Federal preselection round-up

A round-up of recent federal preselection news, as the Prime Minister asks his party’s state branches to get a move on.

With the fortnightly cycles of Newspoll and Essential Research in sync for the time being, we would appear to be in another off week for federal polling (although ReachTEL are about due to come through, perhaps at the end of the week). However, there is a fair bit of preselection news to report, with Malcolm Turnbull having told the state party branches to get candidates in place sooner rather than later. That might appear to suggest he at least wishes to keep his options open for an early election, although betting markets rate that a long shot, with Ladbrokes offering $1.14 on an election next year and only $5 for this year.

• With the creation of a third seat in the Australian Capital Territory, the Canberra Times reports the member for Canberra, Gai Brodtmann, will contest the seat of Bean – new in theory, but in reality the seat that corresponds most closely with her existing seat – while Andrew Leigh will remain in Fenner. The ACT Chief Minister, Andrew Barr, said he contemplated running in the Canberra electorate “maybe for a moment”. The other name mentioned is Kel Watt, “a member of ACT Labor’s right faction and lobbyist for the Canberra Greyhound Racing”.

• The Courier-Mail reported a fortnight ago that Jane Prentice, Liberal National Party member for the Brisbane seat of Ryan, is likely to lose preselection to Julian Simmonds, a Brisbane councillor and former staffer to both Prentice and her predecessor, Michael Johnson. Despite Prentice being a moderate and a Turnbull supporter, the move against her has reportedly “outraged” Campbell Newman.

• Elections for administrative positions in the Victorian Liberal Party have seen Michael Kroger easily face down a challenge to his position as president, and conservative young turk Marcus Bastiaan much strengthened, including through his own election to a vice-president position. The Australian reports Bastiaan is “largely regarded as Mr Kroger’s numbers man”, but his use of his new influence to cancel an early Senate preselection process suggests the situation may be more complex than that. According to James Campbell of the Herald Sun, the preselections had been initiated at the behest of Kroger, consistent with Malcolm Turnbull’s aforementioned call for them to be handled expeditiously. The report further says Bastiaan’s determination to delay proceedings suggests a threat to James Patterson or Jane Hume, the two Senators who will face re-election at the next election. However, a report by Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review suggest the bigger threat from the conservative ascendancy is likely to be faced by factional moderates in the state parliament.

• The Toowoomba Chronicle reports John McVeigh, the Liberal National Party member for Groom, has easily seen off a preselection challenge by Isaac Moody, business manager of Gabbinbar Homestead. Moody accused McVeigh of having “betrayed” his constituents by voting yes in the same-sex marriage plebiscite (49.2% of those constituents did the same).

• The Clarence Valley Daily Examiner reports Labor’s preselection for the north coast New South Wales seat of Page will be contested by Isaac Smith, the mayor of Lismore, and Patrick Deegan, who works for a domestic violence support service. Page has been held for the Nationals since 2013 by Kevin Hogan, whose margin after the 2016 election was 2.3%. Smith is backed by Janelle Saffin, who held the seat for Labor from 2007 to 2013 and is now the preselected candidate for the state seat of Lismore.

• The Townsville Bulletin reports that Ewen Jones, who lost the seat of Herbert to Labor’s Cathy O’Toole in 2016 by 37 votes, has again nominated for Liberal National Party preselection in the Townsville-based seat of Herbert.

• The Courier-Mail reported a fortnight ago that George Christensen might face a preselection challenge for his north Queensland seat of Dawson from Jason Costigan, member for the state seat of Whitsunday, but Costigan announced a few days later that he had chosen not to proceed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

907 comments on “Federal preselection round-up”

Comments Page 2 of 19
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  6. Craig Emerson
    ‏@DrCraigEmerson
    12h

    I spoke to two respected politicians today. Both said their offices were being inundated with people pleading to stop the live sheep export trade. They were not standard-form emails. Rather, people who care enough to express their own views in their own words. Stop the cruelty.

