Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research supports Newspoll’s finding that concern is growing about immigration, but not its finding that the Coalition’s electoral position has improved.

As reported by The Guardian, the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll brings no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining its 53-47 lead. As always, primary votes will be with us later today. The poll also contains a suite of findings on immigration, which concur with Newspoll in finding the existing level is perceived as too high. Sixty-four per cent rated there had been too much immigration over the past decade, compared with 50% when the question was last asked in October 2016, and 54% considered the rate of population growth too fast, up from 45% in 2013. Forty-seven per cent wanted fewer short-term working visas, which 63% believed undermined the capacity of Australians to find work, and 62% agreed with the proposition that immigration should be wound back until the necessary infrastructure is in place. Nonetheless, 55% supported the proposition that “multiculturalism and cultural diversity has enriched the social and economic lives of all Australians”, and 61% felt immigration had made a positive contribution overall.

UPDATE: Full report here. Coalition down one to 37%, Labor down one to 36%, Greens up one to 11%, One Nation up one to 8%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,165 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 19 of 24
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  1. Thanks, bemused.

    Firstly, I have expressed some concerns about the education system currently, but mainly because it’s trending back to the days this gentleman laments.

    Secondly, the period he sees as the beginning of the rot actually saw Australia’s performance (both internally and comparitive to other nations) in education rising, to the point where the most innovative states topped the world tables.

    It’s only in the last few years, with the stress on constant testing (NAPLAN is only part of the story; students are routinely given on line NAPLAN testing at a school level at least once a term) which has seen the decline in standards. (It’s the internal measures which are of most concern).

    This has led to too much emphasis on teaching to the test rather than teaching for understanding.

    For example, I am currently tutoring a girl in spelling. She was being taught spelling through the rote learning of words which typically turn up on NAPLAN and was consistently scoring 7/15. I concentrated on her understanding the rules which govern spelling instead; within a couple of weeks her marks were in the 11 -12/15 range.

  2. Barney – there are concessions that can be made in points of style when we know Wayne is writing fiction … creative writing has more leeway

  3. guytaur @ #900 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 11:21 am

    It took a little while but it seems the Greens have taken up the recycling debacle. As they should.
    Peter Wish-Wilson@SenatorSurfer

    A national plan will require immediate action, and leadership. The #greens are happy to show the way forward on fixing our recycling crisis. https://twitter.com/smh/status/989308111168131072

    At least the Greens have expertise in this area – they’ve been recycling the same old policies for decades now!

  4. bemused
    “It takes a special type of talent to cram so many errors into one brief post.”

    Wayne’s ‘talent’ looks forced to me. I doubt he(?) is as stupid or inarticulate as he pretends to be. I wonder who he really is.

  5. adrian @ #899 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 11:21 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #861 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 9:43 am

    This is from BK list this am.

    If this represents the standard of Catholic Education then we should withdraw all funding immediately.

    At one point he is critical of flexible teaching methods then later suggests our classrooms and schools aren’t flexible enough.

    He also goes the full IPA on Aboriginals when talking about our history.

    It’s a real disjointed piece that doesn’t attempt to flesh out any of his points in any way.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/child-led-learning-has-dragged-australia-down-20180425-p4zbmb.html

    Kevin Donnelly is a right wing cultural warrior. Nothing he says on education should be taken remotely seriously and it is disappointing, but not surprising, to see him being paraded yet again in the MSM as some sort of expert.

    Read my post where I quote one of the comments he received and tell me what you think of that.

  6. P1

    Good joke. However the kings of recycling policies are the LNP. Still recycling that promoting coal stuff to increase emissions.

    🙂

  7. guytaur @ #900 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 11:21 am

    It took a little while but it seems the Greens have taken up the recycling debacle. As they should.
    Peter Wish-Wilson@SenatorSurfer

    A national plan will require immediate action, and leadership. The #greens are happy to show the way forward on fixing our recycling crisis. https://twitter.com/smh/status/989308111168131072

    As long as it involves more than simply saying how inadequate Labor’s responses to the problem are.

