Federal preselection round-up

A round-up of recent federal preselection news, as the Prime Minister asks his party’s state branches to get a move on.

With the fortnightly cycles of Newspoll and Essential Research in sync for the time being, we would appear to be in another off week for federal polling (although ReachTEL are about due to come through, perhaps at the end of the week). However, there is a fair bit of preselection news to report, with Malcolm Turnbull having told the state party branches to get candidates in place sooner rather than later. That might appear to suggest he at least wishes to keep his options open for an early election, although betting markets rate that a long shot, with Ladbrokes offering $1.14 on an election next year and only $5 for this year.

• With the creation of a third seat in the Australian Capital Territory, the Canberra Times reports the member for Canberra, Gai Brodtmann, will contest the seat of Bean – new in theory, but in reality the seat that corresponds most closely with her existing seat – while Andrew Leigh will remain in Fenner. The ACT Chief Minister, Andrew Barr, said he contemplated running in the Canberra electorate “maybe for a moment”. The other name mentioned is Kel Watt, “a member of ACT Labor’s right faction and lobbyist for the Canberra Greyhound Racing”.

• The Courier-Mail reported a fortnight ago that Jane Prentice, Liberal National Party member for the Brisbane seat of Ryan, is likely to lose preselection to Julian Simmonds, a Brisbane councillor and former staffer to both Prentice and her predecessor, Michael Johnson. Despite Prentice being a moderate and a Turnbull supporter, the move against her has reportedly “outraged” Campbell Newman.

• Elections for administrative positions in the Victorian Liberal Party have seen Michael Kroger easily face down a challenge to his position as president, and conservative young turk Marcus Bastiaan much strengthened, including through his own election to a vice-president position. The Australian reports Bastiaan is “largely regarded as Mr Kroger’s numbers man”, but his use of his new influence to cancel an early Senate preselection process suggests the situation may be more complex than that. According to James Campbell of the Herald Sun, the preselections had been initiated at the behest of Kroger, consistent with Malcolm Turnbull’s aforementioned call for them to be handled expeditiously. The report further says Bastiaan’s determination to delay proceedings suggests a threat to James Patterson or Jane Hume, the two Senators who will face re-election at the next election. However, a report by Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review suggest the bigger threat from the conservative ascendancy is likely to be faced by factional moderates in the state parliament.

• The Toowoomba Chronicle reports John McVeigh, the Liberal National Party member for Groom, has easily seen off a preselection challenge by Isaac Moody, business manager of Gabbinbar Homestead. Moody accused McVeigh of having “betrayed” his constituents by voting yes in the same-sex marriage plebiscite (49.2% of those constituents did the same).

• The Clarence Valley Daily Examiner reports Labor’s preselection for the north coast New South Wales seat of Page will be contested by Isaac Smith, the mayor of Lismore, and Patrick Deegan, who works for a domestic violence support service. Page has been held for the Nationals since 2013 by Kevin Hogan, whose margin after the 2016 election was 2.3%. Smith is backed by Janelle Saffin, who held the seat for Labor from 2007 to 2013 and is now the preselected candidate for the state seat of Lismore.

• The Townsville Bulletin reports that Ewen Jones, who lost the seat of Herbert to Labor’s Cathy O’Toole in 2016 by 37 votes, has again nominated for Liberal National Party preselection in the Townsville-based seat of Herbert.

• The Courier-Mail reported a fortnight ago that George Christensen might face a preselection challenge for his north Queensland seat of Dawson from Jason Costigan, member for the state seat of Whitsunday, but Costigan announced a few days later that he had chosen not to proceed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

907 comments on “Federal preselection round-up”

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  1. g
    Show me the money.
    The Greens have promised between $3 and $5 trillion in freebies over forward estimates.
    Costings provided: zip.

  2. BW

    After the LNP show the money. They are the profligate spending like drunken sailors party.

    Neo Liberalism has failed. Fear and pork barrelling is all they have left.

  3. g
    Show me the money. No costings. No funding details. Just $3-$5 trillion in freebies.
    The Greens doing magic pudding.

  4. Before entering Parliament, Craig Kelly had a colourful history with his family furniture company..

    “Federal Liberal MP Craig Kelly is fighting allegations he was a de facto director of his family furniture company that is alleged to have traded while insolvent.

