Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research supports Newspoll’s finding that concern is growing about immigration, but not its finding that the Coalition’s electoral position has improved.

As reported by The Guardian, the latest fortnightly Essential Research poll brings no change on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining its 53-47 lead. As always, primary votes will be with us later today. The poll also contains a suite of findings on immigration, which concur with Newspoll in finding the existing level is perceived as too high. Sixty-four per cent rated there had been too much immigration over the past decade, compared with 50% when the question was last asked in October 2016, and 54% considered the rate of population growth too fast, up from 45% in 2013. Forty-seven per cent wanted fewer short-term working visas, which 63% believed undermined the capacity of Australians to find work, and 62% agreed with the proposition that immigration should be wound back until the necessary infrastructure is in place. Nonetheless, 55% supported the proposition that “multiculturalism and cultural diversity has enriched the social and economic lives of all Australians”, and 61% felt immigration had made a positive contribution overall.

UPDATE: Full report here. Coalition down one to 37%, Labor down one to 36%, Greens up one to 11%, One Nation up one to 8%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,165 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 18 of 24
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  1. Our great LNP are the only party who know how to run the country and the great economy and will be returned back to office till 2022 and ALP will never be trusted with the country finances of our great country again so Turnbull will be PM till he decides to stand down

  2. Victoria

    someone I know intimately involved with the NDIS says there is not enough funding at present, and many glitches still to be ironed out

    That’s the message from many outlets. Morrison is talking as if everything is fine. It’s a bloody shame. I really don’t think he has the right brains to be Treasurer, it’s all flummery.

  3. Lizzie

    Morrison like the rest of the liberal luvvies are not up for the job they are tasked to do as far as the general population is concerned

  5. A cunning plan from Trumble.

    Announce a cut in income tax rates for the future, with the cut being phased in while Labor is in government.

    The Liberals get the credit for the tax cuts, and Labor get the blame for the increase in the deficit (or the blame for undoing the tax cuts).

    Whilst a couple of journalists seem to have twigged, Labor probably need to get out and point out the obvious.

  6. Someone like “Wayne” is so obviously a parody troll that I’m surprised anyone here bothers to respond as if he’s real and as if what he says makes sense.

    I have to say that ScoMo’s blather isn’t much more convincing.

  9. From today, all free range egg producers in Australia will be bound by a new information standard, applied under Australian Consumer Law (ACL).

    It’s an enforceable policy, meaning the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) can prosecute producers who break the rules.

    But what’s in the new standard, and what does it mean for consumers?

    Here’s what you need to know.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-26/new-free-range-egg-laws-come-into-effect-today/9696146

  10. VE

    To get a poll hit from a tax cut it needs to take effect within three months of an election.

    Offering one some years in the future might help balance the finances but a cynical electorate knows that things change.

    Remember Keatings L-A-W tax cuts? Not his finest hour.

    Oh,and looking forward to adding the $600 to Abbott’s $500.

  11. This is from BK list this am.

    If this represents the standard of Catholic Education then we should withdraw all funding immediately.

    At one point he is critical of flexible teaching methods then later suggests our classrooms and schools aren’t flexible enough.

    He also goes the full IPA on Aboriginals when talking about our history.

    It’s a real disjointed piece that doesn’t attempt to flesh out any of his points in any way.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/child-led-learning-has-dragged-australia-down-20180425-p4zbmb.html

  12. Pah!

    The 10,0000 hens per hectare allowance is higher than that already used by some producers, and will allow more birds to be farmed per square metre.

    My experience has been that ‘free range’ eggs have paper thin shells. Doesn’t say much for the quality of feed they are given.

  13. All this talk around the NDIS and the budget ignores the inalienable truth of current Australian politics:

    No one is listening tot he government any more so it doesn’t matter what they say or do. They’re toast.

  14. Morrison always reminds me of a salesman talking through a screen door. I wouldn’t be surprised if he offered voters a set of steak knives. His presentational skills as a treasurer are just shocking.

