Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research supports Newspoll’s finding that concern is growing about immigration, but not its finding that the Coalition’s electoral position has improved.

As reported by The Guardian, the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll brings no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining its 53-47 lead. As always, primary votes will be with us later today. The poll also contains a suite of findings on immigration, which concur with Newspoll in finding the existing level is perceived as too high. Sixty-four per cent rated there had been too much immigration over the past decade, compared with 50% when the question was last asked in October 2016, and 54% considered the rate of population growth too fast, up from 45% in 2013. Forty-seven per cent wanted fewer short-term working visas, which 63% believed undermined the capacity of Australians to find work, and 62% agreed with the proposition that immigration should be wound back until the necessary infrastructure is in place. Nonetheless, 55% supported the proposition that “multiculturalism and cultural diversity has enriched the social and economic lives of all Australians”, and 61% felt immigration had made a positive contribution overall.

UPDATE: Full report here. Coalition down one to 37%, Labor down one to 36%, Greens up one to 11%, One Nation up one to 8%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,165 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 20 of 24
1 … 19 20 21 … 24

  3. bemused

    ‘Just anecdotal I suppose’

    Yes, but (as you would know if you followed my link to Heckman’s site, and I really do encourage anyone interested in education to do so) in this case, backed up by a wealth of evidence.

  4. Wow, Scott Morrison is copping buckets wrt his backflip on NDIS Funding. A guy on ABC24 at the moment is saying that Morrison is trying to put the funding back on the States and their Health Budgets!

  5. zoomster is correct re testing, and having had some experience with Naplan- to say it is less than perfect would be the understatement of the year.

  7. Hear from marketing and business experts about the best strategies for personalizing the customer journey.

    Ridiculous use of the ever present ‘journey’.

  8. zoomster @ #949 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 12:35 pm

    The early versions of the VCE favoured in school assessments. These were subject to a very rigorous overview process to avoid teacher interference.

    On this more level playing field, students at government schools were out performing those at private schools (where they were accustomed to teaching to the test).

    As a result, more exam based assessment was introduced, to keep the private schools competitive.

    You obviously weren’t around then.
    Cheating was rife and the kids thought it a joke.

  9. adrian @ #950 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 12:36 pm

    —

    Unfortunately unsubstantiated bullshit full of ridiculous catch phrases such as ‘lunatic fringe’ etc.

    Most retired teachers think that standards were higher in their day blah blah blah.

    And even if standards have declined, the reasons that Donnelly identifies are erroneous.

    Hence I was much more interested in what Robert Reynolds and others had to say.

  11. lizzie @ #957 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 12:44 pm

    Hear from marketing and business experts about the best strategies for personalizing the customer journey.

    Ridiculous use of the ever present ‘journey’.

    Yes,and what’s with the use of ‘lost’ when somebody dies, as in ‘we lost so and so last week.’ This is all over my favourite broadcaster, the ABC of course.

    No we didn’t lose them. They died!

  13. adrian

    I am equally irritated by “She passed last week.”
    Irritation magnified by the impossibility of correcting the bereaved one. 🙁

  14. PeeBee @ #919 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 11:54 am

    I would expect educational standards at year 12 to have dropped since 50 years ago for the simple reason that virtually everyone does year 12 now. Fifty years ago only the most academically inclined students did year 12. They were of course the most able.

    Yes, and the same applies to university. 50 years ago it would have been more difficult to get into University, and also more difficult to actually obtain a degree even if you did get in. Now, it is both easier to get in (partly because there are so many more universities and types of degree offered) and the degrees themselves are easier to get (possibly excepting some specific degrees like Medicine and Vet Science).

    Both Sydney and New South Wales universities recently acknowledged that their lax entry standards and the proliferation of pointless degrees had led to a decline in academic standards. Sydney slashed the number of degrees they offer (from 120 to 20), and also introduced a minimum ATAR required to gain entry to each course (I bet you think they always had these – but no! They used to just lower the entry requirement until the course was full). UNSW has introduced a minimum ATAR for any degree (80, I believe).

  16. bemused

    ‘Cheating was rife and the kids thought it a joke.’

    Your son cheated, he was caught, and he used the oldest excuse in the book: Everyone else is doing it.

    I admire your loyalty to him but it does cloud your judgement.

