BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

The Coalition may have had a promising two-party result from Newspoll, but this week’s two polls recorded no real change on the primary vote.

In a week in which Newspoll’s One Nation preference allocations have roused discussion, I’ve decided to get a piece of the action in BludgerTrack. My recent method for One Nation preferences, for which the 2016 preference flow offers an unsatisfactory guide, has involved extracting a trend from respondent-allocated two-party results from Ipsos and ReachTEL. But the very strong preference flow to the Coalition from Ipsos three weeks ago, combined with the lack of any such new data since, seems to have caused the trend measure to overshoot in the past week or two. So pending a rethink, I have reset the One Nation preference flow to 60-40, which is basically an estimate drawn from the recent Queensland and Western Australian elections. Having rerun it on this basis, you will now find BludgerTrack reporting a 52.1-47.9 lead to Labor, where for a few days there it was at 51.5-48.5. This reflects the stability of Newspoll and Essential Research on the primary vote this week, notwithstanding Newspoll’s outwardly encouraging two-party result for the Coalition.

Labor is up two on the seat projection, gaining one in Queensland and two in Western Australia, but losing one in Victoria. Newspoll’s stronger personal ratings for Malcolm Turnbull have had little influence on his trend result, which had already been elevated by Ipsos, and he’s actually lost a small amount of ground on preferred prime minister. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,362 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

Comments Page 25 of 28
1 24 25 26 28
  1. Part of the dilemma that faced Shakespeare was that much of his audience was illiterate. Chaucer even moreso.

    These days with literacy levels are much higher, thus the criticisms are greater and more complex. Analysis scrutinises more closely. Under it all was the need to entertain – using familiar contemporary issues and figures to discuss their own society. The Simpsons does the same … even, dare I say it? Days of Our Dreary Bloody Lives!

    We forget Dickens was Pooh-poohed in his own time as appealing to the lowest common denominator … yet over time, with the value of scholarly hindsight, his work can be seen as being a critique on the cultural norms of the time. Not historically accurate so much as the exposition of cultural norms/beliefs.

    Word art of any kind never purports to be factual – even if a historical figure/event sits at the basis of it. Indeed, my own most recent novel uses an ancient character as the framework upon which I built a fictional story. The supposed facts at the basis of it are few, but my hope was that people are attracted to the story and might want to learn more.

  2. Voice Endeavour @ #927 Monday, April 30th, 2018 – 4:13 pm

    @JimmyD

    You want quotes from the text?

    CHIRON: Thou hast undone our mother.
    AARON: Villain, I have done thy mother.

    Lets write 2000 words about what Shakespeare was saying about society, with this very highbrow joke.

    Voice

    No one is denying that there is lots of lowbrow stuff.

    The essay question should be contrast the low brow jokes of Falstaff with the soliloquies of Henty V and discuss their relevance to different audience sectors and the behaviour of Henry V himself and his relationship with his father

    “I know you all and will awhile uphold
    the unyoked humour of your idleness,
    Yes herein I will imitate the sun
    Who doth permit the base contagious clouds
    To smother up his beauty from the world,
    That, when he please again to be himself,
    Being wanted, he may be more wondered at
    By breaking through the foul and ugly mist
    Of vapors that did seem to strangle him.

    Yea, there thou mak’st me sad and mak’st me sin
    In envy that my Lord Northumberland
    Should be the father to so blest a son—
    A son who is the theme of honour’s tongue,
    Amongst a grove the very straightest plant,
    Who is sweet Fortune’s minion and her pride—
    Whilst I, by looking on the praise of him
    See riot and dishonor stain the brow
    Of my young Harry. O, that it could be proved
    That some night-tripping fairy had exchanged
    In cradle clothes our children where they lay,
    And called mine Percy, his Plantagenet!

    I think the “dick” jokes have a point.

  3. DTT,

    Agreed about the Game Of Thrones books (or “A Song Of Ice And Fire”, just to prove I know the proper bookish collective title). Bloody brilliant.

    But my favourite novels are set on Terry Pratchett’s Discworld.