  8. In September of 2009 it became illegal in Australia to sell bread made with salt that is not iodised. This led to a dramatic fall in the incidence of women being iodine deficient during pregnancy, and thus should lead to a higher proportion of children being born with brains developed to their full potential.

    The first children to benefit fully from the change should now be in grade 3 or 4, and within a few short years will be moving into high school. Expect a strong uptick in Australia’s education performance soon.

    Also expect whichever party is in government to take the credit.

  9. zoomster @ #901 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 11:23 am

    Thanks, bemused.

    Firstly, I have expressed some concerns about the education system currently, but mainly because it’s trending back to the days this gentleman laments.

    Secondly, the period he sees as the beginning of the rot actually saw Australia’s performance (both internally and comparitive to other nations) in education rising, to the point where the most innovative states topped the world tables.

    It’s only in the last few years, with the stress on constant testing (NAPLAN is only part of the story; students are routinely given on line NAPLAN testing at a school level at least once a term) which has seen the decline in standards. (It’s the internal measures which are of most concern).

    This has led to too much emphasis on teaching to the test rather than teaching for understanding.

    For example, I am currently tutoring a girl in spelling. She was being taught spelling through the rote learning of words which typically turn up on NAPLAN and was consistently scoring 7/15. I concentrated on her understanding the rules which govern spelling instead; within a couple of weeks her marks were in the 11 -12/15 range.

    I thought he presented a pretty accurate AFAIR brief history of education in Victoria.
    As I have previously acknowledged, I did my primary and secondary education in NSW and when I did a tertiary course in Victoria, the Victorians were well ahead of me. In part because they had an extra year of secondary school, but also it seemed the content was a bit ahead.

    Thereafter the rot set in as described by Robert Reynolds and I agree with his timeline.

  10. I find it interesting that so much of the economic debate focuses on tax cuts. The working people I talk with most (my sons) never talk about a tax cut but they would really like some meaningful wage growth.

    I am of the view that people are becoming smart enough to know that a tax cut invariably comes at a cost, either cuts to government services or long-term damage to the budget which was the legacy of the Howard-Costello largesse.

    when the result of a ‘sandwich and milkshake’ tax cut are cuts to health, education and welfare it’s a case of misplaced priorities.

    I guess the Tories’ natural dislike for workers and the idea of a fair day’s pay leads them to the idea that low wages (paid for by their business backers) can be compensated by a few dollars worth of tax cuts paid for by reduced services for those very same workers.

    Win win for government and business.

  11. To those referring to water supply in WA, be careful because this Federal government offers monetary incentives for the privatisation of public assets

    What we have in Victoria is a “blame game” of the cost of the Desalination plant being amortised and that cost of amortisation of debt impacting on our Water bills – the “blame game” the DNA of the Liberals who attack Labor’s construction of the service

    So our privatised water utilities add the cost of amortisation to our water bills

    Business and business models are funded by debt and principally Capital and Reserves, their bankers and Trade Creditors

    That debt is never repaid – with banks the business model is subject to Annual Review

    And, significantly investment into premises is by interest only facility

    So banks (should) look at the protection of the Balance Sheet in regards the maintenance of Shareholder ownership, the performance of the business including liquidity resources and future projections

    The reason for this brief explanation is that the Desalination plant(s) are trading assets and form part of the review of business performance – including future performance and across generations

    So the infrastructure is a generational performing asset and should be so assessed – and financed

    To amortise the debt by a levy on water rates to consumers and in the life time of one generation when it is an inter generational asset is a nonsense and an unsustainable millstone around the necks of our generation (that is not our children because we are financing the asset as a free hold asset over 20 years)

    The Company gets the benefit of depreciation and repairs and maintenance are tax deductible expenses

    In a land of drought Desalination plants are a requirement so we do not experience what Cape Town is

    But, in Victoria at least thanks to the privatisation of water, the commercial arrangements need Review

    What are the commercial arrangements in WA given water has not been privatised and they have 3 Desalination plants?

  12. Erik Bagshaw@Erykbagshaw
    Per Capita tells Senate inquiry that polling due to be released next week shows two thirds of voters are opposed to company tax cuts, including a majority of Coalition voters. #auspol

  13. Massive quantum entanglement experiment could help solve a physics mystery

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2018-04-26/quantum-physics-entanglement-shown-massive-objects-first-time/9687076

    The obvious and immediately necessary experiment required is as follows.

