ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

ReachTEL becomes the latest pollster to record movement in favour of the Coalition.

The latest monthly ReachTEL result for Sky News records Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 54-46 a month ago. The Coalition are up two on the primary vote to 36%, Labor is down one to 35%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are down one to 6%. On the forced response preferred prime minister question, Malcolm Turnbull now leads 54.5-45.5, out from 52.3-47.7 last time.

Stay tuned for a post on the by-election that now looms in the seat of Perth, following Tim Hammond’s surprise retirement announcement.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

953 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Jay says:
    Friday, May 4, 2018 at 7:56 pm
    @don

    Actually I have following the opinion polls, which have been showing a steady closing of the gap between Labor and the Coalition. If the Coalition delivers a well recevied budget that will no doubtly close even further.

    Not according to William’s Bludger track, which is 52% to 48% in Labor’s favour.

    2.5% better than the last election.

    The trend is your friend.

    Tell me, what do you know that William Bowe doesn’t?

    Not a lot, is my estimate. Negative territory.

    In addition:

    Ladbroke’s betting odds:

    NEXT FEDERAL ELECTION
    Coalition
    $2.50
    Labor
    $1.40

    Read ’em and weep.

  2. poroti says:
    Friday, May 4, 2018 at 7:40 pm
    don

    I’m thinking 100 mg was the actual quoted figure.
    _______________________

    I’m saying that is wrong.

  3. Peter Brent from Mumble does not think that the Perth by-election will be as easy of a Labor win than you predict.

    To be fair to Mumble this is what he actually said about how the Liberals might win Perth in a by-election.

    How could the Liberals take Perth? By running a candidate who is already well known and liked.

    Remember the only federal by-election since Federation that has seen a Labor government achieve a positive swing? It happened in 1994 in Fremantle, Western Australia, during the Keating government’s doomed final term, and was thanks to the phenomenal popularity of Labor’s candidate, former premier Carmen Lawrence. Do the Liberals have an equivalent available? A sports star perhaps?

    http://insidestory.org.au/swan-song/

  4. “I think historians will lump both the Abbott and Turnbull governments together.”

    I agree. Enemies lumped together in memory for as long as anyone bothers with early 21st century Australian history, rather like that other pair Rudd and Gillard.

    Maybe that’s how Australian political history goes, in roughly decadal cycles:

    Curtin – Chifley 1941-1949
    Menzies plus lesser successors 1950-1972
    Whitlam-Fraser 1973-1983. 1975 was less of a break than we thought at the time.
    Hawke-Keating 1983-1996
    Howard-Costello’s dismal decade and a bit: 1996-2007. Although Costello never got the big prize.
    Decade of Chaos 2008-2018 after a promising start from Rudd.
    2019 – 2030? Hopefully something better. Alternatives are more chaos or the road to authoritarianism.


  5. Jay says:
    ..
    Labor will win fairly comfortably in the coming election.

    Not exactly what Peter wrote is it Jay?

  6. poroti @ #881 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 7:23 pm

    WTF ? Crikey those Skripals are tough hombres. An LD50 dose is about 0.0015 grams but hey ho even and attack using 666,666 times as much did not kill them. Or perhaps they got their economics reporter to read what the OPCW wrote ? 🙂
    .
    “Up to 100 grams of liquid nerve agent were used in the attack on former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia, the head of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) has said.”
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/05/04/100g-nerve-agent-novichok-used-skripals-chemical-weapons-watchdog/

    It’s the Torygraph, so orders of magnitude errors would not surprise me, but the LD50s of known agents, like sarin or VX are for respiratory exposure in mice. The point that the (administrative) head of OPCW is making is that the likely cutaneous (skin) or mucosal (mouth & eyes) exposure on hands is not an efficient way of poisoning someone, so the likely amount of exposure to get the effect was relatively large. The exposure of both of the Skripals would be orders of magnitude less – but not measurable post hoc.

  7. don

    If the OPCW said 100 g then they are definitely not fit for purpose. 100 mg however much more likely what they actually said.

    Actually I’m thinking ‘Fake News” Just went to the OPCW web site and under the “Salisbury Incident” ‘Press Releases’ and “Related Official Documents” sections there is nowt about any quantity let alone 100g

  8. Just thinking!

    Has there ever been 4 or more by-elections in one Parliament before?

    New England,
    Bennelong,
    Batman
    and now Perth!

    🙂

  9. No, Labor will not win the next election I’m afraid.
    Everything is lining up for a fecking come from behind win for the Tories.
    Prepare for massive disappointment now.
    I am.

