ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor

ReachTEL becomes the latest pollster to record movement in favour of the Coalition.

The latest monthly ReachTEL result for Sky News records Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 54-46 a month ago. The Coalition are up two on the primary vote to 36%, Labor is down one to 35%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are down one to 6%. On the forced response preferred prime minister question, Malcolm Turnbull now leads 54.5-45.5, out from 52.3-47.7 last time.

Stay tuned for a post on the by-election that now looms in the seat of Perth, following Tim Hammond’s surprise retirement announcement.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

953 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Boerwar says:
    Friday, May 4, 2018 at 4:12 pm

    …”What on earth are you talking about? Labour gained just 24 out of seats out of 4371 seats and you manage to turn that into a 34% victory for Corbyn!”…

    Which begs the question, why does a country the size of a pinhead need 4371 local government jurisdictions?
    They would have to fight over whose turn it was to patch up the most recent pothole.

  2. When parliament resumes we’ll be introducing our bill to end live sheep exports. If the Labor Party are good to their word, they’ll support that bill. pic.twitter.com/nM6sBe6VLy— Richard Di Natale (@RichardDiNatale) May 3, 2018

    Yet again (and again) Di Natale attacks Labor but fails to even mention the LNP.

  3. ‘Libertarian Unionist says:
    Friday, May 4, 2018 at 4:16 pm

    Dartmoor: a grand old-growth forest totally destroyed by humans.

    To be fair, that description fits most of Europe.’

    To be totally fair, calling Dartmoor a national park is as ludicrous as calling Australia’s cotton paddocks a national park.

    99% of the veg cover is unnatural and the faunal assemblage, ditto. Rather than extolling this wondrous situation they should give some thought to a massive recovery program. There would be a cultural collateral damage item: Wuthering Heights.

  4. Ref Bushfire Bill and Vulnerabilities.
    Probably referenced many times.

    US Intel: Russian diplomats have been fanning out across the US looking for infrastructure vulnerabilities

    http://www.businessinsider.com/russian-diplomats-found-looking-for-us-infrastructure-vulnerabilities-2017-6?IR=T

    Now to a matter more serious.

    My mowing program has been comprehensively curtailed owing to social pressure.

    The lady across the road thought that I may have been having some type of “on the knees” religious experience.
    I carefully explained that I was on my knees, digging out horrible little weeds, which could easily be taken for a more than usually demented form of prayer. She (lady from over the road) then pointed out the mass of bindii growing where the local council had spread soil subsequent to building the concrete footpath along the street.

    So, the three times a week mowing program has been disrupted as I go about the bindii eradication program which consists of burning, digging and spraying.

    No mowing for a week. How will I manage ❓

    Question ❓

    Where is this pool from whence the oft referenced company directors are drawn ❓

    Could someone not be hired to keep poking them back down under the surface ❓ 😵 😲

  5. From the Age

    The Prime Minister has commissioned a review of the federal bureaucracy that may lead to the biggest overhaul in more than 40 years.

    CSIRO chairman and former Telstra boss David Thodey will lead the independent inquiry, which the Coalition government has given broad terms of reference that could allow it to recommend an entirely new structure and legislation to govern the Australian Public Service

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/turnbull-unveils-independent-review-of-federal-bureaucracy-20180504-p4zdf3.html

  6. Even the rusted on greens must be questioning the green strategy of continually attacking Labor.
    After Batman they’d have to be thick to keep going down that path.

  7. I admire people who do charitable things. Suffering among family members can motivate people.

    But this is quite separate from whether they are also part of a rapacious gang of pirates preying upon our nation.

  8. VP

    ‘After Batman they’d have to be thick…’
    True, true. But how about during and before Batman as well?

  9. I carefully explained that I was on my knees, digging out horrible little weeds…

    Naked gardening?

  10. BB is correctomundo. There are dozens of ridiculously easy major disruptors.

    Buy six old trucks that just go @, say, $1000 a pop. Drive them onto Sydney Harbour Bridge at peak hour using one lane per truck. Stop them mid-bridge along the same line so that nothing can drive past them. Put on the handbrake. Lock the doors, throw the keys into the Harbour and saunter back through the mother of all traffic mayhems. No violence. No-one gets killed or injured. Several hundred thousand people and thousands of businesses are directly affected.

  11. Boerwar says:
    Friday, May 4, 2018 at 4:27 pm

    …”That is the number of seats, not the number of councils”…

    Ah, sorry.
    That is still one councillor per few square miles.
    They must all do valuable and constructive work.

  12. KayJay @ #807 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 1:27 pm

    Ref Bushfire Bill and Vulnerabilities.
    Probably referenced many times.