    It can readily be seen that Mr. S. Morrison’s head can barely contain his brain.

    Solution, using laser treatment, clone Mr. Morrison’s head and send part B to the other end of the universe.

    Shake part A in an up and down motion and send it to join part B to observe whether head B is moving in a left/right motion.

    Return both parts to where they may be studied for information to help with time dilation and compression (or for use as bowling balls). Check for brain shrinkage.

    Next step – have a fresh cup of coffee and a hamburger.

    Mucho financeo required for this project. Please send cash to KayJay Enterprises c/- William Bowe Esq.

    ☕🍔

  14. bemused

    Of course you agree with him.

    However, the evidence doesn’t support was he is saying.

    If you can find the evidence that does, go for it.

    You know anecdotal experience is just that, and you usually are one of the first to dismiss it.

    People believe what they want to believe. I rely on evidence.

  15. kakuru @ #904 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 11:28 am

    bemused
    “It takes a special type of talent to cram so many errors into one brief post.”

    Wayne’s ‘talent’ looks forced to me. I doubt he(?) is as stupid or inarticulate as he pretends to be. I wonder who he really is.

    I have always been of the opinion that ‘Wayne’ is either a Liberal/LNP staffer trying to have a lend of us here, or a test run of a bot. ‘He’ comes across as a bit of a boganish supporter of the LNP, with his seeming lack of education and smarts in general. But it’s all a bit obvious and stereotypical and that’s why I don’t really believe that’s who ‘he’ is.

  16. I would expect educational standards at year 12 to have dropped since 50 years ago for the simple reason that virtually everyone does year 12 now. Fifty years ago only the most academically inclined students did year 12. They were of course the most able.

  17. Bemused, ‘I feel particular sympathy for the conscripts who had no choice.’

    There was a policy that said only conscripts that wanted to go to Vietnam had to go.

    When I’ve asked veterans about this, they all came back with the same emphatic answer ‘bullsh*t’.

  18. zoomster @ #916 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 11:45 am

    bemused

    Of course you agree with him.

    However, the evidence doesn’t support was he is saying.

    If you can find the evidence that does, go for it.

    You know anecdotal experience is just that, and you usually are one of the first to dismiss it.

    People believe what they want to believe. I rely on evidence.

    I know teacher who have told me much the same as Robert Reynolds says and my observation and reading over a period of time lend additional support.
    The rigour has largely been squeezed out of secondary education, particularly in science subjects.

  19. PeeBee @ #919 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 11:54 am

    I would expect educational standards at year 12 to have dropped since 50 years ago for the simple reason that virtually everyone does year 12 now. Fifty years ago only the most academically inclined students did year 12. They were of course the most able.

    I am sure there is something in that. But not the whole story.

  20. ‘I know teacher who have told me much the same as Robert Reynolds says and my observation and reading over a period of time lend additional support.’

    bemused, this is still anecdotal.

    You see what you want to see and listen to those who are saying what you want to hear.

    If you’re going to rely on anecdotal evidence, the balance looks like this:

    A teacher who have told you (sic) and Robert Reynolds versus Me.

    Your own opinion versus Me.

    If we’re going to use this as a measure, it will only take one other teacher to agree with Me and your own metric fails.

  21. zoomster @ #925 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 9:07 am

    ‘I know teacher who have told me much the same as Robert Reynolds says and my observation and reading over a period of time lend additional support.’

    bemused, this is still anecdotal.

    You see what you want to see and listen to those who are saying what you want to hear.

    If you’re going to rely on anecdotal evidence, the balance looks like this:

    A teacher who have told you (sic) and Robert Reynolds versus Me.

    Your own opinion versus Me.

    If we’re going to use this as a measure, it will only take one other teacher to agree with Me and your own metric fails.

    I agree with zoomster! 🙂

  22. zoomster @ #926 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 12:07 pm

    ‘I know teacher who have told me much the same as Robert Reynolds says and my observation and reading over a period of time lend additional support.’

    bemused, this is still anecdotal.