  10. The liberals have Colin Barnett; that should work out well. Perhaps Troy Buswell sniffing a few chairs could pull it off. Get real Jay

  11. @don

    I rely more on the election pendulum than the poll-tracker and on a 2.5% it shows Labor
    gaining 11 seats.

  12. Labor supporters can be a depressing lot at times!

    Stop being so pessimistic Mundo!

    Labor seem to be taking nothing for granted and are doing the policy work needed to be ready to take over and be effective! 🙂

  13. Brent’s view of Hammond is a bit sour.

    If you read and listen to what Hammond said in his reasons for pulling the pin he used the word “sad” a few times.

    Maybe he could have hung in and then in a year or so we could have been looking at a mental health issue.

    Hammond realised that the job was not for him and is resigning.

    How many times a day does that happen in the real world? I am sure we all have experience of that in our workplaces.

    But for some reason politicians are judged by a higher standard.


  14. Jay says:
    Friday, May 4, 2018 at 8:28 pm

    @don

    I rely more on the election pendulum than the poll-tracker and on a 2.5% it shows Labor
    gaining 11 seats.

    Get a crystal ball have you Jay?

  15. Steve777 @ #885 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 7:29 pm

    My call to pay teachers for every hour they work was misrepresented by vested interests as an attack on the profession.
    ANDREW LAMING

    That imbecile seems to think that the hours a teacher stands in front of a class is equal to the hours they work.

    How about we pay MPs only for the hours Parliament sits. I’m sure Mr Laming would agree.

    Or the time they are on their feet speaking. 😛


  16. Confessions says:
    Friday, May 4, 2018 at 8:38 pm

    ..

    Colin Barnett retired. Troy Buswell is a memory the Libs would rather forget, I’m sure.

    Just trying to help Jay out. Best I can come up with. A sports star is what mumble wants; how about Margaret Court; would get full support from the mad right.

  17. I really don’t see how the Coalition can win the next election. Redistributions aside, they only need to lose one seat to lose their majority. That is hardly a tall order, given the way the polling has gone ever since the last election. It’s only a question of how big the ALP majority will be.

  18. bemused @ #920 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 5:43 pm

    Steve777 @ #885 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 7:29 pm

    My call to pay teachers for every hour they work was misrepresented by vested interests as an attack on the profession.
    ANDREW LAMING

    That imbecile seems to think that the hours a teacher stands in front of a class is equal to the hours they work.

    How about we pay MPs only for the hours Parliament sits. I’m sure Mr Laming would agree.

    Or the time they are on their feet speaking. 😛

    Save us, they’d be lucky to pass one piece of legislation each year. 🙂

  19. Jay @ #893 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 7:48 pm

    @Darn

    You might be disappointed, I really believe the Turnbull government will rescue a victory (very likely a minority government) out the jaws of defeat. If the Liberals win the Perth by-election, I will be proved right.

    Sigh…. just another troll.

  20. In answer to my question;

    Has there ever been 4 or more by-elections in one Parliament before?

    Yes!!!

    The 20th Parliament had 10 by-elections,

    the 4th had 5,
    the 7th had 6,
    the 8th had 6,
    the 10th had 5,
    the 14th had 5,
    the 22nd had 5,
    the 23rd had 6,
    the 25th had 7,
    the 26th had 6,
    the 32nd had 6,
    the 33rd had 6,
    the 35th had 5,
    the 37th had 8 and
    the 42nd had 5.

    So not even close to being special!! 🙂

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Australian_federal_by-elections

  21. bemused @ #932 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 7:25 pm

    But ‘full support’ is a primary vote of 100%.
    Not even dictators achieve that. Their modesty restrains them to a mere 90% or so.

    Labor has always* received 100% of the primary vote in my household. 😉

    * Except in the NSW state election in 2011, however there were extenuating circumstances in that election. Despite not getting my primary, they still got my second preference.

  22. Barney in Go Dau @ #933 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 7:26 pm

    Dan Gulberry @ #931 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 6:23 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #930 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 7:13 pm

    Who ever has? 🙂

    Ric Charlesworth (a sports star) got enough support to see him elected a few times. Margaret Court is not Ric Charlesworth or even close.

    What he got 100% of 1st preference votes?

    WOW!!!!

