ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

ReachTEL becomes the latest pollster to record movement in favour of the Coalition.

The latest monthly ReachTEL result for Sky News records Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 54-46 a month ago. The Coalition are up two on the primary vote to 36%, Labor is down one to 35%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are down one to 6%. On the forced response preferred prime minister question, Malcolm Turnbull now leads 54.5-45.5, out from 52.3-47.7 last time.

Stay tuned for a post on the by-election that now looms in the seat of Perth, following Tim Hammond’s surprise retirement announcement.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

953 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. So I just searched and got a Department of Primary Industries (NSW) fact sheet. It occurs in a band from Moree to albury. (Anthrax)

  2. Andrew_Earlwood @ #846 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 2:13 pm

    Hmmm.

    I don’t see that there is many lessons or takeouts from the local governemnt elections in the UK for the forecoming national election, other than discerning whether there have been some emerging voting trends. If the local government elections were actually particularly relevant then ‘The Wrong Miliband Brother’ would have won the GE in 2015 with about 450 seats. That didn’t happen. Obviously.

    Regrettably in counting overnight I don’t see a trend back to Labour in regions containing the seats it needs to win at the next GE. Quite the opposite. Alas.

    Next GE is 4 years away!

  3. There are many ways to cripple Australia: one of which would be to vote Turnbull back in at the next election.

  4. There are many ways to cripple Australia: one of which would be to vote Turnbull back in at the next election.

    That’s the crux of the matter requiring urgent attention.
    Also the uber tuber MUST be demoted.

  5. Anthrax last for decades and decades in soil; and it is all over the place. An outbreak indicates little more than conditions were right for their activation.

  6. BK (Block)
    Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 6:22 pm
    Comment #861

    Want a good dose of “fake news”?

    Bravo, Bravo ❗ Wunderbar — Meraviglioso.

  7. By the metric you used Teresa May is a political genius because the Tory share of the national vote was about 10 points higher in 2017 than 2005

    Andrew Earlwood, you are not very bright. You seem to believe that the neoliberal Third Way centrism that created the financial crises and the social catastrophes and the economic decay that societies have been struggling with for decades is a viable pathway for UK Labour. The people of the UK don’t agree with you, and they are right to find Corbyn-led Labour policies superior to the economically illiterate and politically craven policies offered by Corbyn’s predecessors. If you consider yourself a progressive, you have a a weird dual personality dynamic going on. You don’t seem to be very attentive to policy specifics and the history of economic policy; you just enjoy feeling smug about being “sticking it to lefties”. For you, politics is just about tribes, not evidence, not the realities of people’s lives, not justice, not fairness, not widening the range of options, nothing substantive. I’m glad you have a hobby to sustain you – to each his own, I guess. But it would be better to find something more meaningful and fulfilling to do with your life.

  8. On the Public Service review, the article doesn’t mention when it is due to report.

    This made me laugh;

    In a statement, Turnbull and O’Dwyer said the Australian Public Service “must be apolitical, professional and efficient”.

    “It needs to drive policy and implementation, using technology and data to deliver for the Australian community,” they said.

    They cited the fact the fundamentals of the public sector “reflect the outcomes of a royal commission held back in the mid 1970s”.

    Yeah, right, with this mob.

    I would dispute using the word “efficient” and replace it with “effective”.

    Being effective is far more important than being efficient.

    I’m in a 100m race and the gun goes;

    I can be efficient and just stand there, not very effective; or

    I can be effective and run; sure

    if I get half way and see I’m well in front I can be efficient and slow down but

    first and foremost I must be effective.

    Also, “drive policy,” FFS, no wonder these guys have none, they’re waiting for the IPA or Public Service to give it to them!

    I’m sure that the Public Service hasn’t been negligent in advising on and suggesting policy but the Government sets the agenda, so with this mob most of it probably goes in the filing cabinet.

    This is all scary stuff especially if they think they have “independent” backing and are able to cherry pick the bits they like! 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/04/review-sparks-fears-coalition-set-to-outsource-public-service-jobs

  9. “If I was the praying sort, I’d pray for his defeat. He’s a wily coyote, tho.”