  17. Some more blowback and there’ll be plenty more to come:

    Disability groups have accused the Turnbull government of treating people with disabilities as political footballs whose lives are “subject to the whims of the financial weather” following its decision to drop a plan to increase the Medicare levy as a way of funding the flagship National Disability Insurance Scheme.

    Treasurer Scott Morrison has also been criticised for failing to consult with disability groups ahead of the policy change, with advocates saying they learned of the government’s decision in the media.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/disability-groups-ignored-on-ndis-funding-decision-20180425-p4zbrb.html

  18. P1

    ‘(I bet you think they always had these – but no! They used to just lower the entry requirement until the course was full)’

    To be fair, Universities have always operated this way.

    Long before the ATAR, students who had failed Year 12 were able to find placements (if they were prepared to go to obscure regional Unis…)

  20. adrian @ #960 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 9:50 am

    lizzie @ #957 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 12:44 pm

    Hear from marketing and business experts about the best strategies for personalizing the customer journey.

    Ridiculous use of the ever present ‘journey’.

    Yes,and what’s with the use of ‘lost’ when somebody dies, as in ‘we lost so and so last week.’ This is all over my favourite broadcaster, the ABC of course.

    No we didn’t lose them. They died!

    But how will Christianity, and other religions that believe in life after death, be able to rationalise the Afterlife if there is no chance of finding them again?

    🙂

  22. guytaur @ #942 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 12:29 pm

    Philip Soos@PhilipSoos
    One of the best economic charts ever, by @grputland

    Labour and capital are robbed by both landowners and the State. Increasingly fewer of the benefits of production is going to employers and employees, which helps to explain the slowdown in productivity, growth and incomes. https://twitter.com/PhilipSoos/status/989320464265830401/photo/1

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    I think the conclusions are bollocks.
    The state, far from robbing everyone provides services such as health, education and infrastructure.
    Not sure about land, but I would pass on an observation I once heard about land: “they aren’t making any more of it.” So as populations increase, competition for land will intensify.

  24. zoomster @ #966 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 12:56 pm

    bemused

    ‘Cheating was rife and the kids thought it a joke.’

    Your son cheated, he was caught, and he used the oldest excuse in the book: Everyone else is doing it.

    I admire your loyalty to him but it does cloud your judgement.

    You are relying on just one instance I happened to mention because I knew all the details. I was also told much the same by teacher friends.

  25. I was always under the understanding that the score required to get into a course was only indicative of the previous year.

    It was the score of the last person to gain admission.

    So rather than being an absolute it was a guide to the relative popularity of that course in relation to the number of positions available.

    It gave a student an indication of what they needed to exceed to have a chance of admission.

  26. I’m greatly reassured by funeral insurance ads, which use terminology such as ‘IF you should die…”

    Death is clearly optional.

  29. Bemused:

    I know teacher who have told me much the same as Robert Reynolds says and my observation and reading over a period of time lend additional support.
    The rigour has largely been squeezed out of secondary education, particularly in science subjects.

    I can’t speak for other subjects, but that is not the case for mathematics in NSW.

    It is as rigorous as ever, though there are parts that I would excise, and add others.

    I would take out the mind-numbing use of sequences and series to calculate mortgages, better done with a spreadsheet as everybody else does, and add more interesting calculus.

  30. bemused

    Yes, I knew teachers who were resistant to the VCE, too, and made up all sorts of reasons to oppose it.

    I thought the old HSC system was very good, and was reluctant to try something new (which always requires, for starters, more work).

    However, I found it was much better in many ways than the old system. It produced more organised students (you could fail a student entirely if, for example, their classnotes weren’t up to date, or they couldn’t find a hand out you had given them), who were more responsible for their learning (again, they could be failed if they had consistently failed to follow advice given – so if I had corrected a spelling mistake once, I expected never to see it again), and so on.

    Under HSC, you could keep making the same mistakes you had been making at the start of the year, ignore teacher instructions and advice, and still pass. Under the VCE, no matter how ‘good’ a student you were, if you ignored advice and tried to rest on your laurels, you would fail.

    This – at least in English – was what defeated cheating. If you didn’t understand the work you had submitted, and were then asked to change it, it quickly became obvious. Thus, submitting someone else’s work as your own was self defeating.

    Unlike you, bemused, I keep an open mind. I recognise when something works, even if initially I thought it wouldn’t.