  15. grace pettigrew‏ @broomstick33 · 1h1 hour ago

    any journalist who buys into Morrison’s schtick about the sudden “rosy economy” meaning the Medicare Levy rise is no longer needed (even above $80K) and does not mention outsourcing #NDIS to multinational Serco with a crap record in service delivery, is not a journalist #auspol

  16. Observer @ #827 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 6:18 am

    Don

    And it is exactly the same with Water (including desalination plants in West Australia, South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales), private health insurance and Local Council Rates

    All three of WA’s desalinisation plants are owned by the state government via the Water Corporation.

  18. Good morning all,

    In his haste to be relevant Morrison has committed one of the cardinal sins of government. Over promising. His tame MSM is not helping his cause either. God bless them.

    Australians will be waiting for tax cuts that will make a real difference to their take home pay. On budget night they will be very disappointed as they take the microscope out to check how much they will get. Anyway, if cuts are over 10 years as reported bracket creep will eventually suck them up anyway.

    NDIS advocates will be very disappointed when Morrison provides no guarantee for a locked in future funding stream. The Medicare increase was always a political ploy anyway but Morrison has set the standard for future funding of this scheme with his previous rhetoric. Advocates will not be happy with the ” increase in revenue ” line to cover the cost and like a jilted lover they will turn nasty against the government. The general budget revenue flow is always the source of funding g anyway for all expenditure including NDIS, health, education etc. Nothing is locked away in a separate box. Morrison knows this but by playing politics with the NDIS he has left himself no where to turn on budget night.

    Cheers.

  19. From BKs links this morning.

    Kevin Donnelly tells us that compared to stronger performing education systems, Australian classrooms have been forced to adopt a dumbed down, overcrowded curriculum that lacks academic rigour.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/child-led-learning-has-dragged-australia-down-20180425-p4zbmb.html

    I am no fan of what Donnelly generally has to say and certainly not his politics. But I think on this occasion he makes some valid points. And I am not alone in thinking this.
    For example, one of the comments:

    Robert Reynolds
    12 hours ago
    Kevin Donnelly is absolutely correct to draw attention to the fact that the Australian curriculum has been dumbed down.

    I am now 70 years of age and a semi-retired secondary school teacher. Alarm bells started to ring for me 50 years ago when, under great pressure from the teacher unions and the ‘radical rat-bag’ element in the education system, first the Intermediate Certificate was abandoned. This was an externally set and as far as I can recall, an externally marked, examination held across the state at the end of Fourth Form, or what is now called Year 10. Shortly after, the educational wreckers achieved the same results with the Leaving Certificate, a similar examination that was held state-wide at the end of Fifth Form. In place of these external examinations we had ‘school based assessment’. This was a travesty of major proportions as it was not possible to make any sort of meaningful comparison between the results of students from one school with those of students from another school.

    Instead of wrecking the then Matriculation Certification we saw it replaced with the Higher School Certificate (H.S.C.). Associated with this development was a drop in standards and educational rigor.

    However, all this was still not enough for the lunatic fringe in education. Hell-bent on achieving what I regarded as a policy of ‘disguising failure’ and ‘camouflaging success’, this group finally succeeded in having the Victorian Certificate of Education (V.C.E.) replace the H.S.C. At that time ‘FAIL’ was the most profane four-letter work in the lexicon of the radicals. The V.C.E. was supposed to be the harbinger of some kind of educational Shangri-La, in that it guaranteed “Access and Success”, “Equality of Outcomes” and “Parity of Esteem of Subjects”. I am not joking here, I lived through and participate in, this “Mad Hatters Tea-Party”, which former Victorian Labor Premier and Education Minister, Joan Kirner bears much responsibility for.

    My main teaching area is chemistry. I can say without a shadow of doubt that the most rigorous chemistry course that I ever had experience with was the Matriculation course. When the H.S.C. was introduced much of the mathematical component of this course was replaced with descriptive material which mainly involved the learning of industrial processes and necessitated the learning of a number of chemical equations. The decline in standards that was evident with the introduction of the V.C.E. was an absolute embarrassing disgrace.

    I fully agree with Kevin that the history course is heavily influenced by ‘political correct’ considerations rather than important developments in western civilization.

    Finally, as for this “constructivism” approach, goes, it causes me to think that we have Larry, Curly and Moe running the education system.