    We’ve see “African Gangs” (black); we’ve seen “African Farmers” (white). He’ll be looking for something which he can use to scare the punters. Expect “Terror” (by brown people with a scary religion, but not white Anglo Far Right nutjobs) to get a run before the next election. If he can find a way to beat up on asylum seekers without actual boats arriving – say a riot among the desparate on Nauru – he’ll exploit it ruthlessly.

    And don’t bother praying. God votes ‘Liberal”.

  10. Libertarian Unionist says:
    Friday, May 4, 2018 at 2:56 pm
    Fissure eruption starts in Leilani Estates, Hawai`i:

    Wow.

    Showed it to my (Honolulu-born) Dad. Yep, that happens, he said.

    Hawaii is on top of a broad ‘hot spot’ as the islands move across it, pushed by the motion of the tectonic plates.

    Which is why the islands are a chain.

    There is another island forming to the east of the present islands, but it has not appeared above the waves yet.

    I was very sad that in 1966 the volcanoes were not active on the big island – though I did manage to walk across the bottom of the caldera at that time which is now made up of red hot lava.

    The Hawaiian islands dwarf the Himalayas, if you measure from their base deep below the ocean surface to the peaks.

  11. Rhwombat, why do you think they spent so much money in getting rid of the fire ants around Brisbane (I don’t think they have been completely successful yet).

    No one buys coal that may have fire ants in it!

  12. Laming tries to extract foot from mouth.

    This is a SMH headline on their internet home page, as I don’t intend to link to what the character has written.

    Andrew Laming: this is what I really meant about teachers’ pay

    My call to pay teachers for every hour they work was misrepresented by vested interests as an attack on the profession.
    ANDREW LAMING

  13. In a statement, Turnbull and O’Dwyer said the Australian Public Service “must be apolitical, professional and efficient”.

    “It needs to drive policy and implementation, using technology and data to deliver for the Australian community,” they said.

    They cited the fact the fundamentals of the public sector “reflect the outcomes of a royal commission held back in the mid 1970s”.

    Didn’t the Howard govt in its dying weeks and months make similar proclamations? It’s as if the Tories know their term in govt is ending and can’t bear the thought that their opponents in office will politicise the APS and govt appointments just like they did.

  14. In a statement, Turnbull and O’Dwyer said the Australian Public Service “must be apolitical, professional and efficient”

    They mean ‘apolitical’ in the same sense that the IPA and BCA say that they are ‘apolitical’ or ‘non-partisan’.

    As for ‘professional’ and ‘efficient’, that means they only give advice that supports the Coalition’s policies / thought-bubbles.

  15. Libertarian Unionist says:
    Friday, May 4, 2018 at 4:16 pm
    Dartmoor: a grand old-growth forest totally destroyed by humans.

    To be fair, that description fits most of Europe.

    To be fair, forests come and forests go on a scale of thousands of years, without human intervention, and especially during ice ages, which, for my sins, I do a lot of thinking and writing about.

    It all depends on temperature and rainfall, as you might expect, which are subject to the effects noted by Milankovitch.

    What has stuffed up the whole cycle is human interference in the form of carbon dioxide emissions, otherwise known as global warming.

    Plus, as you infer, cutting down of the forests.

  16. citizen @ #872 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 4:12 pm

    Laming tries to extract foot from mouth.

    This is a SMH headline on their internet home page, as I don’t intend to link to what the character has written.

    Andrew Laming: this is what I really meant about teachers’ pay

    My call to pay teachers for every hour they work was misrepresented by vested interests as an attack on the profession.
    ANDREW LAMING

    Fantastic, so is he now saying that teachers should be paid for their prep and marking time at home! 🙂

  17. The first thing Labor should do for the public service is to rid it of the IPA fellow that Abbott appointed as Public Service Commissioner.

  18. My call to pay teachers for every hour they work was misrepresented by vested interests as an attack on the profession.

    I assume he’s referring to the IPA as vested interests attacking his call to pay teachers fairly. After all, look at all the work they do outside of school hours for which they aren’t currently paid.

