Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

A fortnight on from the Malcolm Turnbull’s unfortunate Newspoll milestone, Newspoll itself suggests the embarrassment has done him little harm.

The latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead down from 53-47 to 51-49, which is the Coalition’s best result since the start of what is now Malcolm Turnbull’s run of 31 successive Newspoll defeats. This doesn’t reflect much activity on the primary vote, on which the Coalition and Labor are both steady at 38% and 37%, with the Greens down one to 9% and One Nation steady on 7%.

There is also encouragement for Malcolm Turnbull on leadership ratings, with his approval up four to 36% and disapproval down four to 53%, although Bill Shorten also improves by two on approval to 34% and three on disapproval to 53%. Turnbull maintains only a very modest lead as preferred prime minister, of 38-35, out from 38-36 last time. The poll also finds strong support for a reduction in immigration levels, with 56% rating the present level too high, 28% about right, and only 10% too low.

A point that should be noted about the Coalition’s apparent improvement in Newspoll is that at least part of it would seem to be down to an adjustment in their preference allocations, from a model based purely on results from the 2016 election to one which gives the Coalition a stronger flow of One Nation preferences, presumably based on the experience of the Queensland and Western Australian state elections. The chart below compares the published two-party results from Newspoll with how the raw primary numbers convert using a) a 50-50 split in One Nation preferences, as they were in 2016; and b) a 60-40 split in the Coalition’s favour, which seems more likely based on state election experience.

It will be noted that Newspoll (the grey line) closely tracked the 50-50 model (the blue line) until December last year, when it snapped to the 60-40 model (the orange line). Also noteworthy is the overshoot of the grey line for the very latest result, which reflects the fact that the Coalition may have been a little lucky with rounding this week. As Kevin Bonham notes, a calculation from the published, rounded primary vote totals using the 50-50 preferences model yields a 52.4-47.6 lead for Labor – a result that would have generated considerably less buzz than this, the “best Coalition result in 18 months”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

547 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 11
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  1. Alot of talk here about dividend imputation and the royal commission, but doesn’t seem to be any mention of the progress towards a deal on the NEG? The coverage has been universally favourable and presented as our last great hope for energy aka power prices, a huge everyday issue. If the final deal gets signed with the Labor premiers then I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bounce so large it put the LNP ahead in Newspoll temporarily. Conversely, I’d expect to see this entire bump collapse back to 47-53 or worse if Frydenberg refuses to compromise with the states and the Monkey Pod get their way.

  2. To add to my thoughts above, the massive anti-climax after Newspoll #30 has probably helped to create an illusion of control surrounding Turnbull, where before it was doom and inevitability. Hopefully it won’t take long for that to again be shattered.

    Now that we’re officially out of Newspoll #30 territory, must be time for a sweep update?

  3. Labor is ahead, it will remain ahead two party preferred, the budget will need to surpass all expectations to alter the underlying trends.
    If the LNP present the business tax cuts as expected and the voters fall into step with the nonsensical rationale associated these cuts, then the voters suffer the consequences. It wont happen.
    Labor will be the next government, Shorten the PM, with stagnant wages, house prices and unemployment levels the factors which will make or break the success of Shorten and Labor.
    With any luck, the remaining Howard second tier performers dominating the current LNP will grab their bag of money and bolt and we will all move on.
    Ridding Australia of unregulated, untethered greed and unfairness will be a masive task for whoever is charged with the task of governing a nation lacking contentent and integrity. The present mob of LNP aspirationals have displayed their inability to even attempt to govern for all. The task therefore defaults to Labor after the next election.
    Australians have scant regard for the types that present themselves as politicians in recent times but perhaps things will change. We can only hope.

  4. This announcement of a 51/49 Newspoll should have been accompanied by Beyond Blue type warnings.

    Deeply disturbing to me that such a rabble of a government can be at this level of competitiveness. I know; one poll, MOE, etc.

  5. bemused says:
    Sunday, April 22, 2018 at 9:46 pm

    …”Impact of Banking RC will not have taken effect yet.
    So what caused the dip for Labor?”…

    …
    They’re giving 3 of 7 One Nation votes to Labor, and about 6 of 9 Green votes.
    Both of those calculations are incorrect.