    He did in my household. Same amongst my peer group. So if we extrapolate that sample to represent the whole electorate, then yes he did get 100% of the primaries. (Isn’t statistics/psephology a wonderful thing?) 😉

  23. Dan Gulberry @ #935 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 9:32 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #933 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 7:26 pm

    Dan Gulberry @ #931 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 6:23 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #930 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 7:13 pm

    Who ever has? 🙂

    Ric Charlesworth (a sports star) got enough support to see him elected a few times. Margaret Court is not Ric Charlesworth or even close.

    What he got 100% of 1st preference votes?

    WOW!!!!

    He did in my household. Same amongst my peer group. So if we extrapolate that sample to represent the whole electorate, then yes he did get 100% of the primaries. (Isn’t statistics/psephology a wonderful thing?) 😉

    A fundamental requirement is that to do any effective statistical infreence, you must have a representative, unbiased sample.
    You failed.

  24. Rudolph W. Giuliani’s media blitz to convince the public that neither Donald Trump nor his lawyer had violated the law by paying a porn star to keep quiet about an alleged affair might have backfired, giving investigators new leads to chase and new evidence of potential crimes, legal analysts said.

    Giuliani made statements that speak to Trump and lawyer Michael Cohen’s intent — an important aspect of some crimes — and he made assertions that investigators can now check against what they have already learned from documents and witnesses, legal analysts said. His comments to media outlets underscore a growing tension for the White House: The FBI investigation of Cohen presents a legal problem for the president that his own lawyer might have exacerbated.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/analysts-giulianis-media-blitz-gives-investigators-new-leads-new-evidence/2018/05/03/a7e86aaa-4ee5-11e8-af46-b1d6dc0d9bfe_story.html?utm_term=.b6eb517891fb

    There surely has to be a tweet about legal representation over-reach!

  25. poroti @ #881 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 7:23 pm

    An LD50 dose is about 0.0015 grams

    The proper units for LD50 are ‘grams per kilogram (of body mass)’. And also the LD50 amount of a substance can vary depending upon the method of exposure.

    Whatever source it is that gave “about 0.0015 grams” as an LD50 is not doing proper science.

  26. This sentence seems very minimal considering the ongoing abuse.

    A man who strangled, spat on and burnt his ex-girlfriend before forcing her car into oncoming traffic causing a head-on crash, has been sentenced to five years in prison.

    Douglas Heath Deacon was charged with a string of domestic violence offences after the crash in Brisbane in February 2017, including dangerous driving causing grievous bodily harm and assault.

    The District Court in Brisbane heard the 24-year-old had violently attacked his former partner on multiple occasions over a one-year period prior to the collision.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-04/man-who-sent-ex-girlfriends-car-into-oncoming-traffic-sentenced/9727560

  27. Rossmcg at 8:31 pm

    “Hammond realised that the job was not for him and is resigning.

    How many times a day does that happen in the real world? I am sure we all have experience of that in our workplaces.

    But for some reason politicians are judged by a higher standard.”

    Perhaps it’s because when MPs quit, it costs the taxpayers > $1 million to replace them, and forces all the lucky people in the electorate concerned to traipse off to a polling booth again.

  28. It doesn’t really matter that Labor has won 21 Newspolls in a row.
    The next election will be won by the party takes enough seats to form a majority in the House of Reps.
    As Harold Wilson said: “A week is a long time in politics.”

  29. The Liberals might have had a sporting celebrity candidate but sadly for them is now the coach of the Australian cricket team.

  30. With the Banking RC and now the Public Service review, I see two more reasons why the Government want to hang around until next year before going to an election.

    They would want to be in a position to legislate changes before an election rather than leave it to Labor to implement any legislation after one.

    That to me seems their clear intent at the moment, whether it works out that way who knows!

    If the Banking RC asks for an extension for more hearings then that would change the electoral dynamics as it would mean that they had no control over implementing the recommendations.

    The announcement of some policies already shows their willingness to push ahead with their minimalist agenda hoping to stave off the worst of the RC. 🙂

  31. The Toorak Toff @ #945 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 8:49 pm

    It doesn’t really matter that Labor has won 21 Newspolls in a row.
    The next election will be won by the party takes enough seats to form a majority in the House of Reps.
    As Harold Wilson said: “A week is a long time in politics.”

    And a Royal Commission is an eternity!! 🙂

    By the way it’s 31 Newspolls.

  32. UK Locals latest, 147 of 150 councils reporting

    Councillors Lab 2,262 (+58) / Con 1,318 (-28)

    Councils Lab 72 (-1) / Con 46 (-2)

    BBC House of Commons forecast using yesterdays local election votes is – Labour largest party

    Lab 283 (+21) / Con 280 (-38)

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