    😀

  19. WTF ? Crikey those Skripals are tough hombres. An LD50 dose is about 0.0015 grams but hey ho even and attack using 666,666 times as much did not kill them. Or perhaps they got their economics reporter to read what the OPCW wrote ? 🙂
    .
    “Up to 100 grams of liquid nerve agent were used in the attack on former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia, the head of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) has said.”
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/05/04/100g-nerve-agent-novichok-used-skripals-chemical-weapons-watchdog/

  20. I actually believe the Coalition can either form a minority government (with the support of Cathy McGowan and Bob Katter, if they get re-elected) or even win a razor thin majority. Actually a Coalition minority with Bob Katter’s support would actually be good. Since in all likelihood Bob Katter could force the Coalition to do what I will explain below.

    Because neither the Coalition, Labor or the Greens is advocating a policy which would ensure easy re-election if they implemented it. This is drastically reducing immigration numbers by at least 100,000 a year. High immigration levels are opposed by a majority of the electorate. For example; an Essential poll done in April reported 64% of voters said immigration levels were too high, versus 5% saying that immigration too low and 23% saying they were about right. The poll results are below if you want to read them.

    http://www.essentialvision.com.au/immigration-level-2

    In Melbourne and Sydney voters aren’t happy with consequences high population growth which has been caused by high immigration numbers. This is namely the massive strain on the infrastructure of both cities. For example; if the Victorian state coalition were smart enough in advocating policies to address this problem. There is little doubt that the Andrews state Labor government would be swept away in November.

    Although it could be likely Labor could win a reasonably comfortable victory, although I predict in that scenario there will be a heavy swings against the Coalition in Melbourne and Sydney. Although the swing against the Coalition would be a lot lighter in Queensland and Western Australia.

    In conclusion, I would argue both major parties advocating high immigration rates is a reason why Labor is not leading very much in the opinion polls. Despite the Turnbull government is quite dysfunctional and in more normal circumstances they would really behind in the opinion polls.

  21. Jay

    If neither major party is arguing the position you want them to, then it’s irrelevant when voters are deciding who to vote for. And it’s also irrelevant to Labor’s present polling.

  22. My call to pay teachers for every hour they work was misrepresented by vested interests as an attack on the profession.
    ANDREW LAMING

    That imbecile seems to think that the hours a teacher stands in front of a class is equal to the hours they work.

    How about we pay MPs only for the hours Parliament sits. I’m sure Mr Laming would agree.

  23. Poroti:

    100 grams of liquid nerve agent

    Sounds to me like someone is confusing the amount of liquid (100 ml) with the amount of nerve agent (you would expect a very small percentage of the liquid solution).

  24. Boerwar says:
    Friday, May 4, 2018 at 5:53 pm
    There are many ways to cripple Australia: one of which would be to vote Turnbull back in at the next election.

    No doubt about that. Any margin will do. Just get rid of the destructive bastards.

  25. @zoomster

    I would argue it is quite relevant to Labor’s recent polling, which is much lower than it should be. Given the Turnbull government (which is a shambles) is going to be remembered as one of the worst in Australian history. I think historians will lump both the Abbott and Turnbull governments together.

  26. Jay

    And if both majors are doing the same thing, then that’s no reason for voters to prefer one over the other, so the issue’s not relevant to their behaviour.

    That’s the reason why some issues ARE bipartisan -both parties recognise that they’re important but unpopular.

  27. Laming starts out well.

    https://www.smh.com.au/education/andrew-laming-this-is-what-i-really-meant-about-teachers-pay-20180504-p4zdcy.html

    When a local teacher told me she received a Kit-Kat from the principal as payment for a night of parent-teacher interviews, I’d had a gutful. Like stealing free grapes at the supermarket, we have taken for granted the hours that teachers do on top of the 5.5 hours a day that they are paid. Teaching is Australia’s most poorly paid profession and it’s at the heart of why Australian school outcomes are in trouble.