  6. I wonder what will be the effect on the Monkey Pod (or Monash Group) with this latest newspoll result?

    It is unlikely that they will give up their attempted destabilisation of MT, and it may push them to redoubled efforts.

    I expect many more damaging leaks about MT and his supporters.

    We have the ‘no sitting of parliament’ effect partly to blame for the better newspoll result for the LNP as well.

  7. Morning all. Regardless of what the Murdoch Forum thinks, the Liberal vote will get few favours as long as prominent ministers and ex ministers behave like this.

    Kelly O’Dwyer (“responsible minister”) refuses to admit she is wrong on RC. This interview should be archived to torture Liberal voters for their error.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-22/kelly-odwyer-on-banking-royal-commission/9685242

    Barnaby Joyce wants to water down the rules on staff conflicts, having been let off being punished for breaking them. He is shameless.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-23/barnaby-joyce-calls-for-partners-to-work-in-parliament/9685848

    I think Morrison raised the average IQ of cabinet when he brought that lump of coal in.

  8. Quite apart from the arrogance and self interest in Joyce’s demand, it is also false. Joyce said “And we should be allowing partners, as much as possible, to be there as well.”

    There are already generous allowances available to have families in Canberra. Barnaby just wants more money now that he is on “only” $200k.

  9. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Turnbull has admitted making a political mistake in rejecting a royal commission into the banks for more than 18 months so why did they throw Kelly under the bus?
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/malcolm-turnbull-admits-political-mistake-on-bank-royal-commission-20180423-p4zb2x.html
    Jess Irvine writes that the Royal Commission reveals need for tougher corporate cop. She analogises the exposed transgressions very nicely.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/royal-commission-reveals-need-for-tougher-corporate-cop-20180422-p4zb02.html
    But Alan Fels says Justice Hayne needs to come up with something more radical than jail terms in his royal commission recommendations. He says a structural solution is the only way. A ban on commissions should also be on the list he suggests.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/all-eyes-on-kenneth-hayne-after-shocking-revelations-at-banking-inquiry-20180422-p4zb0k.html
    Adele Ferguson agrees and says for an industry fond of acronyms, a new abbreviation has some merit for the organisations, regulator and legislators to consider: SOPA, the separation of product and advice.
    https://outline.com/wSfjLB
    The performance of Clayton Utz in the AMP issue will be interesting to watch as it unfolds further. And it may not be getting much more work from the government in the near future.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/asic-benches-top-amp-lawyer-as-clayton-utz-hits-back-over-report-20180422-p4zb19.html
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/04/22/clayton-utz-government-contracts-royal-commission/
    A former Westpac financial planner castigated at the Hayne royal commission for ripping off clients claims he has been made a scapegoat by the bank, which “squeezed” him to produce revenue while slashing support staff. He may well have a point. Two sayings spring to mind – We are what we measure” and “What interests my boss FASCINATES me!”.
    https://www.outline.com/RWhGkF
    Amy Remeikis reports that Labor has demanded the government establish a compensation scheme for victims of banking misconduct, as Turnbull government ministers struggle to deal with the fallout of the royal commission’s revelations after just two weeks of hearings.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/23/banking-royal-commission-labor-asks-turnbull-for-compensation-scheme
    The UK is at the centre of global corruption: shell companies that launder dirty money can be set up with ease. But when a whistleblower showed just how easy it is, he faced the full force of the law
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/22/the-sunday-essay-britain-headquarters-of-fraud
    Could this be what’s behind the Newspoll numbers?
    https://outline.com/nLMuB2
    Backbench Barnaby reckons bonking in Canberra should be made easier.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-s-insane-partners-of-mps-can-t-work-for-them-says-barnaby-joyce-20180422-p4zb2o.html
    SOUTH Australia is poised to become the nation’s fastest-growing economy this financial year, as it racks up its best growth since before the global financial crisis, according to a report to be released today. Will Marshall claim the credit for it?
    https://outline.com/BmK2GR
    Who is to blame for the delays and cost blowout on Sydney’s light rail project?
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/21/sydneys-light-rail-chaos-who-is-to-blame-for-delays-and-cost-blowout
    Seven of the country’s largest investors in electricity and gas networks have banded together to voice their alarm at proposed changes to the regulatory system that they say will drive up energy prices for consumers and hamstring investment in the sector.
    https://outline.com/mTfUV8
    Homeopathy is quackery plain and simple, whatever the royal family says. Music to my ears!
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/22/homeopathy-quackery-plain-and-simple-whatever-royal-family-says
    Apartment owners who live in blocks with flammable cladding could witness a significant drop in property prices, NSW Labor has warned. Royal commission anyone?
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/homeowners-with-grenfell-like-cladding-could-face-price-drop-labor-warns-20180422-p4zb16.html
    Peter Martin says that Morrison is having the easiest budget to prepare for quite some time. Yes, revenue does matter!
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/tax-cuts-higher-wages-budget-raining-revenue-says-top-forecaster-20180422-p4zb0w.html
    Michael West writes that a phalanx of forty lawyers will parade into a Sydney courtroom this morning to spar over the scraps of electronics retailer Dick Smith. The damage of a corporate collapse – the hit to creditors, shareholders and taxpayers – will be on display.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/dick-smith-disaster-turns-legal-circus-amid-bank-contortions/
    Urban Wronski this week headlines with “Hockey golfs with Mafia Don Trump while our banks reveal endemic corruption”.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2018/04/22/hockey-golfs-with-mafia-don-trump-while-our-banks-reveal-endemic-corruption/
    Despite a disastrous last month the underlying business of Facebook remains unscathed.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/the-disconnect-beneath-facebook-s-month-from-hell-20180421-p4zayp.html
    Jodi Lightfoot says that Concetta Fierravanti-Wells is sprouting BS over why Australian aid is as low as it has become.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australians-are-more-generous-than-their-government-20180420-p4zasd.html
    The causes of paedophilia and child sexual abuse are more complex than the public believes.
    https://theconversation.com/the-causes-of-paedophilia-and-child-sexual-abuse-are-more-complex-than-the-public-believes-94915
    Prince Charles is regarded as the heir to the British throne, however Prince Edward may be the one to claim it, writes history editor Dr Glenn Davies.
    https://independentaustralia.net/australia/australia-display/the-queens-real-birthday–time-to-talk-succession-planning,11421
    Amanda Vanstone defends our stance on border protection.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/think-we-re-tough-on-refugees-that-s-fake-news-20180420-p4zatw.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe and the Running of the Banks.

