BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

The Coalition may have had a promising two-party result from Newspoll, but this week’s two polls recorded no real change on the primary vote.

In a week in which Newspoll’s One Nation preference allocations have roused discussion, I’ve decided to get a piece of the action in BludgerTrack. My recent method for One Nation preferences, for which the 2016 preference flow offers an unsatisfactory guide, has involved extracting a trend from respondent-allocated two-party results from Ipsos and ReachTEL. But the very strong preference flow to the Coalition from Ipsos three weeks ago, combined with the lack of any such new data since, seems to have caused the trend measure to overshoot in the past week or two. So pending a rethink, I have reset the One Nation preference flow to 60-40, which is basically an estimate drawn from the recent Queensland and Western Australian elections. Having rerun it on this basis, you will now find BludgerTrack reporting a 52.1-47.9 lead to Labor, where for a few days there it was at 51.5-48.5. This reflects the stability of Newspoll and Essential Research on the primary vote this week, notwithstanding Newspoll’s outwardly encouraging two-party result for the Coalition.

Labor is up two on the seat projection, gaining one in Queensland and two in Western Australia, but losing one in Victoria. Newspoll’s stronger personal ratings for Malcolm Turnbull have had little influence on his trend result, which had already been elevated by Ipsos, and he’s actually lost a small amount of ground on preferred prime minister. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,362 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. Ides of March not.logged in @ #1243 Monday, April 30th, 2018 – 5:42 pm

    Zoomster

    Wordsworth was an annoying git to study. John Donne was okay.

    I love John Donne! ‘The Flea’ is one of my favourite poems!

    Percy Bysshe Shelley is also up there in my book. His poem, ‘How Much Does A Grecian Urn’ is one of his best. 😉

  3. Zoomster
    I’m finding the Gonski report (mark whatever) to be filled with motherhood statements and very lacking in substance.

    A report designed to fix a political problem that lacks substance:

  4. Confessions says: Monday, April 30, 2018 at 5:59 pm

    phoenixRed:

    And correct me if I’m wrong, but the WH medico only reports on physical health not mental health.

    ****************************************

    It took James Comey to say – Trump is NOT medically unfit to be President ….but that Trump is MORALLY UNFIT !!!!!

    ……. and that’s 100X Worse than a few pounds of surplus fat on Trump for the day-by-day destruction that Trump is doing to the US !!!!

  6. Wasn’t there a conspiracy theory going around that Jackson signed off on Trump’s health check (clean bill of health etc) in return for a cabinet nomination?

    There’s also a rumour going around that The Candy Man keeps DJT in this:

    https://news.vice.com/article/users-say-the-smart-drug-modafinil-is-the-new-adderall-only-better

    In the not-so-dark corners of the internet, there are groups of people talking about a drug they’ve nicknamed “moda,” but they’re not taking it to have a good time. They’re taking it to work better, be more focused, and stay awake.

  8. After all the comments about the NZ PM (they seem to forget that her partner will be staying home to look after baby).

    @TonyHWindsor
    5h

    Australia has survived without a PM for five years now , NZ should be fine .

  9. Guthrie’s political masters will be pleased with her performance.

    ABC radio Canberra has had a similar experience to Brisbane.

    ABC listeners tune out
    STEPHEN BROOK
    Radical changes to ABC Brisbane have resulted in the radio ­station’s worst audience survey in 30 years. (Oz headline)

  10. lizzie:

    Perhaps we should be more questioning of male leaders of their ability to do their day job and raise a family? The shit Ardern is being subjected to really irks me.

  13. Fess,

    Clinton was criticised for being too old; Gillard was criticised for not having children; and Ardern is being criticised both for being too young and for having a child.

    It boggles the mind that so much cognitive dissonance can be held simultaneously by conservatives without their brains exploding.

  14. It boggles the mind that so much cognitive dissonance can be held simultaneously by conservatives without their brains exploding.
    Not to mention the hypocrisy. *cough* childless, unmarried Julie Bishop.

  15. JD:

    It’s just more evidence that our media and arguably many of our institutions are still inherently sexist.

  16. …and according to the Devine Miranda, breastfeeding a baby shows you are a ‘lefty greenie’.

    I assume the proper option is bottle feeding, possibly by the nanny.

  17. C@T – it IS interesting that people like Bishop and May are not subjected to the same hysterical misogynistic bullshit as left-wing women.

  18. C@t:

    Remember this?