  8. The legacy most in need of undoing is Howard’s.

    Turnbull won’t have a legacy. He’s just continued Abbott’s policies.

  9. The flat-earthers appear to have a problem with large-scale visualisation…as if they really cannot deal with abstractions. They have learning difficulties.

  10. Turnbull’s legacy will be that of a man so willing to shed whatever principles he held in order to hold onto power

    Not good..

  11. This road funding announcement is good news for Adelaide but note the timing. The business case was submitted last year by the Weatherall government, not listed in the last IA priority project list, and only now approved and funded, AFTER the election. Why the delay??
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-01/gawler-river-torrens-federal-funds-flow-to-ease-adelaide-traffic/9712384

    IA has become little more than a political tool of government. We need a statutorily independent body to make infrastructure funding decisions.

  12. That’s my minuscule donation done until the next time. Hope everyone gives a little bit for the upkeep of the site and maybe Mr Bowe will have a bit left over for a few well earned scotches or bevie of choice.

  13. jenauthor says:
    Tuesday, May 1, 2018 at 10:07 am
    So now we have the 3rd presser in 3 hours by the govt … silly silly silly

    …clearly, they are campaigning now….trying to gain the attention of voters, maybe also trying to deflect from the RC news….

  14. Confessions @ #49 Tuesday, May 1st, 2018 – 9:55 am

    kayjay:

    I’ve never met a flat earther (that I know of) but can’t imagine having any patience for hearing their crap.

    What was worse – some time ago, a gentleman doing some painting next door told me that the Port Arthur Massacre never happened.

    I didn’t stay with him long enough to hear the truth.

    I agree with Briefly – flat earthers and similar have difficulty with learning and use weird superior knowledge compensation.

  15. Good Morning

    The Banking Royal Commission is doing real damage to the LNP election campaign.

    Every day the case for regulation and against deregulation as the LNP has as its core belief gets better and better as the calls for jail terms grow.

    The terms of the Commission are sure to be extended now as we are still in the what we knew part of the Commission.

    The Commissioner will want to extend the terms of reference. He has a credibility reputation to protect and like Costigan will pursue the case wherever it leads or know he will be damned as the whitewasher in chief.

    No judge wants that reputation.

    As such the Commission could well be holding hearings during the election campaign.

    The damage to the neo liberal agenda of small government no regulation is immense.
    Its time Labor. Its time. Seize the day.

    This will see the LNP out of government for decades as they struggle with the reality that neo liberalism small government no regulation is as dead as a dodo in this country now.

    The neo liberal fraternity are in the denial and anger stage with the BCA stumping up the money for its campaign.

    I am glad the unions have been planning their campaign for ages as I know the unions will win this one.

    Happy days indeed in politics for progressives as the damage of the neo liberals is exposed to voters for what it is. 🙂

  16. I remember there was an old guy flat earther being heckled by students as he spoke from a ladder he’d brought along at the St Lucia campus of Qld Uni in 1962.

    So they’ve been around a while.

  18. Briefly

    Rudd took the bullet but when May was the minister she kicked off the “hostile environment” policy . Not forgetting of course her “Go Home ‘ fleet of vehicles.

  20. Lizzie

    I know a few people in my office are regularly trying to get their colleagues to call the Dpt of Agriculture + the Minister + other politicians to end the live trade

  21. The other thing to think about is that the RC reports are due to be handed down in Sept and Feb… which is worse for the Govt election-wise, testimony and stories during the commission hearings or a full-fledged RC Report?

  24. poroti @ #67 Tuesday, May 1st, 2018 – 10:23 am

    Briefly

    Rudd took the bullet but when May was the minister she kicked off the “hostile environment” policy . Not forgetting of course her “Go Home ‘ fleet of vehicles.
    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Why did they use such a blurry photo of a handcuff for their van? It’s like the Home Office people take no pride in their border-fascism.