  31. I would pass on an observation I once heard about land: “they aren’t making any more of it.”

    Land is opened up all the time to development. Usually (residential) a once off sugar hit very much like mineral and fossil fuel resources and an even greater curse.

  33. don @ #979 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 1:13 pm

    Bemused:

    I know teacher who have told me much the same as Robert Reynolds says and my observation and reading over a period of time lend additional support.
    The rigour has largely been squeezed out of secondary education, particularly in science subjects.

    I can’t speak for other subjects, but that is not the case for mathematics in NSW.

    It is as rigorous as ever, though there are parts that I would excise, and add others.

    I can believe that.
    Shortly after VCE was introduced in Victoria, some private schools actively considered preparing their students for the NSW HSC which had much more credibility. I don’t think it ever happened and don’t know why. It may be because it was easier to offer the International Baccalaureate as an alternative to VCE.
    My NSW Leaving Certificate Maths was inferior to the Victorian Matric, but they did an extra year.

  36. One of the Labor’s major mistakes of policy is the seeming obsession with getting as many people as possible to earn bachelor degrees.

    Fifty years ago, degrees were rare and were seen as a ticket to a high income. The trouble was, they were expensive to obtain, so plebs were locked out. So the Hawke and Gillard governments implemented reforms aimed at drastically increasing the number of degree holders in the workforce.

    This let’s-print-more-money-and-we-can-all-be-rich approach to education was so successful that jobs which used to require a bachelor’s as the minimum qualification now often require a master’s. And a master’s will cost you fifty grand and two years away from the workforce.

    Which puts us right back where we started.

    Gough Whitlam had the right idea. Higher education should be free, but with only a limited number of places which are allocated according to merit.

  37. zoomster @ #980 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 1:14 pm

    bemused

    Yes, I knew teachers who were resistant to the VCE, too, and made up all sorts of reasons to oppose it.

    I thought the old HSC system was very good, and was reluctant to try something new (which always requires, for starters, more work).

    However, I found it was much better in many ways than the old system. It produced more organised students (you could fail a student entirely if, for example, their classnotes weren’t up to date, or they couldn’t find a hand out you had given them), who were more responsible for their learning (again, they could be failed if they had consistently failed to follow advice given – so if I had corrected a spelling mistake once, I expected never to see it again), and so on.

    Under HSC, you could keep making the same mistakes you had been making at the start of the year, ignore teacher instructions and advice, and still pass. Under the VCE, no matter how ‘good’ a student you were, if you ignored advice and tried to rest on your laurels, you would fail.

    This – at least in English – was what defeated cheating. If you didn’t understand the work you had submitted, and were then asked to change it, it quickly became obvious. Thus, submitting someone else’s work as your own was self defeating.

    Unlike you, bemused, I keep an open mind. I recognise when something works, even if initially I thought it wouldn’t.

    You describe a system where assessment was based on student behaviour rather than what they actually ended up knowing. Spot the problem?

    Your last sentence is simply arrogant and wrong.

  38. Zoomster:

    However, I found it was much better in many ways than the old system. It produced more organised students (you could fail a student entirely if, for example, their classnotes weren’t up to date, or they couldn’t find a hand out you had given them), who were more responsible for their learning (again, they could be failed if they had consistently failed to follow advice given – so if I had corrected a spelling mistake once, I expected never to see it again), and so on.

    Under HSC, you could keep making the same mistakes you had been making at the start of the year, ignore teacher instructions and advice, and still pass. Under the VCE, no matter how ‘good’ a student you were, if you ignored advice and tried to rest on your laurels, you would fail.

    I am appalled that you think that this is an improvement.

    So goody- goody two shoes passes, and anybody who doesn’t kowtow to the teacher fails?

    Spare me.

    In my book, the only thing that counts is how well a student does on a test, not whether they suck up to the teacher.

  39. Simon² Katich® @ #980 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 10:15 am

    I would pass on an observation I once heard about land: “they aren’t making any more of it.”

    Land is opened up all the time to development. Usually (residential) a once off sugar hit very much like mineral and fossil fuel resources and an even greater curse.

    Tell that to places like Singapore! 🙂

  40. (you could fail a student entirely if, for example, their classnotes weren’t up to date, or they couldn’t find a hand out you had given them),

    Insert -‘Jaw Drop’ emoji.