    Mr Panton, a property developer, was photographed last Friday sitting beside Ms Bishop as the pair watched the Pope’s ­address to world leaders in New York.

    The opposition’s parliamentary secretary for foreign affairs, Matt Thistlethwaite, questioned Ms Bishop’s judgment. “It’s up to the Foreign Minister to explain if this is appropriate. If there’s a legitimate reason for this, then it needs to be clarified,” Mr Thistlethwaite said.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/foreign-affairs/julie-bishop-defends-partners-seat-at-the-un-assembly/news-story/ae436e71232dad9fc4e1164557bedfb7

  19. zoomster @ #1275 Monday, April 30th, 2018 – 4:51 pm

    …and according to the Devine Miranda, breastfeeding a baby shows you are a ‘lefty greenie’.

    I assume the proper option is bottle feeding, possibly by the nanny.

    And Devine’s criticism of breastfeeding just shows she’s an ignorant know-nothing with flagrant disregard for decades of developmental health research simply because she wants to make a political point.

  20. Fess – I agree. It seems to me that female politicians and public advocates who challenge the patriarchy of the rich and powerful are lambasted, while women who conform to it, cultivate its patronage, and participate in its preservation, a la Julie Bishop and Catherine Brenner, are rewarded with its protection and favour.

  22. zoomster says:

    …and according to the Devine Miranda, breastfeeding a baby shows you are a ‘lefty greenie’.

    I assume the proper option is bottle feeding, possibly by the nanny.

    Bottle fed by the nanny ? ! Gracious no, ‘proper’ option is a wet nurse.

  23. A problem with Shakespeare is context, one of my favorite quotes is
    What’s in a name? that which we call a rose
    By any other name would smell as sweet;

    Apparently one of the big competitors to the Globe theatre where Shakespeare’s plays were performed was ‘The Rose’.

    Sadly for them it had less than effective sanitary arrangements.
    This quote is interpreted by some as a direct dig at a contemporary competitor.

  24. “Senator Heffernan said Ms Gillard was unfit for leadership because she was “deliberately barren”

    I wonder if these kinds of comments would’ve been thrown about so casually and without thought if the Handmaid’s Tale had been on SBS at the time? Everyone at the time (including me) had forgotten the book and the movie hence we never drew those comparisons.

    But accusing a woman of being deliberately barren is SO Gilead. And Heffernan looks like an old fuddy duddy fool for saying it.

  25. ‘Golden lads and girls all must,
    As chimney-sweepers, come to dust. ‘

    …another example of lines which gain by context – ‘chimney sweepers’ was a country term for dandelion heads.

    So dandelion flowers are ‘golden lads and girls’ which become ‘chimney sweepers’.

  26. JimmyD @ #1270 Monday, April 30th, 2018 – 6:59 pm

    Fess – I agree. It seems to me that female politicians and public advocates who challenge the patriarchy of the rich and powerful are lambasted, while women who conform to it, cultivate its patronage, and participate in its preservation, a la Julie Bishop and Catherine Brenner, are rewarded with its protection and favour.

    And strong, competent women like Jacinda Ardern, just laugh at them and get on with their job.

  27. And Sophie Mirabella has got a caring side (who knew?)

    Here she is helping an apparently inebriated Nat off a plane..

  28. Ante Meridian says:
    Monday, April 30, 2018 at 2:46 pm
    I’d just like to mention my belief that Shakespearean plays are convoluted and ridiculous, or convoluted and boring, or just boring. They are taught in all schools because they’re classics, and they’re classics because they’re taught in all schools.

    I wonder if the countries that slaughter us in academic performance insist on their students being able to write essays about plays written in Middle English before allowing them to study science at university.

    If you don’t want to know how to interpret complexity, if you don’t want to be a human being who is aware of our culture, don’t bother with Shakespeare.

    If you want to be a know nothing science person, go right ahead. But don’t expect to be taken seriously when you try to interpret the English language, or discuss anything worth discussing apart from solving equations. A worthy pursuit, I enjoy it myself, but hardly riveting for most of the population.

    Language is far more important than Mathematics and Science, and I am a Mathematics/Science teacher.

    Language tells us about our origins. Sure it is good to be able to understand maths and science, but the most important thing is to be able to interpret our culture.

    Maths and science helps us to do things, language helps us to see where we have come from and where we are going.

    Shakespeare is part of that. And so are the classics of English (and other languages) literature.

    As just one example, if you do not have a working knowledge of the Bible, you are missing a huge amount of our culture. I speak as a non-believer. It is part of our heritage.