    Before entering federal Parliament in August 2010, the Member for Hughes worked as an “export manager” for the Chipping Norton-based firm, DV Kelly Pty Ltd, that attempted to make money by importing flat-pack furniture from Asia and onselling it to Harvey Norman.

    The firm, founded by his parents Lawrence and Raima Kelly in 1962, hit trouble in December when winding-up orders were issued by the tax office. It shut its doors in January owing creditors and staff more than $4 million. Administrators and liquidators Cor Cordis have been appointed to pick over the wreckage.

    While not listed as an official director of the family firm, Cor Cordis has raised the possibility that Kelly and his brother Jason may have acted as “de facto” directors, placing them at risk of prosecution under Australian law.‘

    https://www.smartcompany.com.au/business-advice/legal/questions-over-liberal-mp-s-family-business-collapse/

  5. Only the Greens would have the gall to claim that their policies are fully costed and then provide no costings for $3-$5 trillion in additional expenditure.

  6. zoomster @ #789 Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018 – 2:55 pm

    guytaur

    Except it was Paul Keating who re introduced fees. And it isn’t up front.

    I don’t disagree with you, but on the other hand (having gone through Uni during that period) I did see people who didn’t care if they failed because it didn’t cost them anything if they did. (I thought it was funny when friends of mine went into Maths exams and wrote out pi to 100 places; I’m not sure it was a good use of taxpayer dollars, however…)

    My sons are both at Uni (one’s on a break) at present. Neither seem too phased by HECS. One of them is talking of taking on extra debt, so he can study overseas. He doesn’t need to; he could cover the expense, but it actually (apparently) makes sense financially.

    Zoomster

    Perhaps you should reprise this discussion in 2-3 years when your sons have gained professional employment and are earning more than their school friends who did not go to uni, and who have saved enough for a deposit on a house.

    Thing is Zoomster your boys seem to be clever and hard working so they will get good jobs.

    My real concern is for those who are not particularly academically gifted – yes they can do it but they do not like it much nor are they going to be top of the class.

  7. BW

    I guess you have not seen the LNP magic money tree as the deficit balloons.

    At least with the Greens people would be helped along the way unlike with the Tories.

    Neo Liberalism is dead

  8. From above link:

    ‘Unemployment rate 2015 2016
    Bachelor degree or higher 3.4% 3.2%
    Advanced Diploma/Diploma 4.0% 4.4%
    Certificate III/IV 4.8% 4.6%
    Certificate I/II 13.9% 12.8%
    Without post-school qualification 8.7% 8.2%’

  9. BW

    You entered here to destroy the Greens. The Murdoch mission.

    All because I said hung parliaments made politicians more accountable to the voter.

    A post which only mentioned the Greens as their support makes a Labor government in Tasmania closer not further away.

    Your true colours are showing

  10. g
    Stop arsing around. Show me the money. Show me the Greens costings for renationalizing the banks (housing mortgage market around $1.7 trillion), free wages for every single adult aged between 18 and 104), free health for everyone, and free tertiary education.

  11. Zoomster

    I do. All those zombie budget measures. All those Senate Estimates. The government being in minority due to a hung Senate does make the politicians more accountable.

  12. Here are some more ideas for the Greens while they are doing their heavy policy thinking: free energy, free transport, free holidays, free water: for all.

  13. @BW – you are being childish.

    $X in costs over Y time period, counteracted by Z benefits over Y time period.

    Unless you’re going to report Y and Z, don’t report X.

  14. The employment minister, Michaelia Cash, was asked if Newstart’s $40 a day was “cruel” to people on unemployment benefits.

    “We focus very much on getting people off welfare and into work. The best form of welfare is a job,” she told reporters.

    “It is there to provide a basic safety net for those who are looking for work who are on welfare.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/02/newstart-embarrassingly-inadequate-and-history-will-judge-us-economist-says

  15. zoomster @ #812 Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018 – 12:19 pm

    From above link:

    ‘Unemployment rate 2015 2016
    Bachelor degree or higher 3.4% 3.2%
    Advanced Diploma/Diploma 4.0% 4.4%
    Certificate III/IV 4.8% 4.6%
    Certificate I/II 13.9% 12.8%
    Without post-school qualification 8.7% 8.2%’

    Yep, get a degree and you have a greater chance of having a job and you will on average earn significantly more, about 40%, than someone without a degree.

    By the way, what is a Certificate I/II?

    Seems to be as useful as tits on a bull!!! 🙂

  16. Wil Anderson
    ‏5 h
    Just got escorted out of the ABC lobby by security because the interview I was doing was too loud. Watch Gruen tonight, it might be the final episode if I’m not allowed back in the building

  17. guytaur

    Your post was about accountability. Whilst I am glad the Senate blocked many of these measures, I didn’t get the feeling that they did so because they were responding to pressure from voters.

  18. Barney

    Thats the result of the voters choice. I don’t like it but thats who the voters elected.

    I thought the Senate was better when it was the Greens and Democrats with the balance of power. That however is my political preference

    Even with the likes of Hanson in the Senate we still get more accountability from the politicians.

    Just think back to Work Choices for the comparison.

  19. Zoomster

    Your analysis is wrong. The reasons for those positions by the politicians was because they thought it was to their political advantage. Thats accountability to the voters.

  20. C@tmomma @ #761 Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018 – 2:17 pm

    I do. I think teaching is ‘superior’ to a whole host of jobs, because if done well it can have a positive effect in peoples’ lives.

    Wich doesn’t sound like what zoomster does:

    And I get $60 an hour as a casual teacher. I arrive, the work is given to me, I give it to the kids, I sit there and play on the laptop they provide to me free of charge, I put the work back in the teachers’ pigeonholes, I go home. And I don’t break out in skin rashes afterwards.

    No. I know a few casual teachers like that.

  21. guytaur @ #828 Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018 – 12:39 pm

    Barney

    Thats the result of the voters choice. I don’t like it but thats who the voters elected.

    I thought the Senate was better when it was the Greens and Democrats with the balance of power. That however is my political preference

    Even with the likes of Hanson in the Senate we still get more accountability from the politicians.

    Just think back to Work Choices for the comparison.

    No it’s not.

    How many of them campaigned on establishing the ACCC?

  22. Barney

    The ones that voted for the ACCC

    The votes are clear. The voters can look at that and make up their minds on it.

    Thats how politicians are accountable to voters.

    Its the whole point of our parliamentary democratic system.

  23. re: Gichuhi – as I said at the time I doubt she will have received any undertaking from the Libs about future election prospects.

    I don’t think her defection was about that, and if it was then she was/is a fool.

    She had no prospect of reelection as either an independent or a Cory, so she didn’t lose anything in that respect by joining the Libs.

    What I think she gained was having a (mostly) functional party support apparatus that could give her assistance in how the Senate works, what was happening, what she could put her hand up for, working with others on a more equal basis in committees etc.

  24. Yep, get a degree and you have a greater chance of having a job and you will on average earn significantly more, about 40%, than someone without a degree.

    Many years ago I was chatting to a project supervisor over a few beers in a Gladstone nightclub. I had just finished some work on the project he was supervising. We talked about what a person like me (with a 4 year degree and several further years to get professional qualifications) earns and when I told him he said…

    Mate! I pay lads more than that to push a wheelbarrow around the site

  25. Guytaur @ 2:36 pm
    Topic: corporate tax cuts
    I think Ms Proust is down playing the support for tax cuts in Senate.
    Why?
    Just before Senate went into recess last month, LNP was only short of only 2 votes exluding 2 Central Alliance Senators. After SA elections, they must have realised that there is very slim chance of them getting elected next time around.
    Hence, they could vote the in budget session in exchange for senior executive positions in a big company like Andrew Robb did with FTA. In fact I read a newspaper article where they were making favourable noices.

  26. Ven

    I agree with you on the tactics regarding the tax cuts. However I think the realisation is dawning that the government won’t get those two votes they need.

    Especially after Tim Storrer’s contribution.

  27. re: HECS – I think, as originally proposed, it was a perfectly decent proposal, and a workable, reasonable system – it mostly still is, although the Libs have squeezed it until it’s almost broken.

    I went through the initial HECS system and had a modest debt (even though I effectively took 6 years to do a 4 year degree) after I finished, which I paid off as quickly as I could although I didn’t need to (and yes, a strict financial benefit analysis would have seen me keep as much HECS debt as possible for as long as possible due to differential interest rates/ROI of alternatives, but that wasn’t the point – I wanted out of the debt and out of the impact of any future government’s whim as quickly as I could).

    I think the idea that both society and the individual benefit from university education (although university education is not suitable for everyone), so both society and the individual should contribute to that education is entirely reasonable.