    Teacher salaries peak less than nine years after graduation. Their working days are impossibly cluttered. Irrelevant tasks like playground and bus duty are stacked on top of social work and behavioural management, simply to avoid Australia having to pay others to fill those roles.
    Teachers haul their unfinished work home, killing their personal lives and wiping out time for postgraduate education that should lead to promotion and pay rises. Long after nursing reformed their promotional and professional structures to survive against medicine and allied health, teaching remains where it was nearly a century ago.

    My call to pay teachers for every hour they work was misrepresented by vested interests as an attack on the profession. It wasn’t. Much of the magic of teaching lies where it is least expected: quiet counsel under a tree, the excursions that open minds and the extra-curricular pursuits. I want teachers paid for these additional hours, including overtime, because what isn’t paid is ultimately taken for granted.

    Then you get to this bit:

    First we must offer teachers the chance to go home like the rest of us and switch off. Second, the bulk of lesson planning needs to shift out of term time, even if teachers are on-site over school holidays. That is when the pupil-free days should occur.

    The school holidays are there for a reason. They enable teachers to regain their peace of mind, to regroup and refresh ready for the onslaught next term or next year.

    When I taught in Canada, I was initially paid by the month, but at the rate for ten months of the year. When I realised after a couple of months that there was going to be a shortfall come summer, an experienced teacher told me to talk to the office, and get them to pay me on a 12 month basis, rather than over the ten months of the school year.

    This is what most critics of teacher holidays do not understand. Full time teachers are paid for the hours they work during term time (well, not really, but you know what I mean) and not for the hours they don’t work during the holidays.

    All that happens is that the pay for actual teaching time gets spread over 12 months, in circa 26 equal fortnightly instalments.

  28. …of course Labor could be a Tony Abbott and put populism over good policy, but then – like Abbott – they’d be stuck with having to either deliver it when in government or breaking promises. Much better to make realistic promises you have a good chance of delivering than advocating positions you don’t believe and couldn’t deliver on if you did.

  29. @Darn

    You might be disappointed, I really believe the Turnbull government will rescue a victory (very likely a minority government) out the jaws of defeat. If the Liberals win the Perth by-election, I will be proved right.

  30. @zoomster

    I am not arguing Labor needs to be populist like Tony Abbott was, Labor has pretty soild policies as it is. However adopting say a cut to the immigration rate of 100,000 is a no brainier. Since it would greatly benefit existing and potential Labor voters. It would weave a narrative which would be very hard for the Coalition to tear apart.

    Plus I am expecting the mother of scare campaigns from the Coalition, particularly about superannuation and negative gearing.

  31. don

    The NSW school I used to teach at had a poster in the staffroom, which had a calculation showing how the extra hours a teacher works during term time converted into RDOs. Surprise, surprise – if you factor in RDOs foregone (because schools don’t work like that) and four weeks’ annual leave, teachers were being dudded…

  32. Jay says:
    Friday, May 4, 2018 at 7:48 pm
    @Darn

    You might be disappointed, I really believe the Turnbull government will rescue a victory (very likely a minority government) out the jaws of defeat. If the Liberals win the Perth by-election, I will be proved right.

    And you base that on what data? Your gut feeling? The entrails of a chicken?

    If you were Antony Green, or William Bowe, I’d sit up and take notice.

    Since you are Jay, I am not so impressed.

  33. Jay

    ‘Really believing’ something doesn’t make it true. If it did, we’d all be riding unicorns.


  34. Jay says:
    Friday, May 4, 2018 at 7:48 pm
    ..
    If the Liberals win the Perth by-election, I will be proved right.

    As Perth has been held by Labor since 1983, the current polling and the appalling state the WA Liberals are in I would be surprised if the Liberals run a candidate

  35. @don

    Actually I have following the opinion polls, which have been showing a steady closing of the gap between Labor and the Coalition. If the Coalition delivers a well recevied budget that will no doubtly close even further.

    It believe it possible that the Coalition would at least form minority government off say a two party preferred result of 51-49 in Labor’s favour. For example; the Coalition won 80 seats versus Labor’s 67 at the 1998 Federal election based on that two party preferred result.

  36. @frednk

    Peter Brent from Mumble does not think that the Perth by-election will be as easy of a Labor win than you predict. He is of the opinion that Labor will win fairly comfortably in the coming election.

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