The latest monthly ReachTEL result for Sky News records Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 54-46 a month ago. The Coalition are up two on the primary vote to 36%, Labor is down one to 35%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are down one to 6%. On the forced response preferred prime minister question, Malcolm Turnbull now leads 54.5-45.5, out from 52.3-47.7 last time.
Stay tuned for a post on the by-election that now looms in the seat of Perth, following Tim Hammond’s surprise retirement announcement.
😮
https://twitter.com/TheLastWord/status/992233888016732160
Jay says:
Friday, May 4, 2018 at 7:56 pm
@don
Actually I have following the opinion polls, which have been showing a steady closing of the gap between Labor and the Coalition. If the Coalition delivers a well recevied budget that will no doubtly close even further.
Not according to William’s Bludger track, which is 52% to 48% in Labor’s favour.
2.5% better than the last election.
The trend is your friend.
Tell me, what do you know that William Bowe doesn’t?
Not a lot, is my estimate. Negative territory.
In addition:
Ladbroke’s betting odds:
NEXT FEDERAL ELECTION
Coalition
$2.50
Labor
$1.40
Read ’em and weep.
poroti says:
Friday, May 4, 2018 at 7:40 pm
don
I’m thinking 100 mg was the actual quoted figure.
_______________________
I’m saying that is wrong.
To be fair to Mumble this is what he actually said about how the Liberals might win Perth in a by-election.
http://insidestory.org.au/swan-song/
Peter Brent’s article.
http://insidestory.org.au/swan-song/
“I think historians will lump both the Abbott and Turnbull governments together.”
I agree. Enemies lumped together in memory for as long as anyone bothers with early 21st century Australian history, rather like that other pair Rudd and Gillard.
Maybe that’s how Australian political history goes, in roughly decadal cycles:
Curtin – Chifley 1941-1949
Menzies plus lesser successors 1950-1972
Whitlam-Fraser 1973-1983. 1975 was less of a break than we thought at the time.
Hawke-Keating 1983-1996
Howard-Costello’s dismal decade and a bit: 1996-2007. Although Costello never got the big prize.
Decade of Chaos 2008-2018 after a promising start from Rudd.
2019 – 2030? Hopefully something better. Alternatives are more chaos or the road to authoritarianism.
Jay says:
..
Labor will win fairly comfortably in the coming election.
Not exactly what Peter wrote is it Jay?
poroti @ #881 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 7:23 pm
It’s the Torygraph, so orders of magnitude errors would not surprise me, but the LD50s of known agents, like sarin or VX are for respiratory exposure in mice. The point that the (administrative) head of OPCW is making is that the likely cutaneous (skin) or mucosal (mouth & eyes) exposure on hands is not an efficient way of poisoning someone, so the likely amount of exposure to get the effect was relatively large. The exposure of both of the Skripals would be orders of magnitude less – but not measurable post hoc.
don
If the OPCW said 100 g then they are definitely not fit for purpose. 100 mg however much more likely what they actually said.
Actually I’m thinking ‘Fake News” Just went to the OPCW web site and under the “Salisbury Incident” ‘Press Releases’ and “Related Official Documents” sections there is nowt about any quantity let alone 100g
Just thinking!
Has there ever been 4 or more by-elections in one Parliament before?
New England,
Bennelong,
Batman
and now Perth!
🙂
No, Labor will not win the next election I’m afraid.
Everything is lining up for a fecking come from behind win for the Tories.
Prepare for massive disappointment now.
I am.
The liberals have Colin Barnett; that should work out well. Perhaps Troy Buswell sniffing a few chairs could pull it off. Get real Jay
@don
I rely more on the election pendulum than the poll-tracker and on a 2.5% it shows Labor
gaining 11 seats.
Labor supporters can be a depressing lot at times!
Stop being so pessimistic Mundo!
Labor seem to be taking nothing for granted and are doing the policy work needed to be ready to take over and be effective! 🙂
Brent’s view of Hammond is a bit sour.
If you read and listen to what Hammond said in his reasons for pulling the pin he used the word “sad” a few times.
Maybe he could have hung in and then in a year or so we could have been looking at a mental health issue.
Hammond realised that the job was not for him and is resigning.
How many times a day does that happen in the real world? I am sure we all have experience of that in our workplaces.
But for some reason politicians are judged by a higher standard.
Mundo; if the Liberals win the next election, things are what they are and Australia deserves everything we get; it is not as if the Liberals incompetence is a secret..
Pretty clear whinging wendy will need to have another run however.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VX5qnUR1UVg
Jay says:
Friday, May 4, 2018 at 8:28 pm
@don
I rely more on the election pendulum than the poll-tracker and on a 2.5% it shows Labor
gaining 11 seats.
Get a crystal ball have you Jay?
David Murray to chair AMP. What a backward looking, pathetic appointment. Inbreeding gone mad!
frednk @ #1011 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 6:24 pm
Colin Barnett retired. Troy Buswell is a memory the Libs would rather forget, I’m sure.
Steve777 @ #885 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 7:29 pm
Or the time they are on their feet speaking. 😛
Confessions says:
Friday, May 4, 2018 at 8:38 pm
..
Colin Barnett retired. Troy Buswell is a memory the Libs would rather forget, I’m sure.
Just trying to help Jay out. Best I can come up with. A sports star is what mumble wants; how about Margaret Court; would get full support from the mad right.