  41. adrian @ #985 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 1:18 pm

    C@tmomma @ #971 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 1:01 pm

    lizzie @ #965 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 12:55 pm

    bemused

    Cheating was rife and the kids thought it a joke.

    Was there no discipline in your school?

    That’s what I thought. My kid’s schools took Naplan very seriously indeed.

    More fools them!

    As it was the only benchmark test, what else were they supposed to do? Nevertheless, my point was, they certainly didn’t encourage them to cheat at Naplan. What sort of message does that send?

  42. Simon² Katich® @ #981 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 1:15 pm

    I would pass on an observation I once heard about land: “they aren’t making any more of it.”

    Land is opened up all the time to development. Usually (residential) a once off sugar hit very much like mineral and fossil fuel resources and an even greater curse.

    I always get annoyed when I see prime agricultural land turned into housing, which is happening more and more in the area where I live. It is not as if we have a whole lot of high quality agricultural land to spare! – but we do have plenty of land that is not good enough for agriculture (or has been severely degraded) that could easily be used for housing!

  44. Well, this certainly sounds familiar in light of what we are hearing from the Bank RC (from today’s NYT Editorial):

    As for the lobbyist-loving wing of the Trump administration, one of its leading members — Mick Mulvaney, who heads the Office of Management and Budget and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau — was extolling the practice of pay-to-play public service the other day. At a speech before the American Bankers Association on Tuesday, Mr. Mulvaney said that as a congressman he would only meet with lobbyists who gave money to his campaign. He also encouraged bankers — many of whom have given generously to him — to let their needs be known to lawmakers.

    Mr. Mulvaney was just making old friends happy. He did that for years as a congressman, defending bankers and fending off consumer protection. Since he took over the consumer agency that Congress created after the financial crisis, he has been working overtime to gut it for his pals.

  45. Di Natale YET AGAIN telling Labor what to do:

    ‘Stop the boats plan shameful’
    1:22PMRACHEL BAXENDALE
    Greens leader Richard di Natale ha called for Labor to distance itself from a plan to honour navy personnel who helped “stop the boats”. (Oz headline)

  46. citizen @ #994 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 10:30 am

    Di Natale YET AGAIN telling Labor what to do:

    ‘Stop the boats plan shameful’
    1:22PMRACHEL BAXENDALE
    Greens leader Richard di Natale ha called for Labor to distance itself from a plan to honour navy personnel who helped “stop the boats”. (Oz headline)

    Dick doesn’t do nuance, does he!

    I think we worked this one out yesterday! 🙂

  47. Further to Zoomster’s post above:

    So students who lick your bum get good marks, and the kid you can’t stand, but is head and shoulders above the rest of the kids fails?

    Not the way I do business.

    I make a point of not knowing who the student is when I mark their papers, easy to do in the NSW HSC where they start using their student numbers on their scripts.

    Only afterwards, when the paper is marked, do I record and match up the number to the student. There is absolutely no behaviour or compliance with rules component whatsoever.

    You should be ashamed, Zoomster.

  48. Tell that to places like Singapore!

    Well, I do seem to remember that Singapore did develop land (New Towns) reasonably recently (70’s?). But this land was developed by the state to the point that a majority of people live in building built by the government and a large number of apartments are still government owned.

  49. Barney in Go Dau @ #989 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 1:23 pm

    Simon² Katich® @ #980 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 10:15 am

    I would pass on an observation I once heard about land: “they aren’t making any more of it.”

    Land is opened up all the time to development. Usually (residential) a once off sugar hit very much like mineral and fossil fuel resources and an even greater curse.

    Tell that to places like Singapore! 🙂

    And what’s the price of land in Singapore?
    At least enough to justify reclaiming some from the sea.

  50. don & bemused

    Of course the academic outcomes were similar – actually, most students performed better than they would have under the HSC because they actually learnt. They had to.

    Knowing you have to correct spelling mistakes or fail means you improve your spelling (or at least your proof reading!); knowing you have to have the correct classnotes means you pay better attention in class.

    My point is the VCE produced a more rounded student, a better learner, than the old HSC (and, as I said, I thought the old HSC was terrific; I’m explaining why something terrific was replaced by something better).

Comments Page 20 of 24
1 … 19 20 21 … 24

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *