Federal preselection round-up

A round-up of recent federal preselection news, as the Prime Minister asks his party’s state branches to get a move on.

With the fortnightly cycles of Newspoll and Essential Research in sync for the time being, we would appear to be in another off week for federal polling (although ReachTEL are about due to come through, perhaps at the end of the week). However, there is a fair bit of preselection news to report, with Malcolm Turnbull having told the state party branches to get candidates in place sooner rather than later. That might appear to suggest he at least wishes to keep his options open for an early election, although betting markets rate that a long shot, with Ladbrokes offering $1.14 on an election next year and only $5 for this year.

• With the creation of a third seat in the Australian Capital Territory, the Canberra Times reports the member for Canberra, Gai Brodtmann, will contest the seat of Bean – new in theory, but in reality the seat that corresponds most closely with her existing seat – while Andrew Leigh will remain in Fenner. The ACT Chief Minister, Andrew Barr, said he contemplated running in the Canberra electorate “maybe for a moment”. The other name mentioned is Kel Watt, “a member of ACT Labor’s right faction and lobbyist for the Canberra Greyhound Racing”.

• The Courier-Mail reported a fortnight ago that Jane Prentice, Liberal National Party member for the Brisbane seat of Ryan, is likely to lose preselection to Julian Simmonds, a Brisbane councillor and former staffer to both Prentice and her predecessor, Michael Johnson. Despite Prentice being a moderate and a Turnbull supporter, the move against her has reportedly “outraged” Campbell Newman.

• Elections for administrative positions in the Victorian Liberal Party have seen Michael Kroger easily face down a challenge to his position as president, and conservative young turk Marcus Bastiaan much strengthened, including through his own election to a vice-president position. The Australian reports Bastiaan is “largely regarded as Mr Kroger’s numbers man”, but his use of his new influence to cancel an early Senate preselection process suggests the situation may be more complex than that. According to James Campbell of the Herald Sun, the preselections had been initiated at the behest of Kroger, consistent with Malcolm Turnbull’s aforementioned call for them to be handled expeditiously. The report further says Bastiaan’s determination to delay proceedings suggests a threat to James Patterson or Jane Hume, the two Senators who will face re-election at the next election. However, a report by Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review suggest the bigger threat from the conservative ascendancy is likely to be faced by factional moderates in the state parliament.

• The Toowoomba Chronicle reports John McVeigh, the Liberal National Party member for Groom, has easily seen off a preselection challenge by Isaac Moody, business manager of Gabbinbar Homestead. Moody accused McVeigh of having “betrayed” his constituents by voting yes in the same-sex marriage plebiscite (49.2% of those constituents did the same).

• The Clarence Valley Daily Examiner reports Labor’s preselection for the north coast New South Wales seat of Page will be contested by Isaac Smith, the mayor of Lismore, and Patrick Deegan, who works for a domestic violence support service. Page has been held for the Nationals since 2013 by Kevin Hogan, whose margin after the 2016 election was 2.3%. Smith is backed by Janelle Saffin, who held the seat for Labor from 2007 to 2013 and is now the preselected candidate for the state seat of Lismore.

• The Townsville Bulletin reports that Ewen Jones, who lost the seat of Herbert to Labor’s Cathy O’Toole in 2016 by 37 votes, has again nominated for Liberal National Party preselection in the Townsville-based seat of Herbert.

• The Courier-Mail reported a fortnight ago that George Christensen might face a preselection challenge for his north Queensland seat of Dawson from Jason Costigan, member for the state seat of Whitsunday, but Costigan announced a few days later that he had chosen not to proceed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

907 comments on “Federal preselection round-up”

Comments Page 15 of 19
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  1. adrian – well I think it’s been long-established on poll bludger that the Liberals are not conservatives in the traditional sense of the word. If anything, I view Labor as the more “conservative” (in the truest sense of the word) party, given that they want to retain and expand our “traditional” ideas of providing for education and healthcare, as well as “traditional” ideas of workplace relations, job security, wages, and labour/recreation divides. Furthermore, once upon a time, preserving the environment was seen as a profoundly conservative ideal.

    If anything, it is the Liberals who have fundamentally reactionary and disruptive goals for societal change.

  3. DTT
    BUT these should rotate every three years and never be reallocated to a board with similar membership. So the regulator might be on NAB board for three years and next time in the mining sector and then on a manufacturer etc. otherwise the regulator just becomes part of the “club” and independence disappears.

    Agreed.

  7. grimace @ #542 Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018 – 8:36 am

    zoomster @ #532 Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018 – 6:01 am

    ‘Business Council of Australia chief executive Jennifer Westacott said the Gonski 2.0 proposals would create “the real culture change” big business was looking for in schools. She said it was “vital” schools and industry worked together to make students work-ready, and the business community “stands ready to play an active role”.’