  26. ABC Melbourn@abcmelbourne

    #BREAKING: A Melbourne magistrate has committed Cardinal George Pell to stand trial on a historical sexual offence charge. The magistrate is part way through her ruling on whether there’s enough evidence to send Cardinal Pell to trial on multiple historical sexual offence charges

  27. “One of the “featured products” at the NRA annual meeting is a pistol that looks like a cellphone. What could go wrong?”

    Yeah? How about a go fund me page to buy one for Trump??

  29. The problem for the Tories’ mates in business is that they don’t “get” campaigning in the modern era.

    Raising a few million dollars and running an advertising campaign on TV and in newspapers just doesn’t cut it any more.

    Labor, the unions, people like GetUp etc have learned that it is far more effective to get boots on the ground and engage people face to face.

    The only people BCA members feel comfortable talking to are other BCA members and Tory politicians.

  31. phoenixRED @ #12 Tuesday, May 1st, 2018 – 7:54 am

    Trump Humiliates Himself By Claiming Fitness Freak Immigrants Are Climbing Over Border Wall

    During a joint press conference with the president of Nigeria, Trump went off on an immigrant rant and claimed that very physically fit immigrants are climbing over the border wall.

    Hey, be fair. You have to be more fit than Trump to move a ladder into place and then climb it. And Trump is in great shape. He has the best and hugest and most physical fitness of any President ever!

  33. KayJay @ #77 Tuesday, May 1st, 2018 – 10:29 am

    bemused @ #50 Tuesday, May 1st, 2018 – 9:57 am

    From BK

    Penny Wong says Labor will try and undo Abbott’s legacy on climate policy
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/01/penny-wong-says-labor-will-try-and-undo-abbotts-legacy-on-climate-policy

    GASP!!! shock, horror!!! Does Penny Wong really think ‘and’ is a verb or was she misquoted?

    We noticed and allowed for misquote. Will this usage become accepted through common usage?

    Well it should not unless and is to become a verb. Then what will replace and? Can it simultaneously be both a verb and a conjunction? That is just a descent into nonsense.

  34. One wonder if flat-Earthers ever had the experience of sitting in a train at a big station next to another train at the opposite platform. A train departs. For a couple of seconds it can be difficult to tell whether it’s yours or the other one. Something similar with the rotation of the Earth. How would it feel different if it was the Sun, Moon and stars moving, not the Earth?

    (My father would sometimes say “See the people in the other train? You’ll never see them again”),

  35. Steve777 @ #83 Tuesday, May 1st, 2018 – 10:41 am

    One wonder if flat-Earthers ever had the experience of sitting in a train at a big station next to another train at the opposite platform. A train departs. For a couple of seconds it can be difficult to tell whether it’s yours or the other one. Something similar with the rotation of the Earth. How would it feel different if it was the Sun, Moon and stars moving, not the Earth?

    (My father would sometimes say “See the people in the other train? You’ll never see them again”),

    I suspect there are a large number of self proclaimed ‘flat earthers’ who are just taking the piss.

  36. Try and

    OED
    Labels it as “a colloquialism”.

    Oxforddictionaries
    “The construction try and is grammatically odd…in that it cannot be inflected for tense ……………… For this reason try and is best regarded as a fixed idiom used only in its infinitive and imperative form.

    Merriam-Webster.
    “Almost all disparaging criticism of “try and” comes from American critics; British commentators have generally been tolerant. There appears to be no rational basis for hostility to the expression and no need to avoid it in appropriate surroundings.”

    https://www.dailywritingtips.com/try-to-vs-try-and/

  37. On Senator Wong

    Ignoring the obvious typo the firing of subs missed in the headline.

    Its good to remember Senator Wong has had the visceral personal experience of the results of the Equality of Marriage survey.

    This will be of great help in planning realistic strategy and tactics on climate instead of being snowed under by the hype of the media and the climate deniers.