    Mark David has the government staying on message.

    Two good ones from Peter Broelman.


    Good work from Alan Moir.

    Jon Kudelka wasn’t impressed by O’Bigmouth’s Insiders interrview.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/ab1b47348da4664648c3de96390043fd
    More in here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-april-23-2018-20180422-h0z3pr.html

  10. I suspect LNP are getting a sympathy vote, some people will say they like Turnbull/LNP because they want stable government. Such votes will not be sustained to the election because its the expected transition point, and the instability is coming from within the LNP itself.
    Voting for stability is not a vote against Labor.

  11. In the next clash over the commission, Mr Shorten has issued a letter asking for compensation to be included in the inquiry’s terms of reference, in a move revealed in the media three days ago.

    Mr Turnbull dismissed that request by noting the issue was already covered by the terms of reference.
    “He wrote to you actually, he always gives his letters to the media first and he sends me a copy of them,” Mr Turnbull told journalists at the press conference.

    “In this letter he says the royal commission should pay attention to the importance of recompense and ensuring that customers who’ve had the wrong thing done are properly recompensed.

    “You know what? That is a good suggestion, but it’s already in the terms of reference. So I think what Bill should do is he should read the terms of reference.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/malcolm-turnbull-admits-political-mistake-on-bank-royal-commission-20180423-p4zb2x.html

  12. I am not happy about this one point shift to the L/NP. What does it take to break through the shell of ignorance encasing the cerebral cortex of voters in this country? It seems they are still operating from the lower primitive brain of ‘Me fed, grunt, me happy, grunt.’

  13. Could this be one of the reasons for the ‘good’ poll?
    Voters are suffering from overcrowded roads, lack of housing, unemployment… They may easily be encouraged to blame migration.

  14. Sorry, quote needed.

    An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian has revealed that 56 per cent of Australian voters believe the existing immigration cap of 190,000 a year is too high, 28 per cent think it is at the right level and 10 per cent consider it too low.

  15. equal or not? @ #89 Sunday, April 22nd, 2018 – 11:29 pm

    C@tmomma

    “Hilarious, huh?
    Like I said, it’s people like you who like nothing more than seeing Labor fail to take government off the Coalition. You can continue to make your asinine comments about them that way.”
    ——-

    My “hilarious” was about the irony if Labor lost the elections due to the decline in Green preferrences, given the anti-green obsessives on here who blame all Labor’s political misfortunes on the Greens.

    This obvioously went over your head.

    I think the LNP is bad, corrupt and evil. i will never support them.

    I vote Labor because it is only bad and corrupt.

    (I actually don’t much like the Greens but some of their policies are certainly more better and leftist of Labor).

    Though after the last two appalling Labor regimes, who knows!!!.

    I hope that reassures you. 🙂

    Yes. It does. 🙂 Thank you for the explanation. 🙂

  16. Lovey

    You keep missing the point. If Labor’s measures won’t raise any money, then it hurts nobody and thus loses no votes (from a demographic which, broadly speaking, doesn’t vote Labor anyway).

    If it does raise money – and you seem to be the only person on the planet suggesting it won’t, you’re welcome to provide links to experts saying otherwise – than Labor has money to spend on voters who are less intransigent.

    Either way, it doesn’t look like a vote loser (perhaps in the short term, whilst people get their head around it).

  17. Morning all and thanks BK for today’s reading and viewing.

    O’Dwyer did a very poor job of explaining why large corporates like the banks deserve tax cuts, and here’s further reason why they don’t.

    Ask yourself this — when was the last time a major corporation or executive was hauled before the courts? If you’re having trouble coming up with an answer, you’re in good company.

    In the past decade, our banks have been responsible for multiple breaches of the Corporations Act.

    They’ve admitted to rigging interest rate and foreign exchange markets. They’ve repeatedly stolen from their customers. They’ve happily charged premiums and then refused payments to legitimate insurance claimants.

    Since the financial crisis, they have forked out more than $1 billion in fines and compensation for their misdeeds. But not one senior banking executive has faced a court room for any of this.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-23/banking-royal-commission-how-asic-went-mia/9685792

  18. Katharine Murphy‏Verified account @murpharoo · 5m5 minutes ago

    Voters aren’t interested in whether or not there’s been a political miscalculation. They are interested in whether or not, as a government, you can determine right from wrong #auspol

  19. Jay 2GBinc think Shorten economic policy would be a disaster but think we have to experience it for the long term good.

  20. Mike Carlton‏ @MikeCarlton01 · 36m36 minutes ago

    The Australian Securities and Investment Commission – the nation’s watch dog.

  21. lizzie
    They must have used a very high shutter speed. The photo managed to capture the watch dog with it’s eyes open.

  22. ABC News‏Verified account @abcnews

    “We should be allowing partners, as much as possible, to be there as well. Otherwise you have this dichotomy, this dysfunctional dichotomy where you have one life in Canberra, another life at home,” @Barnaby_Joyce tells @PatsKarvelas.

    Is Barnaby pleading for his future, or excusing his past?

  24. Absence of Empathy says:
    Monday, April 23, 2018 at 4:26 am
    bemused says:
    Sunday, April 22, 2018 at 9:46 pm

    …”Impact of Banking RC will not have taken effect yet.
    So what caused the dip for Labor?”…

    …
    They’re giving 3 of 7 One Nation votes to Labor, and about 6 of 9 Green votes.
    Both of those calculations are incorrect.

    The Labor share of the ON vote is likely to be lower than 3/7. 6/9 G prefs is about right.

    There are also “Other” prefs. Maybe run about 5/5…

  25. Malcolm Turnbull says in hindsight it would have been better for the Government to have set up a banking royal commission two years ago.

    Mr Turnbull and his senior colleagues have spent the past two years arguing against a royal commission into the financial sector, although some of his backbenchers were campaigning vigorously for a royal commission.

    The PM finally called a royal commission late last year and shocking revelations have emerged as it has been taking evidence.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-23/banking-royal-commission-shouldve-been-called-sooner:-pm/9686596

    So much for O’Dwyer’s assertions the delay in calling for the RC was Labor’s fault.

  26. Good Morning

    People on twitter are questioning the validity of Newspoll suggesting Murdoch is manipulating it.

    Though I would not put it past Murdoch I don’t think this is the case.

    I only note this as to how the media coverage boosting the LNP is reducing trust in institutions by association.