    Oh, and am I a Liberal Party supporter, or an IPA member. Absolutely not! I have never voted for the Liberal Party in my life and the economic policies of the IPA are totally antithetical to my democratic socialist ideals.

    Over to you zoomster.

  20. Barney in Go Dau @ #861 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 9:43 am

    This is from BK list this am.

    If this represents the standard of Catholic Education then we should withdraw all funding immediately.

    At one point he is critical of flexible teaching methods then later suggests our classrooms and schools aren’t flexible enough.

    He also goes the full IPA on Aboriginals when talking about our history.

    It’s a real disjointed piece that doesn’t attempt to flesh out any of his points in any way.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/child-led-learning-has-dragged-australia-down-20180425-p4zbmb.html

    Barney, we’ve done it again, but I was more interested in one of the comments.

  21. Good Morning

    Doyley

    Yes I agree with you. The only budget bounce I see happening is to Labor for exactly the reasons you describe.

    The exact same politics that hurt Wayne Swan on budget surplus claims is now going to bite Morrison.

  22. grimace says:
    Thursday, April 26, 2018 at 9:58 am
    Observer @ #827 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 6:18 am

    Don

    And it is exactly the same with Water (including desalination plants in West Australia, South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales), private health insurance and Local Council Rates

    All three of WA’s desalinisation plants are owned by the state government via the Water Corporation.

    Not even the crazy branch of the Liberal Party would propose selling off the water supply in WA. It is literally our lifeline. No-one would accept it being placed in private hands.

  23. lizzie, Vic,

    The NDIS rollout has been a shambles. I would like to think that if Labor were in charge over the last 3 years, they would have opened the spigot a bit and provided more funding to the NDIA to process the massive transfer of disability support recipients on to the NDIS.

    It has been not at all helped by the internal budget constraints that clearly being targeted by NDIA management when directing case workers on how to assess new applicants. This has lead to many more reviews of funding allowances than I think they possibly envisioned.

    And at the other end, the problems are exemplified by the fact that many service providers just haven’t been paid. These are mainly small businesses, and it is scaring many other service providers from signing on.

    I am expecting Labor to pick up this stick and start beating the Libs with it sometime soon.

  26. Was it just me, or was there a marked lack of the usual Anzac Day melodrama and sentimentality yesterday?

    With the centenaries almost over, have we finally reached peak Anzac?

    Normally it’s pretty difficult to escape Digger Documentaries and interviews with descendants, long articles in newspapers etc. But this year I didn’t feel the usual jingoistic bombardment.

  27. ‘Full service propaganda machine’: Whistleblower says Bannon used Cambridge Analytica to research Putin and voter suppression

    A Cambridge Analytica whistleblower told lawmakers on Wednesday that former White House strategist Steve Bannon turned the company into “essentially a full service propaganda machine” run by its parent company, the Washington Examiner reported.

    Wylie reportedly said Cambridge Analytica “was set up to be essentially a full service propaganda machine.”

    He also says Bannon tasked the company with testing messages for American audiences on Russian President Vladimir Putin.

    Bannon also spoke about voter disenfranchisement.

    “There is one document which I have that specifically says—in bold terms—voter disengagement as an objective in the United States,” Wylie explained.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/04/full-service-propaganda-machine-whistleblower-says-bannon-used-cambridge-analytica-research-putin-voter-suppression/

  28. BB WWI & II diggers are all dropping off the twig, as well. And the powers that be have never truly recognised Vietnam vets as being heroes … so the sentimentality is being diminished

  29. MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace: John Kelly ‘has abandoned trying to manage the president’

    The ongoing turmoil over Dr. Ronny Jackson’s nomination to lead the Veterans Administration was caused by White House Chief of Staff John Kelly’s failures, MSNBC anchor Nicolle Wallace reported Wednesday.

    “I’ve heard from two sources today that Kelly has essentially abandoned trying to manage the president and all he is in charge of is staff and process,” Wallace reported. “This seems like a failure on both those fronts.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/04/two-sources-tell-nicolle-wallace-john-kelly-abandoned-trying-manage-president/

  30. BB

    In anticipation of that I watched France24 CNN and the BBC

    Nothing about Anzac Day there at all.

    I saw some pointing out the that its about how bad war is on twitter and that was about it for my experience of the day.