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/pretty-damn-critical-education-experts-urge-big-business-to-step-into-the-classroom-20180501-p4zcnk.html

    Jesus this “job ready” nonsense from the business lobby pisses me off.

    Business have completely washed their hands of any responsibility whatsoever to train and develop their employees. It is not possible for any general purpose education course to make a prospective employee “job ready” in the way they mean – they want the person to be ready to step into the role and be fully productive without any expense being incurred on a part of the business.

    When is the business lobby going to be called out on this insufferable rubbish?

    I have been saying much the same for a long time.
    It is simply impossible and totally unrealistic to expect all educational institutions to have courses tailored to suit all of the diverse requirements of every individual business.
    If they were capable of it, a moments reflection would cause them to realise this.

  9. Ms Proust told Radio National on Wednesday the AICD had never supported company tax cuts in isolation but believed they needed to be part of a broader tax reform package which included income tax cuts and an increase to the GST.

    And there you have it! The cat has been belled by one of their own.

    They want to pay LESS Tax, and the little guy can pay MORE, by increasing the rate of the GST.

  10. “I think Australia should do what they do in Germany and require company boards to have employee and union representation. ”

    Which, funnily enough, our generally accepted as quite successful (in terms of member interests and returns) industry super funds already have. 🙂

    Now, who has been advocating to change that situation so that the banks, business appointees can displace those reps?? Liberal Spivs like the Mouth from the South O’Dwyer of course. 🙂

    Their case for that has collapsed in rather spectacular fashion (to put it mildly) with whats coming out of the RC . Also, any rational case for changes to the award rules about default funds is looking pretty sick as well.

    That’s not to say that the industry funds wont take some kind of hit out of the RC that the Libs will try to use in their standard “UNIONS BOOOO!” campaign. Its in their DNA.

    But……….I strongly suspect that even if there are criticisms of the industry funds and their management to come out of the RC that need to be dealt with, the difference in degree between those and the funds run as retail will be significant.

    Big political fallout (with electoral significance depending a lot on the timing of the next election) will come from how well the ALP can prosecute the case that the Libs have been and are running a long term protection racket for the banks, retail super funds, and financial planning industry.

    Will be interesting to see how the interaction of the financial planning industry and the increasing prevalence of SMSF’s plays out. Financial planners must see SMSF’s as a river of gold to dip their snouts into.

  12. bemused

    Indeed. One of my ex students, working in the local Post Office, once told me I should have taught him how to wrap parcels!

  13. Di Natale has just announced a massive new national Greens program promise: a self-cleaning toilet for every dwelling with an au pair.

  16. It’s the Mirabella Syndrome

    No photos for you.

    Here is a government that is still talking about opening new coal-fired power stations, taking credit for a renewable energy project they haven’t put a cent into,” Ms D’Ambrosio said.

    “Only Labor has backed and invested in this project, which will support our Renewable Energy Target – something the federal government is actively trying to destroy.”

    Officials are particularly irked the Turnbull government should seek to bask in the glow of a project that is part of the Victorian Renewable Energy Targets (VRET) – a program routinely criticised by the federal government for seeking to expand clean energy faster than other states.

    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/victorian-government-furious-as-turnbull-takes-credit-for-french-solar-deal-20180502-p4zcu0.html

  17. People keep saying that the changes to Newspoll occurred a week or two BEFORE YouGov took over. But there is such a thing as fattening a pig for market. These sales don’t happen overnight.

  21. Whether he is talking about a chemist, or mistakenly a pharmacist, does he not realise that either of these occupations require specialist STEM university degrees?

    Now please don’t try and naysay about this to me, but honestly, a trained chimp could be a Chemist/Pharmacist. Making sure you put the correct label on the appropriate package. In fact, 100% of the risk that a pharmacist takes is ascertaining that this has indeed occurred. I predict that it is a job that will be fully automated within 10 years. The machine will probably make less mistakes than a human too.

    Plus, despite the rosy picture that don tried to paint of working in a pharmacy earlier today, let me assure you that it is not all he cracks it up to be. Standing in one spot putting labels on packets and checking them against a prescription is stultifyingly boring and hell on the legs and the back. There’s a little bit of product recommendation but even that becomes rote after a while. Such a waste of the time I spent at Uni studying all the wondrous Sciencey and quasi-medical subjects that have absolutely no relevance to being a glorified shopkeeper and drug dispenser.

  26. @SkyNewsAust
    ·
    1h
    #BREAKING: A Sky News/ReachTel poll has found the Coalition has regained two points but trails @AustralianLabor’s vote 48 per cent to 52 per cent on a two party preferred basis.

  28. Good afternoon all,

    The latest Reachtell is 52-48. The March Reachtell was the 54-48.

