. You’ll need a different skill set from what most people have.

    Be prepared for feast and famine, and early death. Neanderthals and Cro Magnons (the latter being anatomically modern humans) were very old in their forties. Live fast and die young.’

    Yep.

    I reckon I would have a head start on most.
    I know how to make stone tools, including spear heads and including how to sharpen a stone axe. I can light a fire with sticks. I know many of the plant foods, which leaves to use for stunning fish in small pools and which condiment to use to poison a spearhead against people.

    But by far and away the two most useful tools for serious food getting lack glam: digging sticks and coolamons.

  10. ‘pica says:
    Friday, May 11, 2018 at 8:10 pm

    “Agriculture ….” etc etc
    Some archaeologists consider agriculture and it more permanent settlements as a retrograde step in human evolution, driven by population pressure and not food security…. The hours spent working by early agriculturists far outweigh the hours spent working by hunter-gatherers and these early farm settlements were tremendous disease incubators….’

    Yes. But, then again, you would not be writing this post…

  11. DN – I thought Turnbull and Sco-Mo looked shocking in the news tonight. A pair of smug arseholes more interested in stupid puns than a sensible discussion about the bread and butter issues facing ordinary Australians. Howard would never have made that mistake. Appalling.

  12. pica @ #567 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 8:10 pm

    “Agriculture ….” etc etc
    Some archaeologists consider agriculture and it more permanent settlements as a retrograde step in human evolution, driven by population pressure and not food security…. The hours spent working by early agriculturists far outweigh the hours spent working by hunter-gatherers and these early farm settlements were tremendous disease incubators….

    No, our big mistake was coming down from the trees in the first place – Douglas Adams.

  13. i take the point that agriculture has had it advantages and I am an unapologetic user of modern agricultural goods, but nevertheless it doesn’t fit neatly into a progress story when critically evaluated, as some archeo folk have done,

  14. The by elections are immaterial as punters will be back to the polls again in less than 12 months.Id be sticking with Newspoll and Essential for any voting changes.

  15. BK @ #580 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 5:30 pm

    Morrison and Turnbull have been reduced to switching to puerile comedy – and it doesn’t work!

    Humour usually requires that you are in touch with your audience and as Morrison demonstrated this morning when your not in touch then it can very easily be turned back on you. 🙂

  16. BK

    It is very telling and surprising that they have taken that path rather than the traditional “black hole” ,’

    It would suggest the story today about the Budget being in the making since the middle of last year aiming at nothing more than wedging Labor is true.

  17. Barney in Go Dau @ #587 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 8:40 pm

    bemused @ #586 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 5:38 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #578 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 8:29 pm

    Downer says she will seek pre-selection for Mayo.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-11/georgina-downer-to-run-in-mayo-liberal-party-adelaide-hills/9753448

    Rebekha Sharkie should be hoping she wins the preselection.

    Yep, with plenty of Town Halls and debates together. 🙂

    Downer has to win the pre-selection first.
    BK should be using his influence. 😉

  18. bemused @ #590 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 5:43 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #587 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 8:40 pm

    bemused @ #586 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 5:38 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #578 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 8:29 pm

    Downer says she will seek pre-selection for Mayo.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-11/georgina-downer-to-run-in-mayo-liberal-party-adelaide-hills/9753448

    Rebekha Sharkie should be hoping she wins the preselection.

    Yep, with plenty of Town Halls and debates together. 🙂

    Downer has to win the pre-selection first.
    BK should be using his influence. 😉

    I’m not sure he’d need to, I’d imagine Daddy is helping with the numbers! 🙂

  19. I’ve read (I forget where) that the story of Adam and Eve and the expulsion from Paradise was a metaphor for the transition fron Hunter-gatherer life to settled farming. So instead of life in a garden where everything was provided, you had to earn your living from the hard slog of farming. All punishment for seeking knowledge instead of accepting what God provided like all the other creatures.

  20. poroti @ #584 Friday, May 11th, 2018 – 6:39 pm

    Confessions

    Yes indeed, they have aged little since this adorable snapshot was taken

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Too funny. Actually Jamie Briggs turned up in today’s Crikey as having been at the top table at Labor’s post budget in reply speech dinner, as a representative of Price Waterhouse Coopers. He apparently sat with Bill and Chloe.

    I can just imagine the dinner convo.

  21. player one
    agriculture also resulted from need to enclosures to protect from predatorial species – something uniquely not required on this continent
    i think there were agriculture practices early in human ‘occupation’ of continent esp northern coast but that these were not taken up by most tribes or peoples. it is important to note that agriculture was not unknown in our first peoples i.e. not a product of ‘advanced’ societies in middle east or elsewhere, much later in time, but that it was not widely practiced for economic and ideological reasons.

    and ps humans probably were never in trees (someone else raised this)

  22. Andrew_Earlwood

    A ‘pot-kettle’ matched by the US sending a congrats a couple of days ago to Lebanon re their elections. Amongst their well wishes was an exhortation that they abide by international agreements.

  23. Our great LNP will win the seats of longman Braddon Perth freemantle and mayo and will have six seat majority and go on to win the next election

  24. Yep Sally

    Sally McManus

    Verified account

    @sallymcmanus
    7h7 hours ago
    More
    budget means:
    $3.76 a week for a minimum wage worker and $137.60 for someone on $200,000 a year. That the logic of #TenBuckTurnbull

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