    Until the Press Gallery starts really understanding how much they are reducing their credibility day after day with their coverage that trust is going to continue to plummet.

  27. Not sure that the one nation vote in State elections will be the same in federal election when the Libs will be fielding Mr Harbourside Mansion, the Tones slayer.

  28. I was thinking of ASIC as a friendly Labrador

    Sadly the issue with ASIC isn’t that it’s eyes were open or closed, but that it is just so friendly – to whoever it is supposed to regulate.

  29. Note not a mention of this or the Windrush scandal in our local media.
    Despite the Windrush scandal being huge and a backdrop to the Commonwealth meeting.
    Diane Abbott @HackneyAbbott
    So Guardian reveals that @AmberRuddHR diverted money from crime-fighting to deport more migrants, only to see violent crime soar on our streets and #Windrush generation deported in ‘error”. The ‘hostile environment’ just got more sinister than ever

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/20/amber-rudd-boasted-harsher-immigration-strategy-leak-reveals

  30. I’m not fussed by this poll, which really looks like business as usual, but —

    Malcolm’s major problem has been the fact he hasn’t stood up to the RWNJs in his party.

    You can imagine someone who is inclined to vote ‘old style’ Liberal being reluctant to vote for a party when it looks like that will empower the likes of Joyce and Abbott.

    Both of these men are looking increasingly irrelevant.

    So perhaps there are voters out there who are willing to reconsider voting Liberal.

  31. Turnbull really does have a lot to answer for!

    WA is at risk of becoming a National Broadband Network “backwater” as new rollout data shows that homes in just two areas in the State — Subiaco and Ellenbrook — will be captured in the project’s latest technology upgrade.

    Analysis of the NBN’s rollout maps by industry experts suggests Subiaco is the only WA area to be added to the latest NBN upgrade.

    But, nationally, the upgrade project has earmarked 160 extra suburbs for the switch to faster fibre-to-the-kerb technology. WA is expected to get just under 8000 of the additional 440,000 fibre-to-the-kerb connections offered nationally — less than 2 per cent.

    https://thewest.com.au/technology/nbn/subiaco-and-ellenbrook-only-suburbs-in-wa-to-get-latest-nbn-upgrades-ng-b88813582z

  32. Zoomster

    As always is it a trend? The Newscorpse mob are trying to make it so by calling it a bounce in the polls.

    Essential should give us some idea if its trend or outlier under MOE.

  33. lizzie @ #122 Monday, April 23rd, 2018 – 6:23 am

    ABC News‏Verified account @abcnews

    “We should be allowing partners, as much as possible, to be there as well. Otherwise you have this dichotomy, this dysfunctional dichotomy where you have one life in Canberra, another life at home,” @Barnaby_Joyce tells @PatsKarvelas.

    Is Barnaby pleading for his future, or excusing his past?

    Barnaby is 100% right about the toxic impact of political life on the families of politicians.

    I spend 5 years pre-children doing FIFO. Most (90%) of the workforce for my current employer work FIFO. I see firsthand how destructive FIFO is on family life first hand.

  35. grimace

    So nepotism is in?

    Its not that hard for families to stay with politicians in Canberra if a politician is going to spend years in Canberra then the family should plan for it.

    I don’t like US politics much but that is one area they have got it right. Have the family of the politician be with the politician.

    No excuse for nepotism for politicians.

  36. Zoomster

    I was kind of agreeing with you but making the point that its the media boost that might make a trend.

    Sorry that you thought I was saying you were “fussed”.

  39. Zoomster as I said last night this poll shows slight movement and rounding. Also there are people out there who will vote Liberal regardless of leadership and performance. Roughly 30-35% of the population.

  40. In recent years, Labor have been getting 80-83% of Green preferences. Why would one Green voter in three preference the Climate Deniers, Enironmental Vandals and Coal Fetishist Coalition? It’s a big enough mystery that one in six do.

    As for One Nation votes, in 2016, the One Nation vote was about 4.3%, splitting about 55-45 to the Coalition. In the latest poll the One Nation vote is 7%. I am sure that the Coalition are working furiously in the background to harvest this vote, either by persuading them to vote Coalition or at least get their preferences. Even 4-3 to the Coalition is fairly even.

    So we have Labor 37, Coalition 38, Green 9, One Nation 7 and ‘Somebody else’ 9.