  30. Did anyone catch 7 news tonight? I could have sworn I heard a reference to $14/week tax cuts but wasn’t able to get that item. I know they are desperate but surely they couldn’t be that reckless?

  31. Laura Tingle’s first report on 7.30 is trying to make us feel sorry for the LNP, not having the support of big business in the same way that the ALP has the support of the unions and Get Up in the past.

    Of course she neglects to mention the undying support that the LNP receives from the MSM, including the very program on which she appears.

  32. In the last 20 years NZ has had a woman PM for over 50% of the time. By now they’d be pretty relaxed and comfortable with such a ‘scary’ situation.

  33. Bemused

    And strong, competent women like Jacinda Ardern, just laugh at them and get on with their job.

    Are you saying a woman who does not laugh at misogyny and get on with it, is not competent or strong ?

    You really do like women to be silent about harassment they suffer, don’t you?

  34. Puffytmd @ #1283 Monday, April 30th, 2018 – 7:39 pm

    Bemused

    And strong, competent women like Jacinda Ardern, just laugh at them and get on with their job.

    Are you saying a woman who does not laugh at misogyny and get on with it, is not competent or strong ?

    You really do like women to be silent about harassment they suffer, don’t you?

    In the bemusediverse, real women don’t make waves 🙂

  35. Bemused
    It is men like you who go around telling women to shut up about being harassed by misogynists, that infuriate me.

    It reminds of that country and western song, the title being, “You say it best when you say nothing at all.”

  36. …and, of course, when women don’t call out misogyny, they get accused of not standing up for the sisterhood. Happens here quite frequently.

    The old ‘damned whatever you do’ thing.

  37. Tricot says:
    Monday, April 30, 2018 at 2:46 pm
    Streaming in secondary schools is an old chestnut…………..as I understand it, it was great for the top Year 8 if a teacher got 8.1, the ‘best’ class as it were, but the absolute pits to get 8.11, the bottom of the bottom. Also, the younger and/or more inexperienced the teacher the greater likelihood to start with acres of Year 8s down the bottom end of the spectrum – the smart kids, reserved in classes for the ‘best’ teachers – they being those with a few years under their belt or clout with the Head of Department. In turn – it was they, HoDs, who also usually had a goodly number of the ‘good’ classes for themselves – having done the hard yards with the so-called dead-heads, earlier in their career. Anyone for “To Sir, With Love”?

    I am a very experienced maths teacher, and I much prefer to teach bottom year 7 and 8 maths than the top classes.

    The top class has bright kids who catch onto concepts easily, they are a joy to teach, and they have a wonderful sense of humour, and catch every nuance.

    But the bottom line is that any reasonably competent teacher can teach the top year 7 and 8 classes. To some extent, it is boring, except that they are great kids.

    The real challenge, and where you can make a real difference, is with the bottom kids, who have trouble adding two numbers together. Mostly they have had poor teachers, and they come into the class with a very bad attitude to learning and to maths in particular. They are often surly and rude to the teacher (initially), and are often very nasty to each other.

    It is a joy to get them to the point where they race to line up outside the door to be first into the room for maths class, where they love the subject, and make progress.

    I firmly believe that all kids want to learn. If you approach it in the right way, you can help them to learn, and love doing it, and they start to pass maths instead of failing miserably.

  38. In the bemusediverse, real women don’t make waves

    In bemusedverse it’s women’s fault when we experience sexism, misogyny, rape, domestic violence and so on. If only we were more X, Y, Z then it wouldn’t happen to us.

  41. don (Monday, April 30th, 2018 – 7:32 pm)
    Without getting into the Shakespeare discussion, your point is well received. Maths explores pure logic, including numbers, shapes, sets, and so on. Science explores the observable world, and uses mathematics where possible to refine and link ideas, uncover flaws and ignorance, and so on. Engineering on the other hand uses science and mathematics to actually change the world in a purposeful way, towards one or more goals. You can see how this builds. But the arts give us our meaning, our purpose. Art comes first. It is in all of us.

  47. don

    The three principles of working with horses are —

    1. As stress levels rise, lower your own. The more frantic things become, the calmer you should be.

    2. Assume that the horse wants to do what you want it to. If it isn’t doing it, it may be that you aren’t communicating properly.

    3. You can’t make a horse do anything. You can, however, stop it doing anything else until it does what you want.

    I find these translate very well to teaching!

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