    US Intel: Russian diplomats have been fanning out across the US looking for infrastructure vulnerabilities

    http://www.businessinsider.com/russian-diplomats-found-looking-for-us-infrastructure-vulnerabilities-2017-6?IR=T

    Now to a matter more serious.

    My mowing program has been comprehensively curtailed owing to social pressure.

    The lady across the road thought that I may have been having some type of “on the knees” religious experience.
    I carefully explained that I was on my knees, digging out horrible little weeds, which could easily be taken for a more than usually demented form of prayer. She (lady from over the road) then pointed out the mass of bindii growing where the local council had spread soil subsequent to building the concrete footpath along the street.

    So, the three times a week mowing program has been disrupted as I go about the bindii eradication program which consists of burning, digging and spraying.

    No mowing for a week. How will I manage ❓

    Question

    Where is this pool from whence the oft reference company directors are drawn ❓

    Could someone not be hired to keep poking them under the surface ❓ 😵 😲

    Call doG!

    I hear a lightening strike works well! 🙂

  13. It rather looks as if there will be another major push to reduce the size of the APS tasks, to outsource the Feds to the states, the private sector, and to National Party seats.

    The snouters will already be snuffling about.

  14. I wonder if they are in fact “disaster” testing the systems. Semi planned outages ie see what happens If!!!! – can we cope etc

  15. laughtong

    What odds that ‘outsourcing’ to the private sector will be the cure of all that ails the Public Service ?

  16. Absence of Empathy @ #816 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 4:39 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Friday, May 4, 2018 at 4:27 pm

    …”That is the number of seats, not the number of councils”…

    Ah, sorry.
    That is still one councillor per few square miles.
    They must all do valuable and constructive work.

    Well I think they do run more programs than our councils – especially public housing. I have a feeling they are also involved in schools.

  17. ‘The cut initially caused problems for mobile voice calls in NSW, Victoria, South Australia and Queensland, but the main impact throughout the morning was felt by Triple 0.

    Problems with Triple 0 calls were experienced in NSW, Victoria and Western Australia, the telco said.’

    What WA?

    Definitely suss!

  18. Boerwar says:
    Friday, May 4, 2018 at 4:46 pm

    …”I suspect that answer lies in population densities and the size of economic activity”…


    Yup.
    More people, equals more cars, equals more potholes.

  19. Given we have 547 local councils in Australia I suspect Australia would actually have more than 4371 elected councillors.

  20. I thank the horrible member for his question.

    Ha!

    I always disliked the phrase ‘bumping uglies’.

    I was referring to GG’s post yesterday about World Naked Gardening Day. And I believe extracting bindii would not be a pleasant activity naked.

    But I thank the clothed member for his post as I had forgotten all about the pain of bindi-eye since moving from the delights of the Central Coast.

  21. Barney in Go Dau (Block)
    Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 4:39 pm
    Comment #817

    Call doG!

    I hear a lightening strike works well!

    A thousand and twenty eight pardons Monsieur Barney in Go Dau – is the lightning to be directed to the dead pool of directors or to the bindii ❓.

    Dead Pool my clever (my opinion only) reference to Dirty Harry movies.

    Probably need more than a forty four magnum to clean out the various boards.

    Note to self – eradicate all thoughts of violence. 😜

  22. Instead of attacking Labor on live exports Di Natale should be wooing some Tory MPs to cross the floor in the lower house if he wants his bill to pass. Last time I looked Labor plus Green didn’t add up to 76.

    Only a Labor government will end live sheep exports and this week Shorten and Fitzgibbon have committed to do that but, sadly, it won’t be at the stroke of a pen.

    In the meantime look for the WA Labor Government to step up the pressure on exporters to lift their game.

  23. poroti @ #821 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 4:42 pm

    laughtong

    What odds that ‘outsourcing’ to the private sector will be the cure of all that ails the Public Service ?

    As a former Public Servant in a variety of organizations including CSIRO, the Sports Commision, Centrelink and FaHCSIA the APS as it was, has been largely destroyed already. Quite possible that outsourcing or moves to Nationals electorates will be recommended.

    However things could hardly get worse. 3 months to get a new NDIS claim looked at. Probably 9 weeks to get Centrelink to assess a Carer payment – if you are lucky enough to have completed the form correctly. Environment dept. doesn’t have the staff and losing more, to monitor endangered species.

  24. There are many ways to cripple Australia without anyone getting hurt.

    Release fire ants into the coal fields, get some foot and mouth bugs (or Anthrax as a substitute) and release into the herds and flocks. Newcastle disease into chooks. Black spot into the bananas, release goats into the outback…. The list is endless.