  38. With regard to ‘try and’, I have given up.

    I never use it myself, but I have come to realise that resistance is futile.

  39. bemused:

    I suspect there are a large number of self proclaimed ‘flat earthers’ who are just taking the piss.

    I am not so sure. Assuming that the average punter is foolish is a sensible strategy.

  40. don

    I’m prepared to accept ‘try and’ as common in speech, but would never write it myself. The same goes for many other common mistakes (such as amount instead of number). 🙂

  42. There was an interesting segment on RN Breakfast this morning on Mutuals.

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/australians-should-reconsider-benefits-of-mutual-business-model/9713710
    Australians should reconsider benefits of mutual business model, industry lobby group says

    Twenty years ago, the embattled AMP Society was a non-profit life insurance company that was essentially owned by its customers.

    Then it demutualised and became a publicly listed company on the stock exchange with a prime focus on profits.

    Critics say that change in 1998 set AMP on a path that has led it directly into its current crisis — with three senior executives, including its chair Catherine Brenner, forced to stand down in the wake of shocking revelations at the banking royal commission.

    It’s also lead to a plunge in AMP’s share price.

    Melina Morrison is says that’s reason enough for Australians to now reconsider the benefits of placing their money, and their trust, in the mutual business model which still exists today in the form of financial co-operatives, credit unions and building societies.

    We used to have a whole lot of co-operative enterprises in fruit canning, vegetable processing, dairy industry etc.

    Where are they now?

    De-mutualised and then a long slide into foreign takeover and, in many cases, closure of plants, loss of local employment and farmers struggling to survive.

  44. Bemused

    I suspect there are a large number of self proclaimed ‘flat earthers’ who are just taking the piss.

    I have from time to time thought the same about some of the much maligned MSM journalists.

    If read from the viewpoint of “I come to bury Caesar, not to praise him” one could (with a lot of effort) see that a particular article was meeting fire with fire (or BS with more BS).

    Just a thought and I have no particular article or journalist in mind.

    Note to self. Go back to your mowing and then to your blow torch (thanks Lizzie ) eradication of creeping oxalis. 😎

  46. Um, it’s the journo’s summary of Wong’s speech, not a quote from Wong.

    That’s blindingly obvious without even reading Wong’s speech.

  48. poroti @ #85 Tuesday, May 1st, 2018 – 10:45 am

    Try and

    OED
    Labels it as “a colloquialism”.

    Oxforddictionaries
    “The construction try and is grammatically odd…in that it cannot be inflected for tense ……………… For this reason try and is best regarded as a fixed idiom used only in its infinitive and imperative form.

    Merriam-Webster.
    “Almost all disparaging criticism of “try and” comes from American critics; British commentators have generally been tolerant. There appears to be no rational basis for hostility to the expression and no need to avoid it in appropriate surroundings.”

    https://www.dailywritingtips.com/try-to-vs-try-and/

    Just a decline in standards of grammar.
    I blame the teachers! 😛
    Cue zoomster…

  49. Speaking of government overkill in the media, not only did we just get Dutton and Taylor, we haven’t even gotten to the Festival of the Bromance that we are going to have to endure when Emmanuel Macron and Turnbull come out of their talks behind closed doors.
    *sigh*

  50. KayJay @ #93 Tuesday, May 1st, 2018 – 10:56 am

    Bemused

    I suspect there are a large number of self proclaimed ‘flat earthers’ who are just taking the piss.

    I have from time to time thought the same about some of the much maligned MSM journalists.

    If read from the viewpoint of “I come to bury Caesar, not to praise him” one could (with a lot of effort) see that a particular article was meeting fire with fire (or BS with more BS).

    Just a thought and I have no particular article or journalist in mind.

    Note to self. Go back to your mowing and then to your blow torch (thanks Lizzie ) eradication of creeping oxalis. 😎

    Hey, I am doing more mowing lately.
    I got a cordless electric mower and they are just great.

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