    You see what you want to see and listen to those who are saying what you want to hear.

    If you’re going to rely on anecdotal evidence, the balance looks like this:

    A teacher who have told you (sic) and Robert Reynolds versus Me.

    Your own opinion versus Me.

    If we’re going to use this as a measure, it will only take one other teacher to agree with Me and your own metric fails.

    Oh, I made an obvious typo and you spotted it and tried to exploit it.
    ‘Teachers’ obviously. And quite a few.
    I really would love to see a good academic study of course content over the last 50 years based on published syllabi or curriculums. I think it would be most revealing.

  23. Wayne’s ‘talent’ looks forced to me. I doubt he(?) is as stupid or inarticulate as he pretends to be. I wonder who he really is.

    John Kerr’s illegitimate child.

  24. Having worked in schools (though not as a teacher), I can confirm that there is definitely teaching to the test when it comes to NAPLAN, which is unfortunate, and defeats the whole point of the test.

    In my view, there is also pressure on teachers in some schools to inflate the grades given to students, so as to make their teaching performance look better, which helps with securing permanent contracts and promotion. Grading for reports is fairly subjective, and I’ve seen students who are clearly struggling being given C’s (at the expected level). The ‘benchmarks’ for literacy and numeracy at each year level are also so low.

    The pre-school years are critical for learning, and by the time a child starts school, it’s almost already ‘too late’ to make up for any deficiencies in the child’s home environment. There should be a much greater emphasis on the pre-school years for learning, and kindergarten should be free for parents and compulsory.

  25. bemused

    There have been numerous studies, some of which I’ve linked to before, and which you obviously didn’t bother to read (this plays both ways; you’re equally capable of finding them, particularly given your supposedly superior education).

    I didn’t say the link I provided had anything to do with educational attainment. I found it whilst looking for something else and thought it was pertinent to PeeBee’s earlier post about numbers completing Year 12.

  26. Mr Newbie

    None of this, however, affects the rankings internationally, which (for obvious reasons) don’t rely on countries self assessments.

  27. Mr Newbie

    ‘The pre-school years are critical for learning, and by the time a child starts school, it’s almost already ‘too late’ to make up for any deficiencies in the child’s home environment. There should be a much greater emphasis on the pre-school years for learning, and kindergarten should be free for parents and compulsory.’

    Yes, this is one of my own hobby horses – the recommendations are, in fact, that educational support should be ante natal.

    In other words, the parents and the home environment should be prepared before the child is born.

    — a child which is malnourished from birth will not perform well educationally;

    — a child whose parents are incapable of reading to them will not perform well educationally.

    James Heckman (Nobel Laureate in Economics) is the go-to guy:

    https://heckmanequation.org/resource/invest-in-early-childhood-development-reduce-deficits-strengthen-the-economy/

  28. antonbruckner11:

    Morrison always reminds me of a salesman talking through a screen door.

    That’s a perfect analogy for what he is like!

  29. poroti

    Sir John Kerr. May I suggest another knight , Sir Les Patteron ?

    ‘Wayne Patterson’ doesnt have the same ring to it.

  30. Mr Newbie @ #933 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 12:19 pm

    Having worked in schools (though not as a teacher), I can confirm that there is definitely teaching to the test when it comes to NAPLAN, which is unfortunate, and defeats the whole point of the test.

    In my view, there is also pressure on teachers in some schools to inflate the grades given to students, so as to make their teaching performance look better, which helps with securing permanent contracts and promotion. Grading for reports is fairly subjective, and I’ve seen students who are clearly struggling being given C’s (at the expected level). The ‘benchmarks’ for literacy and numeracy at each year level are also so low.

    The pre-school years are critical for learning, and by the time a child starts schools, it’s almost already ‘too late’ to make up for any deficiencies in the child’s home environment. There should eb a much greater emphasis on the pre-school years for learning, and kindergarten should be free for parents and compulsory.

    I was tested regularly in primary and secondary school in addition to having mid year and end of year tests. The mid year and end of year tests reported mark out of 100 i.e. percentage and ranking in class. Stark and factual with no dressing it up. Teachers also made comments such as the one I regularly got ‘could do better…” The other class tests were less formal but none the less, factual results, not much fluff around it.