  25. Boerwar @ #794 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 4:12 pm

    What on earth are you talking about?

    Maths.

    Labour gained just 24 out of seats out of 4371 seats

    And the Cons gained only 7 of 4371 seats. The denominator is the same in both cases, so it can be ignored. All we’re comparing is 7 and 24. And 24 is ~340% of 7. In relative terms, Labor has outperformed the Cons by +240% (so far).

    I use relative terms, because that’s the most useful way of comparing two things. Neither side gained much of anything in absolute terms, however Labour has still done better than its opponent(s).

    and you manage to turn that into a 34% victory for Corbyn!

    You’re right, the original +340% number was wrong. It should have been +240%. As in “Labor matched the Cons’ performance, and then delivered an additional 240% of embarrassing drubbing on top of it”.

  26. Absence

    I just checked

    UK councils run a lot of functions we give to states police, fire, transport,social services, housing, educations .

  27. The Greens know no shame. None. It must be genetic.

    Caroline Lucas, leader of the UK Greens, has just announced amazingly yuuuuuge, record fantastic results for the Greens. They are winning ‘everywhere’ according to Ms Lucas. This was after the Greens increased their seats by 6 to 22. The Greens are now one of the ‘big four’ parties according to Ms Lucas.

    Yeah. Labour: 1445, Reactionaries 874, Lib Dems 326, Other 98, Greens 22.

    She may have done au pair work on a yuuuuuge wage over near the Otways.

  28. Simon² Katich® (Block)
    Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 4:51 pm
    Comment #827

    Yes indeedy sirrah. I noted the Naked Gardener “stuff” yesterday.

    Toodles. 😇

  29. ar

    I was talking about Labour. Corbyn’s Labour gained 24 seats out of 4731 seats. You can wank on about how the Lib Dems gained double that, but that is not the point. Neither is it the point that Greens increased their seats by a whopping 27%!

    The point you are avoiding is that Corbyn failed to lead Labour to significant gains in seats BUT succeeded in leading Labour to a net loss in the number of councils it controls.

  30. LU
    I agree. I have tried several times to read the book but find it ridiculous. IMO most of the main characters would have improved their behaviour with a jolly good spanking.

  31. The Lib Dems should be happy with the result. And the Others who gained four times as many seats as that magnificent bunch of bravido braggarts, the Greens.

    The Conservatives are going to be reasonably happy that they did not get a pizzling on the seat tally and picked up some councils to boot.

    Labour being happy about this outcome, a net gain of less than 30 on the Tories, and the loss of control over several major councils, then they deserve what is surely going to happen to them at the next General Election.

  32. From the Beeb’s feed:

    ‘Labour’s group leader in Barnet has told BBC Radio London that antisemitism played “the biggest part” in Labour’s “defeat”.

    Barry John Rawlings said the Labour leadership was too late in taking action.

    “If it had of happened a couple of years ago, Barnet would now be a Labour council,” he said.

    The Conservatives have taken Barnet, which had been a no overall control council. ‘

  33. Hmmm.

    I don’t see that there is many lessons or takeouts from the local governemnt elections in the UK for the forecoming national election, other than discerning whether there have been some emerging voting trends. If the local government elections were actually particularly relevant then ‘The Wrong Miliband Brother’ would have won the GE in 2015 with about 450 seats. That didn’t happen. Obviously.

    Regrettably in counting overnight I don’t see a trend back to Labour in regions containing the seats it needs to win at the next GE. Quite the opposite. Alas.

  34. daretotread. says:
    Friday, May 4, 2018 at 4:54 pm

    …”I just checked
    UK councils run a lot of functions we give to states police, fire, transport,social services, housing, educations”…


    That’s too much stuff.
    They should stick to fixing potholes and corrupted property speculation.

  35. Turns out that the ‘smoke haze caused by logging coupe burns’ is based on % of fires burning. There are currently more logging coupes being burnt than fuel reduction burns, so the conclusion reached is that the smoke comes from logging coupes.

    This ignores, of course, the fact that a logging coupe is typically less than 100 hectares, whereas a fuel reduction burn can cover (as two currently burning in my area do) over 2000 hectares.

    So lots of little fires compared to several big ones.

  36. PeeBee @ #24634 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 4:52 pm

    There are many ways to cripple Australia without anyone getting hurt.

    Release fire ants into the coal fields, get some foot and mouth bugs (or Anthrax as a substitute) and release into the herds and flocks. Newcastle disease into chooks. Black spot into the bananas, release goats into the outback…. The list is endless.

    Um. All of these biological events have occurred without bringing Australia to a standstill – including the aphthovirus and the anthrax, which is still extant in the soil of western NSW.

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