    So I am glad to hear that maybe Australians are reacting the glorification of war by the politicians and returning to the salutary lesson that war is bad and should be avoided not sought.

  31. Bushfire Bill @ #876 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 8:14 am

    Was it just me, or was there a marked lack of the usual Anzac Day melodrama and sentimentality yesterday?

    With the centenaries almost over, have we finally reached peak Anzac?

    Normally it’s pretty difficult to escape Digger Documentaries and interviews with descendants, long articles in newspapers etc. But this year I didn’t feel the usual jingoistic bombardment.

    Now that we have Netflix, YouTube and Hulu running at home we watch very little free to air TV, so things like ANZACery tend to pass us by largely unnoticed.

    I passed by the local bowling club on my morning run yesterday and there was an ANZAC day event that appeared to be very well attended.

  32. Fox Poll Stunner: Strong Majority Think Trump Is Guilty Of Criminal Or Impeachable Offenses

    In a poll that will enrage the already panicked President of the United States, a strong majority of the country believes that Robert Mueller will uncover evidence that shows Donald Trump is guilty of impeachable or criminal behavior.

    According to the Fox News survey, a whopping 56 percent of the country believes “it’s likely that Mueller’s probe will find Donald Trump committed criminal or impeachable offenses.”

    What’s worse for Trump is that the American people don’t share his opinion that the special counsel probe is a witch hunt. Instead, they want it to continue.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2018/04/25/trump-impeachable-offenses.html

  33. Michael Cohen All But Admits Guilt By Pleading The 5th In The Stormy Daniels Case

    Donald Trump’s personal attorney Michael Cohen all but admitted he was guilty on Wednesday by sharing his plans to plead the fifth in the lawsuit between him and Stormy Daniels.

    As MSNBC’s Steve Benen brilliantly noted a short time ago on Twitter, Trump himself said in 2016 that innocent people don’t utilize the Fifth Amendment.

    “The mob takes the Fifth Amendment,” Trump said two months before the 2016 presidential election. “I think it is disgraceful.”

    https://www.politicususa.com/2018/04/25/cohen-admits-guilt-fifth.html

  34. jenauthor @ #878 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 8:16 am

    BB WWI & II diggers are all dropping off the twig, as well. And the powers that be have never truly recognised Vietnam vets as being heroes … so the sentimentality is being diminished

    Lest We Forget so long as the (returned) servicemen are photogenic and we can mouth meaningless platitudes without actually having to do anything.

    As for those who are not photogenic (i.e. alive but physically or mentally destroyed by their service ) they best stay out of sight so we can disregard their needs without the guilt associated with them being in pain sight and forget them, and our politicians can do some faux patriotic flag waving as we disregard the lessons learned in previous conflicts and rush of to the next one.

  35. jenauthor @ #878 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 10:16 am

    BB WWI & II diggers are all dropping off the twig, as well. And the powers that be have never truly recognised Vietnam vets as being heroes … so the sentimentality is being diminished

    The Vietnam vets are men, and women, who have been used and abused.
    I have recently had a bit to do with a group of them about my age and they all look much older than me.
    I feel particular sympathy for the conscripts who had no choice.
    Australia should never have been involved in that fiasco.
    We also had our heroes among those who opposed the war as draft resisters and conscientious objectors and paid a price for doing so.
    The corrupt political gang who sent over 500 Australians to their death in Vietnam have never been called to account. They should be.

  37. Wayne @ #850 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 6:27 am

    Our great LNP are the only party who know how to run the country and the great economy and will be returned back to office till 2022 and ALP will never be trusted with the country finances of our great country again so Turnbull will be PM till he decides to stand down

    Wayne if you want to gain a higher IELTS score you really need to work on your Use of English.

    -The LNP is a single entity, so you can think of it as an “it”, therefore the correct form of the verb to be is, “is”.

    -“return back” implies you are currently not at the place you want to be.

    -The ALP is a unique entity, so it should always be preceded by the definite article “the”.

    -“country finances,” I don’t think you are talking about rural finances here and so you should use a possessive “s” to indicate whose finances. “country’s finances”

    -Also in English we try to avoid repeating words in the same sentence.

    “the country finances of our great country again”

    You could write this as, “our great country’s finances again”
    or
    “the finances of our great country again”

    -Next, because/so, think of it as reason/action

    I had a drink because I was thirsty.

    I was thirsty, so I had a drink.

    In your sentence do you want to say the LNP’s success is despite Turnbull or do you think think he is the reason? It is unclear.

    -Finally, use sentences.

    You can not claim to have even written one as there is no full stop at the end.

    Was there more you wished to write and you just ran out of time?

    You have tried to include many points in that partial sentence.

    You will be rewarded in your test if you break these down and expand on some of them, especially when offering an opinion. Just think, “Why?”.

    Make notes before you start, so you can structure your writing better.

    This helps with sentence and paragraph construction, which will vastly improve the coherency of your writing.

    I know it’s difficult but just keep trying.

    It may be that you are not comfortable with the subject matter.

    Try another topic, that may help! 🙂

  38. lizzie says:
    Thursday, April 26, 2018 at 9:32 am
    I’m tempted to block Wayne, but then I’d miss out on the laugh of the day.

    Lizzie

    The best way to deal with attention seekers like Wayne who parrot mindless drivel over and over again is to completely ignore them. Simply don’t acknowledge them in any way. If we all did that they would soon realise they are not going to get any bites here and bugger off to annoy someone else.

    It is impossible to debate with them because they are not here to sensibly discuss ideas. They are here to press people’s reflex buttons and that is all. Any commentary on what say – whatever form it takes – they will see as a victory. We should all just give them the sound of ‘crickets’.

  41. Bushfire Bill @ #875 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 7:14 am

    Was it just me, or was there a marked lack of the usual Anzac Day melodrama and sentimentality yesterday?

    With the centenaries almost over, have we finally reached peak Anzac?

    Normally it’s pretty difficult to escape Digger Documentaries and interviews with descendants, long articles in newspapers etc. But this year I didn’t feel the usual jingoistic bombardment.

    I think Twitter was taken down for the day! 🙂

  45. Voice Endeavour says:
    Thursday, April 26, 2018 at 9:32 am
    A cunning plan from Trumble.

    Announce a cut in income tax rates for the future, with the cut being phased in while Labor is in government.

    The Liberals get the credit for the tax cuts, and Labor get the blame for the increase in the deficit (or the blame for undoing the tax cuts).

    Whilst a couple of journalists seem to have twigged, Labor probably need to get out and point out the obvious.

    VE

    With the war chest Labor have assembled for the next election I’m sure they are very well placed to trump (if you’ll pardon the expression) any tax cuts the Liberals want to appear to be offering. It will be Crocodile Dundee all over again – THAT’S not a tax cut. THIS is a tax cut.

    We don’t know yet exactly what the Liberals will be offering, but the fact that they intend to increase it on the never never over a number of years suggests that the first instalment won’t be very large and that will make it open to ridicule. Just as the company tax cuts are supposed to create more jobs and lift wages in about ten years time, so it seems to be with the tax cuts. The real benefit will come some time in the distant future.

    In the present political climate I just can’t see the voters being fooled by that kind of hog wash. Not enough of them to swing an election anyway. It plays straight into Labor’s hands. Shorten will drive a tractor through it all.

  47. With the NDIS I hope Labor stops the privatisation of it. By that I mean the backbone stuff that the government does as part of the rollout. First should be taking SERCO out of the administration. There record of listening to complaints is appalling as we know from its administration of the concentration camps that the LNP have turned off shore detention into.

  49. Barney in Go Dau @ #861 Thursday, April 26th, 2018 – 9:43 am

    This is from BK list this am.

    If this represents the standard of Catholic Education then we should withdraw all funding immediately.

    At one point he is critical of flexible teaching methods then later suggests our classrooms and schools aren’t flexible enough.

    He also goes the full IPA on Aboriginals when talking about our history.

    It’s a real disjointed piece that doesn’t attempt to flesh out any of his points in any way.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/child-led-learning-has-dragged-australia-down-20180425-p4zbmb.html

    Kevin Donnelly is a right wing cultural warrior. Nothing he says on education should be taken remotely seriously and it is disappointing, but not surprising, to see him being paraded yet again in the MSM as some sort of expert.

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