    I think that Labour would pick up about 7.5 from the Greens, but maybe only 2/7 from One nation. If we split “Somebody else” 50-50, that gives Labor a 2PP lead of 51-49. Using a 3/7 split for One Nation gives 52-48.

  41. Kevin Bonham tweets
    Published 2PP 51-49 to Labor; these numbers would normally give c. 52.4 to ALP by 2016 preferences. As well as preference methods shifts, rounding can contribute to differences. #Newspoll https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes/status/988023963623178241

    I’ve come up with a better idea of dealing with what #Newspoll is doing with its preferences now. Methods page updated again at http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2016/09/federal-2pp-aggregate-methods-45th.html This #Newspoll I aggregate as 52.1 by 2016 prefs, 51.6 with historic One Nation adjustment.

  42. “I’m not fussed by this poll, which really looks like business as usual, ”

    Agreed. Especially when you take into account that the Libs always seem to do better when parliament is not sitting and Malcolm is out of the country. Can not be complacent but i’m not expecting anything meaningful interms of change till a couple of weeks after the Budget at soonest.

  43. Steve777 says:
    Monday, April 23, 2018 at 8:55 am

    In recent years, Labor have been getting 80-83% of Green preferences. Why would one Green voter in three preference the Climate Deniers, Enironmental Vandals and Coal Fetishist Coalition? It’s a big enough mystery that one in six do.

    Considering the persistence of anti-Labor campaigning by the Gs it’s a wonder their prefs go to Labor at all.

  44. Bug1 – Interesting comment. And I wonder how many voters are interpreting the “preferred PM” question as “Do you want a change of PM?”

  45. For something to make you laugh 😆

    You Had One Job@_youhadonejob1
    10h10 hours ago

    I don’t know who this dog is or why he is banned from this park but he certainly looks like a lot of fun.

    :large

  46. It was prudent for Newspoll to hold off on their methodology change until after 30 Newspolls.

    However, it is irresponsible journalism to talk about the change from result A using methodology A to result B using methodology B as a ‘bounce’ or ‘swing’ or anything similar.

    Realistically, what pollsters should do is run and report equally both methodologies for 2 consecutive polls (Headline “Newspoll, 52.4 to Labor under prior methodology, 51 under new methodology”). Then, depending on why you think your preference flow assumption was wrong, potentially go back and edit (leaving the originals archived somewhere) Newspolls as far back as you think the assumption was incorrect.

  47. Labor should come out all barrels blazing about self regulation. We saw with the GFC what results we get the Banking RC confirms it.

    Privatisation is one of the hallmarks of the self regulation small government mob.

    Beat the public over the head with the Banking RC on why its core LNP politics that is the reason for the rejection for so long of calling the Banking RC.

    I do see some of this is occurring from Labor people on twitter.
    So its good to see that Labor does get this. Neo liberalism is dead and Labor has to call it out.

  49. Steve777 @ #138 Monday, April 23rd, 2018 – 8:55 am

    In recent years, Labor have been getting 80-83% of Green preferences. Why would one Green voter in three preference the Climate Deniers, Enironmental Vandals and Coal Fetishist Coalition? It’s a big enough mystery that one in six do.

    As for One Nation votes, in 2016, the One Nation vote was about 4.3%, splitting about 55-45 to the Coalition. In the latest poll the One Nation vote is 7%. I am sure that the Coalition are working furiously in the background to harvest this vote, either by persuading them to vote Coalition or at least get their preferences. Even 4-3 to the Coalition is fairly even.

    So we have Labor 37, Coalition 38, Green 9, One Nation 7 and ‘Somebody else’ 9.

    I think that Labour would pick up about 7.5 from the Greens, but maybe only 2/7 from One nation. If we split “Somebody else” 50-50, that gives Labor a 2PP lead of 51-49. Using a 3/7 split for One Nation gives 52-48.

    Steve

    I think you are absolutely right about the Green vote and labour can expect 80-85% of it. It is pretty solid.

    However the One Nation and Other are much more fluid and predictions certain to be wrong.

    I think another populist party could emerge

  50. “Considering the persistence of anti-Labor campaigning by the Gs it’s a wonder their prefs go to Labor at all.”

    So, what you have just stated is:

    1) If A then not B.
    2) B = True.

    You would think you would use 1 and 2 to question your hypothesis that A = true.

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