I really don’t see how the Coalition can win the next election. Redistributions aside, they only need to lose one seat to lose their majority. That is hardly a tall order, given the way the polling has gone ever since the last election. It’s only a question of how big the ALP majority will be.
bemused @ #920 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 5:43 pm
Save us, they’d be lucky to pass one piece of legislation each year. 🙂
Or Damian Drum could jump in from the Senate. What could go wrong.
Barney
We definitely havent had as many senators replaced mid term!
Jay @ #893 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 7:48 pm
Sigh…. just another troll.
frednk @ #921 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 6:44 pm
She certainly wouldn’t get full support from the voters in Perth.
Mundo @ #911 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 8:24 pm
Another troll spreading doom and gloom.
In answer to my question;
Has there ever been 4 or more by-elections in one Parliament before?
Yes!!!
The 20th Parliament had 10 by-elections,
the 4th had 5,
the 7th had 6,
the 8th had 6,
the 10th had 5,
the 14th had 5,
the 22nd had 5,
the 23rd had 6,
the 25th had 7,
the 26th had 6,
the 32nd had 6,
the 33rd had 6,
the 35th had 5,
the 37th had 8 and
the 42nd had 5.
So not even close to being special!! 🙂
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Australian_federal_by-elections
Dan Gulberry @ #927 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 6:07 pm
Who ever has? 🙂
Barney in Go Dau @ #930 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 7:13 pm
Ric Charlesworth (a sports star) got enough support to see him elected a few times. Margaret Court is not Ric Charlesworth or even close.
Dan Gulberry @ #931 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 9:23 pm
But ‘full support’ is a primary vote of 100%.
Not even dictators achieve that. Their modesty restrains them to a mere 90% or so.
Dan Gulberry @ #931 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 6:23 pm
What he got 100% of 1st preference votes?
WOW!!!!
bemused @ #932 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 7:25 pm
Labor has always* received 100% of the primary vote in my household. 😉
* Except in the NSW state election in 2011, however there were extenuating circumstances in that election. Despite not getting my primary, they still got my second preference.
Barney in Go Dau @ #933 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 7:26 pm
He did in my household. Same amongst my peer group. So if we extrapolate that sample to represent the whole electorate, then yes he did get 100% of the primaries. (Isn’t statistics/psephology a wonderful thing?) 😉
Dan Gulberry @ #935 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 9:32 pm
A fundamental requirement is that to do any effective statistical infreence, you must have a representative, unbiased sample.
You failed.
bemused @ #936 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 7:38 pm
All complaints should be addressed to someone who cares. 😆
Dan Gulberry @ #937 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 9:42 pm
I care.
If I am observed mumbling to myself it will be all your fault.
Too much infreence is barely enough.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/analysts-giulianis-media-blitz-gives-investigators-new-leads-new-evidence/2018/05/03/a7e86aaa-4ee5-11e8-af46-b1d6dc0d9bfe_story.html?utm_term=.b6eb517891fb
There surely has to be a tweet about legal representation over-reach!
Just been looking over the list of by-elections and this one stood out;
Hugh Mahon, the only person disqualified from the federal Parliament.
Interesting story, here’s his wiki page. 🙂
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugh_Mahon
poroti @ #881 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 7:23 pm
The proper units for LD50 are ‘grams per kilogram (of body mass)’. And also the LD50 amount of a substance can vary depending upon the method of exposure.
Whatever source it is that gave “about 0.0015 grams” as an LD50 is not doing proper science.
This sentence seems very minimal considering the ongoing abuse.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-04/man-who-sent-ex-girlfriends-car-into-oncoming-traffic-sentenced/9727560
Rossmcg at 8:31 pm
“Hammond realised that the job was not for him and is resigning.
How many times a day does that happen in the real world? I am sure we all have experience of that in our workplaces.
But for some reason politicians are judged by a higher standard.”
Perhaps it’s because when MPs quit, it costs the taxpayers > $1 million to replace them, and forces all the lucky people in the electorate concerned to traipse off to a polling booth again.
It doesn’t really matter that Labor has won 21 Newspolls in a row.
The next election will be won by the party takes enough seats to form a majority in the House of Reps.
As Harold Wilson said: “A week is a long time in politics.”
The Liberals might have had a sporting celebrity candidate but sadly for them is now the coach of the Australian cricket team.
With the Banking RC and now the Public Service review, I see two more reasons why the Government want to hang around until next year before going to an election.
They would want to be in a position to legislate changes before an election rather than leave it to Labor to implement any legislation after one.
That to me seems their clear intent at the moment, whether it works out that way who knows!
If the Banking RC asks for an extension for more hearings then that would change the electoral dynamics as it would mean that they had no control over implementing the recommendations.
The announcement of some policies already shows their willingness to push ahead with their minimalist agenda hoping to stave off the worst of the RC. 🙂
The Toorak Toff @ #945 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 8:49 pm
And a Royal Commission is an eternity!! 🙂
By the way it’s 31 Newspolls.
And Lab +58, Con -7; Left +112, Right -128.
UK Locals latest, 147 of 150 councils reporting
Councillors Lab 2,262 (+58) / Con 1,318 (-28)
Councils Lab 72 (-1) / Con 46 (-2)
BBC House of Commons forecast using yesterdays local election votes is – Labour largest party
Lab 283 (+21) / Con 280 (-38)