    I think HECS having no entry requirements and legislated (and ideally unchanging) parameters for repayment, and it not being part of the finance industry means university is open to all without financial risk in any practical sense, and that is as it should be.

    I think having some cost on the student actually makes them value the experience more, and makes the people who are privileged enough to study at university treat it less frivolously. People often don’t value things they consider free. The cost shouldn’t be an impediment to their study – and HECS means it doesn’t currently – but the cost to the student shouldn’t be zero.

  28. zoomster @ #809 Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018 – 3:18 pm

    C@

    ..and we get back to data: 3% unemployment amongst post graduate students, compared to 8% for school leavers.

    As I keep saying, of course there are exceptions. But the data (which should trump anecdote every time) shows that you’re better off having some kind of degree.

    https://www.universitiesaustralia.edu.au/Media-and-Events/media-releases/Graduate-employment-strengthens–latest-data#.WulJj6SFOUk

    You’re almost being as misleading as a Liberal there! Using your own figures, and as I was referring to my son with a Cert IV, NOT a person who leaves school and doesn’t pursue any Further Education, compared to a person with a Batchelor’s Degree:

    Unemployment rate 2015 2016
    Bachelor degree or higher 3.4% 3.2%
    Advanced Diploma/Diploma 4.0% 4.4%
    Certificate III/IV 4.8% 4.6%

    Not as great a difference in the numbers compared with those who just leave school and go nowhere or only have a Cert 1 or 2. Plus, no Student Debt! Or only a puny one in comparison, and they are out into the workforce sooner.

  29. I call bullshit

    Gladstone. Pretty sure. One of those towns up there.

    It was out of town a little. All the cool people went there when the pubs closed. Maybe the locals didnt tell you?

  30. Guytaur @ 2:49 pm
    Topic: free education
    HECS was introduced by Hawke Labor government. The irony is that I think Joe Hockey batch was the last batch to get free uni education.

    And I agree with what Zoomster posted at 2:55 pm

  31. Libertarian Unionist @ #838 Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018 – 1:56 pm

    …a Gladstone nightclub…

    I call bullshit!

    I don’t. It would likely have been working on a construction project where the employee was working 12 hours a day, 13 days a fortnight on a 4&1 roster (or 5&1, or 6&1) and Simon Katich would have been doing 9 – 5, Monday to Friday.

    I’ve been responsible for payroll on large construction projects and such statements, while misleading, are literally true.

  32. Jackol

    Tell that to the public school kids.

    There is a reason we make education compulsory.

    Higher eduction should be free for the very exact same reasons.

    Limit the criteria on merit not wallet.

  33. The cost of a degree is never zero, because it means spending three or four years out of the workforce, or if studied part time it means six to eight years of hell juggling work and study.

  34. Not as great a difference in the numbers compared with those who just leave school and go nowhere or only have a Cert 1 or 2. Plus, no Student Debt! Or only a puny one in comparison, and they are out into the workforce sooner.

    Never underestimate the drawing power of a lottery. Some of these kids land awesomely high-paying jobs, often by chance or fortuitous circumstance. Yes, the small chance of entering the leisure class washes out in the averages, but you’ve got to be in it to win it.

  35. Ven @ #814 Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018 – 3:23 pm

    C@tmomma @ 2:26 pm
    “LOl”
    I don’t get it. Not amusing at all.

    No you didn’t did you? The amusing point was that, a Minister, Josh Frydenburg, who used to work for Deutsche Bank, has his Super NOT in a Private Financial Services provider Super Fund or a Self Managed Super Fund, but an Industry Super Fund, the bete noir, allegedly, of NeoLiberals!

  36. Support for universal access to health and education is strong in Australia with a new opinion poll showing nine in 10 voters think those services should be provided free of charge.
    The Ipsos survey, released days before the federal budget, also found eight in 10 Australians agree the rich should be “taxed more” to support the poor.
    The findings were part of a 28-nation survey that probed attitudes to socialist ideas in the 21st century.
    It showed half of Australian respondents (49 per cent) agreed that “socialist ideals are of great value for societal progress”. But the same share (49 per cent) said that socialism is a system of “political oppression, mass surveillance and state terror”.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/strong-support-for-free-health-education-and-for-taxing-rich-more-poll-20180502-p4zcsj.html?platform=hootsuite

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