    Why did tests become anathema with some teachers?

    If students don’t know the questions in advance, they have to prepare for any possibility. A well designed test will yield a pretty good indication of the state of knowledge possessed by the students.

  31. zoomster:

    In other words, the parents and the home environment should be prepared before the child is born.

    Totally agree with this.

  32. bemused

    ‘Why did tests become anathema with some teachers?’

    They haven’t. As I’ve already said, most students are tested at least once a term (there are four terms). Most schools run mid year and end of year exams. Year 12 has an extra exam at the start of the year, the GATT.

    The first thing I do with any class I teach (or any student) is run a diagnostic test.

  33. zoomster @ #937 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 12:26 pm

    Mr Newbie

    ‘The pre-school years are critical for learning, and by the time a child starts school, it’s almost already ‘too late’ to make up for any deficiencies in the child’s home environment. There should be a much greater emphasis on the pre-school years for learning, and kindergarten should be free for parents and compulsory.’

    Yes, this is one of my own hobby horses – the recommendations are, in fact, that educational support should be ante natal.

    In other words, the parents and the home environment should be prepared before the child is born.

    — a child which is malnourished from birth will not perform well educationally;

    — a child whose parents are incapable of reading to them will not perform well educationally.

    James Heckman (Nobel Laureate in Economics) is the go-to guy:

    https://heckmanequation.org/resource/invest-in-early-childhood-development-reduce-deficits-strengthen-the-economy/

    We have a strong point of agreement on this.
    My granddaughters who attend an excellent Child Care centre with lots of learning activities had a huge advantage over other kids who had not had such experience.
    Just anecdotal I suppose. 😉

  34. PeeBee says:
    Thursday, April 26, 2018 at 11:56 am
    Bemused, ‘I feel particular sympathy for the conscripts who had no choice.’

    There was a policy that said only conscripts that wanted to go to Vietnam had to go.

    When I’ve asked veterans about this, they all came back with the same emphatic answer ‘bullsh*t’.

    PB

    I was talking to a bloke recently – very nice fellow – who wasn’t in the regular army and wasn’t selected by the birthday ballot but volunteered to go to the hell hole in Vietnam anyway. It freaked out his parents, as you can imagine, especially his poor mother and although he ultimately came back with no physical injury he has spent the rest of his life trying to deal with the distressing effects of PTSD. This has included horrendous dreams and night sweats, a broken marriage, social seclusion and difficulty in holding down a good job. Yet he still insists, even with the benefit of hindsight, that he would do the same thing all over again if he had the chance.

    All I can say is the Liberal government’s brain washing at the time must have been very powerful.

  35. The early versions of the VCE favoured in school assessments. These were subject to a very rigorous overview process to avoid teacher interference.

    On this more level playing field, students at government schools were out performing those at private schools (where they were accustomed to teaching to the test).

    As a result, more exam based assessment was introduced, to keep the private schools competitive.

  36. bemused @ #905 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 11:29 am

    adrian @ #899 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 11:21 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #861 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 9:43 am

    This is from BK list this am.

    If this represents the standard of Catholic Education then we should withdraw all funding immediately.

    At one point he is critical of flexible teaching methods then later suggests our classrooms and schools aren’t flexible enough.

    He also goes the full IPA on Aboriginals when talking about our history.

    It’s a real disjointed piece that doesn’t attempt to flesh out any of his points in any way.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/child-led-learning-has-dragged-australia-down-20180425-p4zbmb.html

    Kevin Donnelly is a right wing cultural warrior. Nothing he says on education should be taken remotely seriously and it is disappointing, but not surprising, to see him being paraded yet again in the MSM as some sort of expert.

    Read my post where I quote one of the comments he received and tell me what you think of that.

    Unfortunately unsubstantiated bullshit full of ridiculous catch phrases such as ‘lunatic fringe’ etc.

    Most retired teachers think that standards were higher in their day blah blah blah.

    And even if standards have declined, the reasons that Donnelly identifies are erroneous.

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