  4. Ante Meridian @ #1204 Monday, April 30th, 2018 – 4:27 pm

    DTT,

    Agreed about the Game Of Thrones books (or “A Song Of Ice And Fire”, just to prove I know the proper bookish collective title). Bloody brilliant.

    But my favourite novels are set on Terry Pratchett’s Discworld.

    Bloody well wish he would finish the series!!!!

  5. @dtt – probably the books I enjoyed most at highschool were Watership Down, To Kill a Mockingbird, Animal Farm, Heart of Darkness. I’d also add 1984, Brave New World and the Handmaid’s Tale as books that many studied, that are examples of more meaningful and interesting works than anything from Shakespeare.

    For poetry, I’d take anything over Shakespeare. Wordsworth and Poe are the names coming to my mind from my high school years, but that’s mostly the toll of the years since High School that are fogging the memory. Although if I had to rewrite the syllabus there would be a lot more Oscar Wilde. Just to make the point that well written text about the human condition does not date.

  6. Ante Meridian
    But my favourite novels are set on Terry Pratchett’s Discworld.

    And what is your view on the many layers of Terry Pratchett? 😉

    Discworld is story, humor, and philosophy all in one. Nowhere else have I been made to laugh so much while being forced to think so much, all while being given a wonderful plot. The closest thing to Pratchett out there is Shakespeare. Yes, really.

    Here’s the core of my argument, then. Pratchett isn’t just funny, Pratchett is transcendent. There are lots of funny writers. Some are hilarious. A few are good at making you think at the same time. But most humorists, while brilliant, have trouble with story. If I put their book down, I remember the laughter, but feel no urgency to return. Those narratives don’t get their hooks in me—they don’t have that pull, like gravity, that a good plot builds. In short, they don’t make me think—bleary-eyed at 3:00 a.m.—that I need to read one more chapter.

    Pratchett, on the other hand, routinely makes me lose sleep. His best stories (I suggest Going Postal or The Truth) have excellent narrative urgency, but add to it a level of riotous wit. Then, if that weren’t enough, they kick you in the head with moments of poignant commentary—unexpected, brazen, and delightful.

    This has to be the highest level of fiction. It does everything that great fiction does—but then makes us laugh too.

    By Brandon Sanderson

    https://www.tor.com/2013/04/27/terry-pratchetts-discworld-might-be-the-highest-form-of-literature-on-the-planet/

  7. sprocket_ @ #1215 Monday, April 30th, 2018 – 2:31 pm

    Sophie Mirabella is dying in the Victorian County Court

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-30/sophie-mirabella-spoke-to-ken-wyatt-to-get-evidence-right-court/9710170

    Her evidence is being contradicted by Ken Wyatt, who she tried to recruit as an accessory ‘to get the evidence right’.

    OMG plus she apparently secretly recorded conversations between her and Wyatt! She’s an absolute piece of work. And trying to prevent the local member having a photo with the minister says it all about how bitter and angry she is.

  8. As I understand it, Shakespeare wrote for a wide-ranging audience. Some of the more gross bits were for what my Lit. teacher described as the Groundlings – the essentially illiterate mob on the ‘ground’ in front of the stage. The shorter the Shakespeare play the better as far as I am concerned. Really like McBeth but Lear leaves me cold – and Lear is three times as long as McBeth and three times as painful. I always took Goneril to be something to do with a painful disease.
    Also, suggestions about teaching financial nous to kids in secondary schools is nothing new. Back in the dim past, at least in Victoria, kids were exposed to a subject area called “Consumer Education” or “ConEd” as the kids would have it. It was generally seen as a Vegie 1 level subject by both teachers and taught. This new fangled subject replaced venerable subjects such as “Commercial Principles and Practices” which only kids in the “Commercial” stream did anyway.

  9. JimmyD says: Monday, April 30, 2018 at 4:33 pm
    Ante Meridian
    But my favourite novels are set on Terry Pratchett’s Discworld.

