The latest monthly ReachTEL result for Sky News records Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 54-46 a month ago. The Coalition are up two on the primary vote to 36%, Labor is down one to 35%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are down one to 6%. On the forced response preferred prime minister question, Malcolm Turnbull now leads 54.5-45.5, out from 52.3-47.7 last time.
Stay tuned for a post on the by-election that now looms in the seat of Perth, following Tim Hammond’s surprise retirement announcement.
I also should add. I think Labor should learn the lesson from Abbott.
You can win elections by being a wrecker. As Labor is accused of being a wrecker by the LNP and media supporters Labor does not win by appeasement of those right wing attacks.
It gets its strongest support when it stands up to those attacks. See Union campaign on wages.
Sally McManus has got similar attacks to Corbyn. Yet living wages will be a big help to winning Labor Government.
The difference is Mr Shorten is campaigning well. He has been good tactically.
Being LNP lite does not end well for Labor.
Same goes for Labour in the UK.
Go back and look at that Fairfax Ipsos survey. Despite the crap the media pushes out this country is not a right wing country. The voters given the chance will vote for fair and equality.
The Marriage Survey on Same Sex proved this in spades.
Labor has to be an alternative government. A strong alternative not a weak pale imitation of the right.
So be centre left and as Mr Shorten says don’t fall for the some in the media telling us otherwise.
This legislation has finally passed into law in Queensland. We’ll see now whether Canavan/Turnbull will proceed to mount a threatened High Court challenge, claiming the law infringes Indigenous rights in FNQ.
Libertarian Unionist @ #594 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 11:16 am
Using the BBC link:
http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-43543775?ns_linkname=news_central&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_politics&ns_mchannel=social
Now has 56/150 reporting. Lab/LD/GRN +9, Con/UKIP -16. Because I deem those to be appropriate ideological groupings.
Speaking of Mr Shorten
Here is him doing a presser promoting trains.
That is good policy. Australian Made.
Where is he speaking?
Queensland people know the disaster of the Bombardier trains made in India that Newman ordered.
Voice Endeavour says:
Friday, May 4, 2018 at 11:25 am
The nationalist/xenophobic working class vote has been extracted from Labour and transferred to the Tories via UKIP. The Tories are the empowered flag-carriers for reactionary politics and Labour are now tagging along behind them.
The aristocrats have won.
a r says:
Friday, May 4, 2018 at 11:28 am
Libertarian Unionist @ #594 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 11:16 am
I don’t know what figures you are looking at AR
Using the BBC link:
http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-43543775?ns_linkname=news_central&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_politics&ns_mchannel=social
Now has 56/150 reporting. Lab/LD/GRN +9, Con/UKIP -16. Because I deem those to be appropriate ideological groupings.
You can deem it any way you like. The anti-Labour plurality is growing.
None of the London Councils have come in yet, so I think it’s a bit early to be saying Labor’s f*#cked.
Citizen
Mr Shorten is speaking in Melbourne.
NSW is the biggie with Foreign Trains. Newcastle snubbed in favour of Korea and resulting trains not fitting in tunnels
briefly @ #607 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 11:34 am
I’m okay with that. The anti-Right plurality is also growing. Which means that overall, so is the Left.
‘G
I think you should run for office and show the current bunch of amateurs in Labor how it is done.’
Thank you but I disagree with both parts of your suggestion.
The professionalism, policy depth, and degree to which shadow spokespersons are across their briefs in Australian Labor leaves little to be done in those spheres. Ditto Labor’s skills and dedication when it comes to managing campaigns. Add to that and the the determined way in which real internal tensions are resolved and/or contained and there is little I would either change or add beyond doing HTVs out in the bush for Mike Kelly.
OTOH, UK Labour is a rolling farce which is denying Britons a real choice on Leave or Remain.
Guytaur – powerful the cognitive dissonance is within you, padwan.
G
The judgement about whether it is f*cked depends on your threshold test. Mine is that Labour would make serious and significant gains across the board. Standing still in Opposition is a FAIL. Going backwards is a Yuuuge FAIL.
a r @ #611 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 8:39 am
And the Lib Dems I think will have learnt never to side with the Tories again.
They’re very lucky they still exist after their major brain fade in that area! 🙂
It’s slowly shifting more the left’s way, presumably as the booths reporting are changing from rural to town/city. Trafford (the rich part of Manchester Council has gone to Labour.
It’s now +14, -20 for left vs right.
Labour are down to -3, whereas earlier they were down considerably and it was the Lib Dems making gains on the left.
In the earlier counting, it was -3 vs -7
62/150 councils. Left +14, Right -20.
BW
I just said Labor is doing well tactically and policy wise in Australia. Why? I gave the example of being strong on equality asa narrative and cited the living wage campaign as my example.
I did not say Labor is unprofessional and is being LNP lite. In fact I was making the point Labor is doing well because it is being a strong opposition.
Good polices presented early with no fear of the right wing attack dogs.
Evidence is showing they are the correct policies.
My point is Labor gets into trouble when they try and be LNP lite.
it doesn’t matter what Labor says on refugees the LNP and some media will always say Labor is for people smugglers for being opposed to indefinite detention.
Just like they say Labor is anti business because its standing up for workers.
Centre left is how I described Labor as where it should be. Not the far left.
I’ve never been a fan of Corbyn, but this is a bit of an overreaction.
The Tories are doing well off the UKIP collapse, but it’s not a 1:1 swap. Given how little of the SE and London is in yet and Labour is only down a net of 2 council seats right now… this is hardly something that can be linked to a Corbyn-based vote collapse.
I think the early results in the UK Council elections will create large rumblings across Pollbludger.
Or that could just be flatulence due to all y’alls low fibre diets.
+17, -23
More detailed than the left vs right count.
The Conservative seats gained has started to drop in the past 10-15 minutes. Until very recently, the right’s seat swing was getting worse, but the Conservatives’ swing was improving (UKIP were losing seats). Now, it’s the Conservatives that are losing seats.
Additionally, Labour are starting to gain seats now (again, past 15 minutes). Whereas previously it was small losses to Labor balanced by larger gains for the Lib Dems.
Both of these trends, if they continue, bode well for the General Election. Even though the left has gained seats at the right’s expense, their vote is becoming more even between the three parties, while the right’s is becoming less even, which would benefit the Conservatives in the GE due to first past the post and the GE having larger ‘electorates’
Simon² Katich® @ #620 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 8:50 am
I’m not big on flatulence here.
The states of matter can be a very transient thing! 🙂
…and now Labour is starting to gain seats.
Boerwar
I agree with you. In the last few minutes Labour is now +2 compared to the -11 at the start of the hour. What I’m saying is that you’re all making assumptions using partial (and skewed) data. The cities haven’t reported yet.
J341983:
“I’ve never been a fan of Corbyn, but this is a bit of an overreaction.
The Tories are doing well off the UKIP collapse, but it’s not a 1:1 swap. Given how little of the SE and London is in yet and Labour is only down a net of 2 council seats right now… this is hardly something that can be linked to a Corbyn-based vote collapse.”
My criticism transcends the ‘who gives a fuck’ local government results. After all, even when debating the meaning of swings and exactly who has picked up on the UKIP collapse labour looks set to retain a sizeable plurality of council seats and control of councils.
My point focuses on the soft underbelly of UK Labour – the total collapse of its working class and lower middle class base in the midlands, the north of England and Scotland. I am only interested in seeing whether there is any trend in the local governemnt elections towards labour in those areas. There is zilch. Zip. Nadda. That is not an encouraging sign nationally going forward towards the next general election because there are only so many Kensingtons that Labour can pick up and nowhere near enough to counterbalance the 100 odd seats it lost since 2001 in its true heartland.
UK Locals
Labour now in +ve territory for the night, winning 665 of 1,321 seats so far (+2)
Con 411 (+46) and UKIP 2 (-77)
LDem 173 (+20)
Green 15 (+4)
Other 55 (+5)
Approx 3,200 still to come including all 1,600 in London
Gareth
Exactly why I have refrained from saying Labour is doing badly.
I have only said Labour is losing in leave areas as mentioned.
Edit: To be fair even Andrew Earlwood is talking about Conservative voting areas that once were Labour voting areas.
citizen @ #518 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 8:40 am
Sections of the CWA used to actually be aligned with the Communist Party and sent delegates to Communist conferences!
I heard about this on the radio when a woman was being interviewed about her book which I think was about Fred Patterson, the only Communist ever elected to an Australian Parliament. He was elected to the Qld Parliament from a Townsville electorate at a time when the Communist Party had a strong membership and branches of the CWA actually sent delegates.
Queensland Deep North of all places! Incredible.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/icac-lifts-suppression-order-on-peta-credlin-and-paul-nicolaou-emails-20140908-10dr7v.html
Jay @ #519 Friday, May 4th, 2018 – 8:46 am
Yes, contrary to all available evidence.
Labour kicking arse: its own.
Well, having lived in the UK during the Con-LD coalition, and having seen the destruction of the NHS up close, I would not group the Lib Dems with Labour.
Lib Dems gains are not gains for the labour movement. LD are Whigs at best and shy Tories at worst.
It’s funny to see that the Liberal Party UK is still a going (if minor) concern.
If, against a demoralized, divided and inept Tory Government, UK Labour makes serious across-the-board gains, they will have done exactly what you would expect them to do: succeed and well done to them.
If there is a more or less status quo outcome across the land with dribbles of gains and losses here and there, then UK Labour will have failed and Corbyn will have some (more) questions to answer on Brexit.
Being Corbyn, he will most likely continue to present as the Great Vacillator on the most important issue facing the UK for the first half of this Century.
You need ID to vote in the UK? Is that all elections or just COuncil?
G
If you want to see a minor concern in action in the UK, have a look at the Greens vote.
SimonK above
There has been a trial of photo ID in a handful of areas
I’ve got to agree with BW, briefly and Andrew_E on these results.
Labour should be kicking goals all over the UK. Why are they not?
E.g., Southampton, hardly a bastion of wealth and privilege, has just elected 8 Lab to 7 Cons councillors. Yes, it is a Labour hold, but FFS!
BW
Greens are a joke in both US and UK. Common factor. Bad First past the Post voting systems.
Denies diversity of voices. Leads to extremes. Add voluntary voting and its appalling how unrepresentative it is.
If the Leave Referendum had been held in Australia It would have lost. Thats on a simple majority vote not our level of all the states etc for referendums.
.@billshortenmp: Australia is a railway nation. It’s estimated that within the next 20 years, there’s $100bn in expenditure to be outlaid on Australian railways and I want to see the lion share of this work go to Australian manufacturing
MORE: https://bit.ly/2BuFqi1 #SkyLiveNow https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/992226429839396865/video/1
Boerwar – Corbyn’s real issue with Europe is that the Soviets never quite managed to get their T72s across the Rhine. If they had he’d be a very solid ‘pro Europe’ remainer…
Not all Queensland political traditions are socially conservative:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1894_Australian_shearers%27_strike
(Note reference to Waltzing Matilda).
G
‘Greens are a joke’
Never a truer word spoken, Guytaur.
I dips me lid at your perspicacity.
BW
Ah another Newscorpse style cherry pick quote by you.
First past the post voting is bad and unrepresentative was the point I was making
AE
LOLZ.
I see that Di Natale has caught the Corbyn bug and wants to renationalize the banks’ mortgage lending business.
Where Di Natale is going to find the $1.7 trillion to capitalize the thing will no doubt be made as clear as an au pair’s wage before the next election.
g
What? Resiling already?
BW
You really do well at pushing the Murdoch propaganda line.
I am reposting as I think this is an important issue for the upcoming election.
guytaur says:
Friday, May 4, 2018 at 12:06 pm
Previously suppressed emails before a corruption inquiry raise serious concerns about a major donor to the Liberal Party being rewarded with extraordinary access to senior party figures.
The emails are from the former chief fund-raiser of the NSW Liberal Party Paul Nicolau to Peta Credlin, one of the most powerful figures in the federal government.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/icac-lifts-suppression-order-on-peta-credlin-and-paul-nicolaou-emails-20140908-10dr7v.html
Another bloke with questions to answer:
If he hasn’t turned it around in 9 months he’s gooooooone.
Thanks Ray (UK).