    Simply go to sky news Twitter and you will get the detail.

    Cheers.

  29. C@tmomma @ #721 Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018 – 11:11 am


    Plus, despite the rosy picture that don tried to paint of working in a pharmacy earlier today, let me assure you that it is not all he cracks it up to be. Standing in one spot putting labels on packets and checking them against a prescription is stultifyingly boring and hell on the legs and the back. There’s a little bit of product recommendation but even that becomes rote after a while. Such a waste of the time I spent at Uni studying all the wondrous Sciencey and quasi-medical subjects that have absolutely no relevance to being a glorified shopkeeper and drug dispenser.

    If that’s the worst you’ve got to complain about then I humbly suggest you don’t give cleaning a go. I cleaned casually for 6 years and I can can assure you that it’s not a nice job. Cleaning houses is several orders of magnitude worse than cleaning offices/factories.

  31. c@t:

    Plus, despite the rosy picture that don tried to paint of working in a pharmacy earlier today, let me assure you that it is not all he cracks it up to be.

    I don’t know whose post you are referring to, but it was not one by me.

  32. I may have missed these followong discussins
    Tim Hammond, ALP member of Perth, resigned as MP.
    What is going on? Did he suddenly realised he is missing his family?

    Sue Hickey, Liberal party state MP from Tasmania, becomes speaker with the help of Labor & Greens.
    Again Is White fishing in troubled waters?

  34. C@t:

    Perhaps you are thinking of Grimace’s post:

    grimace says:
    Wednesday, May 2, 2018 at 11:10 am
    C@tmomma @ #643 Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018 – 9:04 am

    My other son is employed at the same hourly rate that employed Pharmacists get now. He ‘only’ has a Cert 4 in Warehousing and Logistics. That is real world examples.

    I respectfully contend that someone working as a pharmacist enjoys far greater *conditions* of employment than someone working in a warehouse, not to mention the greater social status.

    And from my seat at work I enjoy a wonderful view of the warehouse through the internal windows.

    I know which job I’d much rather have.

  36. This may be as good as it gets for Malcolm.

    Santa Claus Budget.
    Tax cuts for one and all on the never never.
    Murdoch and his running dogs screeching boats, terrorism, immigration.
    Senate holds up some legislation.

    Election called at end of June for early August.

    What could possibly go wrong?

  37. Does anyone know the RC timetable. Surely that will be a big factor for Malcolm. How much longer is it going to go for? How long will the hearings last?

  40. Trump’s lawyers are preparing for a ‘showdown’ with Mueller: report

    After the Washington Post broke news that special counsel Robert Mueller raised the specter of a subpoena to Donald Trump’s lawyers in early March, CNN hit back with their own bombshell: that the president’s lawyers are preparing to go to war.

    According to CNN’s sources familiar with Trump’s legal team, the lawyers are “bracing for the dramatic possibility that Mueller would subpoena” the president — a move that could “could force a lengthy court fight” and challenge the president’s legal power “all the way up to the Supreme Court.”

    When CNN asked their sources if Trump would ever plead the Fifth Amendment in response to theoretical questions from Mueller, they responded that there are a number of “constitutional challenges” to be met for that to become a possibility.

    “Many legal observers believe that if Mueller issues a grand jury subpoena for Trump’s testimony,” CNN noted, “the courts will order the president to comply, because the Supreme Court has repeatedly ordered presidents to comply with subpoenas.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/05/trumps-lawyers-preparing-showdown-mueller-report/

  43. Looks like Labor may have lost a little skin building up its war chest, which it should win back when it starts spending. The Labor leadership are playing a very smart game. The most important thing is that its budget repair measures are stronger than the libs. If they were stronger, at the last election, we would have a labor govt right now.

  44. Fiona Katauskas

    @FionaKatauskas

    All those journos who cheered when @BehrouzBoochani won a Walkley and patted themselves on the back but have done nothing to investigate or cover Manus & Nauru get in the bin you parasites

  46. Sprocket – It’s not a “Santa Claus” budget when the Treasurer says you’ve got to wait six years for your present. Imagine what would happen if he tried that with a kid on Christmas Day. It won’t go down very well with adults either.

  47. I know someone who gets $45 an hour for house cleaning, actually.

    Contract Cleaning for a bastard boss would be a completely different kettle of fish.

  50. grimace,
    If that’s the worst you’ve got to complain about then I humbly suggest you don’t give cleaning a go. I cleaned casually for 6 years and I can can assure you that it’s not a nice job. Cleaning houses is several orders of magnitude worse than cleaning offices/factories.

    I’ve done both and I know which one caused me greater discomfort. Standing on my legs on a concrete floor in a pharmacy for 8 hours a day. At least you are constantly moving and doing movements similar to exercises with cleaning.

Comments Page 15 of 19
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