    ******************************************************

    I am probably not into the most esoteric of writers but for a modern writer of personal character development and analysis – my favourite is Herman Wouk – including The Caine Mutiny , Youngblood Hawke, and the most epic : The Winds of War and its sequel War and Remembrance ( classic Holocaust novels – made into amongst the first TV sensational mini-series – still can be found on eBay )

  10. JimmyD,

    I believe Pratchett’s novels are fantastic stories that, as Mr. Sanderson states, often kept me awake long after I knew I should be getting some shuteye. I also believe that some of his fans try a bit too hard looking for deep philosophical insights. A bit like fans of you-know-who.

  11. Ante Meridian:

    And this effect is in evidence whenever anyone searches for the influence of the same renowned playwright on modern culture. If you want to see it, you will. And a lot of people want to see it because, well, he was such a genius, so the evidence of his genius must be there. What we are looking at can’t be just a vague resemblance that we magnify through the prism of our bias, can it?

    Couldn’t agree with this more.

    I also think Shakespeare is revered partly because we’ve been told these are classic works. I mean, surely everyone couldn’t be wrong?

    I was an A student in English all throughout high school; even the years we had to study Shakespeare. But I felt like it was a load of boring twaddle that was wordy just for the sake of it, and that anyone who claimed to understand it was just pretending they could (or deluding themselves into believing they could, without being aware that they were doing this).

    But then, I am a cynical bastard.

    As the quote goes, the power of accurate observation is called cynicism by those who do not possess it.

  12. Voice Endeavour @ #1205 Monday, April 30th, 2018 – 4:31 pm

    @dtt – probably the books I enjoyed most at highschool were Watership Down, To Kill a Mockingbird, Animal Farm, Heart of Darkness. I’d also add 1984, Brave New World and the Handmaid’s Tale as books that many studied, that are examples of more meaningful and interesting works than anything from Shakespeare.

    For poetry, I’d take anything over Shakespeare. Wordsworth and Poe are the names coming to my mind from my high school years, but that’s mostly the toll of the years since High School that are fogging the memory. Although if I had to rewrite the syllabus there would be a lot more Oscar Wilde. Just to make the point that well written text about the human condition does not date.

    Voice

    While they are all good books they do NOT have the character depth of Shakespeare and by and large are political polemics.

    Not saying they are bad at all just not the same as Shakespeare. 1984 was for me powerful and terrifying – but it was a modern day political statement not an analysis if human nature or personal dilemmas. So too was Animal Farm – great books both of them but not Shakespeare. Heart of Darkness I found dreary.

  13. A good teacher can bring Shakespeare to life. I should know – I was one of them.

    It was very rare that a student wasn’t receptive to the beauty of the language, the strength of the ideas, and the drama of the story.

  14. What is the likelihood of an early election?

    I fear, with a ‘prizes for everyone’ Budget, and strong MSM support, this dastardly lot will claw their way back to power.

    In which case I’m moving overseas to Tasmania.

  15. Shakespeare is severely overrated. Very few students below year 10 are interested in his works (or thefts).

  16. Voice

    Surely Oscar wilde is impossibly dated. Importance to being earn and all but frankly it is about a relevant as Chaucer

  17. rule of law @ #1226 Monday, April 30th, 2018 – 2:52 pm

    What is the likelihood of an early election?

    I fear, with a ‘prizes for everyone’ Budget, and strong MSM support, this dastardly lot will claw their way back to power.

    In which case I’m moving overseas to Tasmania.

    I said the other day all the signs from the govt seem to be pointing towards an election this year rather than next year. I reckon there’s a good likelihood an early election is on the cards.

  18. Voice Endeavour, Ante Meridian, Mr Newbie, Ides of March and any others:

    “Methink’st thou art a general offence and every man should beat thee”

    All’s Well That Ends Well – Act II, Scene iii

  19. @ dtt – I can’t think of a set of works with less character depth than Shakespeare. The protagonists are so cliched and dull you start to wish one of the plays could have a decent villain to root for. I think King Lear has to take the cake for worst characters in any fiction ever.

    For works that can demonstrate good character depth, I would say: Watchmen, Game of Thrones (as you pointed out I think), Kane and Abel, everything by Oscar Wilde, Magician (not the rest of the series particularly, but the character writing in Magician is top notch), Dracula (for the villain mostly, not the good guys)

  20. Ides of March not.logged in @ #1227 Monday, April 30th, 2018 – 2:52 pm

    Shakespeare is severely overrated. Very few students below year 10 are interested in his works (or thefts).

    Not only did we have to study Shakespeare in years 11 and 12 but early Roman and Greek literature as well.

    I can’t recall much from back then (it was over 20 years ago now), but I do remember thinking the ancient Romans and Greeks certainly had it going on. Much more so than Shakespeare.

  21. rule of law

    Rush to an election before the RC merde really hits the fan would be the ‘cunning plan’ for Truffles.

  22. “I believe you find life such a problem because you think there are good people and bad people. You’re wrong, of course. There are, always and only, the bad people, but some of them are on opposite sides.”

    Terry Pratchett, “Guards! Guards!”

    (I realise it’s not really relevant, but it’s the best quote I could come up with at short notice)

  23. poroti @ #1226 Monday, April 30th, 2018 – 3:04 pm

    rule of law

    Rush to an election before the RC merde really hits the fan would be the ‘cunning plan’ for Truffles.

    What could possibly go wrong?

    There’d be a black swan event all right – a couple of catastrophic revelations a week or two out from the day of the election which ensnared Trumble and a few of his ministers.

  24. VE

    I can’t let the character depth thing pass.

    That’s why actors love Shakespeare: because the characters can be interpreted in numerous ways. Some actors have written books about their approach to a particular character – one I read spent a year preparing for his performance as Richard III.

    ‘Game of Thrones’ I found initially engrossing, but it fell apart in later books. The decision made to diverge from the books in the TV series was a good one.

  25. Oscar Wilde ( 1854- 1900 ) was YEARS AHEAD of reality …….think Trump

    America –

    “America Is the Only Country That Went from Barbarism to Decadence Without Civilization In Between”

  26. Ante Meridian,
    I realise it’s not really relevant, but it’s the best quote I could come up with at short notice

    “Your brain is as dry as the remainder biscuit after voyage.”

    As You Like It – Act II, Scene vii

    Shakespeare: an insult for every occasion 😉

  27. Voice Endeavour @ #1223 Monday, April 30th, 2018 – 5:01 pm

    @ dtt – I can’t think of a set of works with less character depth than Shakespeare. The protagonists are so cliched and dull you start to wish one of the plays could have a decent villain to root for. I think King Lear has to take the cake for worst characters in any fiction ever.

    For works that can demonstrate good character depth, I would say: Watchmen, Game of Thrones (as you pointed out I think), Kane and Abel, everything by Oscar Wilde, Magician (not the rest of the series particularly, but the character writing in Magician is top notch), Dracula (for the villain mostly, not the good guys)

    Well I have not read all of those, but seriously Oscar Wilde – his are comedies and the most cliched of characters imaginable. I liken them to Gilbert and Sullivan characters. Look I love them but to even think they have the depth of Shakespeare just shows that you did not understand the Bard at ALL – an amazingly shallow grasp – I suspect your teacher hated him too and you learned nothing.

    I am inclined to think that King Lear is a particularly unfathomable play and perhaps not the best to teach kids. Better to study MacBeth, Hamlet, Julius Caesar or the Royal series.

  28. Oh, and ….

    1. Every time George Martin got in a plot hole, he just killed characters off rather than resolve it.

    2. Rob Stark would have given up on the war once his father died and returned to Winterfell.

    3. No way would Jamie have been allowed to become a Kings Guard.

    4. George Martin has no concept of scale. The Seven Kingdoms are too big for one ruler; the Wall is far too big to ever have been built (let alone defensible).

    5. No one in their right mind would ever have trusted Littlefinger.

    6. Don’t get me started…

  29. “America Is the Only Country That Went from Barbarism to Decadence Without Civilization In Between”

    Definitely written in the 1800s. I’m sure native Americans felt differently.

    Indigenous societies (including in Aust) would have viewed the barbarism as having come from the so-called civilizers not the other way round.

  30. zoomster @ #1229 Monday, April 30th, 2018 – 5:10 pm

    VE

    I can’t let the character depth thing pass.

    That’s why actors love Shakespeare: because the characters can be interpreted in numerous ways. Some actors have written books about their approach to a particular character – one I read spent a year preparing for his performance as Richard III.

    ‘Game of Thrones’ I found initially engrossing, but it fell apart in later books. The decision made to diverge from the books in the TV series was a good one.

    I cannot agree with you there (or not entirely).

    I agree the last two books are not of the standard of the first three – much padding and filibustering.

    I have not watched all the TV series – Plan to buy the whole set and watch (do not trust U-torrent).

    Unfortunately those divergences from the book that I have observed actually ruin the stroy and depth of the characters.

    One that annoyed me was Sam who in the book showed true grit and DID get his ravens away, in the TV he failed. That undermines the whole point of the Sam character. It was a very poor divergence (and unnecessary).

    Podrik Pyne irritated me too. Why change a devoted 10 year old boy into a sex crazed teenager of no consequence.

  31. Confessions says: Monday, April 30, 2018 at 5:17 pm

    “America Is the Only Country That Went from Barbarism to Decadence Without Civilization In Between”

    Definitely written in the 1800s. I’m sure native Americans felt differently.

    Indigenous societies (including in Aust) would have viewed the barbarism as having come from the so-called civilizers not the other way round.

    *******************************************

    A few more Oscar Wilde classics – who really had a low opinion of the US

    “America had often been discovered before Columbus, but it had always been hushed up.”

    “I don’t think I should like America.” “I suppose because we have no ruins and no curiosities,” said Virginia satirically. “No ruins! no curiosities!” answered the Ghost; “you have your navy and your manners.”

    “In America the young are always ready to give to those who are older than themselves the full benefits of their inexperience.”

    “The beautiful, passionate, ruined South, the land of magnolias and music, of roses and romance . . . living on the memory of crushing defeats”

    “In one dancing saloon I saw the only rational method of art criticism I have ever come across. Over the piano was printed a notice: ‘Please do not shoot the pianist. He is doing his best.'”

    “I wonder that no criminal has ever pleaded the ugliness of your city as an excuse for his crimes.”

  32. Tom NicholsVerified account@RadioFreeTom
    5h5 hours ago
    I said at the very start: RADM Jackson should have declined the nomination. He wasn’t qualified for it, he was thrown into the coliseum with no vetting, and he should have known both that the people who were burned in the IG report would show up, but also that #ETTD

    https://www.politico.com/amp/story/2018/04/29/ronny-jackson-trump-doctor-559529?__twitter_impression=true

    Wasn’t there a conspiracy theory going around that Jackson signed off on Trump’s health check (clean bill of health etc) in return for a cabinet nomination?

  33. I’m finding the Gonski report (mark whatever) to be filled with motherhood statements and very lacking in substance.

    As a random example:

    ‘Finding 1
    Achieving educational excellence in Australian schools will require a focus on
    achievement through learning growth for all students, complemented by policies which
    support an adaptive, innovative and continuously improving education system’

    Well, der.

  34. zoomster

    And the Coalition will whole heartedly agree and declare vouchers,charter schools etc as being what Gonski called for.

  35. zoomster @ #1233 Monday, April 30th, 2018 – 5:15 pm

    Oh, and ….

    1. Every time George Martin got in a plot hole, he just killed characters off rather than resolve it.

    2. Rob Stark would have given up on the war once his father died and returned to Winterfell.

    3. No way would Jamie have been allowed to become a Kings Guard.

    4. George Martin has no concept of scale. The Seven Kingdoms are too big for one ruler; the Wall is far too big to ever have been built (let alone defensible).

    5. No one in their right mind would ever have trusted Littlefinger.

    6. Don’t get me started…

    1. Does he. I think not. Every death has its purpose in his story, including Ned and Robb. He started by telling the tale of Ragnarok and I am pretty sure that most of his characters are in fact deities in the Norse Pantheon. Robb and Ned had to die. I suspct he may have changed direction but it is not fair to say it was his plot saving dilemma.

    2. From the very first chapter GRRM present Robb as a lovable fool easily led by Theon. He is the archetypical idiot aristocrat, noble and brave but a bit of a thick head. He is also a teenage boy and Tywin showed his great understanding of just such a boy by playing him. Why would a boy who appeared to be winning give up his battles in the South. He had no one to guide him but a fool of a mother.

    3. Aerys made him Kings Guard. Aerys was mad. Aerys wanted to hurt Tywin. Aerys was probably Jaime’s dad. Lots or reasons.

    4.You are right about the Wall – actually GRRM agrees with you. However the actual map of the 7 kingdoms is just a recreation of Britain (slightly turned around and the actual kingdoms largely parallel the action 7 Kingdoms of the Anglo Saxon era. The whole tale is historically set in Britain and the history is that of the British Isles

    First Men + Celts/ancient Britains
    Andals= AngloSaxons
    Ironmen=Vikings
    Targs = Plantagenet (even the personality and histories are pretty bloody close eg Stephen and matilda
    The Starks and the Lannisters = Yorks and Lancasters
    Sept = church
    Maesters= Masons

    Recall that although there had been a unification of the seven kingdoms under the Wessex rulers, the real consolidation of the 7 kingdoms was under the Plantagenet. This is the same take as the Targs

    5. Little finger was a banker. Lots of people trusted them until recently.Surely he is the most believable of the lot given how essentially modern he is with his borrowing etc. He is really a clever version of Malcolm Turnbull. Lots of people used to trust Turnbull

  36. Statement from the president of the White House Correspondents Assoc. Laughably Michelle Wolf herself said during her routine that (wtte) ‘yeah you guys didn’t really do your homework on me’.

    :large

  37. dtt

    It’s many orders of magnitude bigger than Great Britain, which is the point. It’s about the size of Africa. As I said, that makes it unbelievable that it could be seven kingdoms, let alone one.

  38. Confessions says: Monday, April 30, 2018 at 5:32 pm

    Wasn’t there a conspiracy theory going around that Jackson signed off on Trump’s health check (clean bill of health etc) in return for a cabinet nomination?

    **********************************************

    Hopefully the next WH Physician is more HONEST than “Candy Man” Ronnie Jackson whose last medical report on Trumpy Dumpty is just laughable :

    His doctor said he was 6 feet 3 inches & 239 pounds – 1 inch shorter or 1 pound heavier , then his body mass index would go from OVERWEIGHT to OBESE ……. but then his doctor failed to notice he only had one leg on the scales …..

  39. adrian says:
    Monday, April 30, 2018 at 4:51 pm
    A good teacher can bring Shakespeare to life. I should know – I was one of them.

    It was very rare that a student wasn’t receptive to the beauty of the language, the strength of the ideas, and the drama of the story.

    Unfortunately my teacher didn’t bring Shakespeare to life. She taught the text of ‘The Tempest’ word by word and line by agonising line. There was no attempt to place the whole play in context.

    On the other hand, after leaving school, I saw ‘Othello’ performed on stage and it was quite impressive.

  40. phoenixRed:

    And correct me if I’m wrong, but the WH medico only reports on physical health not mental health.

  41. citizen @ #1246 Monday, April 30th, 2018 – 5:56 pm

    Unfortunately my teacher didn’t bring Shakespeare to life. She taught the text of ‘The Tempest’ word by word and line by agonising line. There was no attempt to place the whole play in context.

    Some people “get” Shakespeare and some people don’t. Sadly, this can apply to teachers as much as to students.

  42. In GOT, the wall can by any size it likes. This is fantasy after all. A bit a like Turnbull’s own image of his PMship. And Trump for that matter.

Comments Page 25 of 28
1 24 25 26 28

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *